29

Esther waited until she was miked and the sound check completed to say, “Okay, explain what you’re doing here.”

Suzie used the mirror in her powder compact to check her reflection. “There’s been some positive feedback from New York.” She clicked the compact shut. “Same response to our own segment. We fed it to our affiliates, an action that normally receives little more than a yawn and an automatic reply. Today, they asked for more. So here I am.”

They were seated on two stools Jasmine’s crew had supplied. The segment was being shot at the back of the trading room floor. Esther had not asked permission because Jason was away and nobody else seemed to care. The traders were too busy fuming.

Suzie ignored the surrounding clamor and said, “I think it will add to the moment if I use a handheld microphone. The one on your lapel will actually pick up your responses, but when I turn the handheld your way, it offers a sense of action and intensity. Also, the sound guy can up the level just slightly to pick up a bit of the background noise.”

“Whatever you say.” Esther could see the traders pretending not to watch as the cameraman fussed with his three portable lights. Suzie’s harried assistant had fielded three calls from the station director, reminding them that the tape was to be fed into the market watch.

Esther said, “I envy you your calm.”

Suzie had undergone a distinct change since that morning. She treated Esther as an ally now. She offered a catlike smile, all teeth and sharp eyes. “It’s a veneer. I paint it on before I go to work, peel it off every evening. Underneath I’m a bundle of nerves.”

“I don’t believe that for a minute.”

“There’s more. Talmadge’s communications group owns radio stations throughout the Southeast. They want to try us out for a morning talk show.” When Esther did not reply, Suzie added, “We’re talking possible syndication.”

The sense of arriving at an unseen juncture suddenly crystallized. Embedded in the carpet at Esther’s feet was a split in her future path. One course flew further and further away from everything she had strived for—the bank and the position and the safety. Sitting here on the trading room floor, getting ready to declare her warnings over the air was merely the next step.

Suzie scanned the room. “Quite a day. I woke up thinking you were the greatest threat to my career. Now I’m wondering if you might be my biggest break.”

“I’m glad for you,” Esther said weakly.

The cameraman studied them through his viewfinder, then straightened and announced, “Ready to roll.”

“So, Esther Larsen, at the beginning of this morning’s broadcast you mentioned there were three issues of primary concern. Together they could push us into the next economic downturn. This morning we discussed the role China might play. What is the second factor?”

Esther could see herself and Suzie on the monitor positioned to Suzie’s right. The traders behind them added to the sense of electric tension. All the faces visible on the screen were bleak, angry. They did not speak to one another. They barked. It was perfect.

“We call it the point of inflection,” Esther said. “This refers to the moment when the markets change direction.”

Suzie drew the mike back. “You’re not talking about a temporary downturn?”

“No, this is the third longest bull market in history. The driving force has been cheap money. Low interest rates have meant people and companies with cash have searched desperately for any investment that offers them a potential return. As a result, shares of many companies that have yet to make a profit have been pushed to absurd valuations purely on the basis of conjecture and rumor. Speculative investment has never been at such a high level. One-third of the companies in the Russell 2000 Stock Index do not earn any profits. This is the highest percentage on record outside of a serious depression.”

Once more Esther had the sense of Suzie moving into sync. The woman was sharp, perceptive, and she lived and breathed the markets. Which meant she could draw back the mike and make the comment Esther was hoping to hear. “These same investors have been driving up other markets as well.”

“Exactly. Again, we are talking about a global event. Because the developing world has shown a faster growth rate, investors have poured in cash, shooting markets around the globe into the stratosphere.”

“So walk us through what this might mean.”

“There is no might. The risk is not just possible, it is imminent.”

Suzie merely smiled. The professional. Standing at a distance. Letting the audience make up its own mind. “What does this mean for the average American investor, Ms. Larsen?”

“Right now, today, the developing world is in decline. The major economic driver behind the world’s recovery from the 2008 recession is slowing. The entire emerging-markets domain, with the single exception of India, is either in recession or decelerating. Russia, Indonesia, Turkey, China, Brazil. These same investors who piled in when the numbers looked good are frantic to get out. That means they’re awash with cash and don’t have any reliable place to put the money.”

Suzie started to respond, but her attention was caught by Esther’s team gathered behind the camera. At the outset they had smiled hugely, and Jasmine had given Esther two thumbs-up. But they weren’t smiling now. Their boss was giving voice to very real concerns. They might not follow the global trends as closely as she did, but they were smart and market savvy. They shared her worries.

The cameraman said softly, “Rolling.”

Suzie said, “Which means the markets here in the United States risk heightened instability.”

“Correct. Financial institutions are hunting urgently for any investment possibility that offers a core return and a measurable risk. But where they invest is not driven by corporate growth or predicted returns. It is speculative investment. This results in huge swings . . .”

Esther’s mind froze on a thought so bizarre, so outrageous, she was terrified it might be true.

Suzie pressed, “You were saying, this results in . . . ?”

“Contagion,” Esther said quietly.

“What does that term signify?”

“When panic grips the market, contagion sets in.” Esther’s gaze locked on Jasmine. The woman’s green eyes held the same dread Esther felt. “Everything goes down. Good and bad assets are caught in a spiral.”

“Just like in 2008,” Suzie said slowly.

“No, not like that. At the onset of the last recession, the US government propped up the economy. This time, the Fed is out of ammunition.” Esther found it difficult to swallow. “Interest rates are near zero. Our money cannot be made any cheaper.”

Suzie moved even slower this time, pulling the mike over, speaking the words, playing the tension. “What happens, Esther?”

“Deflation,” she answered. “Depression. Chaos. That is, unless we do something to rein in the financial institutions. And fast.”