The question of whether white voters discriminate against black candidates is still an open one. Observational work has been
suggestive, but it suffers from the inability to isolate candidate race, leaving open the possibility that confounding variables are driving the (lack of) results. We briefly review two of the best examples of observational work
on this question. As we show, their limitations yield an important opportunity for experimental work to make a contribution.
We argue, however, that experiments on racial discrimination in the voting booth have not yet taken full advantage of this
opportunity. In particular, imprecision in the experimental design has made it difficult to rule out the possibility of alternative
explanations. We therefore recommend that future work pay increased attention to this issue, and we also argue that, given
the mixed results, scholars should turn from the question of whether white racism hurts black candidates to begin identifying
conditions under which prejudice hurts the chances of black candidates.
Highton
(
2004) examines U.S. House elections in 1996 and 1998. Using exit polls conducted by the
Voter News Service, he measures discrimination as the difference
between white support for white candidates and white support for black candidates, controlling for such factors as incumbency,
funding, experience, and demographic characteristics. Highton finds no difference between white support for white and black
candidates and on that basis determines that white voters showed no racial bias in these elections.
However, because Highton (
2004) uses exit poll data, he lacks a measure of racial attitudes. As a result, he cannot assess whether prejudice is tied to
vote choice. To be sure, by itself this may not be much of a problem, as Highton directly examines whether there is a racial
double standard. But the process that determines candidate race may be endogenous to the vote choice decision. For example,
consider the hypothetical case of black political figure A who decides to run for office. His personality is no more appealing
than is the norm for politicians, so he loses the primary due to racial discrimination – that is, he is not sufficiently exceptional
to overcome the racial bias of some white voters. He therefore is not considered in Highton's analysis because Highton counts
that contest as one without a black candidate. Now consider the hypothetical case of black political figure B who has an exceptionally
appealing personality. He wins the primary because his outstanding personality overwhelms the effect of prejudice. He now
counts as a black candidate in Highton's analysis. If this scenario is common, so that only black candidates who are exceptional
among politicians make it through the primary and to the general House election, then it is possible that discrimination does
hurt black candidates in House elections, but that such discrimination is not evident due to the effects of other candidate
characteristics. If Highton had a measure of racial prejudice and found it to be uncorrelated with vote choice, then this
might mitigate the aforementioned concern, but he does not.
Furthermore, Highton (
2004) does not control for competitiveness of the contest; it could be that white voters are voting for black candidates simply
because they lack alternative viable options. Finally, he does not measure turnout, leaving open the possibility that white
discrimination operates through the failure to show up to the voting booth. Lacking a measure of racial attitudes, the ability
to assign candidate race, and control over such candidate characteristics as age, name recognition, ideological orientation,
and personality, Highton cannot rule out the possibility of confounding variables.
Citrin,
Green, and Sears (
1990) examine a case study of Democratic candidate
Tom Bradley's loss to Republican candidate
George Deukmejian in the 1982 gubernatorial contest in California. Unlike Highton (
2004), they have access to measures of racial attitudes, making use of data from polls conducted by the
Los Angeles Times and the Field Institute that were conducted among a statewide sample of white Californians. Importantly, however, Citrin
et al. do not simply measure the effect of racial attitudes on vote choice because they recognize that racial attitudes are
deeply implicated in policy attitudes. Racial attitudes might have an effect on voting, therefore, not due to the candidate's
race, but because voters might bring their racial attitudes to bear on their evaluations of the candidate's policy platform.
Citrin et al. therefore pursue the clever strategy of comparing the influence of racial attitudes on vote choice for Bradley
to the influence of racial attitudes on vote choice for other Democrats pursuing such state offices as lieutenant governor.
They find no additional effect of prejudice on vote choice for Bradley, and conclude that Bradley's race did not hurt him
among white voters.
As Citrin et al. (
1990) recognize, their attempt to control for all other relevant factors besides race is by necessity incomplete. Although other
candidates for state office may have shared membership in the Democratic Party with Bradley, they surely did not share the
exact same policy platform. Furthermore, Bradley's personality, experience, and name recognition were different. He was even
running for a different office. We would have increased confidence in the work of Citrin and his colleagues if their controls
for other candidate factors were less crude than simply having other white Democrats represent the counterfactual white Bradley.
Such is the potential for experiments – to control for
factors that observational studies cannot in order to be sure that any relationships (or lack thereof) between candidate race
and vote choice are not an artifact of some other relationship. Indeed, given that very few of the African American members
of the House of Representatives hail from majority-white districts, it seems plausible that greater control over candidate
characteristics might yield a finding of antiblack discrimination among whites.
Moskowitz
and Stroh (
1994), for example, presented their undergraduate experimental subjects with a realistic editorial, campaign brochure, and photo,
all describing a hypothetical candidate (although subjects were not told that the candidate was hypothetical). Subjects read
these materials and then evaluated the candidate. Subjects were randomly assigned to one of two groups wherein the descriptions
were equivalent in all respects except one – the race of the candidate. Because the race of the candidate was the only thing
that varied, Moskowitz and Stroh can be more confident than can Highton (
2004) or Citrin and his colleagues (
1990) that any difference between groups was a result of candidate race and thus has the potential to demonstrate stronger evidence
of a racial double standard. Experimental control also gives Moskowitz and Stroh the ability to assess the mechanism through
which prejudice affects the vote choice because they measure subjects’ perceptions of the candidate's policy positions and
personality characteristics. Indeed, Moskowitz and Stroh find that prejudiced white subjects discriminate against black candidates,
and that they do so by attributing to black candidates unfavorable character traits and policy positions with which they disagree.
Although Moskowitz and Stroh's (
1994) work overcomes some of the problems inherent in observational studies, they also encounter a unique set of limitations.
For example, the experimental context differed from an actual campaign environment in one potentially devastating way. Subjects
were asked questions about their racial attitudes just prior to being presented with material about the hypothetical candidates.
As a result, racial considerations may have been primed, causing subjects to bring their racial attitudes to bear on candidate
evaluations when they might not otherwise have done so. Because this characteristic of their experiment is artificial, it
could be that most of the time the race of the candidate does not influence their vote choice. Moskowitz and Stroh may have
identified that candidate race can matter under certain conditions, but it is not certain that those conditions occur in the
real world.
Terkildsen
(
1993) avoids some of the problems of artificiality in the design of her study. First, she measures racial attitudes in the post-test
and thus does not run the risk of priming racial attitudes just before asking subjects to evaluate candidates. Second, Terkildsen
uses an adult convenience sample selected for jury duty, decreasing generalizability concerns somewhat. However, Terkildsen's
analysis also shares a limitation with Moskowitz and Stroh's (
1994). Unlike in an actual election, in which voters typically choose between candidates, subjects were asked to evaluate the
candidate in isolation. This is a particularly important limitation, given that previous work suggests that stereotypes may
work differently when candidates are evaluated alone instead of in comparison to each other
(Riggle et al.
1998).
Sigelman et al. (
1995), in contrast, do ask subjects to choose between two candidates, one of whom is black in one condition but white in the other.
Using a convenience sample composed of adults selected for jury duty in the Tucson, Arizona area, the authors find no evidence
of race-based discrimination. The authors use a nine-cell design, and candidate A is identical across cells: a conservative
candidate whose race is unidentified. Candidate B varies by
ideology (conservative, moderate, or liberal) and by race (described by the experimenters as “Anglo,” “black,” or “Hispanic”).
Sigelman and her colleagues (1995) also claim to find evidence of an interaction effect between race and ideology, in which
racial minorities are perceived as more liberal than are white candidates. The authors manipulate ideology by changing the
content of each
candidate's speech; subjects are expected to infer the ideology of the candidates by reading their speeches. Unfortunately,
the content of the speech varies not only in the ideological principles espoused, but also in the highlighting of racial issues.
Whereas the conservative candidate argues that minorities “have become too dependent on government” and the liberal candidate
claims that minorities “have been victims of terrible discrimination in this country,” the moderate candidate does not mention
race at all. As a result, it is difficult to tell whether subjects evaluating the ideology of a given candidate were reacting
to the candidate's race, the ideological principles espoused in the candidate's speech, the extent to which racial issues
were highlighted in the speech, or, quite plausibly, interactions among the
three.
The experimental design employed by
Reeves (
1997) overcomes many of these problems. For example, to avoid potential unintended priming effects, racial attitudes are measured
six months prior to the implementation of the experiment. Furthermore, respondents, identified in a representative mail survey
of Detroit area residents, evaluate the candidates in a comparative context. Evaluations are based on realistic newspaper
articles describing a debate between two fictitious candidates. Finally, in a four-cell design, Reeves manipulates the race
of one of the candidates (black or white) and the issue area being debated (the environment or affirmative action). Thus,
his design allows him to directly examine the impact of highlighting racial issues.
Unfortunately, Reeves (
1997) only analyzes those subjects who choose to respond to his questionnaire, neglecting to consider the possibility that the
decision to respond is endogenous to the effect of the treatments. In his experiment, unlike with most survey experiments,
subjects receive a questionnaire by mail that they can read before determining whether they want to mail it back to the experimenter.
Exposure to the treatment, therefore, may have some impact on the decision to participate in the study, but Reeves does not
analyze whether response rates vary across experimental conditions.
Reeves (
1997) claims to find evidence of racial discrimination when the campaign issue is affirmative action, but what is actually evident
in the data is an increase in the number of white subjects who claim to be undecided. To be sure, Reeves finds that the distribution
of racial attitudes among these respondents suggests that they would probably not support a black candidate, but this argument
is only suggestive.
A somewhat more recent vintage of studies on the influence of racial prejudice in candidate selection focused more on indirect
effects. With these studies, the emphasis is on contests featuring two white candidates and the prospect that subtle
racial cues are employed to the disadvantage of one of the candidates. According to this literature, political candidates
in the post–Civil Rights era no longer make direct racial appeals to whites because such efforts would be repudiated by voters
across the political spectrum. Instead, covert references are made to race, leading whites to bring their latent antiblack
attitudes to bear on candidate preferences. This process has been dubbed “racial priming”
(Mendelberg
2001).
Whether political campaigns devise subtle racial cues in order to surreptitiously activate the racial views of the electorate
is a difficult issue to study. When voters bring their racial attitudes to bear on some voting decisions rather than others,
we cannot be sure using observational studies whether this occurred because of specific campaign tactics or some other unrelated
event. Experimental manipulation provides perhaps the only way to confidently evaluate this possibility, but, as we illustrate,
even here many questions remain unanswered.
Mendelberg (
2001) was among the first to examine this question by developing a series of experiments manipulating whether a fictitious gubernatorial
candidate's antiwelfare appeal was racially implicit (i.e., visual references to race but not verbal), explicit (i.e., visual
and verbal references to African Americans), or counterstereotypical (i.e., antiwhite rather than antiblack). Her subjects
are drawn from a random sample of New Jersey households. In addition to manipulating racial cues,
Mendelberg also manipulated whether participants were told that their views conformed with or violated societal norms on race.
She finds that concern with violating norms prevents explicit messages from activating antiblack attitudes with one caveat:
racially liberal subjects who are unconcerned when told that their views violate the norm are much more likely to support
the racially conservative candidate. This result suggests that further research needs to be done to explore exactly how concern
for norms moderates the effects of racial
priming.
Despite this support for the racial priming hypothesis, confirmed and replicated by
Valentino, Hutchings, and White (
2002), a debate has emerged in the literature regarding the influence of implicit and explicit racial appeals. Employing an experimental
design similar to Mendelberg's (
2001), but with a nationally representative sample treated over the Internet (
n = 6,300),
Huber and Lapinski (
2006) find that implicit appeals are not more effective than explicit messages in priming racial attitudes. In
Mendelberg's (
2008) response, she questions whether the treatment was delivered successfully and argues that, because subjects’ racial predispositions
were measured just prior to exposure to the experimental treatments, any differences in priming effects may have been neutralized.
Huber and Lapinski (
2008) reject these criticisms. More important for our purposes, however, is that the racial priming literature is vulnerable to
the charge that measuring racial attitudes immediately prior to or following the treatment may affect the results. When the
measurement occurs prior to treatment, researchers run the risk of dampening any priming effect due to “contamination” of
the control group. However, when measured after the treatment, the distribution of racial attitudes may be influenced by the
manipulation
(Linz
2009). Thus, it is not so much that liberals and conservatives are sorting themselves out more appropriately as a consequence
of exposure to an implicit racial appeal. Rather, the candidate preferences may remain firm and the racial attitudes may be
changing. Future work in this area should try to measure racial attitudes some considerable time prior to the treatment in
order to avoid this potential
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