Writing this book has felt like a pregnancy. I have been carrying more and more weight around with me and then, in one quick but painful rush, it popped out. But, as with every pregnancy, one cannot do it alone. I would like to thank first and foremost my editor, Craig Pearce, along with the entire team at Harriman House, all of whom have helped this project come to fruition – in a sense, they were the midwife that supported me through the process of giving birth. And like all midwives around the world, they deserve lots of praise for what they do. Thank you also to the great team at the Naval and Military Club in London, where most of this book was written. It was a great place to go to work and focus on the tasks at hand.
But as I said, this book did not come out of nothing and is the product of years of research and conversation with many people. I would especially like to thank two mentors of mine, Prof. Klaus Wellershoff and the late Andreas Höfert, who have taught me more about economics, investments and the art of critical thinking than anybody else. I owe them a lot of gratitude for the many discussions and support they have given me over the years. Furthermore, I want to thank the sons of Klaus Wellershoff, whose “reality hits you hard, bro” had to make it into this book. It was just too good to be missed.
Over the past two years, I have spoken to many people who have encouraged me to write this book and helped me refine its contents. It all started with a series of short papers that I wrote for Fidante Partners which, after being deemed too ‘risky’ for the business, were never published. As I told my wonderful boss, Cathy Hales, and my colleague, Gihan Ismail, at the time, even though it won’t be published with a Fidante brand, it might still lead to something else. Thank you both for giving me the leeway to spin my crazy ideas and letting me push the envelope. And thank you for all the support and encouragement you have given me, no matter where my crazy ideas led.
There is also a whole list of people who provided discussion, invaluable feedback on draft versions of this book or input to the original papers on which it is based: Brett Arends, Dewi John, Tim Koroknay, Sam Morris, Larry Siegel, Paolo Sironi, Jason Voss and Jason Zweig. Thank you all very much.
Finally, and most importantly, I want to thank my wife, Robin Miranda, who is my most enthusiastic supporter, my fiercest critic and always asks the right questions. Without her, none of this could have happened. This book is dedicated to her.