Index

• AIDS, false beliefs about sources and causes of, 228
• art, evidence in authentication of, 26, 187–196, 248n25
• astrology, as pseudo-science, 149
• atomic bomb, 163–164
• Austin, J. L., 90, 262n10
• authority, of experts and expertise, 158

• Ballantyne, Nathan, 162–163
• ballistics evidence, 168–170, 177–178, 180
• Barrett, Justice Amy Coney, 5, 9, 145, 242n7
• base rates, neglect of, 70
• Bayes, Thomas, 24
• Bayesian approaches to evidence, 24–29, 31–33, 182, 247nn20, 21
• Bentham, Jeremy, 244n16
• Berman, Judge Richard, 218
• big data, 92
• biases, in selecting, transmitting, and using evidence, 232–233
• Blackstone, William, 39, 179–180
• Blue Bus problem, 63–64. See also statistical evidence
• Bok, Sissela, 115
• Boleyn, Anne, 198
• Botticelli, Sandro, 187–193, 196
• Brady, Matthew, 141
• burden of proof: conjunction problem and, 251n7; decision theory and, 39–40; in criminal and civil trials, 35–43, 54; generally, 34–57; proof beyond a reasonable doubt, 35–36; proof by clear and convincing evidence, 38–39; proof by preponderance of the evidence, 36; qualifying adjectives as indicating, xi, 51–54, 56; quantifying, 35–36; and Scottish “not proven” verdict, 37; and Title IX university disciplinary proceedings, 37–42. See also sexual assaults, statistical significance
• Burr, Richard, 219
• Bush, George W., false beliefs about, 227

• Capitol, United States, January 2021 assault on, 89, 93, 135,137
• causation, evidence of, 255n32; probabilistic, 49, 255n32
• character, as evidence of behavior, 211–217
• chicken sexing, as expertise, 186–187
• circumstantial evidence. See evidence: circumstantial
• climate change: evidence of, 145–147, 229; expert judgments about, 152–154; expert opinions about policy about, 163–166
• cognitive consistency, common need for, 236
• cognitive dissonance, 236
• Cohan, George M, 83–86
• collective intelligence, 92–96, 156
• Collins case, 61–63
• confessions, as evidence, 248n25
• confirmation bias, 232
• conjunction problem. See burden of proof
• consensus, as evidence, 94, 145–146, 154–158, 161–162
• conspiracy theories, 21, 95, 160, 264n27
• Conway, Erik, 229
• Cosby, Bill, 261n25
• Covid-19: effectiveness of vaccines against, 19, 159, 245n10; evidence of drug effectiveness against, 2, 19–20, 241n3; public policy about, 2, 159, 166
• cross-examination, as method of testing veracity, 102–104

• Daubert criteria for expertise, 152, 168, 172–173, 190
• Disposition. See character
• DNA, 180–184

• ecological inference problem, 257n3
• epistemic distance, 200
• epistemic injustice, 275n10
• epistemic trespassing, 162–163
• Epstein, Jeffrey, 218
• evidence: as based on other evidence, 23–34; circumstantial, 22, 245n16; demand for, 7; and generalization, 30; inductive reasoning; law of, 9–10, 27; potential, 26–28; variable strength of, 21–22, 29, 127–128, 176, 246n16. See also Bayesian approaches to evidence
• experts and expertise: art authentication by, 26, 187–196; legal standard for, 119, 123; nonexpert evaluation of, 147–154, 162, 276n4; policy prescriptions of, 163–166; reliance on, as evidence, 241n2; scientific, 145–147, 159–160; as testimony, 146, 160, 186
• eyewitnesses: reliability of, 129–135; exonerations based on mistakes by, 129–132, 274n3

• facts: distinguished from policy, 2–4, 163–164; distinguished from value and valuation, 4, 8–9; evidence about, 2–4
• Farah, Martha, 124–125
• Fauci, Anthony, 166
• fingerprints, 167–168, 181, 194
• first-person accounts, 135–139
• Floyd, George, photographs of killing of, 143
• Ford, Christine Blasey, 126
• forensic evidence, National Research Council report on, 168, 170, 172, 281n4
• free proof, 243n16
• Fricker, Miranda, 107
• fundamental attribution error. See character

• Garfield, James, 198–199
• Gatecrasher Paradox, 64. See also statistical evidence
• generalization, 248n28
• generics, 248n28
• Gilbert, Lord Geoffrey, 243n15
• global warming. See climate change
• GMOs, 154–158, 231
• gossip. See rumor
• graphology, as pseudo-science, 171
• Greene, Marjorie Taylor, 235
• groupthink, 92–93, 156

• Haack, Susan, 32, 283n19
• Hacking, Ian, 17
• handwriting identification, 171–175, 178–179
• hearsay, 86–90; in the legal system, 88–89
• Hemings, Sally, 25, 226, 247n20
• Hepburn, Katherine, 155
• history: as based on testimony, 199; and historians, use of evidence by, 196–202; as sometimes based on specific rules, 200–201
• holism, 31–33, 249n33
• Holmes, Oliver Wendell,10, 94
• Holmes, Sherlock, 246n17
• Hook, Cayce, 124–125
• Hume, David, on is and ought, 4, 242n5

• inductive reasoning, 16–17; as probabilistic, 20; as risky, 17–18
• inference to the best explanation, 31–33; as related to abduction 249n33

• Janis, Irving, 92
• Jasanoff, Sheila, 230
• Jefferson, Thomas, 25, 226, 247n20
• junk science, 173, 177, 283n20

• Kant, Immanuel, 115
• Kavanaugh, Justice Brett, 126
• knowledge, philosophers’ conception of, 35, 250n2
• Kunda, Ziva, 228

• Laudan, Larry, 253n20, 274n9
• Leonardo da Vinci, 226, 229, 291n1
• Lewis, Anthony, 95
• lie-detection, 119–127, 150–151, 177
• lying, 98–104; changing definition of, 115–117. See also lie-detection; paltering

• marketplace of ideas, as collective intelligence, 94–95
• Marston, William Moulton, 119, 150–151
• Mason, Perry, 102–103
• McKenna, Judge Lawrence, 173–175, 195
• medicine, use of evidence in, 17–20, 45–46, 54, 60–61, 69, 71, 191, 223, 232–233
• Milgram, Stanley, 214
• Mill, John Stuart, 94
• Milton, John, 94
• motivated reasoning, 5–6, 228–234; “hard’ and “soft” versions of, 234–235
• Moynihan, Daniel Patrick, 3
• myside bias, 292n7. See also motivated reasoning

• neuroscience, and lie-detection, 122–125
• New York Times, controversy about 1619 Project of, 197

• oaths: as protection against lying, 98–102, 114; honor codes as forms of, 101
• Obama, Barack, false beliefs about birthplace of, 227–228
• Oreskes, Naomi, 229
• overvaluation of relevant evidence, 210–211

• Paltrow, Gwyneth, 185
• paltering, 117–119
• Pangloss, Dr. (and Panglossianism), 235–237
• past acts: legal system’s approach to, 206–211; relevance of to current determinations, 203–206, 220–222
• peer review, 281n10
• perjury, 99–100
• perspective: first-person (or insider), 137–139; and standpoint epistemology, 275n10
• photographs, 139–144; as evidence in court, 142; as mechanical testimony, 141; reliability as evidence, 139–141;
• phrenology, as pseudo-science, 148–153
• pit bulls, and class-based evidence of aggressiveness, 223
• polygraph, 119–121, 126, 150–151
• Popper, Karl, 127
• precautionary principle, 48–50, 155, 157
• Presley, Elvis, 1
• presumption of innocence, 182–183
• Pring-Wilson, Commonwealth vs., 215–217
• Prison Yard hypothetical, 64–66. See also statistical evidence
• probability: and Bayesian approaches, 24–25, 31–33. 247nn20, 21; and inductive reasoning, 16–17, 20; as central to all evidence, 15–16, 61, 68–69
• profiling, 75–78, 222–225
• propensity reasoning, 212–213. See also character

• QAnon. See conspiracy theories
• quarantines, 46

• Rakoff, Judge Jed, 169
• reference class problem, 257n2
• relevance, 30–33, 282n11
• reputation: as collective testimony, 91–97; as hearsay, 91
• rumor, as testimonial evidence, 91–97

• Sanders, Bernie, 203
• Sanders, Sarah, 203, 217, 220
• Schatz, Brian, 237–238
• sexual assaults: evidence of, 37–42, 72–75; victims, credibility of, 107–108
• Shiffrin, Seana, 115
• Simpson, O. J., 36–37
• situation, as contrasted with character (or traits), 213–215
• smoking, evidence of harm of, 229
• Sokal, Alan, 151
• Sontag, Susan, 140, 142
• statistical evidence, 61–72; and offense specification, 65–66, 72–75; and desire for individualized evidence, 66–68; and DNA evidence, 284nn30, 31; and reference class problem, 257n20
• statistical inference, 59–61, 72
• statistical sampling, 78–81; and the census, 78–80; and industrial quality control, 80–81; and political polling, 80
• statistical significance, 54–57
• stereotypes, 47, 106–109
• Stettheimer, Florine, 195
• Stielow, Charlie, 177–178
• Sunstein, Cass, 233
• Surowiecki, James, 91–93
• Szilard, Leo, 164

• testimony: calibration of, 105–110; as second- hand knowledge, 83; oral, 84–86; and trust, 85, 262n9. See also lying
• theory-laden observation, 32, 127–128, 232
• thick descriptions, 8–9
• Thorpe, Simon Brann, 141–142
• Titanic, sinking of, 198
• traits. See character
• Tribe, Laurence, 258n4
• Trump, Donald: 2020 presidential election, x, 21, 28–29, 51, 93, 116, 227, 235, 243n9, 246n17, 266n10; 2021 impeachment and trial, x, 43, 86–87, 134–135, 237
• Trump, Melania, 87–88
• Truth: epistemic injustice and, 108–109; evidence and, 23–24; preferences for, 6–7

• vaccination: alleged dangers of, 159–160, 162, 241n2, skepticism about, 159–160
• van Meegeren, Han, 26, 196
• Vermeer, Johannes, 26, 196

• Walton Kendall, 141
• Washington, George, 110, 198, 220
• Wigmore, John Henry, 76, 103, 107, 224
• Wisdom of Crowds, The, 91–93
• Wonder Woman, 119