Clausewitz argues that a balance of determination and ability to adapt to circumstances is essential to military genius.1 Cognitive bias, entrapment by Iraqi leaders, and loss aversion reinforced the Bush administration’s obstinacy and impeded their ability to learn and adapt. Although the Bush administration had developed metrics to assess progress, the most virulent, strategically damaging problems were intangible or difficult to measure. These included factors such as the political scrimmage for power, predatory sectarianism, and growing corruption. These frequently occurred along the seams of bureaucratic silos, so they were never accurately measured or considered in assessments of strategic risk. The absence of such considerations may have played a role in the willingness of the Bush administration to discount violence levels as strategically irrelevant.
Bush made a bold decision for the surge, but American public support for the war had deteriorated substantially from 2003 to 2007. Seventy-two percent of Americans surveyed by Pew in March 2003 believed that going to war in Iraq was the right decision. Twenty-two percent were opposed. By February 2005, opinions for and against were tied at 47 percent. By February 2008, despite positive results from the surge, opposition to the war grew to 54 percent. Only 38 percent remained supportive. Even though perceptions of how well the war was going improved from March 2007 to February 2008, a higher percentage of Americans still wanted to bring troops home as soon as possible rather than keep them in Iraq.2
War fatigue had set in among the American public and had become a divisive issue. During the 2008 presidential election, the vast majority of Democratic Party voters and 53 percent of Independents favored bringing troops home from Iraq, while large percentages of Republican voters wanted to keep them in. By contrast, 61 percent of Americans polled supported keeping forces in Afghanistan, including majorities in both parties and among Independents.3 Tapping into such sentiments, Democratic Party nominee Barack Obama campaigned on a promise to wind down the war in Iraq within sixteen months and to refocus American energy on the war in Afghanistan.4 Although the economy was by far the number one reason Americans voted as they did in 2008, the Iraq War was second.5 Obama won the presidency and made good on his promise to end the war. The last convoy of American forces left Iraq on December 18, 2011.6