When they exited the front doors of the hotel, Nir began to lead Nicole to a taxi.
“No, I want to walk,” she said.
“It’s five degrees. You’ll freeze! I’ll freeze.”
“Please, Nir. We’ll get to your office before it’s dark,” she slipped her arm in his and began walking. He followed along. “Besides, I need to stretch my legs. There was some creepy guy in the hotel gym this morning, so I shorted my workout.”
“Sounds lovely. Did you shoot him?”
Nicole chuckled. “No, I avoided the Tavor approach and ran away. Now, tell me—is Erdoğan really as mad as he seems? I mean, he’s got to just be posturing. He’d be crazy to come after Israel right now.”
They came to a corner and paused as Nir pressed a button for the crosswalk. “Unfortunately, I would have to disagree with you on both counts. I don’t believe he’s just posturing, and with most of our military resources pouring into Gaza, this may be the best time to come after us. And if he were to do that, I’m afraid of what might happen. We have no troops to send to Turkey. There is no option for conventional warfare. If it pops off with Turkey, it’ll be a very big pop. In fact, depending on how big he goes, it could be a nuclear pop.”
The light turned and they began walking again. “But I still don’t get it,” said Nicole. “Israel kills someone in your territory. Yell at them. Sanction them. Cut trade with them. But it sounds like he’s planning on some sort of military retaliation. That makes no sense.”
“You’re right, motek. It doesn’t. But that’s because you’re ignoring the other part of our prime minister’s threat. When we are trying to find a motive for any action, what is the first thing that we do?”
“We follow the money,” Nicole replied like she was reading from a script. “But what money was there with this Hamas guy other than exorbitant hotel bills?”
Nir pointed ahead to the left and asked, “Remember that place?”
Large lettering spelling out “Hoffy’s” stood over a doorway. Just below the English name were the Hebrew letters כשר, letting patrons know that the food inside was all kosher. The bright lights inside showed a long deli counter leading back to the restaurant where Nir had brought Nicole and Efraim less than a year ago.
“Hoffy’s!” exclaimed Nicole. “I didn’t realize this was where we were. Should we stop and get Mila a turkey bone?”
Mila Wooters was Nir’s office secretary and surrogate mom. She hated Hoffy’s, using the menu item called Turkey Bone as the prime example of why no one should ever eat there. As they watched, two Orthodox Jewish men walked out of the restaurant wearing long coats and wide-brimmed hats.
Pulling Nicole forward, Nir said, “Nah, I’m already in her doghouse. Don’t want to make it worse. So, back to Erdoğan. When our prime minister first challenged him, he said that if Turkey harbors Hamas leaders, we’ll do what?”
“Come and kill them?”
“Right. But think: What else did he threaten?” After Nicole remained silent, Nir answered his own question. “He said that we would cut our gas deal with them.”
“He did? I think I was too caught up in the first part because I knew that probably meant us.”
“Totally understandable. But the discovery of Mousa in Turkey and his subsequent elimination means that our prime minister is making good on his threats. The pipeline deal to get Israel’s natural gas to Europe that we were working on with Turkey and Cyprus will now belong only to Cyprus. Not only is this a financial disaster to a country that is currently one big financial disaster, but it defies the entire Turkish concept of mavi vatan.”
“You know, sometimes I think you throw out foreign phrases just to make me feel dumb,” Nicole said with a punch to his arm.
“What? Like when you call me a dwaas?”
Nicole laughed. “Well, if you’re acting the fool, you need to be called out as a fool.”
“True, true. Mavi vatan simply means ‘blue homeland.’ It’s a grand Turkish philosophy that says they own all the waters around them in the Black Sea, the Aegean Sea, and the eastern Mediterranean.”
“Well, that’s fair, isn’t it? Every country has territorial waters.”
“Yeah, but it’s a question of the extent of those territorial waters. Their idea of territorial waters has brought them into conflicts with Greece, Cyprus, and even Italy. So, picture this. They tell Greece, ‘Sure, the island of Crete is yours, but the water around Crete is ours.’”
“That could be a problem.”
“It is a problem. Still, Turkey is set on their mavi vatan, and they’ve even tested it out. About five years ago, they conducted some major naval exercises with over one hundred ships and twenty thousand soldiers throughout what they say are their waters. People swore and complained, but no one did anything about it. So, Erdoğan says, ‘See? They’re our waters.’”
Nicole slipped her arm out from Nir’s. “Hold that thought.” She hurried across the narrow street into a bakery, returning a few minutes later holding a pink box.
Nir narrowed his eyes and shook his head. He took the box from her so that she could slide her arm through his again. “If this is what I think it is, Mila’s going to flip.”
“She deserves it after putting up with you for so many years.”
They began walking again. “Back to mavi vatan,” said Nicole. “Turkey sees most of the eastern Mediterranean and Aegean Sea, and a good portion of the Black Sea, as theirs. So, if Israel skirts around their blue homeland with their pipeline, they lose a huge chunk of change.”
“But that’s the problem. Israel can’t skirt around the waters Turkey claims are theirs. Let me take a step back. There are a couple main focuses for mavi vatan. First, there is heavy militarization at home and in their foreign policy. That is why you see these major armament deals taking place between Turkey and other NATO countries. The second focus is expansion into cross-border areas. You’ll find a strong Turkish presence in places like Somalia, northern Iraq, Qatar, and Libya. In fact, in Libya, they’ve even taken control of the country’s maritime territory.”
“Wait, wait,” Nicole said, stopping. Nir saw that she had her eyes closed and was concentrating. When she opened them, he could see that she was having an “Aha!” moment. “I was just picturing the Mediterranean. You’ve got Cyprus, which has a Turkish presence in the north.”
“And which, except for its southern border, is surrounded by ‘Turkish waters.’ And I’m talking extending down below the island on either side.”
“Okay, got it. But then you have Libyan waters coming up from Africa toward the island of Crete. Essentially, in the eyes of Erdoğan, Israel is cut off from Europe without the help of Turkey.”
Nir kissed Nicole on the forehead. “Smart girl. Cutting out Turkey is denying mavi vatan, which is telling the Turks, ‘You and your perceived destiny? Yeah, we’re not buying it. We’re going to go through your so-called waters with or without your permission.’ That is why Erdoğan is having such a conniption. He’s offended. He’s hurt. His economy is tanking, and his big hope for financial solvency through Israeli gas has just been pulled out from under him.”
“Makes sense. Crazy. It really does all come down to money.”