Has the West Lost It?

Notes

1 https://www.marxists.org/reference/archive/machiavelli/works/prince/ch25.htm

2 https://www.siemens.com/content/dam/internet/siemens-com/customer-magazine/2017/industry/february/other_assets/mckinsey-asia-and-the-new-infrastructure-opportunity.pdf

3 https://www.lrb.co.uk/2016/11/14/rw-johnson/trump-some-numbers

4 https://www.ft.com/content/1c7270d2-6ae4-11e7-b9c7-15af748b60d0

5 https://archive.org/stream/LeoStraussThoughtsOnMachiavelli_201411/%5BLeo_Strauss%5D_Thoughts_on_Machiavelli_djvu.txt

6 Isaiah Berlin, ‘A Special Supplement: The Question of Machiavelli’, New York Review of Books, 4 November 1971: http://www.nybooks.com/articles/1971/11/04/a-special-supplement-the-question-of-machiavelli/ (accessed 6 June 2017).

7 https://newrepublic.com/article/77728/history-violence

8 Steven Pinker, ‘A History of Violence’, New Republic, 19 March 2007: https://newrepublic.com/article/77728/history-violence/ (accessed 28 November 2017).

9 Max Roser, ‘Proof that Life is Getting Better for Humanity, in 5 Charts’, published online at https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2016/12/23/14062168/history-global-conditions-charts-life-span-poverty

10 Peter Diamandis, Twitter post, 11 November 2016: https://twitter.com/PeterDiamandis/status/797119982224097281/

11 Johan Norberg, ‘Despite Many Obstacles, the World is Getting Better’, Guardian, 14 February 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/global-development-professionals-network/2017/feb/14/despite-many-obstacles-the-world-is-getting-better

12 Bertrand Russell, ‘The Study of Mathematics’, New Quarterly, November 1907.

13 Elsje Fourie, ‘Model Students: Policy Emulation, Modernization, and Kenya’s Vision 2030’, African Affairs, Vol. 113, Issue 453, 1 October 2014, pp. 540–62.

14 ‘FT interview: Meles Zenawi, Ethiopian prime minister’, Financial Times, 6 February 2007: https://www.ft.com/content/4db917b4-b5bd-11db-9eea-0000779e2340 (accessed 10 August 2017).

15 ‘Ethiopia’s Renaissance Follows Korean Development’, Korea Herald, 26 April 2015: http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20150426000317 (accessed 10 August 2017).

16 Anthony Elson, ‘The Economic Growth of East Asia and Latin America in Comparative Perspective: Lessons for Development Policy’, World Economics, Vol. 7, No. 2, April–June 2006: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.516.4315&rep=rep1&type=pdf

17 Vikas Pota, ‘Emerging Market Youth Embrace Liberal Globalism’, 8 February 2017: https://www.ft.com/content/beb7ae08-ed48-11e6-930f-061b01e23655 (accessed 13 March 2017).

18 OECD, Government at a Glance 2013, OECD Publishing, 2013: http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/governance/government-at-a-glance-2013_gov_glance-2013-en

19 Angus Maddison, ‘Statistics on World Population, GDP and Per Capita GDP, 1–2008 AD’: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm (accessed 8 February 2017).

20 Francis Fukuyama, ‘The End of History?’ The National Interest, summer 1989: https://ps321.community.uaf.edu/files/2012/10/Fukuyama-End-of-history-article.pdf

21 Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan, ‘Demographics Will Reverse Three Multi-decade Global Trends’, BIS Working Papers No. 656, Bank for International Settlements, 2107: https://www.bis.org/publ/work656.htm

22 Data sources: 1980–2020 – IMF Database (2016 Economic Outlook), accessed 3 March 2017; 2050 – PwC GDP projections.

23 IMF Database (2017 Economic Outlook). Accessed 5 June 2017.

24 https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/world-2050/assets/pwc-world-in-2050-slide-pack-feb-2017.pdf

25 Saeed Shah, ‘Pakistan’s Middle Class Soars as Stability Returns’, Wall Street Journal, 1 February 2017: https://www.wsj.com/articles/pakistans-middle-class-soars-as-stability-returns-1485945001 (accessed 6 February 2017).

26 World Bank, World Bank open data: http://data.worldbank.org/ (accessed 7 February 2017).

27 Homi Kharas, The Emerging Middle Class in Developing Countries, Working Paper No. 285, OECD Development Centre: https://www.oecd.org/dev/44457738.pdf (accessed 7 February 2017).

28 ‘1MDB: The Case that has Riveted Malaysia’, BBC News, 22 July 2016: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-33447456

29 A. H. Roslan, ‘Income Inequality, Poverty and Development Policy in Malaysia’, a paper presented at the International Seminar on ‘Poverty and Sustainable Development’, 22–23 November 2001, organized by Université Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV and UNESCO-Paris, France (fully funded by UNESCO): http://ged.u-bordeaux4.fr/SBROSLAN.pdf (accessed 13 March 2017).

30 United Nations Statistics Division, Millennium Development Goals Database, ‘Population Below National Poverty Line’: http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=population+below+national+poverty+line%2c+total%2c+percentage&d=MDG&f=seriesRowID%3a581 (accessed 13 March 2017).

31 Asian Development Bank, ‘The Rise of Asia’s Middle Class’, in Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific 2010: https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/27726/special-chapter-02.pdf (accessed 13 March 2017).

32 Joyce Dargay, Dermot Gately and Martin Sommer, ‘Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960–2030’, January 2007: http://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.168.3895&rep=rep1&type=pdf (accessed 13 March 2017).

33 Source: World Bank, GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$).

34 Source: World Bank, school enrolment, tertiary, female (% gross).

35 Source: World Bank, GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$, 1981: 227 US$; 2015: 486 US$).

36 Kishore Mahbubani, ‘The West and the Rest’, National Interest, No. 28, summer 1992, pp. 3–12.

37 http://www.anth.ucsb.edu/faculty/stonich/classes/anth130b/INTERNATIONAL%20TOURISM.pdf

38 http://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284418145

39 Source: World Bank Database.

40 Source: World Bank data on mobile cellular subscriptions (per 100 people).

41 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-30/india-becomes-second-phone-market-to-cross-1-billion-subscribers

42 ‘With 220mn Users, India is Now World’s Second-biggest Smartphone Market’, The Hindu, 3 February 2016: http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/mumbai/business/with-220mn-users-india-is-now-worlds-secondbiggest-smartphone-market/article8186543.ece

43 https://www.ericsson.com/assets/local/mobility-report/documents/2016/india-ericsson-mobility-report-june-2016.pdf

44 Maddison, ‘Statistics on World Population’: http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm (accessed 8 February 2017).

45 Kishore Mahbubani and Jeffery Sng, The ASEAN Miracle: A Catalyst for Peace, Singapore: NUS Press, 2017, p. 114.

46 Source: World Bank Database (June 2017).

47 Source: IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2017).

48 http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/04/06/why-muslims-are-the-worlds-fastest-growing-religious-group/

49 Ahmad Jibril, Twitter post, 13 January 2013: https://twitter.com/ahmadmusajibril/status/290455071479705601

50 Angus Roxburgh, letter, ‘Nato is Misquoting Gorbachev’, Guardian, 8 March 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/mar/08/nato-is-misquoting-mikhail-gorbachev

51 Thomas L. Friedman, ‘Why Putin Doesn’t Respect Us’, New York Times, 4 March 2014: https://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/05/opinion/friedman-why-putin-doesnt-respect-us.html?_r=0

52 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-henry-kissinger-on-state-of-global-politics-a-1002073.html

53 http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/interview-with-zbigniew-brzezinski-on-russia-and-ukraine-a-1041795.html

54 https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/mikhail-gorbachev-hails-crimea-result-happy-event-n55416

55 http://www.npr.org/2016/12/22/506625913/database-tracks-history-of-u-s-meddling-in-foreign-elections

56 Kishore Mahbubani, Beyond the Age of Innocence: Rebuilding Trust between America and the World, New York: Public Affairs, 2005, p. 144.

57 Kishore Mahbubani, The Great Convergence: Asia, the West, and the Logic of One World, New York: Public Affairs, 2013, pp. 3–4.

58 This was confirmed to the author by a senior American official.

59 Seamus Milne, ‘Now the Truth Emerges: How the US Fuelled the Rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq’, Guardian, 3 June 2015: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

60 Charles Fisher, ‘Southeast Asia: The Balkans of the Orient? A Study in Continuity and Change’, Geography, Vol. 47, No. 4, 1962.

61 Mahbubani and Sng, The ASEAN Miracle.

62 Kevin Rudd, ‘Myanmar’s Rohingya Crisis Meets Reality’, New York Times, 21 September 2017: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/opinion/myanmar-rohingya-aung-san-suu-kyi.html?mcubz=0&_r=0

63 https://www.poetryfoundation.org/poems/45362/locksley-hall

64 Patrick Moynihan, A Dangerous Place, Little, Brown, 1980, p. 247.

65 Maggie Farley, ‘UN Resolutions Frequently Violated’, Los Angeles Times, 17 October 2002: http://articles.latimes.com/2002/oct/17/world/fg-resolution17

66 https://usun.state.gov/remarks/7691

67 Shyam Saran, ‘The Morning-after Principle’, Business Standard, 10 June 2014: http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/shyam-saran-the-morning-after-principle-114061001300_1.html

68 https://in.news.yahoo.com/india-aligned-movement-post-brexit-100614501.html

69 Mahbubani, The Great Convergence, pp. 91–7.

70 http://www.margaretthatcher.org/document/106155

71 Berlin, ‘The Question of Machiavelli’.

72 http://www.businessinsider.com/r-after-summits-with-trump-merkel-says-europe-must-take-fate-into-own-hands-2017-5/?IR=T

73 Source: World Bank, GDP per capita (constant 2010 US$), accessed 16 March 2017.

74 Hardeep Singh Puri, Perilous Interventions: The Security Council and the Politics of Chaos, Uttar Pradesh: HarperCollins India, 2016, p. 154.

75 Christopher Thornton, ‘The Iran We Don’t See’, The Atlantic, 6 June 2012: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/06/the-iran-we-dont-see-a-tour-of-the-country-where-people-love-americans/258166/

76 Chas Freeman, ‘Reimagining Great Power Relations’, lecture at the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University, 9 March 2017: http://watson.brown.edu/files/watson/imce/people/fellows/freeman/ReimaginingGreatPowerRelations.pdf (accessed 23 March 2017).

77 Source: The Maddison Project.

78 Source: OECD projections.

79 Source: United Nations, medium fertility variant.

80 Mahbubani, The Great Convergence, pp. 239–40.

81 Kishore Mahbubani, ‘When China Becomes Number One’, Horizons, No. 4 (summer 2015): http://www.mahbubani.net/articles%20by%20dean/Horizons—Summer-2015—Issue-No.4-043-048.pdf

82 David B. Larter, ‘Donald Trump Wants to Start the Biggest Navy Build-up in Decades’, Navy Times, 15 November 2016: https://www.navytimes.com/articles/donald-trumps-navy-bigger-fleet-more-sailors-350-ships

83 http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/transcript-global-challenges

84 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-01/19/c_135994707.htm

85 https://www2.deloitte.com/global/en/pages/about-deloitte/articles/millennialsurvey.html

86 http://www.pewglobal.org/2014/10/09/emerging-and-developing-economies-much-more-optimistic-than-rich-countries-about-the-future/

87 http://oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/3681/An_emerging_middle_class.html

88 Nikil Saval, ‘Globalisation: The Rise and Fall of an Idea that Swept the World’, Guardian, 14 July 2017: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jul/14/globalisation-the-rise-and-fall-of-an-idea-that-swept-the-world