The Old Ways:
Predicting the Weather
Charlynn Walls
Groundhog Day is something that used to be a big deal where I lived. I remember watching the local news station as a kid in school. They would do their report and then they brought on Punxsutawney Phil. He, of course, was the groundhog that would tell us if spring was near or if we were still in the icy grip of winter for the next six weeks. We waited with baited breath as we tried to tell if Phil had seen his shadow or not. Only after Phil had had a lengthy conversation with an oddly dressed man presiding over the festivities did we find out what occurred.
Imbolc is the first festival after the longest night of the year. The days are slowly getting longer and the impatient wait for spring is in full swing. Imbolc heralds the return of the sun, a time when the Goddess returns to speed the way for spring.
When Will Winter End?
There are several traditions from Europe that gave rise to the observance of Groundhog Day in the United States. For those that put plough to field, the festivities were a welcome diversion to the monotony of winter. To brighten the spirits of their congregations the clergy would pass out candles. The correlation between that act and the weather seems to extend to the sayings that were used to help predict winter’s end.
According to an old English song:
If Candlemas be fair and bright,
Come, Winter, have another flight;
If Candlemas brings clouds and rain,
Go Winter, and come not again.
According to an old Scottish couplet:
If Candlemas Day is bright and clear,
There’ll be twa (two) winters in the year.
Another variation of the Scottish rhyme:
If Candlemas day be dry and fair,
The half o’ winter to come and mair,
If Candlemas day be wet and foul,
The half of winter’s gone at Yule.
(Previously published on Groundhog.org)
The implication of these rhymes is that if the day is bright and clear then winter will continue, and if the day is cloudy then spring is near.
Animals as Predictors of Weather
If looking outside to get a feel for the weather seems to be a little unfair, we can always turn toward our animal brethren to help us make the call. Here are a few other predictors of weather that we still see supported in the Old Farmer’s Almanac:
“Expect rain when dogs eat grass, cats purr and wash, sheep turn into the wind, oxen sniff the air, and swine are restless.”
“If the groundhog sees its shadow on Candlemas Day (February 2), six more weeks of winter remain.”
“When horses and cattle stretch out their necks and sniff the air, it will rain.”
“When rabbits are fat in October and November, expect a long, cold winter.” (Old Farmer’s Almanac)
Animals are more connected to the land than we as humans tend to be. They have heightened senses that increase their ability to survive. By observing what is going on in the natural world we can connect to the land and its cycles, and utilize their behavior to make predictions about the weather.
Meet Phil
So, how did a groundhog become a predictor of the weather? Some of the settlers in Pennsylvania were from regions in and around Germany. They would often watch animal behavior to predict the weather. They would watch the hedgehogs near their homes to see what they would do on Imbolc. It seems that this tradition found its way across the Atlantic to their new home.
In 1887, the first Groundhog’s Day was observed in the United States. This holiday began when the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club became involved. They reported that Phil could predict the weather. He has been making predictions about winter’s end for over 130 years now. People come from all over to partake in the festivities, and those who cannot arrive in person can tune in via television or webcast.
Celebrating Imbolc: Making Your Own Predictions
During February, when we are in the middle of winter, you can watch the world from your window. In doing so, you can incorporate your own take on weather predictions into your Imbolc festivities.
Watching Nature on Your Own
If you are on your own during the morning hours of Imbolc, turn to a window that looks out on your yard, a field, or the woods. Watch for animals that may emerge during that time and watch their behaviors. Do the birds sing? Do the animals seem full of purpose, diligently foraging for food? Tune in to the energies of the animals and the land and draw your own conclusions as to when you think winter will end. Write down your prediction. Once the earth begins to thaw, take a look and see if you were right.
Share the Fun with a Group
If you are a part of a group, plan to gather together to watch Punxsutawney Phil look for his shadow. Have everyone put their predictions onto a slip of paper and collect them. Tally up the answers and then watch the results. Did you all agree that he saw his shadow or not? Share other observations and interpretations from what you viewed.
References
“History.” Groundhog.org. 2018. http://www.groundhog.org/about/history/.
K, Amber and Azreal Arynn K. Candlemas: Feast of Flames. St. Paul, MN: Lewellyn Publications, 2003.
McCoy, Edain. The Sabbats: A New Approach to Living the Old Ways. St. Paul, MN: Lewellyn Publications, 1994.
Morgan, Sheena. The Wicca Book of Days. London: Vega, 2003.
Neal, Carl F. Imbolc: Rituals, Recipes & Lore for Brigid’s Day. Woodbury, MN: Lewellyn Publications, 2015.
Nichols, Mike. The Witches’ Sabbats. Albany, CA: Acorn Guild Press, 2005.
Old Farmer’s Almanac. “Can Animals Predict Weather? Animal Proverbs.” https://www.almanac.com/content/can-animals-predict-weather-animal-proverbs.