EN ROUTE TO TALLINN, ESTONIA —21 SEPTEMBER

“Dovzhenko is right,” Dayton said after they lifted off from Kiev. “We need to figure out how to help him.”

“No, sir, he’s not right —not entirely,” Annie replied.

Marcus looked up from a text he was writing to Nick Vinetti in Moscow.

“What do you mean?” the senator asked. “The Ukrainians did give up their nukes in return for American and British security guarantees. Now they’re about to be overrun by the Russians, and the White House is AWOL.”

“It’s not that simple, sir.”

“Sure it is,” Pete interjected. “Look, this isn’t just a strategic issue. It’s a moral one. America doesn’t cut our allies loose. Yet that’s exactly what Clarke has done. And if you position yourself right, Senator, you can use this to show that Clarke has no idea what he’s doing when it comes to foreign policy.”

“Annie, Pete’s right,” Dayton said.

“No, sir, he’s not,” Annie pushed back firmly but respectfully.

“Why not?”

“For starters, Ukraine is not an ally,” she replied. “A friend? Yes. But an ally? No. Second, reread the Budapest Memorandum. There’s no question the Russians pledged to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine, and there’s also no question that they have clearly and repeatedly broken that pledge. But nowhere in that document does the U.S. explicitly promise to go to war with Russia to defend Ukraine. Nor does it explicitly commit an American president to provide weapons and other war matériel to Ukraine if the agreement is violated. It’s not a treaty, and if it were, it never would have been ratified by the Senate —not in 1994 and certainly not now.”

“What are you saying?” Pete asked, becoming far more animated about this than Marcus would have imagined. “Are you suggesting Clarke is right to cut the Ukrainians loose to the likes of Aleksandr Luganov?”

“No, of course not.”

“Then what?”

“I’m suggesting the senator would be wise to tread with extreme caution and not publicly commit himself to war with Russia in order to protect Ukraine,” she replied. “Don’t get me wrong. I feel for Dovzhenko and his people. Believe me, I do.”

“But . . . ?” Pete pressed.

“But the truth is we simply do not have a treaty obligation to Kiev. We do have one with the Baltics, though. In a few hours, Senator, you’ll be sitting with the Estonian prime minister. Estonia is a member of NATO. If the Russians were to move against Estonia or Latvia or Lithuania, then the U.S. would have a legal obligation to defend them. Yet even this raises a critical question, sir, especially for a progressive Democrat like yourself.”

“Which is?”

“Are you sure you are willing to risk a nuclear war with Russia to defend three countries that few Americans have ever heard of? On top of that, are you really ready to go to war to defend a country with whom we don’t even have a treaty? And either way, how exactly are you going to sell that to the Democratic Party and win your party’s nomination?”

They arrived at Toompea Castle just in time for their noon meeting.

The castle, built around the thirteenth century, was a mammoth structure surrounded by a high stone wall. After a brief photo op similar to the one in Kiev, Prime Minister Voldemar Jannsen invited Dayton and the team to join him for lunch along with the ministers of defense and foreign affairs.

As soon as lunch was served, Jannsen got down to business. “My intelligence chiefs tell me Luganov has positioned more than fifty thousand Russian combat soldiers on our border in addition to the hundred thousand troops he’s positioned in Belarus and on the borders of Ukraine. In addition, he’s moved four hundred battle tanks and fifteen squadrons of bombers and fighters within striking distance of us and our Baltic neighbors. The Kremlin says it’s an exercise. But my advisors say it’s the prelude to war.”

“We heard similar concerns in Kiev,” the senator replied.

“I’m sure you did, but you don’t have a treaty with Kiev. You do have one with us.”

“And we will honor it,” Dayton said without hesitation.

Marcus glanced at Annie, who kept a poker face.

“Will you, Senator?” the prime minister asked. “I don’t mean to be undiplomatic, but your president seems awfully vague about Article 5.”

“Unfortunately, that’s true —and that’s one of the reasons I’m considering running.”

The prime minister shifted in his seat. “Senator, I hope you will not be offended when I say this.”

“No, of course not.”

“Whether you run for the presidency of your country or not is of little concern to me and my colleagues. We cannot wait for a new American president. Tallinn is less than two hundred miles from the Russian border. I need the man who sits in the White House right now to step up and give us a decisive and demonstrative show of support before it’s too late.”

“I hear you,” Dayton said. “And I’m heading to Brussels in a few days. I’m going to deliver a major speech calling for all NATO countries to step up and fulfill their obligations to invest at least 2 percent of their GDP on annual defense expenditures, as stated in the NATO accord.”

“I appreciate that, Senator —I do. We absolutely need every NATO country to do their fair share. We certainly are, and more. Our defense spending has hit 2 percent and usually more nearly every year since Estonia gained membership in NATO in 2004. But again, as important as shining a spotlight on this investment issue is, it’s not going to help much if the Russians invade next week or next month.”

“I take your point,” Dayton said. “What specifically do you need, Mr. Prime Minister?”

“What do I need?” Jannsen asked. “For starters, why isn’t NATO flowing in combat brigades, tanks, fighter jets, and antiaircraft missiles, not just here but throughout the Baltics? The Russians have put together an overwhelming force. By all evidence, they are training for an invasion right now. Tomorrow I will take you to the border. I will introduce you to my top generals. I will show you the current disposition of forces. But what have Washington or London or Brussels or Berlin done in response? They’ve issued meaningless condemnations of Luganov and vague statements of support for the Baltics. What I need is troops and heavy weapons, not more words.”

“Again, that is precisely why I have come, Mr. Prime Minister —to see the situation for myself and be able to sound the alarm throughout Europe and back in Washington.”

“Good,” Jannsen said. “We’re not getting many representatives from Washington coming through the Baltics these days, and we’re grateful for every friend we can find over there. But may I be even more candid with you, Senator?”

“Of course.”

At this, the prime minister leaned close to Dayton and lowered his voice, such that Marcus had to strain to hear every word, even though he was sitting with Annie and Pete just a few feet away.

“Please take this message back directly to President Clarke. At this moment the very existence of my country hangs in the balance. And I must tell you the existence of NATO itself is very much in jeopardy.”

“Go on.”

“If the Russians invade Ukraine, that’s horrible, but it doesn’t obligate Washington to take action,” Jannsen said almost in a whisper. “But if Luganov invades the Baltics, Article 5 kicks in. If you honor your treaty obligations, then you and the rest of NATO have to come to war to drive out the Russians and reestablish our independence. But let’s be brutally honest. If Russians and Americans start killing each other, Luganov is going to use tactical battlefield nuclear weapons. When that happens, many Estonians, Latvians, and Lithuanians will die in a millisecond. Millions more will die horrifying deaths in the days and weeks that follow. And it won’t just be us. NATO forces will die as well, including Americans. Then your president will be faced with the ultimate worst-case scenario —will he retaliate against Moscow and other Russian cities with ICBMs and nuclear weapons? If he does, he knows he runs the risk of setting into motion a global thermonuclear war, which will lead to the deaths of hundreds of millions. But if he backs down and chooses not to honor the NATO treaty, then he is signing the death sentence not just for us but for all of NATO. What’s more, he’ll be creating a monster —Aleksandr Luganov will have not only seized the Baltics, he will have personally crushed NATO. He will have effectively paralyzed the United States. And in so doing he will have won the right to dictate terms on any matter, anywhere on the globe, financial, political, military, and otherwise.”

The prime minister paused to let his words sink in. “You must not kid yourself, Senator,” he added after a moment. “These are the stakes, and they are very high —unimaginably high.”

“Do you see any hope?” Dayton asked.

“Perhaps,” Jannsen replied. “But it’s a narrow path, and rapidly becoming narrower still. Go back and implore the president to send us the Eighty-Second Airborne. Send us mechanized units. Order American battle tanks that are in storage to be taken out of mothballs and readied for service. Send fighter squadrons. Send bombers. The only hope to prevent the very real scenario I just laid out is for the U.S. and the rest of NATO to make a clear stand with us and do so immediately. Build up a force here big enough to make Luganov think twice. You don’t have to match him man for man, tank for tank, plane for plane. You just have to show that NATO is ready to go toe-to-toe with him using conventional forces. That’s how you stop him. And that’s how you make sure that all-out nuclear war isn’t the only option to protect freedom on the earth.”