1995

Gartner Hype Cycle

The Gartner® Hype Cycle is a pictorial representation of a technology’s visible and expected value at one of five points in time: the technology trigger, characterized by a technology’s emergence into public view; the peak of inflated expectations, symbolizing the maximum stage of overenthusiasm and buzz about a technology’s potential; the trough of disillusionment after the inflated expectations have gone bust; and the slope of enlightenment as the once-hyped, then-scorned technology slowly comes into wide adoption, ironically realizing the early expectations. The fifth phase is the plateau of productivity, which symbolizes the start of mainstream adoption and expanded innovation around the technology or product. Press becomes more positive, the technology’s practical application to real-world needs is clearly defined, and the use of its name may morph into a general description of activity rather than the product itself, such as Xerox and Google being used as verbs.

Created in 1995 by the Gartner Group, a well-known consultancy and IT advisory company, the Hype Cycle has had remarkable staying power, because it accurately characterizes the boom/bust/slow-boom nature of today’s media-driven technology interest and deployment. The model has become a popular source of reference with technology decision-makers—and even the public—who want to understand a technology’s potential as it moves through the cycle of innovation. Today the model informs investment decisions, IT strategy planning, and general acumen about emerging technologies, using a mix of quantitative and qualitative data.

Of course, not every technology follows this cycle. Some hyped technologies fail to pan out, and other technologies—such as DVDs and the PC—never really went through the trough of disillusionment. But most technologies do, and their adherence to the cycle is evident in patent filings, press stories, the number of online searches, investment activity, blog posts, and other indicators.

The Gartner Hype Cycle has not been without its critics, and many have challenged the accuracy of its underlying methodologies. It has, however, proved to be both an easy-to-use and an incredibly popular tool that puts a dense, often complicated landscape of technology into an understandable graphic that is useful for both the novice and the expert.

SEE ALSO E-Commerce (1995)

Despite attempts to anticipate a technology’s value at a certain point in time, it does not always follow a predictable path of innovation and popularity.