Before looking at the next 50 years, it’s important to look back, searching not only for patterns that may repeat, but for significant insights that have passed the test of time. 
I was an early fan of Alvin Toffler, a true visionary who brought the subject of the future to both mainstream media and business with his groundbreaking book Future Shock (1970). I had the pleasure of meeting this great writer and forward thinker on several occasions.
I first met Alvin and his amazing wife, Heidi, in the late 1980s. They were in the front row as I delivered a keynote speech about the future of technology-driven change, a speech I will never forget. I can clearly remember him hitting the table in agreement as I made key points, and after the speech, he shared his kind words of encouragement.
In his writing and speeches, he repeatedly warned businesses that technological progress would usher in an unrelenting era of change. He was one of the first to use the phrase “information overload.” Once again, he accurately predicted the incoming deluge of data that was about to dominate our lives. And if you think you know what information overload and big data are today, you will soon consider today’s big data small data thanks to data-dependent innovations such as connected sensors, machines talking to machines, artificial intelligence (AI), and the Internet of Everything (IoE).
Although Toffler specialized in cautionary tales of the importance of keeping up with technological change, his messages were always delivered with a mix of pessimism and optimism. Critics will point out that he was wrong in a number of areas along the way, such as predictions of the creation of cities beneath the waves, and space colonies. As we consider the overall breadth of the changes we have experienced in the last few decades, however, we cannot rule out that over time, these predictions may become reality.
I’ve been a professional futurist for over three decades now. I’ve written seven books and hundreds of articles and delivered over 3,000 keynote speeches globally. My themes address using what I call Hard Trends and exponential technologies to actively shape the future, rather than passively receive it. When I started in the early 1980s, there were only a handful of professional futurists writing and speaking to large audiences, and I can safely say we all saw Alvin Toffler as the father of modern futurism.
We all spend way too much time reacting and responding to external change, and putting out fires—in other words, in crisis management. In order to better navigate a world of accelerating change, organizations large and small have learned to be lean and agile, and to execute a strategy at a high level of competence.
However, in the early years of this new century, despite having these well-refined competencies, General Motors still declared bankruptcy, Blockbuster closed its last store, and BlackBerry quickly moved from leading to bleeding. And let’s not forget Hewlett-Packard, Sony, Dell, Microsoft, Sears, and a host of other companies that faced major financial problems and disruptions to their core business despite their leaders and employees implementing lean and agile strategies and knowing how to execute well.
To thrive in this new age of hyper-change and increasing disruptive challenges, we have to go beyond agility, which is a reactive strategy. Agile organizations have learned how to react quickly after a disruption or problem occurs. This is great and we should all get better at it, but in a world of accelerating disruption driven by exponential technological change, reacting quickly has less strategic value every year. It is now an imperative to learn a new competency—how to accurately anticipate the future.
That may seem impossible, but it’s not. The future is far more certain than you realize. Learning to find certainty in an uncertain world provides a big advantage to those who have learned how and where to look. And when you and your employees master this skill, you’ll be able to create what I call an Anticipatory Organization®.
Let’s face it, there is no shortage of trends; the real problem is determining which ones will happen, and when. Based on over three decades of research and applying the principles I’ve developed to organizations worldwide, I have developed a proven methodology for separating any trend about the future into one of two categories: Hard Trends, the trends that will happen because they are based on future facts, and Soft Trends, trends that might happen and are based on assumptions about the future.
A Hard Trend is something that cannot be changed. The benefit of a Hard Trend is that you can clearly see disruption and change coming at you before they occur. This gives you the ability to turn disruption into a choice! In addition, strategy based on the certainty that Hard Trends provide has low risk, and when people have high levels of certainty, they have the confidence to make bold moves. When you are experiencing uncertainty, it’s like a giant roadblock. You’re stuck; you don’t move forward. People who are uncertain don’t say yes, they don’t write big checks, they put off making decisions.
On the other hand, people with high levels of certainty have the confidence to say yes, to write the big checks, and to move forward faster.
There are three main categories of Hard Trends: Demographic, Regulatory, and Technology.
An example of a Demographic Hard Trend is that there are currently 78 million baby boomers in the U.S. and they will not get younger. This future fact provides both predictable opportunities and predictable problems that we can either pre-solve or let play out. China also has an aging population. Millions of Chinese have been breathing heavily polluted air in their major cities for well over a decade. Those large particulates are known to lodge in the lungs and cause major health problems down the road. Because major health problems in the future are a Soft Trend, meaning they are highly likely to happen but they are not a future fact, preventive actions could be taken now, or we could let the major health problems play out.
An example of a Regulatory Hard Trend would be increasing regulations around cybersecurity. Hard Trends are at play that governments will not be able to ignore. How quickly government takes action is a Soft Trend, but the increasing problem is a Hard Trend.
Examples of Technology Hard Trend categories are on a list I first published in the early 1980s. I said each technology-driven Hard Trend category would increase at an exponential rate. Here is the list: Networking, Dematerialization, Virtualization, Product Intelligence, Mobility, Interactivity, Globalization, and Convergence.
Here is a sample of 12 technology areas that represent Hard Trends that are increasing at an exponential rate and will shape the decades ahead:
1 
Artificial Intelligence (AI), Advanced Machine Learning, and Cognitive Computing Applications
2 Adaptive and Predictive Cybersecurity Systems
3 Virtualization and Advanced Cloud Computing Services
4 Virtualization of Processes and Services (On-Demand Services)
5 Blockchains and Cryptocurrency
6 Augmented Reality (AR) and Virtual Reality (VR) Apps and Devices
7 Smart Virtual e-Assistants and Voice-Enabled Devices
8 IoT, creating the Internet of Everything (IoE)
9 3D Printing (Additive Manufacturing) of Finished Goods
10 Wearables
11 Drones
12 Energy Storage and Microgrids
At this point, you might think Soft Trends have little value because they are not certain to happen. The fact is that I love both Hard Trends and Soft Trends! Soft Trends have great value because they can be changed, which means they provide a powerful vehicle to influence the future and can be capitalized on. Soft Trends might be highly likely to happen, but they are not a future fact, and that means they can be influenced.
A quick example of a Soft Trend would be increasing healthcare costs in the U.S. Many people think this is an unstoppable trend, so the focus becomes how to pay for the increasing burden. When you realize this is a Soft Trend that can be changed, you are empowered to look for tools and strategies to do so. For example, Blockchain could be used in the healthcare ecosystem to provide transparency, trust, and greater security, which would increase competition and lower costs. We can also use AI, machine learning, and other tools to enhance human decisions to yield better outcomes.
Understanding the difference between Hard Trends and Soft Trends allows us to transform how we plan and innovate! Using this methodology allows us to accurately predict disruptions and identify and solve problems before they happen. This enables us to solve challenges and problems faster and see opportunities that were impossible to recognize just a few years before. In other words, we become anticipatory rather than reactionary.
Employees of an Anticipatory Organization understand that those who can most accurately see the future will have the biggest advantage. They know that we cannot change the past, but we can shape the future based on actions taken in the present. They actively embrace the fact that many future disruptions, problems, and game-changing opportunities are predictable and represent unprecedented ways to gain advantage. They know that it’s better to solve predictable problems before they happen, and that future problems often represent the biggest opportunities. Above all else, they are confident and empowered by having a shared view of the future based on Hard Trends and what I call the “Science of Certainty.”
What is the Science of Certainty? Once we can separate Hard Trends from Soft Trends—once we can differentiate between the things that will happen and the things that might happen—we can accurately define the certainties going forward. For example, we know that AI will be increasingly embedded in our smart devices, which will get increasingly smarter as our computing ecosystem continues to advance at an exponential rate. We know that after 5G wireless, we will get 6G followed by 7G in a predictable way. And we know that we are putting more and more in the cloud, and products, processes, and services will be increasingly virtualized.
How much time do you spend trying to keep up, putting out fires, crisis managing, and reacting to change? Are these activities helping you to get ahead? Learning to be anticipatory can change that and provide you with a new way to actively shape your future.
The negative impact of climate change is a Soft Trend; governments and individuals can either pre-solve predictable problems or rely on hope. Hope is not a strategy.
The quality of human existence over the next 50 years is a Soft Trend. We can influence it in a positive direction or not. If we want a more humane world, a more enlightened world, a world where we have increasing opportunity for all, we need to all become active shapers of the future.
Daniel Burrus is considered one of the world’s leading technology forecasters and disruptive innovation experts. He is the CEO of Burrus Research, a research and consulting firm that monitors global advances in technology-driven trends to help clients profit from technological, social, and business forces that are converging to create enormous, untapped opportunities. He is a strategic advisor to executives, helping them to develop game-changing strategies based on his proven methodologies for capitalizing on technology innovations. He is the author of seven books, including The New York Times bestseller Flash Foresight and his latest book The Anticipatory Organization. Website: https://www.burrus.com