Averting Future Shock at Planetary Scale

Dr. Michel Laberge

The main theme of Future Shock is that the world is changing too fast and we humans can’t cope very well with these fast changes. Since the book was written, 50 years ago, the rate of change is even higher, worsening the problem. But humans appear to be a very adaptable species, and I believe that future shock is a rather mild condition. Although, being 57 years old, I am a bit slow taking up the social changes, my kids are doing just fine and embrace the new ways of life without difficulty. For them, it is just the way it is. Humans can cope with the changes due to high brain function. Our interaction with the world is driven much more by our intellect than by inherited instinct.

Unfortunately, that is not the case for the natural world of plants, animals, and ecosystems. They are capable of successfully adapting to changes over many generations, through Darwinian evolution, but it is generally a very slow process and they are ill-prepared for the rapid changes that humans are inflicting on the planet. Consequently, deforestation, pollution, global warming, and habitat modification are leading to the disappearance of species at an enormous rate. We are wrecking the place, and nature is suffering a serious case of future shock.

Due to our technology, we do not get eaten by tigers anymore and our population is growing. To feed it, an increasing fraction of the Earth’s surface is turned to high-productivity farming. Ocean life is heavily harvested at an unsustainable rate. Aquifers are being depleted. Access to cheap energy from fossil fuel allows this technology-intensive world to function. Dig in the ground and out comes oil, gas, and coal. This fantastic gift of nature has fueled our present technological society.

Unfortunately, using this resource is not without serious drawbacks. As a natural process, CO2 from the air is turned into plants that die and get buried in the ground, forming fossil fuels. Some CO2 is returned to the atmosphere by volcanism, and an equilibrium is achieved. Over eons, the planet got used to this equilibrium level of atmospheric CO2. But we now dig out the fossil fuel, burn it, and release the CO2 into the air at a rate sufficient to upset this equilibrium, causing the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere to rapidly rise, leading to climate change. These changes are too fast for adaptation by the natural world.

Future Shock was written in the golden age of atomic energy, and Alvin Toffler proposed that clean, cheap, and abundant energy would be produced by fission reactors. Fifty years later, only 4 percent of worldwide energy is produced by nuclear fission reactors and this percentage is trending down. Accidents, cost, and concerns about radioactive waste and atomic weapon proliferation have made this option less attractive.

Unforeseen by Toffler is the rapid rise in renewable energy, mostly wind and solar. Although CO2-free, these renewables suffer from low energy density, requiring vast collecting areas, and are intermittent. They currently provide only 2.5 percent of worldwide energy, although that percentage is increasing rapidly. The high cost of electricity storage and the intermittent nature of renewables make the total cost of the electricity supply system, including complex transmission and backup generators, rise rapidly for accommodating more than ~20 percent renewables on the grid. For 100 percent renewable plus storage, the cost of energy would be 10 times more than today. So wind and solar, although helpful, cannot yet provide the majority of our energy needs at a reasonable cost.

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At the time of Future Shock’s writing, experimental machines produced 10,000 times less fusion energy than the energy used by the machine to operate; today the record is 0.6. We are fast approaching the point where fusion will have a positive energy output.

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With a growing population and an increase in its standard of living, energy demand is rapidly increasing. Burning fossil fuel makes a mess; wind and solar can’t meet the large percentage of the demand economically; and people are too scared of fission reactors.

What can we do?

The Sun and all the stars in the universe derive their formidable power from fusion energy. It is nature’s way of producing power. The simplest fusion reaction involves turning hydrogen isotopes into helium, a safe by-product. The fusion fuel can be extracted from the oceans or any body of water. There is enough fusion fuel available to run our society for billions of years. A fusion power plant cannot melt down. A small plant can produce a large quantity of electricity on demand. It produces no CO2 or other pollution. There is no weapons-grade uranium or plutonium involved.

Fusion is the ideal source of energy. But there is no such thing as a free lunch.

Producing on Earth the conditions that exist in the center of the Sun—conditions required to produce fusion energy—is extremely difficult. Yet huge progress has been made over the years. At the time of Future Shock’s writing, experimental machines produced 10,000 times less fusion energy than the energy used by the machine to operate; today the record is 0.6. We are fast approaching the point where fusion will have a positive energy output.

In the past, most of the fusion development work was done by national labs. But sensing that the endgame is within reach, there are now a few dozen private companies, such as General Fusion, developing fusion energy using various approaches. It is likely that within the next two decades some of these will succeed in creating a practical and economical fusion power plant generating electricity for the grid. The advent of clean, dense, affordable, on-demand energy will enable progress on a number of the challenges noted earlier, and further other human goals. CO2 can be removed from the air, water desalinization can help with the water supply, and food can be grown in a denser, controlled environment. Flying cars, supersonic transportation, common space travel, and other futuristic predictions have been stalled because of their huge energy demand, making them uneconomical. Fusion energy will bring us into the future.

Since establishing General Fusion in 2002 with a vision for a clean, safe, and practical source of energy, Dr. Michel Laberge and his team have become recognized as global leaders in commercial fusion energy. His work has been featured in Scientific American and Time, and drew a global TED audience of over one million viewers. Prior to establishing General Fusion, Michel spent nine years at Creo Products in Vancouver as a senior physicist and principal engineer, leading projects that resulted in more than $1 billion worth of product sales. Dr. Laberge holds a BSc and MSc in physics from Laval University, and in 1990 earned his PhD in fusion physics from the University of British Columbia.