The UK’s Ministry of Defence—not an institution given to exaggeration—recently diagnosed “unprecedented acceleration in the speed of change, driving ever more complex interactions between [diverse] trends.” 
Indeed, from demographic shifts to digital tech, the pace of global change is relentless. The vast range of problems afflicting our planet and our species are also more visible to today’s connected global citizens than to any generation that went before.
This frenetic pace of change leaves many feeling disempowered and disoriented, responding with anxiety to the sense that the future has—in Toffler’s phrase—“arrived too soon.” But for the global philanthropists who, by definition, seek to change the world—or at least a part of it—paralysis is not an option. In the new “global age of philanthropy,” they are no longer bit players on the world stage. And looking ahead, the ask from their profession is tougher than ever before: to shape the world for the better while navigating radical uncertainty in terms of future outcomes and operating environments. While challenges, from the forecast demographic explosion in sub-Saharan Africa to the fourth industrial revolution, mount up on the horizon, with the potential to reverse hard-won progress or radically change the geography and distribution of need, there is no letup in immediate demand.
Philanthropists are typically robust, resilient, and optimistic. They make a professional virtue of muddling through tough circumstances. Ambition is embedded deep in the sector’s DNA: the Chan-Zuckerberg Initiative (CZI) aims to “cure, prevent, or manage all diseases” by the end of the 21st century; the major philanthropic foundations now collectively outspend leading OECD donors on health; and the UN Sustainable Development Goals aim at no less than the complete elimination of poverty and hunger by 2030.
But this generation of philanthropists’ optimism about the future, and its ability to shape it, will not be borne out in practice without beginning to systematically and comprehensively explore possible futures and design today’s interventions in line with what they see. With fragile development gains at risk, philanthropy needs to step back from the demands of the present to become far more “future minded.” Anticipating key trends and designing sustainable approaches and interventions is vital to producing lasting change and leaving meaningful legacies. Far-sighted philanthropists are now investing in foresight, such as the new Exploration & Future Sensing unit at the Omidyar Network, set up by eBay founder Pierre Omidyar.
Collectively, philanthropies now play a bigger role in shaping global outcomes than at any other time in history, and the philanthropic trend is still booming, big time. Of the global foundations recently surveyed by Harvard, three-quarters were founded in the last 25 years; the world’s biggest private philanthropic foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, is only two decades old. New trends and new players are constantly arriving on the scene, evidenced by new waves of philanthropy from India and China and the rise of the “millennial philanthropic generation.”
Meanwhile, traditional donor governments and businesses are increasingly insular and focused on short-termist firefighting and short electoral or reporting cycles. Too often, they fail to think strategically and suffer from an excess of caution about less-tested “frontier” areas.
It falls to philanthropy, therefore, to think and act for the long term of our planet, and in the interests of future generations. Recent years have seen an understandable emphasis on data, evaluation, and measurable impact from leading players such as Gates and Rockefeller. But without looking beyond historic data, or further than the near horizon to what are inevitably more speculative scenarios with a 15-, 20-, and 50-year time frame, today’s philanthropists cannot be confident their spending programs or their policies will leave an enduring legacy in the communities they seek to help. If strategic foresight is going to move the needle on philanthropic impact, it needs to be part of the decision-making process when “big bets” are being made on future investments—whether by individual foundations or collaborative initiatives such as Co-Impact.
Philanthropists must now capitalize on their strong position as changemakers and make the transition to lasting impact, using foresight to harness the potential upsides of future changes and mitigate their looming risks. This means, in particular, that they should:
Explore and fund work on “orphan” issues and trends, often identified in foresight exercises but which governments and business then fail to pick up and address.
Identify innovative areas where they can seize the “upside” of trends. Without the same obligations to taxpayers or shareholders as governments or businesses, foundations have greater freedom of maneuver to shift focus fast and invest in experimental areas—for example, the potential of synthetic biology to revolutionize food security.
If philanthropy fails to help all of us think long term, unpredictable major trends, such as the rise of AI, could leave major justice and equity issues in their wake, with unequal outcomes not just geographically but also generationally. The Gulbenkian Foundation’s Intergenerational Fairness Project is ahead of the curve in this area, seeking to integrate the interests of future generations into current decision-making processes.
Finally, philanthropic organizations must develop their futures mind-set in thinking about the future of the sector itself. The sector cannot wait any longer to tackle the potentially existential challenges it faces around legitimacy and the accountability gap. With over 86,000 philanthropic organizations operating in the US alone, criticism at the lack of accountability has sharpened, as evidenced by the recent publication of Rob Reich’s Just Giving. Critics point out that far more scrutiny of organizations is needed. Philanthropic organizations often benefit from tax breaks, and are responsible for delivering vast programs and disbursing huge sums of money with minimal oversight or route for redress if things go wrong.
The sector now needs to fund and convene open and inclusive conversations about the future of philanthropic work to strengthen its legitimacy and help guarantee its survival through this bumpy period. IARAN’s thinking on the future of aid, and Future Agenda’s Future of Philanthropy project, are examples of practices that we hope to see spread. Wide participation in conversations about sectoral futures is vital to ensure legitimacy and to bring in diverse perspectives.
Philanthropy now has not just an opportunity, but a responsibility, to think and act for the long term. The will to do good in the world is no longer good enough. By mainstreaming foresight practice, the sector can make the future a friend, not a foe, in these unquiet, exciting times.
Cat Tully is the founder of the School of International Futures, running Strategic Foresight projects and retreats across the world, with 600 alumni in 50 countries. She advises on and teaches emergent strategy and strategic foresight internationally, including at the UN. Previously, she was Strategy Project Director at the UK FCO and a policy adviser in the Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit.