~2100

End of Fossil Fuels?

More than 80 percent of the world’s energy needs—for food production, heating/cooling, transportation, manufacturing, etc.—come from the burning of coal, oil, and natural gas that was formed millions to hundreds of millions of years ago by the burial, decay, and chemical transformation of ancient plants and other organisms. Those fossil fuels are identified by geologic mapping and remote sensing methods, extracted from sedimentary layers in the shallow subsurface by drilling or digging/tunneling, and refined into a variety of petroleum-based products by a massive worldwide manufacturing network. But by their very nature, fossil fuels are a finite resource that will eventually become too expensive to extract, or will simply run out.

Predictions by economists and energy experts about when the world would reach “peak oil” production, after which the supply of fossil fuels would slowly decline and be phased out, have varied widely. Predictions of peak oil being reached around the turn of the twenty-first century proved premature, thwarted by new exploration and resource extraction technologies (such as hydraulic fracturing to extract oil and gas from shale deposits) that have been able to offset decreases in earlier-identified sources. While technologies will certainly continue to improve, the consensus now appears to be that perhaps by the middle of this century, and almost certainly by the start of the next, the economically viable extraction of fossil fuels will have been tapped out.

Many advocates of more sustainable energy solutions think the end of fossil fuels will come even sooner. Just as technology is currently helping to keep fossil fuels economically viable, so too is it advancing the economic and social appeal of more environmentally friendly renewable energy sources, like solar, wind, hydroelectric, and nuclear power options. Substantial advances in solar and wind energy generation in the last few decades, in particular, have those cleanest of the renewable energy options poised to expand dramatically over the next few decades, with some predicting that solar power alone could account for more than 50 percent of the world’s energy needs by mid-century. Maybe the world’s reliance on fossil fuels won’t end because the supply ends, but instead because their use is simply much more expensive (in cost and environmental impact) compared to the alternatives.

Some day, maybe within 50–100 years or perhaps less, human civilization will run out of easily extractable fossil fuel resources like coal (shown here), oil, and natural gas. Then what?