Since 1990, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI), the business and economics research arm of the global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, has sought to provide leaders in the commercial, public, and social sectors with facts and insights on which to base management and policy decisions. MGI has conducted detailed research on productivity, competitiveness, the impact of technology, capital markets, natural resources, labor markets, and urbanization. In MGI’s twenty-fifth year, we have stepped back from these individual research streams to take a more holistic view of the global economy and the areas of interconnection between these research areas. In doing this, we are building on current and previous MGI and McKinsey research and the experience that comes from our colleagues and our own service and conversations with clients around the world.
One of the most gratifying aspects of being part of McKinsey is the opportunity it affords us to learn from our work with clients and colleagues around the world. The experiences and trends we describe in the book aren’t abstract or academic concepts. They are issues we are grappling with every day, in every market, in every sector, and in virtually every country in the world. We are fortunate to be part of a firm that has committed to invest in MGI’s research with a simple mission to understand how our world works and is changing and to help inform the decision making of business leaders and policy makers. And we also are grateful for the lessons we have been able to draw from our colleagues and our own work and conversations with clients.
The leadership of McKinsey has been behind this effort from the beginning. We’d like particularly to thank Dominic Barton and Ian Davis, the firm’s current and former managing directors, along with Eric Labaye, the chairman of MGI, members of the MGI Council—Jacques Bughin, Toos Daruvala, Heinz-Peter Elstrodt, Acha Leke, Scott Nyquist, and Shirish Sankhe—and other leaders of the firm, including Peter Bisson, Peter Child, Martin Hirt, Tomas Koch, Gordon Orr, and Seelan Singham.
Much of the fundamental research that served as a framework for this book was conducted under the auspices of MGI. We are enormously grateful for the work of MGI’s partners Jaana Remes, Michael Chui, Susan Lund, and senior fellows, including Alan FitzGerald, Anu Madgavkar, Jan Mischke, Jeongmin Seong, Fraser Thompson, and Sree Ramaswamy. We also want to acknowledge the advice of a group of leading economists and practitioners, including Nobel laureates, who act as MGI research advisors. In particular, we would like to thank several friends and advisors who reviewed this book and provided important guidance. They include Martin Baily, Richard Cooper, Howard Davies, John Manzoni, Michael Spence, and Adair Turner. We would also like to thank the previous leaders of MGI, Diana Farrell, Fred Gluck, Ted Hall, Herb Henzler, Bill Lewis, Lenny Mendonca, Ken Ohmae, and Charles Roxburgh.
For anecdotes, pointers, guidance, and constant reality checks, we turned to our colleagues in industry and functional practices. The contributions of several of our colleagues went above and beyond. We would particularly like to thank Patrick Viguerie, Elizabeth Stephenson, and Yuval Atsmon from McKinsey’s Strategy and Corporate Finance Practice and Paul Wilmott from the Business Technology Office for their input throughout the process.
On its journey from a collection of ideas and observations to a coherent book, the manuscript went through several iterations and a meticulous internal editorial and review process. Janet Bush, David Gasca, Sree Ramaswamy, Andrea Zitna, and João Leite led this effort, working closely with a team of McKinsey consultants, which included Renan Andrade, Nathan Kaplan, and Wonhoe Koo.
Our colleagues at McKinsey Publishing run an operation that continually refines the raw materials of economic and industrial research into accessible final papers and reports. Rik Kirkland shepherded this project from conception to completion and helped us negotiate the publishing world. The team at McKinsey Quarterly enabled us to air portions of the arguments in this book. We’d like in particular to thank Allen Webb, Frank Comes, and Mike Borruso. And as is the case with all our publications, MGI’s editorial and communications team—Tim Beacom, Janet Bush, Marisa Carder, Geoff Lewis, Julie Philpot, Lisa Renaud, and Rebeca Robboy—have provided support and advice to help ensure our research reaches the broadest possible audience.
We also relied on some key editorial professionals to polish the manuscript and its exhibits. Our special thanks goes to Daniel Gross, whose elegant editing and first-rate instincts contributed enormously to the final shape of the book. Sari Sapon helped bring the exhibits to life. Marie Morris copyedited the manuscript.
PublicAffairs is a publisher whose standards and ambitions align with our own. Founder Peter Osnos and publisher Clive Priddle saw the potential for this book from the outset. John Mahaney provided early insights and advice on the thrust of our argument and expertly edited the book. The manuscript was copyedited by Kate Mueller, and Timm Bryson worked diligently to create a visually appealing book.
Finally, much of this book was written on weekends. We would like to thank our families for putting up with this intrusion into family time.
James, San Francisco
Jonathan, Shanghai
Richard, London