Anticipating ISIS
DANA PITTARD
Re-taking the Mosul Dam with a combined Iraqi and Kurdish force was an amazing achievement. Following the halting of their offensive against Erbil, the relief of the Kurdish and Yazidi refugees on Sinjar Mountain, and their defeat at Mosul Dam, ISIS had lost some momentum in northern Iraq. However, they still retained Iraq’s second largest city, Mosul.
At the same time, ISIS was becoming even more aggressive in other areas of Iraq and Syria. Lieutenant General Terry and General Austin wondered where ISIS would strike next. They wanted to know what the Iraqi leaders were thinking. I recommended offensive operations to keep ISIS on its heels, but both Generals Terry and Austin truly believed that the earliest the Iraqis would be capable of conducting coordinated attacks would be in the spring or summer of 2015.
I respectfully disagreed. I thought differently based on what I could see on the ground in Iraq. Colonels Ed Abisellan and Eric Timmerman were of the same mind as me—now was the best time to attack, at a time and a place of our choosing so we could throw ISIS off balance. We developed a tentative plan with Brigadier General Castellvi in Erbil to continue counterattacking ISIS. We just needed to convince the Iraqis and the Kurds to keep up the pressure as well.
At the Iraqi Ministry of Defense, I listened as General Kenani and the senior Iraqi generals argued over where ISIS would attack next. Their discussions all centered on beefing up the defenses of various strategic locations around Iraq. Many said it would be Baghdad, some said Haditha Dam, others said Kirkuk, and still others said the holy Shia city of Karbala or Diyala Province.
Later that evening over hot sweetened chai tea, I met privately with General Kenani and my old friend, Major General Falah—the vice chief of the Iraqi Air Force. General Falah had served as my cultural advisor for an entire year during a previous tour in Iraq (2006-2007). Along with my former aide-de-camp Captain Mike Hastings, we had literally worked together every day for a year and we’d all become good friends. He was now the second in command of the Iraqi Air Force.
“Sadey,” I said, “I thought the meeting today was very interesting.”
General Kenani replied, “Yes, it is difficult to determine where Daesh will attack next, but we must be prepared.”
I obviously had a quizzical look on my face. Noticing this, Kenani set down his tea and frowned. “What is it, General Pittard? Do you disagree?”
Here we go, I thought. “Sadey, respectfully, we must place the burden of the dilemma on ISIS. The only way we will continue to stop them is to attack at multiple locations. We must choose the time and place to attack. ISIS must be forced to react to your actions.” I remained silent to let my words settle in.
General Kenani shook his head. “But we are not ready to go on the offense! The Iraqi Army must be rebuilt, re-equipped, and re-trained. You saw how we failed in Tikrit two months ago and the disaster in Mosul in early June.”
I sipped some hot chai, then gently placed the small glass down on the table. I looked directly at General Kenani. “You don’t need much new equipment, and the Iraqi Army is better trained than most ISIS fighters. What you need is the will to fight. If you and the other leaders have the will to fight and you add the power of our airstrikes—you will be unstoppable! You must take away ISIS’ current option to attack wherever they please. We must attack them at multiple locations. ISIS is overextended, now is the time to strike before they are ready again to attack you.”
General Kenani sat back in his chair and pondered a moment. “How will we know you will support us with airstrikes? The U.S. only seems to want to support the Kurds and not the rest of Iraq.”
“Sadey,” I replied, “if the Iraqi Army attacks ISIS we will provide air support. We are in this together.”
I knew it was a slight stretch because I didn’t then have full authority to support the Iraqis with airstrikes, only the Kurds. But I knew that if the Iraqis aggressively conducted counterattacks against ISIS then I could convince, and practically shame, CENTCOM and the Obama administration into supporting them.
Still, it had to be a strategic level objective similar in significance to Mosul Dam. It had to be somewhere like Baghdad, the Haditha Dam, the Bayji Oil Refinery, or some other area of great importance.
“Sadey, I recommend you counterattack ISIS near the Haditha Dam. We’ve received intelligence they’re preparing to seize the dam in three weeks.”
Kenani scowled, shaking his head. “Haditha Dam! That is way too far to the west in Al Anbar Province. That will be extremely difficult, if not impossible.”
I looked at him, remaining calm but resolute. “Sadey, we are with you. The United States is with you.”
The general stroked his chin and thought, holding my stare with his own. After a few seconds he nodded. “I trust you, General Pittard. If you can ensure we have American air support, we will begin planning for an offensive operation to reinforce Haditha.”
I told him I would deliver.
General Kenani stood and walked over to the large map of Iraq on his wall. “Before we go to Haditha, though, I need your help with airstrikes in another area.”
I felt a pinch in my gut. I thought, where the hell is he going with this?
Kenani continued, “There is a Shia-Turkmen town in the far eastern part of the Salah ad-Din Province called Amerli that has been surrounded by ISIS since June. They cannot hold out much longer. ISIS will slaughter thousands of innocents when they capture the town.”1
I gazed at the map before answering. “Amerli is where ISIS may expect you to go because it’s a Shia town. ISIS will not be expecting you to attack them at Haditha Dam since it’s a Sunni tribal area. We will possibly lose the element of surprise in Amerli.”
Kenani was adamant. “The political and military ramifications of losing Amerli are too great to ignore, General Pittard. I need your help.”
My old friend, Major General Falah—who had been sitting quietly through our exchange—finally chimed in. “My dear brother, General Pittard, the Americans and the coalition helped the Kurdish and Yazidi people in northern Iraq when they were surrounded on Sinjar Mountain. What about the Shia-Turkmen people surrounded in Amerli? If you are able to help us lift the ISIS siege of Amerli, it would allow us to get more political support from our civilian leaders, who are mainly Shia, for the offensive at Haditha Dam.”
General Kenani nodded in agreement. Deep down I knew that what they said made sense. I thought about it for a moment, then told them that I would do what I could to help with Amerli, but no promises.
1 Michael Higgins, “Amerli – ‘Iraq’s other humanitarian crisis’: A few hundred fighters fighting to protect town from ISIS jihadists,” National Post, August 15, 2014, accessed April 24, 2018, http://nationalpost.com/news/amerli-iraqs-other-humanitarian-crisis-a-few-hundred-fighters-fighting-to-protect-town-from-isis-jihadists.