Notes

Chapter 1

Page
3 Kirkuk: Zoepf and Dagher 2008.
3 Proxy battles: Slackman 2009.
3 Beirut clash: New York Times 1980a,b; Associated Press 1980.
4 Diminished dramatically: This paragraph is adapted from Goldstein and Pevehouse 2011: 83.
4 Cuéllar: Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: 14, 13, 7; Sivard 1982 gives a list of wars in progress then.
5 Chemical weapons: White phosphorus, whose recent use has raised controversy, is not classified as a chemical weapon in the main body of the chemical weapons convention. See fas.org/programs/bio/factsheets/whitephosphorus.html.
6 Interlude before new. . . . wars: Goldstein 1991: 324 suggests that an upcoming lull in war could offer a chance to break the cycle of recurrent great-power wars. See also Goldstein 1988: 349–50.
6 Angell: Angell 1910: vii.
8 French UN peacekeepers: Rieff 1995: 150–51.
9 Mature understanding: Worldpublicopinion.org 2007: 9–10, 5.
10 War was a common occurrence: Blight and McNamara 2001: 21.
10 May well be underestimates: Blight and McNamara 2001: 26.
10 UN Charter: Blight and McNamara 2001: 153, 154.

Chapter 2

13 Data-set on battle-related deaths: These and later battle-death data are from PRIO version 3.0; see Lacina and Gleditsch 2005 and www.prio.no/CSCW/Datasets/Armed-Conflict/Battle-Deaths/. Midpoint of low and high estimates used when no “best estimate” given.
13 Extremely lethal: O’Hanlon 2003: 27; see also Sivard 1993: 20.
13 IDPs appeared to jump: See, e.g., the graph on p. 7 of UNHCR 2009.
14 Newly displaced. . . . return home: UNHCR data; UNHCR 2009: 19–21; see also Harff and Gurr 2004: xii.
14 Child soldier recruitment: Polgreen 2008c.
14 Global Peace Index: Accessed 6/8/10 at www.visionofhumanity.org/gpi-data/#/2010/scor/.
14 Brookings: Livingston et al. 2010.
15 Peace factors: Kriesberg 2007: 99–101, 113.
15 Intractable: Crocker, Hampson, and Aall 2005: 3–4.
16 Fatality totals by war: PRIO battle-death data, see Lacina and Gleditsch 2005; Bethany Lacina, personal communication, October 2010.
18 War on terrorism: Allison 2004.
18 Mind-boggling 30,000: Data from Federation of American Scientists and National Resource Defense Council, reported in New York Times, April 8, 2010.
18 Fallen in just twenty-five years: In addition, each side has several thousand weapons waiting in line to be dismantled.
18 U.S. tactical nuclear: Norris and Kristensen 2011.
18 Storage facilities: Norris and Kristensen 2009: 86.
18–19 Incredible accomplishment: Easterbrook 2003: 70.
19 Doomsday clock: Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 2007.
19 Total number of refugees: UNHCR 2000: 310. Higher numbers mentioned earlier include internally displaced persons.
19–20 Warned West Point cadets: Shanker 2011.
20 Global turmoil: Mearsheimer 1990: 6; Kaplan 1994; Brzezinski 1993; see also Cooper 2003: vii, 5, 25, 83.
20 Ghastly and persistent: Collier 2009: 7, 3, 4; O’Hanlon 2003: 2.
20 Mention that violence is decreasing: Crocker, Hampson, and Aall 2007; Brown 2007: 39; King 2007: 115; Gurr 2007: 133, 134, 151; Urquhart 2007: 265; O’Hanlon 2007: 323; Freedman 2007: 261.
20 No less dangerous: Solomon 2007: xi; Crocker, Hampson, and Aall 2007: 6.
21 Rape of Nanking: Chang 1997; Rummel 1991: 6–7; see also Slim 2008: 236.
21 Aerial bombardment: Slim 2008: 56–57.
21 Dresden. . . . raid: Taylor 2004: 448.
21 Fifty German cities. . . . Tokyo: Slim 2008: 57; Downes 2008: 116–17.
22 Burning flesh: Downes 2008: 116.
22 Bombed sixty-four Japanese cities: Downes 2008: 117.
22 Bomber Command: Markusen and Kopf 1995: 12, 13.
22 Passchendaele: Quigley 1966: 231.
22 British naval blockade: Markusen and Kopf 1995: 30; Downes 2008: 84 estimates half a million German deaths and a similar number of Austrians.
23 Most war-torn century: Ferguson 2006: iv, 647; Valentino 2004: 1; Carnegie Commission 1997: 11; Luard 1986: 394.
23 No scientific basis: Payne 2004: 10–11.
23 Incidentally China: Rummel 1991: 3.
23 Many writers equate: Holsti 1996: 36; Ferguson 2006: lxxi, 596; see also Brzezinski 1993: 4–5, 7.
23 87 million war deaths: Brzezinski 1993: 9. Leitenberg 2006: 8 has 136–149 million total.
24 Relative tranquility: Schroeder 2006: 36–40 calls the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries peaceful, but he focuses on Austria, Germany, and Russia, not worldwide.
24 Political science databases: Levy 1983: 113; Payne 2004.
24 Taiping: McEvedy and Jones 1978: 167 show a population decline of 20 million in 1850–75.
24 Yunnan Province: Rummel 1994: 53.
24 Confederate general: Quoted in Markusen and Kopf 1995: 27.
25 Percent of GDP in Western countries: Gat 2006: 524–27.
25 Erosion of . . . . rules of conduct: Jackson 1999: 49; 123, 124, 130, 137, 139.
25 As the war dragged on: Jackson 1999: 149, 150, 153, 155.
25–26 Atrocities were not uncommon: Downes 2008: 156–77; Midlarsky 2005: 33; Jackson 1999: 11.
26 Dahomey: Forbes 1851.
26 Massacre is not: Slim 2008: 3, 46.
26 Deliberately intended: Slim 2008: 39, 40.
26 Warfare and genocide: Markusen and Kopf 1995: 21; see also Holsti 1991: 84, 102, 142.
26 Thirty Years’ War: Wedgwood 1938: 525, 511, 516; Markusen and Kopf 1995: 24; Friedrichs 1997: 188, 189.
27 Mortality among the civilian population: Wedgwood 1938: 516, 512–13.
27 Those Germans who survived: Parker 1997: 170; Friedrichs 1997: 192, 188.
27 Losses in battle: Parker 1997: 182, 183.
27 Frequent brutality: Friedrichs 1997: 187.
27 Manchu: McEvedy and Jones 1978: 167, 52; see also Goldstone 1993: 390–91.
27 Experts have puzzled: Heijdra 1998: 436–37; Peterson 2002: 5; Rowe 2002: 475; Myers and Wang 2002: 565.
27 Brutality of colonial wars: Wills 1998: 358; Cook 1998: 1, 5; see also Slim 2008: 101.
28 Conquistadors: Cook 1998: 3.
28 Las Casas. . . . Devastation caused by diseases: Cook 1998: 2, 10–11.
28 Warfare. . . . was extremely prevalent: Luard 1986: 25.
28 English warfare: Prestwich 1996: 11, 115, 4.
28 Limoges: Jean Froissart, quoted in Prestwich 1996: 219.
28–29 Not easy to reconcile: Prestwich 1996:219, 231, 318, 161, 296.
29 Destruction of the property and lives: Prestwich 1996:240, 242, 243; see also Tuchman 1978: 81, 83.
29 Actual battles: Prestwich 1996: 328, 330–32, 239.
29 Siege warfare saw the worst atrocities: Prestwich 1996: 303; Eckhardt 1989: 94; Bradbury 1992: 298, 329; see also Downes 2008: 19.
30 Alençon: Bradbury 1992: 53–54; see also 321.
30 Massacres and mutilations: Bradbury 1992: 319, 322.
30 The Crusades: Slim 2008: 47; Bradbury 1992: 319, 192, 195, 318, 297.
30 War between groups that hated each other: Bradbury 1992: 331; see also 227, 320; 323–24.
31 Outside Europe: Bradbury 1992: 319.
31 Genghis Khan: Rummel 1994: 49; Man 2004: 200 estimates that Samarkand’s population was reduced by more than 250,000.
31 Urgench. . . . Nishapur: Man 2004: 174; Rummel 1994: 46.
31 Mongols killed.... in Merv: Rummel 1994: 49; Slim 2008: 48. Note that Rummel also refers to “Meru Chahjan,” leading others to add this as a different city, but Meru is another name for Merv.
31 Pearl of Central Asia: Man 2004: 174, 176.
31 Khan’s biographer: Man 2004: 177–80.
32 In China, the Mongol’s scale of killing: Rummel 1994: 49–51; Man 2004: 254, 262.
32 Campaign to Europe: Bradbury 1992: 319; Slim 2008: 48–49; Man 2004: 267; Markusen and Kopf 1995: 23; see also Rummel 1994: 50.
32 Toynbee: Quoted in Markusen and Kopf 1995: 24; also in Rummel 1994: 50–51.
33 Not the only massacring army: Rummel 1994: 60, 63.
33 An Shi Rebellion: Sorokin 1925/1967: 199–200; Parker 1903: 25–26; McEvedy and Jones 1978: 167; Twitchett 1979: 453–63, esp.455; Peterson 1979; 478, 485.
33 Byzantium: Eckhardt 1992: 63.
33 Normal part of medieval war: Bradbury 1992: 325, 324, 327.
34 Pinker: Pinker 2007: 19; see Pinker 2011.
34 Carthage: Quoted in Markusen and Kopf 1995: 23.
34 Raping of women: Slim 2008: 60, 61, 234; Anderlini 2007: 30–31; see Wood 2009; Goldstein 2001: 362–71.
34 Looting was the norm: Slim 2008: 94, 96–97.
35 Dynastic transitions: McEvedy and Jones 1978: 167.
35 Assyrian Empire: Markusen and Kopf 1995: 22; Dupuy and Dupuy 1993: 10, 11.
35 Sumerian. . . . Uruk: Guilaine and Zammit 2005: 1–3.
35 Eastern Mediterranean: Guilaine and Zammit 2005: 4; Dupuy and Dupuy 1993: 4; but see Eckhardt 1992: 145, 169.
36 Downward trend: Levy 1983: 131, 132.
36 Upward trend: Eckhardt 1992: 130–31, 108, 127, 128.
36 No trend: Sorokin 1937: 347; Sarkees, Wayman, and Singer 2003; Clark 2007: 128.
36 Gat: Gat 2006: 535.
36 Nearly triple: Markusen and Kopf 1995: 32–33; see Eckhardt 1991: 438; 440.
36 One recent analysis: Sarkees and Wayman 2010: 562, 567, 569, 3; but see Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 155; see also Schroeder 2006: 36–40; Väyrynen 2006; Thompson 2006.
36 Luard: Luard 1986: 395, 396, 399, 5, 9–10.
36 Various scholars have tried: White 2003 provides exemplary source notes and a variety of estimates; see also Wright 1942/1965: 1542, 665, 243–44 n.64, 658–61, 245; Gat 2006: 131–32; Wedgwood 1938: 516.
37 4 billion total deaths: Summation of annual data from White 2003.
37 1.5 percent of deaths: The 4 billion total deaths may be an underestimate, which would make the war deaths an even smaller percentage; Steven Pinker, personal communication, October 2010.
37 Corresponding guesses: Eckhardt 1991: 438, from McEvedy and Jones 1978.
37 Nine European countries: Sorokin 1937: 273, 341; reprinted in Wright 1942/1965: 656.
37 Greek and Roman. . . . guessy: Sorokin 1937: 47, 346–47, 295, 296, 297, 303.
38 Not so uniquely bloody: Ferguson 2006: 649–53.
38 Common and deadly: LeBlanc 2003: 8; see also Martin and Frayer eds. 1997.
38 Thirty-one hunting-gathering societies: Ember 1978: 444.
38 Time and time again: LeBlanc 2003: 154; see also Keeley 1996; Gat 2006: 131; Payne 2004: 76–77.
38 Estimates of hunter-gatherers’ mortality: Gat 2006: 129–30; See also Clark 2007: 125; LeBlanc 2003: 150, 151. LeBlanc 2003: 127 reports a “25 percent warfare death rate” for the Murngin.
39 Southern California: LeBlanc 2003: 9, 154.
39 Archaeology in North America: Krech 1994: 14; LeBlanc 2003: 199; see also Bamforth 1994; Gat 2006: 130–31; Chacon and Mendoza eds. 2007.
39 Detailed evidence from archaeology: LeBlanc 2003: 12–13, 6, xi, xii, xiii, 223, 230.
40 Three continents: LeBlanc 2003: xii–xiii, 126, 154.
40 Embedded projectile points: Keeley 1996: viii.
40 LeBlanc argues that tribal societies: LeBlanc 2003: 155, 186, 187, 198, 191, 217, 218.
40 At the state level: LeBlanc 2003: 191, 193–94.
40 Talheim: Guilaine and Zammit 2005: 86, 87.
41 Austria. . . . Mannheim. . . . France: Guilaine and Zammit 2005: 91–93, 241–49, Appendix 1 by Maryvonne Naudet and Raymond Vidal.
41 Grave site in Sudan: Guilaine and Zammit 2005: 67–72.
41 Rock paintings: Gat 2006: 27–29, 18; see also LeBlanc 2003: 114.
41 These Australians: Gat 2006: 17–18.
41 Neolithic men: Dupuy and Dupuy 1993: 1.
42 Neanderthals: LeBlanc 2003: 96–97.
42 Deep-seated forces: Goldstein 1988.

Chapter 3

45 Win the peace: Ruggie 1996: 28–29.
46 Dumbarton Oaks: Hilderbrand 1990: 67; Ruggie 1996: 28–34; see also doaks.org/about/the_dumbarton_oaks_conversations.html.
46 Temporary headquarters: Rosenthal 1995; Meisler 1995: 34.
46 Bunche. . . . main architect: Urquhart 1993: 22; see also www.library.ucla.edu/bunche.
46–47 Bunche. . . . childhood.... professorship: Urquhart 1993: 134–35.
47 Win the confidence of postcolonial leaders: Urquhart 1993: 221–22.
47 UNSCOP. . . . lightweight: Urquhart 1993: 142.
47 They were to visit Palestine: Urquhart 1993: 142, 144.
47 UNSCOP first went to Jerusalem: Urquhart 1993: 143, 288.
48 Terrible mess of things: Urquhart 1993: 146.
48 Appointing a special representative: Meisler 1995: 39; Kennedy 2006: 80.
48 Chartered a DC-3: Urquhart 1993: 159, 160.
48 Appointed Chief Representative: Urquhart 1993: 249, 168, 171.
49 Shot him dead: Urquhart 1993: 178, 180.
49 Created a new enterprise: Urquhart 1993: 160–61, 169; UNSC 50, S/801, May 29, 1948.
49 Principle was to remain neutral: Urquhart 1993: 161, 170, 185.
50 Painted its vehicles: Urquhart 1993: 161.
50 Early UN peacekeeping missions: Urquhart 1993: 161.
50 The 1,000 armed UN guards: Urquhart 1993: 161–62, 203.
51 150 military observers: http://www.un.org/depts/dpko/missions/untso/background.html, accessed 6/23/09.
51 Nobel Peace Prize: Urquhart 1993: 231.
51 Not everyone appreciated: Urquhart 1993: 235, 247.
51 President Truman: Urquhart 1993: 247.
51 Soviet Union was no friend: Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: 7, 8.
52 By May 1954: Urquhart 1993: 253–55.
52 Severest test: Urquhart 1972: 6–7.
52–53 Someone weak: Linnér 2008: 29; Urquhart 1972: 15.
53 Exemplify the ideal: Linnér 2008: 28; Traub 2006a: 10.
53 Back on the job: Urquhart 1993: 265.
53 Lester Pearson: Urquhart 1993: 265–67.
54 Troubling.... disturbing: Kennedy 2006: 82.
54 Masterpiece: Urquhart 1993: 267; see also Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 99; Diehl 2008: 42–45.
54 Landmark event: Kennedy 2006: 81, 82; see also Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 12.
54 Teasing him: Sir Brian Urquhart, personal communication, September 2010.
54 Corporal. . . . noncontroversial countries: Urquhart 1993: 266, 270, 267.
54 Commonwealth: Kennedy 2006: 83.
54 New principles and rules: Urquhart 1993: 266.
54–55 Many details stood between: Urquhart 1993: 172–73, 269.
55 Signature look: Rubinstein 2008: 72.
55 Fully independent: UNEF n.d.
55 Supply of food: Urquhart 1993: 269; see also Rubinstein 2008: 22, Traub 2006a: 12.
55 Bunche’s conference room: Urquhart 1993: 268, 269.
55–56 Moving quickly was paramount: Urquhart 1993: 268, 270.
56 Status-of-forces: UNEF n.d.
56 Fly only the UN flag: Urquhart 1993: 271–72.
56 Holy trinity: Diehl 2008: 57; see also UNDPKO 2008: 31.
56 Later undermine UNEF: UNEF n.d.
56 Political rhetoric: Rubinstein 2008: 22.
56 Purely temporary: UNEF n.d.
57 Spraying the minaret: Rubinstein 2008: 35.
57 Frontline of a moral force: Urquhart 1993: 271, 289, 272.
58 Used violence freely: Stanley 1879: 276; see also Driver 2001: 137.
58 Brutal efficiency: Urquhart 1993: 303.
58 Leopold’s personal rule: Hochschild 1998.
59 Leaderless mass: Urquhart 1993: 310.
59 Two weeks before independence: Urquhart 1993: 308; Urquhart 1972: 401.
59 Two weeks after independence: Urquhart 1972: 408.
60 Swiftness in arrival: Quoted in Urquhart 1993: 312.
60 Miraculously short time: Urquhart 1972: 401, 402.
60 Onusians: O’Brien 1962: 10–11.
61 Quite unlike anything: Urquhart 1972: 402.
61 Mandate was more expansive: See Diehl 2008: 45–47.
61 First aid to a wounded rattlesnake: Urquhart 1993: 312, 319, 320, 322.
61 Belgian channels to communicate: Urquhart 1972: 418–19.
61 Irish diplomat: O’Brien 1962. On his later controversial writings, see Guardian 2009.
62 Extraction of minerals for profit: O’Brien 1962: 65.
62 Stakes were high: Gibbs 1993.
62 Shinkolobwe: Zoellner 2009: 43, 50.
62 Big-po wer politics: Nkrumah 1960.
63 UN would not take sides: Urquhart 1972: 425; O’Brien 1962: 98.
63 Three or four heads: Linnér 2008: 25.
63 Short of clarity: Urquhart 1972: 403; see also Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 156–57.
63 Hammarskjöld flew to Katanga: Urquhart 1972: 427, 436.
64 Justify foreign intervention: See, e.g., Donnelly 2003: 179–80, 254–58.
64 Senseless slaughter: Urquhart 1972: 438.
64 Central government split: Urquhart 1972: 443, 452–53; Urquhart 1993: 337.
64 Khrushchev. . . . ill-concealed glee: Urquhart 1972: 459, 462, 486.
64–65 Even more isolated: Urquhart 1972: 490.
65 The “Congo Club”: O’Brien 1962: 204, 51.
65 Three Americans: O’Brien 1962: 50, 52, 53.
65 Back in the Congo: Urquhart 1993: 328, 329, 337.
66 Small apartment building: Urquhart 1972: 410.
66 Crisis-ridden: Urquhart 1993: 338.
66 Accused the UN of complicity: Urquhart 1993: 338, 340; Urquhart 1972: 506.
66–67 Passivity . . . . some joker in the UN: Urquhart 1972: 506, 507; Urquhart 1993: 339.
67 Atmosphere of horror: Urquhart 1972: 508, 509.
67 Massacred 44 peacekeepers: Kennedy 2006: 84.
67 By spring of 1961: Urquhart 1972: 515, 524.
67 Skilled personnel: Urquhart 1972: 518, 519, 525, 341.
67 UN shop in Katanga: O’Brien 1962: 98; Urquhart 1993: 346.
67–68 Used massive atrocities: O’Brien 1962: 146, 149.
68 Operation Rumpunch: O’Brien 1962: 220–21; see also Urquhart 1972: 556.
68 Indian and Swedish UN contingents: O’Brien 1962: 252–53, 1; Urquhart 1972: 567.
68 Squalid battle: Urquhart 1993: 342.
69 Encirclement of the Palace: O’Brien 1962: 256, 257.
69 UN’s military headquarters: O’Brien 1962: 270–71, 273, 276.
69 Foreign press pounded: O’Brien 1962: 266; Urquhart 1972: 572–73; Urquhart 1993: 343.
69 Toxic brew: O’Brien 1962: 278, 276.
69 Nuanced document: Urquhart 1993: 326.
70 Appointment of O’Brien: O’Brien 1962: 41.
70 An Irish diplomat: O’Brien 1962: 41–42; see Urquhart, 1972: 548.
71 Propellor DC- 6: Urquhart 1972: 587–93.
71 Sabotage theories: Rösiö 1993.
71 Hit the wrong plane: Sir Brian Urquhart, personal communication, September 2010.
71 Suspicions ran high: O’Brien 1962: 286–87; see also New York Times 1992; Rösiö 1993; Gibbs 1993.
71 21 UN soldiers killed: Urquhart 1993: 349–50.

Chapter 4

73 Foreseen transformational change: Rosenau 1990.
74 Positively triumphant: Barnett 2002: 22.
74 From 1948 to 1988: Kennedy 2006: 91.
74 Agenda for Peace: Boutros-Ghali 1992: 8, 11.
74 Peace-enforcement: Boutros-Ghali 1992: 25, 26; see Pugh 2007.
75 Killing 140,000: PRIO data; Lacina and Gleditsch 2005.
76 Underfunded and underpowered: Kennedy 2006: 94; see Howard 2008: 37–40.
76 Most vicious fighting: Howard 2008: 37, 38.
76 Final shootout: BBC News 2002.
76 Not rate much press: A New York Times article on p. 6, a paragraph next day on p. 9, and a few short paragraphs the third day on p. 12.
77 Somalia, the mission began: Howard 2008: 23–25; budget is for UNASOM I and II.
77 Mandate. . . . was deeply conflicted: Howard 2008: 26–27; see Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 152.
78 Black Hawk Down: Bowden 1999; also a 2001 movie.
78 Pivotal role: Rubinstein 2008: 4, 8.
78 Ended the starvation: Doyle, Johnstone, and Orr 1997: 5.
78 Proved totally ineffective: Kennedy 2006: 104.
79 Solid support: Howard 2008: 29, 87, 89, 50.
79 Honest and energetic: Des Forges 1999: 45, 46.
79 The rebels gained ground: Des Forges 1999: 96, 4, 109.
79 UNAMIR was created: Howard 2008: 29; Des Forges 1999: 17.
79 Success at low cost . . . . budget was not approved: Des Forges 1999: 18, 131–33.
80 Accords were actually implemented: Des Forges 1999: 131.
80 Operate without adequate resources: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 131.
80 You’ll get your APCs: Dallaire 2003: 331–32.
80 Definitive account: Des Forges 1999: 1, 2, 5.
81 Sent a telegram: Howard 2008: 32; Des Forges 1999: 18.
81 Narrowest possible interpretation: Des Forges 1999: 19, 172, 174–75.
81 Chaotic, spontaneous: Barnett 2002: 110.
81 Plane was shot down: Des Forges 1999: 6, 181.
81 Massive but systematic campaign: Des Forges 1999: 8, 10, 215.
81 In the first days: Des Forges 1999: 206–08, 212.
81–82 At one church.... little success: Des Forges 1999: 212, 297.
82 Clergy: Des Forges 1999: 245–47.
82 Half a million persons: Quotes are from Des Forges 1999: 15–16.
82 Uppsala: Sundberg 2009: 17.
82 On a much smaller scale: Des Forges 1999: 692.
82 Brutally massacred. . . . crippling: Howard 2008: 32.
82 Give me the means: Both quoted in Des Forges 1999: 598.
83 Cupboards were bare: Dallaire 2003: 264.
83 Contingent from Bangladesh: Dallaire 2003: 272–73.
83 On the fifth day: Dallaire 2003: 289–90.
83 And then departed: Des Forges 1999: 7; see also 606.
83 Running out of ammunition: Barnett 2002: 100.
83 Toward the apocalypse: Dallaire 2003: 293.
83 Drastically scale back: Dallaire 2003: 291, 295.
83–84 Dallaire later estimated: Des Forges 1999: 22, 607.
84 Already in the capital: Des Forges 1999: 606, 608.
84 Stopped the massacres: Quoted in Des Forges 1999: 607.
84 Objective was forgotten: Quoted in Des Forges 1999: 600.
84 Attempts were subverted: Howard 2008: 32.
84 Jamming: Des Forges 1999: 25.
84 Avoid the word: Des Forges 1999: 19, 595; Barnett 2002: 3.
84 One bright spot: Dallaire 2003: 296, 297.
84–85 Mille Collines: Dallaire 2003: 302.
85 Bravery of the Tunisians: Dallaire 2003: 302, 296.
85 Captain from Senegal: Des Forges 1999: 610.
85 Ultimately, the UN just pulled out: Des Forges 1999: 617, 618, 22.
85–86 When evacuating UN peacekeepers: Des Forges 1999: 611, 610.
86 Bad timing: Howard 2008: 29; see also Barnett 2002: 13; Traub 2006a: 53.
86 A more traditional approach: Both quoted in Barnett 2002: 116, 74.
86 Sad ending: Des Forges 1999: 23; Prunier 1999: 301, 302.
86 We were manipulated: Des Forges 1999: 24, 668–81, 681, 687–88.
86 English-speaking: Des Forges 1999: 117–19, 670.
87 Tribunal for Rwanda: Des Forges 1999: 738, 739, 761; BBC News 2008b.
87 Bosnia: That is, the Republic of Bosnia and Herzegovina.
87–88 Many times in the war years: For a contrary view, see Gibbs 2009.
88 Defend Bosnia’s integrity: Picco 1999: 297.
88 No secret of his distaste: Traub 2006a: 43; Picco 1999: 37.
89 Safe areas: Traub 2006a: 50, 44, 47.
89 Scenes from hell: Quoted in Meisler 2007: 115.
90 Dayton: Daalder 2000.
90 Most important test: Shawcross 2000: 147.
91 In 2005, . . . considerable progress: Cousens and Harland 2006: 49.
91 Equivalent of post-traumatic: Traub 2006a: 124.
91 Stories of success: Howard 2008: xi. Doyle and Sambanis (2006: 21) list as failures Somalia, Bosnia, Rwanda, and Cyprus, and list as successes Congo, El Salvador, Cambodia, Croatia, Brcko (in Bosnia), and East Timor.
92 UN’s first return: Durch 2006a: 3.
92 Differed from all previous: Howard 2008: 52.
92 First of five: Fortna and Howard 2008: 293.
92–93 Finally began in 1989: Howard 2008: 53–56, 64, 67.
93 South Africa tried to subvert: Krasno 2003a: 48–49.
94 The remarkable cooperation: Howard 2008: 77–80; Krasno 2003a: 47–48.
94 Tight timetable: Howard 2008: 81, 83.
94 Success stories: Krasno 2003a: 25.
94 El Salvador the UN came in: Howard 2008: 92, 97, 129.
95 Key figure: Howard 2008: 99, 98.
95 Had a clear mandate: Howard 2008: 101–03.
95 Truth Commission: Howard 2008: 108.
96 UN’s police work: Howard 2008: 112–14.
96 Land reform: Howard 2008: 118–21.
96 Similarly, elections: Howard 2008: 122–25; Wood 2000; Wood 2003a: 30.
97 Mixed results. . . . peace talks began: Howard 2008: 131–32, 137.
97–98 The mission lasted eighteen months: Howard 2008: 138.
98–99 An immediate. . . . hostages four times: Howard 2008: 144–49, 151–52, 155.
99 The Khmer Rouge withdrew: Howard 2008: 139, 167–73.
99 UNTAC did not end political violence: Howard 2008: 171, 173, 176.
99–100 The experience gained: Howard 2008: 231–33, 258, 245–46, 249–51, 225; Boothby 2003: 121–23, 127, 129.
100 Paradigm-setting: Doyle, Johnstone, and Orr 1997: 2, 20.
100–01 The UN mission in Mozambique: Howard 2008: 179, 184–85, 189.
101 Sant-Egidio: Giro n.d.
101 Offered itself as mediator: Howard 2008: 191.
101 Both sides asked the UN: Howard 2008: 187.
101–02 An overtaxed, divided: Salomons 2003: 83, 96.
102 High degree of autonomy: Howard 2008: 198–99, 196.
102 Assessed that money could: Howard 2008: 197, 199; Salomons 2003: 112.
102 Another trust fund: Howard 2008: 202; Salomons 2003: 109–10.
102–03 After the UN departed: Salomons 2003: 111; Howard 2008: 219–21.
103 The two sets side by side: 1990 population data from UN Population Division 2009.
104 In addition to the consent: Howard 2008: 8, 10, 15, 16, 19; Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 2; see also Autesserre 2010: 8.
104 Cultural learning that must occur: Rubinstein 2008: 36, 107.
104 Peace missions also need: Rubinstein 2008: 37, 51, 89; see also 138.
105 Made a database: Fortna 2008: 2, 3, 11; Fortna’s dataset is an expanded version of Doyle and Sambanis’s.
105 Evidence is overwhelming: Fortna 2008: 6, 9–10, 106, 116.
105 Resounding yes: Fortna and Howard 2008: 289; Fortna 2008: 125.
105 Several pathways: Fortna 2008: 9, 102.
105–06 Despite these positive outcomes: Fortna 2008: 24, 44; see also Regan 2000: 39; Fortna and Howard 2008: 290; Collier 2009: 84.
106 Separate but parallel: Collier 2009: 83, 95.
106 Very good value: Collier 2009: 96, 97, 99.
106 Reversion to war: Collier 2009: 75, 88.
106 Markedly improved: Griffin 2003: 214.
106 Built a data-set: Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 72, 126; see Durch 2006a: 13–16.
106–07 Roland Paris: Paris 2004: 19, 6, ix, 5, 89, 95, 111, 113, 145–46, 223.
107 The case of Nicaragua: Paris 2004: 139, 118–20; Paris 2009a: 58.
107–08 Daniel Ortega: BBC News 2006.
108 To Paris’s credit: Paris 2009b: 108.

Chapter 5

109 Famine to feast: Weiss et al. 2007: 76.
109 Launched just two. . . . guessed: Durch 2006a: 5, 28.
110 Roller-coaster ride: Meisler 2007: 25, 43, 44, 53.
110 With the rapid expansion: Meisler 2007: 59, 60.
110 Steamroller. . . . euphoria: Quoted in Meisler 2007: 61.
110–11 In February 1993: Meisler 2007: 64–65, 69, 71, 76, 107, 110.
111 Far overshadowed. . . . flies commercial: Meisler 2007: 115, 117.
111 Turn the UN key: Meisler 2007: 117.
111 Historic decision: Traub 2006a: 64.
111 Gutsy performance: Shawcross 2000: 181.
111 Shipping a rival: Meisler 2007: 120.
111–12 France agreed to support Annan: Meisler 2007: 140, 142–43.
112 Most popular figure: Traub 2006a: xi.
112 Grey-haired African men: William Shawcross quoted in Meisler 2007: 227.
112 Muppets: Meisler 2007: 204, 211.
112 After the September 11: Meisler 2007: 207, 275, 4, 3.
112 Hiccuped, coughed: Traub 2006a: xii.
112–13 Vieira de Mello: Power 2008.
113 Blew it up: BBC News 2003. Reports that Vieira de Mello said “Don’t let them pull the UN out” to rescuers while he was dying under the rubble are doubtful; see Power 2008: 499–500.
113 The worst day: Traub 2006a: 196; see Power 2008: 451–95.
113 Discouragement: Meisler 2007: 264; ; see also Traub 2006a: 197.
113 Zombies: Power 2008: 506.
113 Depressed funk: Meisler 2007: 282–83.
113 More than hang on: Durch 2006a: 30.
113 Annan’s tenure: Meisler 2007: 316, 317.
114 Various missions use: Durch 2006a: 7.
114 Do not fit neatly: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 13.
114–15 More complex: Fortna and Howard 2008: 285; Rubinstein 2008: 19; 34, 17; see Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 14–15.
115 In addition to peacekeeping: Mingst and Karns 2007: 89.
115 Greater institutional capacity: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 49, 50.
115–16 The report calls for: Brahimi et al. 2000.
116 Regarding headquarters staff: Brahimi et al. 2000: 32, 30.
116 Would dream of: Traub 2006a: 128.
116 Refined recommendations on deployment times: Durch 2006b: 589; see also Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 50–51.
116 Golden hour: Dobbins et al. 2007: 15.
116 Start from scratch: Urquhart 2007: 274–75; see Weiss et al. 2007: 128.
116–17 Deployment now takes: Durch 2006b: 589; see also Rubinstein 2008: 29.
117 Other major, recurring problems: Durch 2006b: 576, 588; see also Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 171, 183.
117 UN doubled the staff: Fortna and Howard 2008: 289.
117 Little progress has been made: Durch 2006a: 9.
117 Following up on the Brahimi: Weiss et al. 2007: 106, 115.
118 Killed off the idea: Weiss et al. 2007: 114.
118 They control two-thirds: Goldstein and Pevehouse 2011: 197.
118 Peacebuilding Commission: Weiss et al. 2007: 117, 118.
119 Less than $100 million: Source: UN Peacebuilding Fund, accessed 2009 at www.unpbf.org/. . I calculated per capita data using UN population data.
119 UN again restructured: UN 2008; Weiss 2009: 197.
119 Shaky organizational ground: Weiss et al. 2007: 17.
119–20 Bureaucracy can be convoluted: UN DPKO 2008: 94–100; Brahimi et al. 2000; Auteserre 2010: 88.
120 Unabashedly undemocratic: Barnett and Finnemore 2004: 172.
120 Ad hoc, political: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 14.
120 Kept vague: Rubinstein 2008: 27.
120 If a crisis erupts: Stephen Stedman, quoted in Traub 2006a: 313.
120 Conflict with DPA: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 49.
120 UN’s internal problems: Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: ix, x.
120 Walk on water: Boothby 2003: 131.
121 Pivotal position: Collier et al. 2003: 160–61; Dobbins et al.: 28–31.
121 Swedish study: Nilsson 2008.
121 May have knowledge: Kalyvas 2006: 392.
121 UN study: Muggah 2005; see also Toft 2009.
121 Most DDR processes: Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs 2006: 33, 34, 40.
122 Reform the security sector: Dobbins et al. 2007: 34–36; Hansen and Wiharta 2007.
122 Police Mission: EUPM website www.eupm.org/Overview.aspx.
123 Truth Commissions have been: Dobbins et al. 2007: 96; see Hayner 2001.
123 South African TRC: Cobban 2007: 9–12.
124 Work took six years: Cobban 2007: 112, 194–95, 202, 239.
124 Unsettle listeners: Payne 2008: 2; see Hayner 2001: 5, 183–205.
124 No other country has adopted: Payne 2008: 3, 4–5, 279.
124 What kind of peace: Anderlini 2007: 153–54.
125 Within the UN: Durch 2006a: 34–36.
125 Budget is divided: Durch 2006a: 38.
125 In terms of the size: Diehl 2008: 87–91.
125–26 Today’s UN missions draw on: Daniel and Wiharta 2008: 1; Daniel, Heuel, and Margo 2008: 29, 35; Heldt 2008: 21, 23.
126 Top fourteen contributing: Accessed 3/6/11 at www.un.org/en/peacekeeping/contributors/2011/jan11_1.pdf.
126 Four South Asian countries: Banerjee 2008: 188.
127 Bangladesh has specialized: Banerjee 2008: 187–95.
127 Military Staff Committee: Weiss et al. 2007: 17.
127 About 50,000 more: Sidhu 2007: 222.
127 UN had organized sixty-eight: Diehl 2008: 66.
128 Two types: Heldt 2008: 14, 10–12, 22–23; see Weiss et al. 2007: 120; Daniel and Wiharta 2008: 1.
128 Success rates: Heldt and Wallensteen 2006: 34–36.
128 UN Charter proposes: Pugh and Sidhu 2003: 3, 1.
128 Multinational Force and Observers: Rubinstein 2008: 25.
128–29 Some regional organizations: Coleman 2007: 8.
129 Single nation-state: Coleman 2007: 9.
129 ECOWAS intervention: Malan 2008: 91.
129 In sixteen other cases: Coleman 2007: 10, 56, 57.
129 In terms of one central, new: Howard 2008: 300.
130 New military doctrine: Durch 2006a: 12.
130 On call force: European Union 2007.
130 ESDP . . . . unproblematic: Giegerich 2008: 120–21, 126.
130 Greatest potential: Evans 2008: 183.
130 Rapid Reaction Force: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 43.
130–31 SHIRBRIG: Goldstein and Pevehouse 2011: 249; Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 149.
131 The European or American: Durch 2006a: 31, 33.
131 Other important regional: Diehl 2008: 71–74.
131 One problem with “subcontracting”: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 225.
131–32 Less international legitimacy: Coleman 2007: 2–4.
132 Overwhelming consensus: Evans 2008, quoted in Coleman 2007: 3.
132 Club members: Coleman 2007: 3, 19, 38.
132 For instance, the intervention of ECOWAS: Coleman 2007: 73, 78–79, 82.
132 Similarly, in 1998 Angola: Coleman 2007: 152, 151–55.
133 African regional organizations: Malan 2008: 90, 99.
133 AU forces in Somalia: Malan 2008: 100.
133 Most useful tool: Malan 2008: 109, 115.
133 Also, in Asia: Heldt 2008: 9, 16.
134 Lack basic capabilities: Malan 2008: 93, 94; Whitworth 2004.
134 AU mission in Darfur: Malan 2008: 97.
134 For the wrong reason: Dobbins et al. 2007: 10–12.
134 The United States, France: Malan 2008: 102–07.
135 So subcontracting: Weiss 2009: 134.

Chapter 6

137 A major success: Collier 2009: 85.
137 Immediately horrible: Shawcross 2000: 38, 40.
137 Journalists have questioned: See the summary in Rayman 2008.
137 Other child soldiers: Farah 2000.
138 Sudden noises: Beah 2007: 5.
138 When Beah was twelve: Critics say this happened in 1995 and Beah’s subsequent story took place over just a few months, not years.
138 Total confusion: Beah 2007: 9.
138 Things changed rapidly: Beah 2007: 29.
138 Signature atrocity: Slim 2008: 59; see also 158, 224.
138 Terrified of boys our age: Beah 2007: 37.
139 Easy as drinking water: Beah 2007: 121–22, 124.
139 World’s worst. . . . manipulated: Deng 2001.
139 One researcher. . . . armed conflicts: Singer 2001.
139 Followed orders better: Berman and Labonte 2006: 189.
139 Chadian: Polgreen 2008c.
140 Work here is done: Beah 2007: 128.
140 UNICEF staff were happy: Beah 2007: 129–30, 137, 138. Beah describes a lethal fight among recently demobilized boys from the RUF and government sides, but apparently exaggerates it; see Rayman 2008.
140 Be rehabilitated: Beah 2007: 161, 168–69, 181.
140 Post reporter: Farah 2000.
140 Victims or perpetrators: Berman and Labonte 2006: 190.
141 Mercedes-Benzes: Beah 2007: 187.
141 Conflict diamonds: Berman and Labonte 2006: 141; Renner 2002: 7; Collier et al. 2003: 143.
141 Foreign armies: Avant 2005: 82–98.
141 Gurkhas: Berman and Labonte 2006: 145.
141–42 Executive Outcomes: Avant 2005: 84–88, 91.
142 One visitor: Shawcross 2000: 203–04.
142 Sandline: Avant 2005: 93, 95.
142 RUF would be transformed: Berman and Labonte 2006: 147.
143 Timetable: Berman and Labonte 2006: 147.
143 Fire brigade: Tharoor 1995–96: 63; Shashi Tharoor quoted in Meisler 2007: 70.
143 Evidence surfaced: Berman and Labonte 2006: 147, 148.
144 ELOWAS. . . . ran out of money: Berman and Labonte 2006: 149–58.
144 Butchery paid off: Smillie and Minear 2004: 32.
144 UN sent a force of 6,000: Berman and Labonte 2006: 183–84.
145 Difficult time fielding: Berman and Labonte 2006: 167, 170.
145 Most dangerous.... fiasco: Traub 2006a: 119.
145 Came apart in 2000: Former UNAMSIL military official quoted in Berman and Labonte 2006: 179–80.
145 Bosnia redux: Traub 2006a: 120.
146 Children armed: Singer 2001.
146 Near impunity: Smillie and Minear 2004: 34.
146 Undermined the rebel: Berman and Labonte 2006: 182, 178.
146 Degree of contempt: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 38; see Collier 2007b: 128.
146 Britain’s success showed: Berman and Labonte 2006: 201; see Traub 2006a: 121.
146 On the 10th anniversary: BBC World News [TV], May 18, 2010.
147 Major sex scandal: Smillie and Minear 2004: 40, 41, 49.
147 Serve as a model: UN DPKO, 2005; see also Berman and Labonte 2006: 192–94.
147 The UN successfully: UN DPKO 2005.
147 Rarely met half: Smillie and Minear 2004: 23.
148 The UN had somewhat more success: UN DPKO 2005.
148 Initially disasters: Kennedy 2006: 108.
148 Integrated Office: UN DPKO 2005.
149 Fourteen rounds: Zartman 2005: 51.
149 Plenty of signs: Polgreen 2007a.
149 UN-occupied neutral zone: BBC News 2010a.
150 Generally stable: Ban 2009.
150 Lost Boys: Jal 2009.
150–51 Court of Arbitration: Otterman 2009.
152 Dual mission: Traub 2006a: 267, 240.
152 One single helicopter: Hoge 2007.
152–53 Ongoing in other regions: On recent peace operations worldwide, see Center on International Cooperation 2010, sponsored by the UN DPKO Best Practices Section.
153 Honestly meant: Kennedy 2006: 88.
154 LeRoy: Erlanger 2009.
155 Aouzou Strip: Azevedo 1998: 124–27.
156 Isaksson: Charlotte Isaksson, personal communication, January 2010.
156 All the help it could get: European Union 2006, 2007.
157 Kleptocracy: Transparency International, Seize Mobutu’s Wealth.... [Press release.] Berlin, May 15, 1997; Transparency International 2004.
158 Near complete collapse: worldbank.org “Country Brief,” “last updated October 2008.” 158 Cuban communist: Guevara 2000.
159 Persistent attacks: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 235.
159 Dramatic military gains: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 236.
159 Engulfed the Congo: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 236.
160 Certainly one motivation: UN Security Council 2002.
160 Congo Desk: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 241.
160 Uganda pursued a less: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 241, 243.
161 When Laurent Kabila still: Renner 2002: 27, 30.
161 Offshore oil wells: Renner 2002: 30.
161 Self-financing. . . . $5 billion: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 242.
161 Commissioned a report: UN Security Council 2002.
161 Late 2008, a reporter: Polgreen 2008d.
162 Two dozen peace initiatives: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 243.
162 Enormous military pressure: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 245.
162 Was paralyzed: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 247, 262.
163 The Lusaka signatories: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 230, 248, 249.
163 The UN was hardly: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 230, 246, 249, 248, 257, 259.
163–64 For years the UN held down: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 256–57, 260, 265, 266; see Lynch 2000.
164 The situation changed abruptly: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 250–55.
164 Substantial progress occurred: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 269, 270.
165 In Kisangani: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 271–72.
165 Beyond these specific: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 272, 273, 277.
165 At the end of 2002: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 231, 278.
165 Smaller, splinter militias: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 278, 255, 269, 279, 276–77; see U.S. Department of State 2004.
165–66 Ituri district: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 279, 281, 283.
166 Operation Artemis: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 231, 285, 284.
166 The Ituri crisis finally: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 231–32, 295.
167 Mandate was further expanded: MONUC n.d.
167 The UN force was drawn: Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 232, 299; see also 254.
167 During the Bukavu crisis: Traub 2006a: 341–42.
167 Main rival: Gettleman and Mwassi 2006.
167 Savimbi: Noble 1992.
167–68 Some fighting erupted: Economist Paul Collier makes too much of this incident; see Collier 2009: 85.
168 He was arrested: Simons 2008; BBC News 2009b.
168 Trouble continued: Polgreen 2007b, 2008b.
168 The UN learned: Traub 2006a: 349.
168 In 2008, an offensive: Gettleman 2008; Gettleman and MacFarquhar 2008.
168 Civilians threw rocks: Polgreen 2008e.
169 Resigned abruptly: New York Times 2008.
169 Leaders of Congo and Rwanda sat down: Gettleman 2009a.
170 The bad news: IRIN 2009; BBC News 2009a; Gettleman 2009b; Oxfam International 2009.
170 Clinton: McCrummen 2009.
170 One other group: Onyiego 2010.
170–71 Mandated MONUC to shift: UNSC Resolution 1856, December 22, 2008.
171 Autesserre knows: Autesserre 2008; Autesserre 2010. Autesserre, personal communication 2009.
171 Among her criticisms: Autesserre 2010: 84.
171 Pack of cookies: Autesserre 2010: 41.
171 Autesserre talked: Autesserre 2010: 1.
172 Autesserre’s central criticism: Autesserre 2010: 8, 177.
173 Clearly too small: Autesserre 2010: 18.
173 Just as in 1961: Autesserre 2010: 87.
173 Deplored a lack of financial: Autesserre 2010: 87, 182, citing Englebert and Tull 2008: 130.
174 MONUC’s multinational nature: Autesserre 2010: 88.
174 Language barriers.... Bukavu: Autesserre 2010: 89, 126.
174 Soldiers themselves: Autesserre 2010: 89–90.
175 Pacification: Mountain 2009.
175 Averted: Collier 2009: 98; see Autesserre 2010: 4, 14, 266.
175 Helped nineteen million: UN News Service 2010c.
175 MONUSCO: UN News Service 2010b.

Chapter 7

178 CIA officer: Stockwell 1991: 144.
179 Integral part of today’s: Weiss 2009: 9.
179 Most underestimated: Picco 1999: 3–7; see Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: 105; Meisler 2007: 38.
179 Cyprus: Picco 1999: 16, 18, 27.
179–80 Taught Picco. . . . Geneva: Picco 1999: 23, 30, 34, 33.
180 Nodding off: Picco 1999: 22, 25.
180–81 Picco’s concept: Picco 1999: 40–44.
181 Quietly negotiated: Picco 1999: 49.
181–82 Gorbachev. . . . long leash: Picco 1999: 52, 54, 55.
182 New independence: Picco 1999: 61, 72.
182 Pin the Iranians down: Picco 1999: 71, 77.
182 Push both sides hard: Picco 1999: 81, 27, 85, 90.
183 Down to the wire: Picco 1999: 94, 95.
183 Owed us one: Picco 1999: 99, 104, 3–7, 105, 249; 201, 209, 220.
183 Toughest part: Picco 1999: 129, 128, 180, 188, 193, 208, 194.
184 Rent a plane: Picco 1999: 213–16.
184 Hostage mission cost: Picco 1999: 233–34.
184 Left the UN convinced: Picco 1999: 274–87; 296.
185 Madagascar in 2002: Murphy 2006: 315–17.
185 Entrenched in the social fabric: Harbom and Wallensteen 2007: 625.
185 Ripe for resolution: Zartman 2005: 10–11; see also Rubinstein 2008: 23.
185 Costly catastrophes: Rubinstein 2008: 11.
185 Having reached the point: Iklé 1991: 2; 17–18, 59, 60, 66, 72; see also Reiter 2009.
186 Solves the dilemma: Rubinstein 2008: 24.
186 Form of third-party: Zartman and Touval 2007: 437, 438, 453.
186–87 Requires multiple attempts: Bercovitch 2005: 102, 112, 118.
187 Rhodes: Urquhart 1993: 201.
187 Preeminent international actor: Whitfield 2007: 40.
187 Exactly the type: Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, and Miall 2005: 4, 6–7.
187 Advocates of conflict resolution: Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, and Miall 2005: 12, 14, 26.
188 Bernadotte Academy: See folkebernadotteacademy.se.
188 Warning and insights: Hamburg 2002: 88.
188 Russia and Eastern Europe: Hamburg 2002: 92–95.
188 Human dignity: Lindner 2006.
188–89 Aceh province: Aall 2007: 478–79.
189 The trouble with NGOs : Whitfield 2007: 42.
189 Plethora: Prantl 2006: 3.
189 Go by the name. . . . governance: Whitfield 2007: 2.
189 These informal arrangements date: Whitfield 2007: 3–4; see also Prantl 2006; Krasno 2003b; Jones 2002.
189–90 The first to operate: Prantl 2006: 17, 159–208, 95–158, 18; Whitfield 2007: 1–2.
190 In recent cases: Prantl 2006: 18–19, 209–48.
190 Some wars are more likely: Whitfield 2007: 8, 14, 45.
191 Annan has suggested: Annan 2002: 27
191 Humanitarianism makes up: Weiss 2009: 89, 87, 90.
192 Water purification: Shawcross 2000: 16.
192 Cuny got started: Shawcross 2000: 17; see also Edwards 1999: 92.
192 It did not go smoothly: Quoted in Shawcross 2000: 17.
192 Never seen again: Anderson 1996.
193 Cuny’s fate is becoming: Stoddard, Harmer, and DiDomenico 2009: 1, 3, 4, 10.
193 British humanitarian: Foley 2008, 4, 5.
193 More problems than it has solved: Quoted in Malcomson 2008.
193–94 Recently the lines: Smillie and Minear 2004: 151–53, 9.
194 Food aid in Somalia: Gettleman and MacFarquhar 2010.
194 Kept many people alive: Shawcross 2000: 23.
194 70 percent. . . . captured: Edwards 1999: 91; see Gibbs 2009; Seybolt 2007: 278.
194 Deteriorated rapidly: Smillie and Minear 2004: 28–29.
194–95 Bureaucratic budgeting: Smillie and Minear 2004: 137–38, 144–45, 43.
195 Remains messy: Overseas Development Institute, 2010.
195 No humanitarian regime: Smillie and Minear 2004: 3, 7; see Polman 2010: 158.
195–96 Of the ninety NGOs: Smillie and Minear 2004: 43–45, 49.
196 Transition from short-term: Smillie and Minear 2004: 46, 47.
196 Unlike membership dues: Smillie and Minear 2004: 7–8, 171.
196 ICRC historically: Finnemore 1996: 69–88.
196–97 Had a budget. . . . funds: ICRC 2010: 91–93, 450.
197 Women’s peace activism: Anderlini 2007: xii, 5, 55, 6.
197 Five-year follow-up. . . . shepherded: Anderlini 2007: 6–7.
197 Implementation of 1325: Mazurana, Raven-Roberts, and Parpart eds. 2005.
197–98 Fewer than 2 percent: Weiss 2009: 117–118.
198 Such women were active: Anderlini 2007: 34.
198 In Liberia: Anderlini 2007: 56–57; Sirleaf 2009.
198 However, more often than not: Anderlini 2007: 35, 40, 6, 43, 54, 58.
199 Different philosophy: Anderlini 2007: 41.
199 Government amnesty: Reuters 2009; Nossiter 2010.
199 Vital role in South Africa’s: Anderlini 2007: 43.
199 Women as actors in: Quoted in Anderlini 2007: 106–08.
200 Conflict early-warning: Anderlini 2007: 28, 30; Clinton 2009: 42.
200 After a war, women: Anderlini 2007: 29, 93–95, 102.
200–01 Recent initiatives to include women: Anderlini 2007: 95, 100–02.
201 Literally saw things: Julie Mertus quoted in Anderlini 2007: 166.
201 First prosecution: Anderlini 2007: 166–68.
201 Acquaint myself: Linnér 2008: 30.
201 Although recent attention: Rehn and Sirleaf 2002: 56; Clinton 1998.
201–02 Women and children: Goldstein 2001: 399–401; Carpenter 2006.
202 Quite the contrary: Carpenter 2006; Kristof 2010d; see Save the Children 2003b.

Chapter 8

204 NFP: See nebraskanforpeace.org/history.
205 Billion people have risen: Dugger 2009.
205 Billion people remain: Collier 2007b.
206 Peace Development Fund: Accessed 9/30/09 at peacedevelopmentfund.org/page/programareas.
206 Prairie Peace Park: See www.peacepark.us/site/. Site description from Google Maps street view.
207 A third approach: Accessed 9/29/09 at fcpeace.com, centerofpeace.org, and thepeacecenter.info.
208 The pope argued: Pope Paul VI 1972; see also Cortright 2008: 262; Toft 2009: 11–12.
208 “True” peace: See Cortright 2008: 6–7; Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 73; Regan 2000: ix; Boulding 1978: 135.
208 Oppose abortion: Pope John Paul II 1999; see also Pope John Paul II 1995.
209 Group of 20: Urbina 2009.
210 William Penn: DeBenedetti 1980: 8–10; on Quaker pacifism in Britain see Brock 1972: 255–366.
210 Conversely, patriotic fervor: DeBenedetti 1980: 18, 20, 21.
211 After the War of 1812: DeBenedetti 1980: 28–29, 33, 36–37, 32.
211 Women constituted: DeBenedetti 1980: 48, 46.
211 Only the Massachusetts: Cortright 2008: 30.
211 Tennyson: Tennyson 1874: 54; Kennedy 2006: xi.
211–12 Ladd. . . . London. . . . Brussels: DeBenedetti 1980: 46–47.
212 Idea of arbitration: Cortright 2008: 49–51.
212 Antislavery movement: DeBenedetti 1980: 48–49.
212 Universal Brotherhood: DeBenedetti 1980: 52–53; see also Cortright 1980: 33.
212–13 Two evils.... Kansas.... APS collapsed: DeBenedetti 1980: 55, 32.
213 Eventually shattered: Cortright 2008: 35.
213 Longtime leader: Cortright 2008: 3, 13.
213 Two distinct schools: Cortright 2008: 36.
213 Cortright traces: Cortright 2008: 37, 260, 261.
213 Socialists have rarely: Cortright 2008: 262, 268.
214 Trotsky: D’Amato 2002.
214 Socialists completely rejected: Quoting Cortright 2008: 263, not Passy.
214 New wave of American: DeBenedetti 1980: 61, 67.
214 Peace efforts before World War I: DeBenedetti 1980: 66, 75.
214 Americans also drew strength: Cortright 2008: 40–43, 8–9.
215 Germany: Chickering 1975.
215 Growth spurt: DeBenedetti 1980: 79, 81–84; see also Cortright 2008: 50.
215 James. . . . Addams: DeBenedetti 1980: 88.
215 Socialist Congresses: Callahan 2004.
215 Empowerment of women: Cortright 2008: 70.
216 Collapsed and fractured: Cortright 2008: 10.
216 Punished by the government: DeBenedetti 1980: 102–05.
216 Turning point: Payne 2004: 66.
216 This paradox: DeBenedetti 1980: xiii.
216–17 Insanity of warfare. . . . Wilson’s work: DeBenedetti 1980: 109–11, 106; see also Cortright 2008: 47.
217 Far more popular in Europe: Cortright 2008: 61, 64–65, 59, 56–57.
218 After Wilson failed. . . . led by women: DeBenedetti 1980: 112, 114, 115.
218 Jail them. . . . college. . . . Peace Ballot: Cortright 2008: 72, 73, 77–78.
218 Conceptual evolution: Cortright 2008: 271.
218 Old issues again: Cortright 2008: 68, 88.
219 Korean War: DeBenedetti 1980: 155.
219 Kremlin’s: Cortright 2008: 279.
219 From the ashes: On the evolution of transnational peace activism over the Cold War decades see Evangelista 1999.
219 Atomic scientists: Wittner 2009.
219 Social scientists. . . . SANE: DeBenedetti 1980: 144–45, 157, 163; Cortright 2008: 128–31, 134.
219 Women Strike: Swerdlow 1989; Cortright 2008: 136.
220 Merchants of death: Cortright 1980: 93, 94, 97–99.
220 No precedent in history: Cortright 2008: 11.
220 World federalism: Cortright 2008: 116–17.
220 Most sustained: Cortright 2008: 157, 18.
221 Outpouring: DeBenedetti 1980: 185.
221 Could not convert: DeBenedetti 1980: 186; Cortright 2008: 18, 157, 160.
221 Each element: Cortright 2008: 157–59.
221 New left: Cortright 2008: 162.
221–22 Second Cold War . . . . Western Europe: Cortright 2008: 140, 145, 148.
222 Day After: See www.imdb.com/title/tt0085404/.
222 Dampen the bellicose: Cortright 2008: 141, 142–43, 145, 148; Cutter, Holcomb, and Shatin 1986; Meyer 1990; see also Solo 1988.
222–23 Bosnia. . . . Kosovo: Cortright 2008: 280, 289–90.
223 10 million people: Cortright 2008: 18, 2, 172, 175, 277.
224 At the time of the European: Holsti 1991: 81, 107, 161, 164.
224 Attitudes shifted completely: Holsti 1991: 327.
224–25 Evolution of international norms: Finnemore 2003: 2, 3, 49, 83; see Crawford 2002.
225 Clear trend: Finnemore 2003: 19. Fettweis 2010 appeared too late to include here.
225 In 1918 : Coleman 2007: 43.
225 Aristotle: Payne 2004: 17.
225 Two hundred years ago: Crawford 2002: 175, 320, see 176–84, 320–23.
225 Human sacrifice. . . . dueling: Forsberg 1997; Mueller 1989; Mueller 2006b: 66.
225 Normal part: Payne 2004: 30–31, 171, 185–86.
226 Coups. . . . terrorism: Payne 2004: 113, 144, 146.
226 Land mines: Information from icbl.org.
227 Remnants: Mueller 2004; Mueller 2006b: 66–74; see Van Crevald 2006: 97.
227 Attitudes about violence: Payne 2004: 54, 56, 141.
227 Restraints on killing: Slim 2008: 19.
227–28 Norms against violent civil: Payne 2004: 174–76, 179, 180.

Chapter 9

231 Enticingly: Crawford 1987.
231 SIPRI: SIPRI 2010.
231 Route to ending war: Boulding and Forsberg 1998: 13–26.
232 Imagine that we had: On “social data stations” see Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, and Miall 2005: 41.
232 Scour journalists’: For the UCDP Battle Deaths Dataset, see www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/; see also Lacina, Gleditsch, and Russett 2006: 676–78; on the Lacina battle death data-set see Lacina and Gleditsch 2005.
232 Factiva: Harbom and Wallensteen 2007: 628; UCDP 2010; see also Gleditsch et al. 2002; UCDP/PRIO 2009; Collier 2009: 4–5.
232 Contested incompatibility: UCDP 2009; Harbom and Wallensteen 2007: 625.
233 Nonstate. . . . one-sided: Sundberg 2009; see Human Security Report Project 2007: 37.
233 PRIO: Nils Petter Gleditsch, Bethany Lacina, Stein Tønnesson, Andrew Mack, personal communication, October 2010.
234 Clodfelter: Clodfelter 2008; Clodfelter, personal communication 2010.
235 Indirect deaths are those: Slim 2008: 90, 98, 99, 103; see Leitenberg 2006: 5–6.
235 Depend on a counterfactual: See Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 149.
236 Every reason to expect: Mack 2007: 531. For a contrary view see Shaw 2005.
236 New wars: Kaldor 2006vs. Melander, Öberg, and Hall 2009; see also Sarkees and Wayman 2010: 559; Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 154.
236 Quickly defies: Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 148; see also Collier 2009: 4.
237 Have become rare: Wallensteen and Sollenberg 1996: 356; Harbom and Wallensteen 2009: 578, 579.
237 Djibouti: BBC News 2008a.
237 Georgia and its breakaway: Harbom and Wallensteen 2009: 579–80.
237 Diminished as well: Levy 2002: 351.
238 Trend has flattened out: Hewitt, Wilkenfeld, and Gurr 2007; Harbom and Wallensteen 2009.
238 Ripple of interest: Easterbrook 2005; Mack 2005; Tierney 2005; Noah 2005; Sands 2005; Kaplan 2006; Traub 2006b; Arquilla 2006.
239 Steady downward trend: Wilson and Gurr 1999; see also Goldstein 2002.
239 Not seem to get through: Mack 2007: 523, 524; see also Human Security Centre 2005: 18.
239 Selection bias: Licklider 2005: 37.
239 Reporting the worst: Boulding 1978: 83.
240 Plenty of images: Payne 2004: 13; see also Taleb 2007: 112, 55, 80, 100.
240 Bleeds, it leads: See Boulding 1978: 83.
240 Progress Paradox: Easterbrook 2003: 35, 36.
240–41 Much more peaceful: Payne 2004: 7.
241 Chronological bias: He used this nice phrase at a conference, but calls it “presentism” in Payne 2004: 8.
241 Tendency to assume: Payne 2004: 68, 8, 9.
241 Takes to task: Payne 2004: 14, 9, 69, 267 n.3; Richardson 1960: 112, 128; Luard 1986: 23.
242 Glorify violence: Pinker 2007: 20.
242 Lack moral concern: Payne 2004: 10–11.
242 High-decibel: Easterbrook 2003: 100.
242 Followers and donations: Pinker 2007: 20.
242 The generation: Toynbee 1954: 322.
243 Researchers in Vancouver: Human Security Centre 2005: 17, 36, 28, 41, 42, 44.
244 One area where things: Human Security Report Project 2007: 28, 38–39, 35, 36, 42, 43.
244 Number of terrorist attacks: Human Security Report Project 2007: 2–3. See also Carle 2008; Mueller 2006a; Allison 2004.
244 Attributes the positive trends: Human Security Report Project 2007: 153–55, 10.
245 University of Maryland: Gurr, Marshall, and Khosla 2000: ii, 1, 2, 22.
245 Showed modest progress: Gurr, Marshall, and Khosla 2000: 4–6; Uppsala conflict database.
245 Almost half. . . . Beyond these 33: UCDP website, accessed 6/6/10 at www.pcr.uu.se/publications/UCDP_pub/UCDP_PRIO_ArmedConflictDataset_V4_2010.xls.
246 Slight uptick: Hewitt, Wilkenfeld, and Gurr 2010: 1.
246 Scenes of carnage: Pinker 2007: 20; see Pinker 2011.
246 Recently, both the Maryland: Harbom and Wallensteen 2007: 623, 625; Hewitt, Wilkenfeld and Gurr 2007.
247 Multinationalization: Gleditsch 2008.
247 Fundamental way unsolved: Hewitt, Wilkenfeld, and Gurr 2007; Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 155.
247 Interdisciplinary community: Boulding 1978: 131.
248 Minuscule operation: Boulding 1978: 120, 121, 143.
248 Paltry resources: Deutsch 1965: xi.
248 Sorokin: Sorokin 1937: 268, 269.
249 Iraq Body Count: www.iraqbodycount.org, accessed 11/7/10; see also Hicks et al. 2010: 1586.
249 Lancet: Burnham et al. 2006; see also Roberts et al. 2004: 1861; Johnson et al. 2008.
249 Science of casualty: Asher 2009.
249 Several epidemiologists: Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou 2008: 1; Murray et al. 2002: 346, 348; Murray and Lopez 1996.
250 New Murray article: Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou 2008: 6.
250 Considerable uncertainty: Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou 2008: 7.
250 Gleditsch: Bohannon 2008.
250 Bosnia: BBC News 2007. Incidentally, the Oxford Research Group, a British NGO, has begun a “Recording Casualties of Armed Conflicts” project to apply this Bosnia-style person-by-person approach to wars worldwide.
250 Spagat: Spagat et al. 2009; see Asher 2009.
250 Seattle group claims: Obermeyer, Murray, and Gakidou 2008: 3–6.
251 Returned the favor: Human Security Report Project 2009: 21.
251 Thanks to these efforts: Dugger 2009.
251 In countries at war: Human Security Report Project 2009: 23, 22.

Chapter 10

254 Norman Cousins: Jongman and van der Dennen 1988: 200–02; see also Payne 2004: 271 n.19.
255 Repeat this claim: Paris 2004: 1; Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 4; Collier et al. 2003: 17; Carnegie Commission 1997: 11.
255 These and other works: Kaldor 2006: 9; Blight and McNamara 2001: 21; Krippner and McIntyre eds. 2003: 1; Greitens 2001: 149.
255 One political scientist: Holsti 1996: 37.
255 Another source: Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, and Miall 2005: 72; UNICEF 1992: 26; Save the Children 2003a: 9.
255 Chain of citations: Paris’s 2004: 1 cites three sources. The third of these, Kaldor 1999: 9, does not say what Paris does, and does not give a source for what she does say. Paris’s second source is Collier et al. 2003: 17, which cites Cairns 1997, which cites Jongman and Schmid 1996: 25, Ahlström 1991, and Watkins 1995: 43, which gives no source. Jongman and Schmid cite Cranna 1994: xvii, who does not say what Jongman and Schmid do. Paris’s first source is UNDP 1994: 47, mis-cited by Paris as UNDP 2002: 85. UNDP 1994 cites Ahlström 1991.
255 First is: UNDP 1994: 47; see also Smith 1994.
255 Second is: Ahlström 1991.
255 Influential report: UNICEF 1996a.
255–56 Machel: Machel 1996: paragraph 24; see also UNICEF 1996b.
256 UN put the claim: UN 1997.
256 Actually say: Ahlström 1991: 8, 19.
257 Book that lists: Beer 1981: 37.
257 Short monograph: Wood 1968: 24.
257 Unknown origin: Wood 1968 cites Wright 1942, but although Wright 1942: 664 gives estimates of military deaths in World War I there is almost nothing on civilian casualties. Wright cites Nickerson 1934 and Ayres 1919, which says nothing about civilian deaths (see p. 119).
257 On this basis: Nickerson 1934: 110–11.
257 Lower than the range cited by most: Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 146.
257 Lower than the historical: Wright 1942/1965: 245
258 Hasty conclusions: Sollenberg 2006: 1; Sollenberg, personal communication, 2008.
258 Book on civilians: Downes 2008: 1.
258 Respected epidemiologists: Murray et al. 2002: 348.
258 Tabulated civilian: Eckhardt 1992: 254, 255, 90, 91.
258 The 20th century itself: Eckhardt 1992: 254.
258 Strange idea: Slim 2008: 71.
258–59 Some wars kill: Wedgwood 1938: 516; Rabb ed. 1981; Wright 1942/1965: 244.
259 In African conflicts: Lacina and Gleditsch 2005: 159; Human Security Centre 2005: 128, 129.
259 Healthy life lost: Ghobarah, Huth, and Russett 2004.
259 Smart bombs: Slim 2008: 58.
259 Single errant missile: Chivers and Nordland 2010.
260 Seventeen thousand web pages: Accessed at google.com 6/28/10.
260 World’s most deadly: Coghlan et al. 2006: 44.
260–61 It all started: Coghlan et al. 2006; for earlier survey results see Roberts et al. 2003; for later results see Coghlan et al. n.d.
261 Embedded as truths: Kristof 2010a, b, c; Coghlan et al. n.d.: 13.
261 Extrapolating the results: Human Security Report Project 2009: 36–48; Spielmann 2010.
261 All of sub-Saharan Africa: Coghlan et al. 2006: 49.
262 Same GDP number for sub-Saharan: World Bank data; purchasing power parity adjusted. Accessed 6/28/10 at siteresources.worldbank.org/DATASTATISTICS/Resources/GNIPC.pdf.
262 Surveys show a drop: From about 65 to 43 deaths per thousand population.
263 Half the rate during the war: Coghlan et al. n.d.: 13.
263 Vancouver group recalculated: Human Security Report Project 2009: 45; the Vancouver researchers did not try to reestimate the first two IRC surveys, before 2001, which they considered too unreliable.
263 Remains Unchanged: Polgreen 2008a.
263 Peer review: Pedersen 2009: 21.
263 Belgian researchers: Lambert and Lohlé-Tart 2008.
263 Korean War: Human Security Report Project 2009: 26–27.
264 Has since killed: Rummel 1997: 377; see also economic data from World Bank and CIA World Factbook.
264 Clinton: BBC News 2009c.
265 John Holmes: Gettleman 2010a.
265 NGO pitched the results: Oxfam International 2010.
265 Completely different story: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative 2010: 7, 8.
265 Of all these cases: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative 2010: 13, 19.
266 But what about the far larger: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative 2010: 18–20.
266 Normalization of rape: Harvard Humanitarian Initiative 2010: 2.
266 Previous reports considered: Arieff 2009: 18; UN Security Council 2008: 8; Human Rights Watch 2009: 15.
267 Rape capital: BBC News 2010b.
267 Population Fund: UNFPA 2008; UN News Service 2010a.
267 South Kivu in 2008: Human Rights Watch 2009: 14.
267 15–20 million people: World Bank 2005: 11.
267 U.S. crime statistics: U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics 2010.
267–68 World Health Organization: Krug et al. eds. 2002: 151.
268 Congo War was at its height: Réseau des Femmes pour un Développement Associatif 2005.
268–69 Swedish analysis: Baaz and Stern 2010: 16, 18, 19, 24. 269 With a decades-long: Baaz and Stern 2010: 42, 43. 269 Another problem with the heavy emphasis: Baaz and Stern 2010: 53–55.
270 Attention-grabber: Gettleman 2010b.
270 In early 2011: Gettleman 2011.
271 Not carried out with impunity: United Nations 2010; Bloomberg News 2010; Gettleman 2011.
272 IRC authors themselves: Brennan, Despines, and Roberts 2006; see also Roessler and Prendergast 2006: 229, 236.
272 Women during childbirth: Grady 2010; Richard Horton on National Public Radio, “Here and Now,” April 14, 2010.
273 Rut of violence: Gettleman 2010a.
273–74 Readers’ comments: Accessed 6/28/20 at community.nytimes.com/comments/kristof. blogs.nytimes.com/2010/02/06/your-comments-on-my-sunday-congo-column/.
274 Uncontrolled brutality: See Autesserre 2010: 75.

Chapter 11

276 Many researchers credit: Rummel 1994: 2, 16.
276 Works in theory: Lipson 2003: 1.
276 Democracy turns out: Collier 2009: 2.
276 One plausible theory: Gat 2010: 89, 95–96; Cortright 2008: 302.
277 Virtuous circle: Russett and Oneal 2001: 24–28; 35–39, 127–29.
277 Statistical analysis confirms: Russett and Oneal 2001: 163–65.
277 Rapid growth: Gleditsch 2008: 700.
277 Focused on trade: Mill 1848/1902: 136; see also Gartzke 2007: 170, 166–67; McDonald 2009.
277 Weak at best: Gat 2010: 91.
277 Low income levels: Russett 2010.
278 Syracuse: Gat 2010: 92.
278 Rising wealth: See Russett 2010 versus Gat 2010: 87, 91, 92, 598; Kacowicz 1995; Mousseau 2000: 472.
278 Economic development goes: Holsti 1996: 116, 16–17, 41, 147, 150–51, 183, 185.
278 Maybe democracies: Kacowicz 1995.
278 Territorial aggrandizement: Zacher 2001: 244, 245.
278 Of 227 conflicts: Gleditsch 2007: 180; see also Vasquez and Henehan 2010.
278–79 Similarly in 1648–1713. . . . Cold War: Holsti 1991: 47, 87, 95, 143, 217, 281, 307.
279 First plank: Boulding 1978: 109.
280 In 2009, six civil wars: Uppsala/PRIO data; Harbom and Wallensteen 2010a.
285 Mai Mai: Reuters 2010.
287 List eleven: Harbom and Wallensteen 2010b; see also Harbom, ed. 2010.
289 Zone of peace: This zone of peace is considerably larger than that envisioned by Singer and Wildavsky 1996 as including only developed democracies; see also Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, and Miall 2005: 62.
289 East Asia bears: Stein Tønnesson, Personal communication, September 2010.
289–90 Germany and Poland: Kulish 2007.
290 Chávez: Romero 2008.
290 Sherlock: Doyle 1894: 22, 26.
290 All is not rosy: Kal Holsti sees more gradations in zones; see Holsti 1996: 148; see also Kupchan 2010; Deutsch et al. 1957.
290 Terrorism kills: Mueller 2006a; Human Security Report Project 2007.
291 Hobbes: Hobbes 1651/1996: 88–89.
291 Spill over: Collier 2007b: 126.
291 The conditions favorable: Hegre and Sambanis 2006.
292 Most robust: Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 34.
292 Best predictor: Fearon 2008: 293.
292 Saakashvili: Chivers and Schwirtz 2008.
292 One study estimated: Cited in Mack 2007: 526; see also Stewart and FitzGerald 2001a: 2.
292 Tax revenues: Collier 2009: 206.
293 Why aren’t the rest: Regan 2009: 23–24, 35.
293 Conflict trap: Collier et al. 2003: 1, 101–03; Collier 2007b: 7, xi.
293 Also keeping countries: Collier et al. 2003: 104; see also Collier 2007b: 27.
293 In both marginalized: Collier et al. 2003: 107; Collier 2007b: 35.
294 Development in reverse: Collier et al. 2003: 2, 106; Collier 2007b: 27; Collier 2007a: 211; see Stewart and FitzGerald 2001b: 230–32, 240–41.
294 About three-quarters: Collier 2007b: x, 17.
294 Two independent statistical: Collier 2007a: 200–02; Fearon and Laitin 2003.
294 Primary commodity exports: Wood 2003b; Collier 2007a: 205; Ron 2005; Lujala, Gleditsch, and Gilmore 2005.
294–95 Resource curse: Drelichman and Voth 2008; see Ross 2008.
295 Botswana: Collier et al. 2003: 126.
295 Review of fourteen studies: Ross 2004; see Ross 2006, Fearon 2005; Ross 2008.
295 More complex results: Hegre et al. 2001; see also Mansfield and Snyder 2005; Gat 2010: 89; Ottoway 2007: 603, 604; Fortna and Howard 2008: 294.
295 In very poor countries: Collier 2009: 20–21, 49.
295 Caused more misery: Harff and Gurr 2004: 1, xii.
296 Tsunami: Gurr 2000: xiii, 203, 204, 211.
296 At the root: Gurr 2000: 3, 195; Collier 2009: 51, 56; see also Lake and Rothchild 1998: 5–6.
296 Somalis: Keller 1998: 278.
296 Most ethnic wars since 1960: Gurr 2000: 197, 223, 203.
296 275 sizable groups: Harff and Gurr 2004: 3–5.
296 Relationship between ethnic divisions: Wood 2003b: 251–52; see Collier 2007a: 201–213.
296–97 Fractionalization. . . . mobilization: Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 37–39.
297 Political repression: Collier 2007b: 23, 25; Fearon and Laitin 2003.
297 Norwegian: Buhaug and Gleditsch 2008: 230.
297 Confidence building. . . . minimal representation: Rothchild and Lake 1998: 203 209, 210.
298 Irregular war creates zones: Kalyvas 2006: 11–12, 88, chapters 3–5.
298 Warring parties use violence: Kalyvas 2006: 12, 111, 145, 45, 46, 28, 27.
298–99 But only the local: Kalyvas 2006: 89, 92.
299 Dominant but incomplete: Kalyvas 2006: 14, 59, 174.
299 Cycles of denunciation: Kalyvas 2006: 147–49, 167, 330, 332, 338, 333.
299 Not a war, but a disease: Antoine de Saint-Exupéry, quoted in Kalyvas 2006: 334.
299–300 These personal motives appeared: Des Forges 1999: 10, 11, 90.
300 Rational economic agents: Collier 2007a: 216; 198, 199; see also Hultman 2008.
300 Control warlords: Shawcross 2000: 29.
300 War reporter: Hedges 2002: 20, 22.
300 Some researchers take: Regan 2009: 9, 19–23.
301 And individual motives: Wood 2003a: 2, 12, 18, 227–28.
301 Feasibility: Collier 2009: 135, 132, 133.
301 Diaspora communities: Collier 2007a: 210; Collier et al. 2003: 162–63.
301–02 Wars end in different ways: Licklider 1995; Toft 2009: 6, xi, 5.
302 The central issue: Walter 2002: 3, 4, 6.
302 Peacebuilding trumps: Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 48, 45, 5.
302 In Central America: Peceny and Stanley 2001.
302 Hills of Bangladesh: Fortna 2008: 50–55.
303 After a war: Collier 2007a: 211–13.
303 Regarding economic growth: Collier 2007a: 215; Collier 2007b: 27.
303 In recovering economically: Collier et al. 2003: 166.
303 Two points of intervention: Collier 2007b: 177–78.
304 Not to take anything: Francesch et al. 2008: 19; see also Fisas 2010.
304 Continue jockeying: Durch 2006b: 595; see also Stedman 2002.
305 Blunt fact: Kennedy 2006: 98.
305 High-value commodities: Durch 2006b: 595.
305 Pieces of a mirror: Hedges 2002: 119.
305 Striking similarities: Krippner and McIntyre 2003: 4; see also Shay 1994.
305 Spent fifteen years: Hedges 2002: 3, 38, 40.
305–06 One way to deal: Cohen 2001: 1, 5, 6, 119.
306 Denial is literal: Cohen 2001: 7, 103.
306 Atlacatl: Cohen 2001: 135–36.
306 Denial is always partial: Cohen 2001: 22, 11, 117.
307 Truth Commission: Cohen 2001: 227.
307 What are missing: Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 19.

Chapter 12

308 The second largest: Erlanger 2009.
310 Surprisingly resilient: Shawcross 2000: 299; Kennedy 2006: 110 ; Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 8.
311 In assessing the UN’s: Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: 16–17, 36–37.
311 Pushed to the wall: MacFarquhar 2009a; see Banerjee 2008: 187.
311 Flag is not enough: MacFarquhar 2008.
311 Plane was shot down: Shawcross 2000: 403, 38.
312 Tobin tax: Diehl 2008: 113; Castro 2001.
312 Australian: Evans 2008: 176.
312–13 Permanent missions: Prantl 2006: 75; Data from globalpolicy.org/security/data/tabsec.htm.
313 Plane of his own: Traub 2006a: 221.
313 No enforcement. . . . race against time: Shawcross 2000: 34, 45.
313 Power and prestige: O’Brien 1962: 64.
313 Pretension and grandiosity: Babbin 2004: 196.
313 In late 1954: Traub 2006a: 11.
314 Test of the authority: Urquhart 1993: 336.
314 Considerable freedom: O’Brien 1962: 269.
314 Sensible notion: Weiss 2009: 180.
314 U.S. public opinion: Worldpublicopinion.org 2007: 9–10, 5.
316 Military policy expert: O’Hanlon 2007: 323, 321, 328, 319–28.
316 RAND: Dobbins et al. 2007: 4–5, 258, 6, 256.
316 Once war starts: Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 43.
317 Ounce of prevention: Urquhart 1972: 524; Annan 2002: 2, 11 ; Stares and Zenko, 2009.
317 $200 billion: Cited in Annan 2002: 1–2.
317 Early-warning: Carnegie Commission 1997: 43–48; see also Edwards 1999: 109.
317 As Annan notes: Annan 2002: 1, 19, 35, 27.
317 Annan complains: Annan 2002: 45; see Melander, Möller, and Öberg 2009.
317–18 OSCE: Ramsbotham, Woodhouse, and Miall 2005: 127–29, 110–12.
318 Cost $11 billion: Zartman 2005: 203, 204.
318 Medical researcher: Hamburg 2002: x; Stanford Prevention Research Center n.d.
318 Hamburg went on: Carnegie Commission on Preventing Deadly Conflict 1997; Hamburg 2008; Hamburg 2002: 308.
319 State Department poll: Ruggie 1996: 33.
319 Who do you think: Traub 2006a: 8, 16.
319 During the Reagan: Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: 9, 10, 12.
319–20 After 1994: Ruggie 1996: 7.
320 Jesse Helms: Traub 2006a: 131–35; see also Shawcross 2000: 33.
320 Richard Holbrooke: Traub 2006a: 136–38, 143.
320 Tone shifted again: Traub 2006a: 153; see Bolton 1994; Weiss 2009: 2; Doyle and Sambanis 2006: 2.
320 Obama Administration: MacFarquhar 2009b; UNA-USA 2010.
321 State-centric: Weiss 2009: 2, 19.
321 192 units: Garrett 1999: 30.
322 Personal setting: See Long and Brecke 2003.
322 Limits to sovereignty: Holsti 1996: 191.
323 World’s business: Evans 2008: 5, 11, 175.
323 Breakaway Georgian: Malcomson 2008: 13.
323 Security Council, however: Bellamy, Williams, and Griffin 2004: 3; see also Garrett 1999: 67.
323 UN Charter says: See Donnelly 2003: 243.
324 Humanitarian intervention: Thakur 2007: 399; Mingst and Karns 2007: 109–10; Garrett 1999: 4, viii; see also Zartman 2005: 1.
324 Came to a head in Kosovo: Donnelly 2003: 258, 259.
324–25 Long predates: Garrett 1999: 9; Bass 2008: 3–8.
325 Profoundly national. . . . 1990s: Wheeler 2000: 1, 8; see also Donnelly 2003: 179, 242 ; Seybolt 2007: 270.
325 Annan supported the concept: Quoted in Traub 2006a: 100. 325 Potential weakening. . . . driven more: Wheeler 2000: 285, 300.
325 G77: Traub 2006a: 101; see Marten 2004.
325 Set up the commission: International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty 2001.
325–26 In 2008: Albright 2008.
326 Despite the resilience: Kennedy 2006: 77; O’Brien 1962: 3; Pérez de Cuéllar 1997: 3.
326 Trick-or-treat: Rubinstein 2008: 1–2.
326 Symbolic. . . . moribund: Rubinstein 2008: 3.
327 International Day: UN 2008.