Ireland Today
In and out of a deep recession, the Republic of Ireland continues to embrace the changes of progressive liberalism: in 2015 it passed marriage-equality legislation granting equal marital status to same-sex couples. Northern Ireland remains resistant to this kind of change, for now – but it continues along the path of peace with greater confidence than ever before. Meanwhile, a Brexit-shaped shadow lurks in the distance...
Progressive Conservatism
Although the 2016 elections returned the Fine Gael party to government, their unconvincing show in the campaign and the resulting hung parliament that left them relying on a motley crew of independents to govern eventually led to the resignation of Enda Kenny as Taoiseach (Republic of Ireland prime minister) and party leader in May 2017.
His replacement is Leo Varadkar, who happens to be gay and half-Indian. While much has been written about Ireland's remarkable journey over the last three decades that has resulted in the ascent to the highest office of the homosexual son of an immigrant, it is perhaps even more remarkable that he did so as a member of Fine Gael, whose conservative values are woven into the party's DNA.
Varadkar is something of a conundrum. He is charismatic, straight-talking and very much a child of progressive, contemporary Ireland: at 38 he was the youngest person ever to become Taoiseach. But many progressives are troubled by the conservative tone of his politics, and while the new Taoiseach insists that some of his views have evolved (read: softened) over the years, his rise reveals a fascinating dichotomy: he is the product of a social liberalism that he doesn't fully espouse. Or, put another way, his success is down to a mix of political nous and pragmatic conservatism, qualities that make his sexual orientation and ethnic background completely irrelevant.
Repealing the 8th
With same-sex marriage already on the statute books of the Republic, the next big social issue it will have to look at is reform of the country's strict anti-abortion laws, outlined in the 8th amendment to the constitution.
In April 2017 a Citizens' Assembly – a body convened by the government to explore constitutional issues – voted overwhelmingly to extend access to abortion with 'no restriction as to reasons' by a majority of 64%. While a majority of the electorate supports reform of the existing law, polls show that two-thirds would reject abortion on request.
The specific wording of a new law is the main challenge for the government, which has indicated that a referendum is likely at some point in 2018. In the meantime, both sides of the argument have dug in for what promises to be a bitter fight. The pro-choice campaign, which is supported by an overwhelming majority of younger voters, has been especially vocal: you might see people sporting a 'repeal' T-shirt or sweatshirt on your travels.
Brexit & Beyond
What will Brexit bring? At the time of writing, this was the pressing political and economic question. Ireland has close socioeconomic ties with the UK, so most economists believe that 'the harder the Brexit, the worse the outcome', with bilateral trade hit by as much as 20%.
But the biggest impact will be felt by Northern Ireland, which in a post-Brexit landscape will be divided from the Republic by the only land border between the UK and the EU. The majority of its citizens (56% to 44%) voted Remain, but the governing Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) favoured Leave, if only, they argued, to copper-fasten the province’s ties to a UK that was out of the EU.
