Contents

Foreword	xi
Preface	xiii
Acknowledgments	xv
Introduction	1
MOTIVATION	1
Generate Social Dynamics	2
A Core Target	2
THE MODEL COMPONENTS	5
MODEL OVERVIEW	6
Skeletal Equation	8
Specific Components	9
ORGANIZATION	10
Part I: Mathematical Model	10
Part II: Agent-Based Model	11
Part III: Extensions	13
Replicability and Research Resources on the Princeton University Press Website	16
Part IV: Future Research and Conclusions	17
Part I. Mathematical Model	19
I.1. THE PASSIONS: FEAR CONDITIONING	19
Fear Circuitry and the Perils of Fitness	20
Nomenclature of Conditioning	29
The Rescorla-Wagner Model	33
Social Examples	37
Fear Extinction	41
I.2. REASON: THE COGNITIVE COMPONENT	46
I.3. THE SOCIAL COMPONENT	51
Simple Version of the Core Target	55
Examples of Fear Contagion	57
Mechanisms of Fear Contagion	59
Conformist Empirical Estimates	63
Generalizing Rescorla-Wagner	67
The Central Case	69
Tolstoy: The First Agent Modeler	71
A Mathematical Aside on Social Norms as Vector Fields	74
Extinction of Majorities	78
I.4. INTERIM CONCLUSIONS	80
Part II. Agent-Based Computational Model	81
Affective Component	84
“Rational” Component	85
Social Component	88
Action	89
Pseudocode	89
II.1. COMPUTATIONAL PARABLES	90
Parable 1: The Slaughter of Innocents through Dispositional Contagion	90
Parable 2: Agent_Zero Initiates: Leadership as Susceptibility to Dispositional Contagion	94
Run 3. Information Cuts Both Ways	96
Run 4. A Day in the Life of Agent_Zero: How Affect and Probability Can Change on Different Time Scales	98
Run 5. Lesion Studies	102
Part III. Extensions	107
III.1. ENDOGENOUS DESTRUCTIVE RADIUS	107
III.2. AGE AND IMPULSE CONTROL	109
III.3. FIGHT VS. FLIGHT	110
Case 1: Fight	111
Case 2: Flight	112
Capital Flight	114
III.4. REPLICATING THE LATANÉ-DARLEY EXPERIMENT	114
Threshold Imputation	115
The Dialogue	118
III.5. MEMORY	118
III.6. COUPLINGS: ENTANGLEMENT OF PASSION AND REASON	122
Mathematical Treatment	124
III.7. ENDOGENOUS DYNAMICS OF CONNECTION STRENGTH	128
Affective Homophily	128
General Setup	130
Agent-Based Model: Nonequlibrium Dynamics	135
III.8. GROWING THE 2011 ARAB SPRING	138
III.9. JURY PROCESSES	143
Phase 1. Public Phase	143
Phase 2. Courtroom Trial Phase	145
Phase 3. Jury Phase	147
III.10. EMERGENT DYNAMICS OF NETWORK STRUCTURE	152
Network Structure Dynamics as a Poincaré Map	153
Relation to Literature	159
III.11. MULTIPLE SOCIAL LEVELS	160
Agent_Zero as Witness to History	161
III.12. THE 18TH BRUMAIRE OF AGENT_ZERO	165
III.13. INTRODUCTION OF PRICES AND SEASONAL ECONOMIC CYCLES	168
Prices	168
A Christmas Story	173
III.14. SPIRALS OF MUTUAL ESCALATION	176
Part IV. Future Research and Conclusion	181
IV.1. FUTURE RESEARCH	181
IV.2. CONCLUSION	187
Civil Violence	187
Economics	188
Health Behavior	189
Psychology	190
Jury Dynamics	191
The Formation and Dynamics of Networks	191
Mutual Escalation Dynamics	192
Birth and Intergenerational Transmission	192
IV.3. TOWARD NEW GENERATIVE FOUNDATIONS	192
Appendix I. Threshold Imputation Bounds	195
Appendix II. Mathematica Code	197
Appendix III. Agent_Zero NetLogo Source Code	213
Appendix IV. Parameter Settings for Model Runs	221
References	227
Index	243