December 10, 1997
American faith in crusaders, and other do-gooders, is a direct result of the fact that we don't bother to look back at their last promises and predictions. Let's resurrect a few.
Since 1987, twenty-four states have enacted laws requiring local authorities to issue concealed-weapon permits to law-abiding citizens. When these measures were debated, opponents predicted that America's streets would turn into “Dodge Cities” and that “blood would run in the streets.”
Enough time has transpired to examine their predictions. According to Jeffrey R. Snyder's report “Fighting Back,” published by the Washington-based Cato Institute, counties where shall-issue gun-licensing laws went into effect, murders fell by 7.65 percent, rapes by 5.2 percent, robberies by 2.2 percent, and aggravated assaults by 7 percent. While researchers dispute the causal connection between concealed-carry laws and the drop in violent crime, the fact is our streets didn't turn into “Dodge Cities.” If anything, they're more civilized.
What did the do-gooders say about the Republican-controlled Congress's repeal of the 55-mph speed limit? Ralph Nader said, “History will never forgive Congress for this assault on the sanctity of human life.” Judith Stone, president of Advocates for Highway Safety, predicted “6,400 added highway fatalities a year and millions of more injuries.” Former head of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Joan Claybrook said that Republicans “buried leadership in the rich opportunities afforded by political power.” That's the Claybrook who said that air bags were safe and would provide protection for people whether they are seated properly or not.
According to recently released data by the NHTSA, speed-related deaths didn't rise by 6,400, but fell by 258. According to a MediaNomics editorial by Stephen Moore: “In the 27 states where higher speed limits had been in effect for at least six months, highway fatalities were virtually unchanged. California raised its speed limit to 70 mph and fatalities fell to their lowest level since 1961.” Safety experts debate about the effects of repealing the national speed limit. One thing for sure is that the crusader prediction of 6,400 additional fatalities was dead wrong.
How about predictions of deadly global warming? The facts are that, if anything, the earth is cooling. We need not fear deadly global warming as much as the deadly public policy based on the false predictions. Federal Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards, initially justified to save oil but now justified to “protect the environment,” kill thousands of people each year.
Since CAFE standards have been in effect, auto manufacturers have reduced the weight of their cars by an average of 1,000 pounds. According to a report by Julie C. DeFalco, “CAFE's Smashing Success,” all auto crash studies show that smaller cars are less safe than larger cars. Applying those research findings to traffic fatality figures for 1996, DeFalco concludes that of the 22,000 passenger car deaths, 2,700 to 4,700 were the result of CAFE's downsizing effect.
Congress is well aware of the deadliness of CAFE standards, but they are captives of the Naderites, Claybrooks, and the lunatic environmentalist fringe. People who die or suffer needless injuries because of CAFE standards don't know the cause of their plight, plus, they don't have a strong Washington lobby. Politicians love situations where they can appease one group and not have to worry about the victims of that appeasement.
The most amazing thing about all this is not that people make mistakes. What's truly amazing is how the media presents these people over and over and how we listen to their foolish predictions time after time.