Stock market crashes often are obvious, but only in the rear-view mirror. Once the damage has been done, the cause is apparent. The Giants experienced a crash in 2017 that, in hindsight, had some obvious causes.
For years, the Giants had exceeded expectations. Every year an Angel Pagan, Joe Panik or Matt Duffy would arrive and give an unexpected boost. And with Madison Bumgarner, Buster Posey and other stars providing October heroics, the Giants won three World Series titles in a five-year span.
But even when the Giants won it all in 2014, they were an 88-win, wild card team. They returned to the playoffs as an 87-win wild card in 2016. The Giants won with an airtight infield defense, a strong pitching staff and defenders who could cover AT&T Park’s acres of outfield grass.
But in 2017, the bottom fell out in shocking ways. San Francisco finished with the worst record in the National League. Most embarrassingly, they finished seven games worse than the Padres—a team with a miniscule payroll that was focused on rebuilding with little emphasis placed on winning. San Francisco was significantly worse with a bloated payroll that forced it to pay the luxury tax.
The game has changed in ways that have emphasized San Francisco’s weaknesses and minimized its strengths. While the rest of the league has embraced the home run, the Giants’ lineup is still built around stringing together singles and doubles.
The 2017 Giants’ offensive numbers don’t look all that different than what they did in 2014, when they won the World Series. In 2014, the Giants hit 132 home runs and scored 4.1 runs per game.
In 2017, they hit 128 home runs and scored 3.9 runs per game. But the league went from scoring 3.9 runs per game in 2014 to 4.6 runs per game in 2017.
In 2017, the average major league team hit 204 home runs. The Giants’ 128 home runs were not only worst in baseball, they were 23 fewer than any other team. They were also dead last in isolated slugging percentage. Brandon Belt led the team with 18 home runs, which ranked in a tie for 127th in baseball.
THEARON W. HENDERSON/GETTYIMAGES
Brandon Belt, the Giants’ top slugger, ranked just 127th in baseball with 18 home runs.
The Giants have a large, set payroll and an aging lineup that is largely 30 or older, which makes a quick turnaround difficult. With an established infield, the Giants’ only way to add power is to upgrade their outfield and/or third base.
With the exception of Chris Shaw, the club’s best upper-level prospects are better hitters than sluggers, which means a power boost will have to come from the outside, or the Giants will have to hope that baseball returns to a pitching-friendly environment similar to 2014.
PROJECTED 2021 LINEUP
Catcher |
Buster Posey (34) |
First Base |
Brandon Belt (33) |
Second Base |
Joe Panik (30) |
Third Base |
Christian Arroyo (26) |
Shortstop |
Brandon Crawford (34) |
Left Field |
Chris Shaw (27) |
Center Field |
Heliot Ramos (21) |
Right Field |
Bryan Reynolds (26) |
No. 1 Starter |
Madison Bumgarner (31) |
No. 2 Starter |
Johnny Cueto (35) |
No. 3 Starter |
Jeff Samardzija (36) |
No. 4 Starter |
Tyler Beede (28) |
No. 5 Starter |
Garrett Williams (26) |
Closer |
Melvin Adon (27) |
The Giants farm system is thin on potential impact players, so it’s going to be tough for the aging roster to get better quickly. They took one small step toward that by selecting 2017 first-rounder Heliot Ramos, a high school out-fielder from Puerto Rico who led the Rookie-level Arizona League with a .645 slugging. San Francisco can add another high-ceiling talent when it picks second in the 2018 draft.
The Giants are going to need time to return to prominence. The climb back usually takes much longer than the crash.