Can Rubio and Cruz Capture the GOP Establishment?

The first two GOP debates have catapulted new candidates into the top tier of the field. In Cleveland, it was Dr. Ben Carson. In Simi Valley, it was Carly Fiorina—who was also following up a “mini-breakout” in Cleveland’s undercard debate. Neither candidate “won” the debates so much as they exceeded expectations and subsequently drew real interest from pundits, voters, and fundraisers. Tonight, for the first time, it appears that not one, but two, candidates are poised for breakout performances.

As the Republican presidential candidates prep for tonight’s CNBC debate in Boulder, Colorado, the GOP establishment remains deeply nervous as Carson and Donald Trump continue to maintain strong leads in the polls less than one hundred days before Iowa’s first-in-the-nation caucuses. The establishment’s choices have narrowed as the fall has progressed: Well-respected conservative Governors Scott Walker and Rick Perry exited the race, and Governors John Kasich, Chris Christie, and Jeb Bush remain mired in the low single-digits in the polls. It’s not even clear that Christie will make the next main debate stage on November 10.

Instead, the eyes of conservative party regulars are settling on the two candidates, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, who have the highest poll numbers of any current or former office holders in the field. Both senators rode the Tea Party wave into the United States Senate in 2010 and 2012, and appear able to bridge the gap between the establishment’s desire for stability and governing experience and the base’s desire for an “outsider” focused on their core concerns.

This article was originally published in Politico Magazine, October 28, 2015.

Rubio’s and Cruz’s developing GOP mainstream conservative embrace is consistent with the prediction made by 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney back in January when he passed on the 2016 race. Governor Romney said then: “I believe that one of our next generation of Republican leaders, one who may not be as well known as I am today, one who has not yet taken their message across the country, one who is just getting started, may well emerge as being better able to defeat the Democrat nominee.”

Given the momentum they are riding into Boulder and based on their past performance and superior debating skills, I predict, with confidence, that Rubio and Cruz will be the winners tonight. They were the best debaters in the previous gatherings in Cleveland and in Simi Valley, California. Not merely expectations-game “best,” where the candidates’ supporters and media pundits declare winners and losers based on what the candidates “had to do” to stay in the race or who got off the cleverest one-liner at Donald Trump’s expense—Rubio and Cruz were actually the best at fluently addressing the issues of importance to the likely caucus and primary voters.

The men appear to have a special blend of GOP DNA: Rubio and Cruz appeal to both the key social conservative and defense hawk wings of GOP with their respective 98 percent and 100 percent lifetime American Conservative Union ratings. They smartly focus on those constituencies in their debate answers. In Cleveland, Rubio said the current generation would be considered “barbarians” by future historians for legalizing abortion. In Simi Valley, he hammered the Obama administration on the Iran nuclear deal and its normalization of diplomatic relations with Cuba. “Clinton will not overturn these deals as president. I will,” he said to applause. Federalist Society types, meanwhile, are still talking about Cruz’s Simi Valley rebuke of Presidents George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush for selecting Justice David Souter and Chief Justice John Roberts for Supreme Court vacancies over reliably conservative judges Edith Jones and Michael Luttig. Cruz also drew strong applause by flatly declaring he would end the Iran nuclear deal on “day one” of his presidency.

Rubio and Cruz bring with them only-in-America personal stories that rival the “log cabin” narratives of presidential candidates in the nineteenth century. They are Hispanic American children of immigrants. Rubio rode his skill as a high school quarterback to college in Florida, followed by law school. Cruz excelled in debate and earned degrees from Princeton and Harvard Law. They are men of strong religious faith and have beautiful young families. And both men are from that next generation Romney predicted would carry the torch in 2016: Rubio is forty-three years old, Cruz is forty-four.

Together, by heritage, economic circumstances of birth, age, optimism, and ideology, Rubio and Cruz present a stark and positive GOP contrast to the Democratic front-runners—former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders.

To win the nomination, Rubio and Cruz must show the establishment and mainstream Republicans that they are winners. They will not do this by going after each other. Rubio’s campaign has run on a financial shoestring. He must convince the donors who have been on the sidelines or who are supporting another establishment candidate that he is their guy. It would not be surprising to see him cordially, but firmly, draw contrasts on the issues and style with Bush, Kasich, and Christie. Rubio may do so on Iran with Bush, who has taken a more nuanced approach to the nuclear deal than the rest of the field. Rubio will attempt to demonstrate to the donor class that he is the only center-right office holder with the ability to go the long haul with the outsiders.

Cruz, for his part, must show the party that the outsider image he has cultivated in the Senate is sufficient to beat Trump and Carson among the base in the upcoming caucus and primary contests. If he can, main-streamers in the party would forgive and forget any past disagreements on Senate-floor tactics and rally to the Texas senator over the unelected insurgents. Accordingly, Cruz will need to abandon his kid-glove treatment of Trump and Carson and draw contrasts with them tonight. He certainly has an opening to do so on national security versus Trump, who has been playing up how chummy he will be with Vladimir Putin if he is elected.

The field has much uncertainty ahead of it, no matter how tonight unfolds: After Boulder, Trump and Carson may continue to lead in the polls—they are clearly connecting with a wing of the party dissatisfied with the status quo. And no one can predict the impact of an expected and unprecedented nine-figure media buy by Bush’s “Right to Rise” super PAC. Fiorina continues to present herself as a real contrast to Hillary Clinton. GOP primary history, however, has shown that strong debate performances in the run-up to Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada matter. It is when voters really pay attention to the race. This fact gives Rubio and Cruz a big opening. They both know it. If they are the front-runners come January, it will be a shift that began tonight in Boulder.