Rule #9: Convert Causes to Contributing Factors When Appropriate

Having a decent understanding of causality can go a long way towards better reasoning. Binary thinking is frequently reflected in claims of causality. Consider the following claims:

The reason the economy suffers is because of lazy citizens who prefer handouts to working.

The reason there is so much violent crime is that humans are violent by nature.

Bill’s car was stolen because he parked in a sketchy neighborhood.

Trump is to blame for the high number of COVID-19 fatalities in the U.S.

The key to success is persistence!

What all of these claims have in common is a simplistic “reason” given for what is, in reality, a complex series of cause and effect comprising many contributing factors. More reasonable ways to make the above claims would go as follows:

One of the reasons the economy suffers is because some citizens who are lazy prefer handouts to working.

Humanity’s violent nature is a clear contributor to the level of violent crime we see in the world today.

One of the reasons Bill’s car was stolen was because he parked it in a sketchy neighborhood.

Trump’s inaction and casual attitude, especially at the start of the pandemic, undoubtedly contributed to the high number of COVID-19 fatalities in the U.S.

Persistence is consistently identified as one of the leading contributors of success by successful individuals .

Evaluating and making scientific claims, especially ones that establish or suggest causation, require a higher standard of evidence and precision not met by the revised examples just given. However, for making and evaluating casual claims, remembering to think in terms of contributing factors rather than the binary idea of “a cause” can go a long way towards being more reasonable.

Rule Summary: Causality is a complex area that is virtually always better expressed in terms of causal factors than “the cause,” “the reason,” “the key,” or other terms that indicate a binary distinction.