Perceiving Order in Random Events
For most people, a random, unpredictable world is unsettling (Tullett et al., 2015). We therefore have a built-in eagerness to make sense of our world. People may see a face on the Moon, hear satanic messages in music, perceive the Virgin Mary’s image on a grilled cheese sandwich. Even in random data, we often find patterns, because—here’s a curious fact of life—random sequences often don’t look random (Falk, R. et al., 2009; Nickerson, 2002, 2005). Flip a coin 50 times and you will likely be surprised at the streaks of heads or tails—much like supposed “hot” and “cold” streaks in basketball shooting and baseball hitting. In actual random sequences, patterns and streaks (such as repeating digits) occur more often than people expect (Oskarsson et al., 2009). That also makes it hard for people to generate random-like sequences. When embezzlers try to simulate random digits when deciding how much to steal, their nonrandom patterns can alert fraud experts (Poundstone, 2014).
Overconfidence in history:
“ We don’t like their sound. Groups of guitars are on their way out.”
Decca Records, in turning down a contract with the Beatles in 1962
“ Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons.”
Popular Mechanics, 1949
“ The telephone may be appropriate for our American cousins, but not here, because we have an adequate supply of messenger boys.”
British expert group evaluating the invention of the telephone
Some happenings, such as winning a lottery twice, seem so extraordinary that we find it difficult to conceive an ordinary, chance-related explanation. “But with a large enough sample, any outrageous thing is likely to happen,” noted statisticians Persi Diaconis and Frederick Mosteller (1989). An event that happens to but 1 in 1 billion people every day occurs about 7 times a day, more than 2500 times a year.
Bizarre-looking, perhaps. But actually no more unlikely than any other number sequence.
The point to remember: Hindsight bias, overconfidence, and our tendency to perceive patterns in random events tempt us to overestimate the value of commonsense thinking. But scientific inquiry can help us sift reality from illusion.