part0052

In moving on from Brexit to ET, you may think that I have gone from the sublime to the ridiculous, but I would assert that the reverse is true – I have actually gone from the ridiculous to the sublime. (I am not saying that Brexit itself is ridiculous, rather the furore that has emerged around it is). Many people believe the idea of extra-terrestrials, or ET, to be the stuff of fantasy or science fiction. It is, however, much more likely to be a matter of scientific fact rather than a fantasy. In just our own galaxy, the Milky Way, there are estimated to be 11 billion Earth-sized planets orbiting in the habitable zones of Sun-like stars (based on 2013 Kepler space mission data). And it might blow your mind to know that astronomers say there are at least a trillion galaxies in the observable Universe – which is only a small fraction of the whole Universe!

The laws of statistics say, therefore, that you can be nigh on certain that life exists beyond the earth – in fact statistics would indicate that life exists on billions of ‘exo-planets’, or trillions, or perhaps more. However, that does not necessarily mean there are trillions of intelligent ET lifeforms in existence who have technologies similar to ours. Coming back to the Milky Way, 11 billion potential habitable planets does not imply 11 billion planets where humanoids are driving around in automobiles and watching TV. There may be life lurking in primeval protein ‘soups’ on the surface of many of these planets, but it may not yet have progressed beyond that stage (after all it took 4.5 billion years to evolve on Earth). Or it may be that the life never crawled out of the sea, or evolved the thumbs needed to manipulate the tools and instruments that are used to build technologies. Or perhaps huge reptiles evolved, similar to the ones that ruled the Earth in its distant past. In the case of the Earth, there is much geological evidence that an asteroid around 10 km across hit Earth 65 million years ago. The impact, near the Gulf of Mexico, created a huge explosion and a crater about 180 km wide. Debris from the explosion was thrown into the atmosphere, dramatically altering the climate, and leading to the extinction of roughly 3/4 of the species that existed at that time, including the dinosaurs. This gave the smaller mammals, and ultimately us, the chance to rule the roost. But this seems like a very fluky thing; do we owe our existence to this seemingly very unlikely impact causing the extinction of the dinosaurs and thereby giving the mammals a chance to thrive and to eventually evolve into humans? If similar situations arose on exoplanets we would expect such impacts to be very rare and therefore, perhaps, the rise of the mammals on such planets to be correspondingly rare – unless the dinosaurs eventually led to an evolution of intelligent reptiles… (which, by the way, was something James T. Kirk knew something about; following his famous contest with the Gorn on Cestus III, A.K.A. Vasquez Rock).

The Gorn captain with Cestus III, A.K.A. Vasquez Rock, in the background; from the Star Trek episode ‘Arena’. (Pen and ink drawing by the author.)

There are many unknowns (or insufficient data as Mr Spock would say); however, for the sake of argument, let us assume that 1 million of these 10 billion potentially inhabited planets in the Milky Way have evolved intelligent life and have developed technologies that are comparable to, or superior to, ours. Then why have we not heard from them? Well the fact is that the Milky Way is an enormous structure – in fact it is around 100 thousand light years across. So even if there were 1 million intelligent life forms located randomly within it, it is unlikely that any would be located particularly close to us. Suppose there happened to be one positioned at a distance of 50 light years from us – that’s about 450 trillion km – quite a long way away I would say and they would need a strong transmitter before we would stand much of a chance of receiving a signal from them. If they were sending out very intense signals that we might be able to detect, they would need to make them highly directional, so that rather than broadcasting in every direction they would scan their transmission across the heavens, with the time they would happen to be sending them in our direction being very short. We would also need to be looking exactly in their direction at the instant they were transmitting – hence their signal would be very easy for us to miss. (Also, if we sent them a message, we would have to wait 100 long years to get an answer – making it a bit tricky to have a quick chat with them.) So, you see, the fact that we are not hearing anything from ET does not mean that he, or she, or it, does not exist – rather, probability indicates that the existence of ET is pretty much certain. The thing we don’t know is how far away ET is and in which direction our nearest neighbour is to be found.

This chapter is entitled contact with extra-terrestrials (ET) and the type of contact we have considered so far is that of communication by transmitted signals. But what about physical contact; what are the chances of an ET paying us a visit? We have noted how distant an ET exoplanet is likely to be located, so it follows that, considering the rudimentary nature of our spacecraft technology, the technology (and therefore the culture) of any ET capable of visiting Earth would be far in advance of ours. This may be why the noted physicist Professor Stephen Hawking considered the possibility of a visit from an ET lifeform to be a considerable threat:

On the other hand, Carl Sagan - physicist and all-round good egg that he was - was rather keen on the idea of alien contact. He even wrote Contact , which is a hard science fiction novel. The book, which appeared in 1985 and made the top 10 in the New York Times bestseller list, is concerned with contact between humanity and a more technologically advanced ET life form. In 1997, the book was turned into an enjoyable film starring Jodie Foster.

But Hawking was concerned that, in Earth’s history, when more advanced cultures come into contact with less advanced ones, the latter tend to suffer. He gave the example of when European explorers colonised the Americas, where the natives were pretty much devastated. And it is not just America; this pattern has been repeated over the ages over much of the globe. This consideration is what led Gene Rodenberry to create the Prime Directive for his fictional Starfleet . Gene was a futurist and a bit of a genius. He was also an optimist and envisaged a United Federation of Planets where beings on planets joined together in a cooperative union that was protected by Starfleet, with the latter comprising a fleet of starships (of which the USS Enterprise was one) and a network of star bases. His Starfleet is sworn to uphold the Prime Directive, which states: “The Prime Directive prohibits Starfleet personnel and spacecraft from interfering in the normal development of any society, and mandates that any Starfleet vessel or crew member is expendable to prevent violation of this rule”. And, “As the right of each sentient species to live in accordance with its normal cultural evolution is considered sacred, no Starfleet personnel may interfere with the normal and healthy development of alien life and culture. Such interference includes introducing superior knowledge, strength, or technology to a world whose society is incapable of handling such advantages wisely. Starfleet personnel may not violate this Prime Directive, even to save their lives and/or their ship, unless they are acting to right an earlier violation or an accidental contamination of said culture. This directive takes precedence over any and all other considerations and carries with it the highest moral obligation.” All this is pretty prescient if you ask me; I mean he is imagining a rule that will apply in the 23rd century and is telling us about it in 1966! And one thing I would like to know is this: if Roddenberry told us all about the Prime Directive in 1966 then why did Richard Nixon ignore it and dramatically escalate the Vietnam War in the following eight years and why did George W. Bush and Dick Cheney organise and prosecute the Iraq war in 2003, both of which are now generally considered to have been calamitous. Don’t they have television in the White House?

Personally, I like the Star Trek vision of how alien contact is made. According to the 1996 film Star Trek: First Contact this was achieved by Zefram Cochrane, who was apparently born in 2030, and in 2063 tinkered together humanity's first warp-capable vessel, the Phoenix, in Bozeman, Montana, out of an old Titan II nuclear missile. Apparently, on April 5, 2063, Cochrane made Earth's first warp flight, playing the suitable anthem of Steppenwolf's ‘Magic Carpet Ride’ during blast-off. Legend has it that the Phoenix's warp flight was detected by a Vulcan survey ship, the T'Plana Hath , which then made peaceful first contact with humans, including Cochrane, at the Phoenix's launch site. Well done, I say! The character of Zefram Cochrane actually appeared twice in Star Trek ; once in the original TV series in 1967 and then in the 1996 film (played by different actors each time).