part0055

Holmes says: "There are many problems of disease, many strange pathological possibilities, in the East, Watson." Considering the disease effects that are occurring as I write this, specifically the COVID-19 worldwide pandemic, which originated in China, Holmes seems to have been on the ball, again. I am not a medical expert, nor do I work in healthcare or in the essential services. I do, however, have the utmost respect for those who do fit these criteria. Imagine risking your life to help others – this is what these people do, and in doing so I can imagine they feel ‘a great Hand’ in theirs.

In Western medicine, there has always been more emphasis on curing disease rather than preventing it, but prevention has the obvious benefit of enabling avoidance of suffering or death as well as all of the expense associated with treatment. In the case of infection, we have Fleming to thank for the brilliant and revolutionary consequences of having antibiotics available. I know that some GPs have a tendency to over-prescribe antibiotics and there are problems of resistant bacteria emerging as a result, and/or patients’ immune systems can be somewhat weakened; but anybody who has any doubts about the overall benefits of antibiotics should spend some time studying what was going on in septic wards before they were available.

To summarise, antibiotics have greatly reduced the threat posed to humans from infections. Unfortunately, however, progress against viruses has not been so great and they still pose a significant threat to mankind. To minimise this threat, I strongly feel that we need to adopt a more intelligent approach to addressing it. Regrettably, this did not initially happen in Western countries when Coronavirus descended upon us.

To give a very brief summary of the history of the pandemic, it originated in Hubei Province in China, in a city known as Wuhan, in late 2019. China did not inform the rest of the world early on as to what was happening. Instead, they persecuted persons who tried to raise the alarm (including a young doctor who later died of the virus). While they did eventually stop travel from Hubei to the rest of China, they did not prevent travel from Wuhan to the rest of the world and some in the West believe this was because they did not wish to see COVID-19 have less of an economic impact in other countries than it was having in China.

Most amazing, however, was the fact that Western authorities did not prevent people from infected areas from entering their countries! The intelligent solution would have been to prevent foreigners from the infected regions from entering the country and for nationals returning home to undergo two weeks of quarantine. This would have prevented the virus from getting a foothold and would probably have made a total lockdown unnecessary.

In contrast to this, multitudes of infected people were allowed in and, once the seriousness of the resulting situation was realised, a series of lockdowns were implemented that will have economic repercussions that are likely to persist for many years. This seems like a triumph of PC attitudes over common sense, where people say ‘we can’t stop people entering our country’ despite the fact that doing this as early as possible would prevent disease and death on a prodigious scale and stopping entry would be necessary at some stage in any case. (In fact, travel bans/quarantines from high risk countries were eventually implemented several months after the disastrous COVID-19 peak in the UK – which brings to mind images of bolted horses and stable doors.) I, for one, don’t find the explanations that the politicians give for not doing this to be at all convincing. The intelligent solution also involves testing for the virus on a grand scale so that the progress and spread of the virus is known, in combination with the use of smartphones to track the movements that have been made by infected individuals and warn those who might have been in contact with them. Smartphones comprise an advanced technology that provides vast amounts of data on the location and behaviour of people, which up to now has been put to very little genuinely beneficial use. Fighting COVID-19 is an example of an application where they could have been employed to save many lives but getting this off the ground proved very slow. Mercifully, a more intelligent approach does now seem to have been adopted and a smartphone app has been launched to detect and alert people as to the movement of those who have been exposed to the virus. The frustrating thing about the pandemic is that other viruses have become epidemics in recent years and other countries such as South Korea have learnt from the experience with the result of a very minimal death toll this time around – the same could have been true of the West.

One more point must be made in relation to the origin of coronavirus in China. Some have wondered exactly where the virus emerged from, and also wished to study its behaviour in the early days of its progress, in order to help them fight the current and any future outbreaks. National governments and international organisations have, therefore, asked China to open its doors to an independent, international investigation into the origins of the novel coronavirus that has caused the current COVID-19 pandemic, as well as into the nation’s early response to the outbreak. However, the Chinese government has said it does not wish to cooperate, claiming that the request for an independent investigation is ‘politically motivated’, and ‘would hamper China’s efforts to combat the virus’. China’s lack of cooperation, its silence, and signs that China is stifling research into the origins of the disease by its own scientists, have fuelled theories that the virus accidently leaked from a lab there. Whether or not this is the case, China’s attitude, and unwillingness to take responsibility or apologise for the outbreak, speak of a power-structure that is very different from the West – more secretive, undemocratic. It is behaving like what it perhaps always was: an authoritarian mercantile dictatorship; and if that continues it is likely that the West will have to be more realistic about its relationship with China and re-appraise the extent to which it threatens Western security and prosperity. Having said this, I would like to make clear that the above comments on China refer to the Chinese Communist Party, rather than the Chinese people themselves. I have numerous friends and close associates who are Chinese; and I have also supervised a number of PhD students, originally from China, who did excellent work. I would say that I find the Chinese I have worked with to be intelligent, hardworking, and with a very good attitude.

As I write this, the UK, and in fact the world, is still in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic. The response of the UK and indeed most Western countries has been to impose a strict lockdown. While there can be little doubt that the restrictions imposed are saving lives and are thus necessary, at the same time the impositions of such restricting measures on humans, who are, after all, social animals, has created much anxiety as well as various forms of inconvenience and, in fact, real suffering. As usual, it is the poorest and most disadvantaged in society who tend to suffer most; but there is little that can be done about the restrictions until the peaks of the pandemic have passed. All that we can do is sit tight, endure, and be reassured that the disease will pass, and brighter, better times lie ahead.

In the meantime, we may take heart and gain some comfort by thinking about other times in history when the people of Britain have been sorely tested. To anyone who is perplexed by the lockdown situation or who needs inspiration, I say this: consider the British situation in the autumn of 1940. A Nazi war machine, highly powerful, efficient, and ruthless had overrun nearly all of Europe and had ambitions to take over the world. The only country making a stand against Nazi tyranny and a new Dark Age was the UK; and much rested on the country’s shoulders – the future of the freedom-loving world – for years to come – or perhaps even decades or centuries. And Britain stood ALONE (except for excellent troops from various parts of the British Empire/Commonwealth that were staunch to the end – and like the mother country they consistently punched above their weight). In 1940, most of the world thought that Britain was finished, but with characteristic courage and determination she beat the odds; and with a dogged perseverance and tenacity was eventually successful and emerged victorious. While the coronavirus is, of course, tragic for those who have suffered or died, and their families, the threat to our country in 1940 was immeasurably greater; and now the UK also has great and powerful allies and friends who are all pulling together with us to overcome this emergency. So, my advice is to have a cup of tea, read ‘The Last Enemy’ and watch ‘Darkest Hour’. Churchill may have witnessed our finest hour, but the best is yet to come – if we stay calm and carry on the future will be a great one.

Stop press! Saw a newsflash just after writing this: “The first effective coronavirus vaccine can prevent more than 90% of people from getting Covid-19, a preliminary analysis shows. The developers - Pfizer and BioNTech - described it as a "great day for science and humanity". Their vaccine has been tested on 43,500 people in six countries and no safety concerns have been raised.” Latest data shows that the BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine is effective in 95% of cases and there are also other vaccines on the way – such as the Oxford/AstraZeneca one – for which there are good indications and high hopes. So, it’s early days for the vaccines, but the news is definitely good. Hooray! (Another example of how science and technology can save our lives… )