To John B. Chomeau, for brilliantly leading the way seventeen years ago in the search for practical innovative techniques that empower objective analysis.
To Noel E. Firth, for inviting me to develop and help teach his splendid course on Analysis for International Security at Georgetown University, for his imaginative ideas for devising improvements in the analytic structuring techniques we taught, and for his insightful, creative suggestions concerning the manuscript for this book.
To Lt. Col. Thomas H. Murray (USA Ret.), for letting me tap his abundant intellect as I probed the method and madness of different analytic techniques, for demonstrating in the classroom how to teach them, and in particular for independently collaborating with Richards J. Heuer, Jr., in conceiving the hypothesis-testing matrix that is described herein.
To Karl Weber, managing director of Times Business Books, for granting me this opportunity, for skillfully, patiently, and with keen professionalism guiding me through the intricacies of publishing, and most of all for his unwavering faith in the merit of my work.
To Nancy Inglis and Luke Mitchell of Times Business Books for their unstinting help along the way, and to Lynn Anderson for her skillful editing.