Letter 20 Have an Engineer’s Eye: Watching for Future Technologies
Dear Natasha and Nick,
Here I am once again writing to you about engineering, as requested. I sometimes think that we engineers can be thought of as worker bees toiling away at a task that confronts us in that moment. Yet, we may be oblivious to the fact that the very skills and knowledge we possess—and even the technology, technique, or process we may be involved in—is something we, in part, inherited from our predecessors.
This was ably stated by the renowned physicist Sir Isaac Newton (1642–1727) who once wrote, “If I have seen farther, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants.” Recognizing our debt to the past is all well and good. But, notice that his statement also focuses on using what lies behind in order to better see what lies ahead. And that’s what this letter is about, namely, the future!
Now, I’m not going to play the futurist by trying to predict what technologies will emerge in the near or far future. Instead, I’d like to do 4 things below. First, I’d like to offer some philosophical thoughts about the overall nature of scientific and technological progress. Next, I’d like to suggest a few practical reasons for watching and embracing emerging technologies. Then, I’d like to give a few ideas about the various resources that we can consult—and their pros and cons—to keep updated on new emerging technologies. And finally, I’d like to finish with a few real-life stories.
How Do Science and Technology Progress?
I’m not going to try to answer this question in a comprehensive way here; after all, I’m not a professional historian. And there are entire books dedicated to this topic. However, I think there are some issues that are worth highlighting since they seem to show up in history over and over again. In particular, I’d like to briefly discuss the role of anomalies, hybrids, and peripheral factors on the fuzzy progress of science and technology that leads to new emerging ideas and products (see Figure 20.1).
Figure 20.1 The progress of science and technology.
Thomas Kuhn (1922–1996) wrote a classic book in 1962 called The Structure of Scientific Revolutions that’s been influential and controversial in understanding how science advances into the future. Prior to his book, philosophers of science taught that science always makes advances through a step-by-step linear process of making an hypothesis, performing a test, and revising the hypothesis based on test results, almost like solving a puzzle. But, Kuhn’s analysis showed that the step-by-step process of normal everyday science sometimes uncovers anomalies that reveal flaws in old paradigms. These old paradigms eventually are unable to explain the growing evidence of anomalies and are forced to give way to completely new paradigms. Thus, he coined the term “paradigm shift.” Science, therefore, progresses through long periods of evolutionary steps punctuated occasionally by revolutionary jumps. Of course, there are always science laggards who fight the new paradigm until they die or undergo a type of intellectual conversion to accept the new paradigm. So, it often takes a generation for the new paradigm to become fully established. Similarly, I would argue that technologies developed by engineers are accepted and used by society for long stretches of time, until new technologies suddenly emerge that prove to be superior in performance. These new products can then quickly replace the old products to become the new state-of-the-art.
In addition to anomalies, my opinion is that another factor that sometimes rapidly opens up new vistas for science and technology is hybrids. By this term I mean either temporarily bringing together interdisciplinary teams composed of different experts to achieve common goals, or permanently combining long-established specialties to create entirely new fields having their own experts. Without such short-term or long-term hybridization, these new areas of research and development would not be possible and, hence, would slow the progress of science and technology. And it is at these new intersection points between older fields of study that sometimes the most rapid progress is made in research and development. So, for example, mechanical engineers, materials engineers, and orthopedic surgeons often temporarily work together by lending their particular set of skills and knowledge to the team in order to develop novel medical implants for replacing bad joints (like hip and knee replacements) and repairing broken bones (like cables, nails, plates, and screws). Alternatively, the permanent merging of established fields like mechanical engineering, electronics engineering, and computer science has launched the field of robotics as a separate specialty and administrative department at some universities and technical schools. There are many other examples that could be given, but these are sufficient to illustrate the point.
And, finally, let’s turn to what I like to call the peripheral factors (i.e., nonscientific and nontechnological) that affect the progress of science and technology either in a positive or negative way. This includes cultural trends, economic changes, epidemic and pandemic diseases, natural disasters, political upheavals, religious ideas, wars and rumors of wars, and so forth. These can cause jumps upward, drops downward, or plateauing in the advancement of science and technology. So, for instance, a change in political leadership in a nation can bring more or less government financial support to research and development depending on the promises, policies, and priorities of the new government. Similarly, epidemic and pandemic diseases can force universities, industries, and governments to funnel more money to scientists and engineers to rapidly find, produce, and distribute innovative cures, but diseases can also slow down progress if masses of scientists and engineers become ill or die. Or, military conflict can instigate a race between rival nations to see who can develop more advanced technologies to create more efficient weapons, but conflict can also destroy many valuable research facilities and kill many valuable researchers thereby slowing down science and technology. And religious belief can encourage science and technology if it teaches that God (or the gods) is a grand designer who created a logical and orderly universe that can be studied in a systematic way, but religion can discourage science and technology if it believes that God (or the gods) is fickle and erratic so that the universe has no regularity or laws that can be discovered.
Why Should Engineers Embrace the Future?
It’s often said that the future is completely unknown. Although that’s true in the strictest sense, it’s possible to take a look at how the past has shaped the present, incorporate some lessons into our engineering work, and then take a reasonably educated guess as to how the present may potentially affect the future. One of the worst things we engineers can do is to be solely focused on solving the urgent problems of today without giving thought to how that might affect future generations in good and bad ways. I think there are excellent practical reasons for engineers to keep an eye on possible future technologies. Here are some realistic scenarios.
Let’s say we are engineers teaching and training the next generation at university. We’ll prepare them better for future careers in the workforce by informing them about new cutting-edge research that they may eventually encounter. Developing such quality students has a beneficial ripple effect. If our students go into the workforce better prepared in skill and knowledge, they will perform better in their jobs. This will, in turn, improve our university’s reputation for engineering education, which means government, industry, and private donors will invest more money into our university. This will increase our university’s ability to purchase or develop the best state-of-the-art teaching resources, which will attract even more students to our university to be educated as high-caliber engineers who contribute to society. And so on.
Or, for example, if we are engineers who are designing and building a product in industry, we can incorporate new emerging technologies to greatly improve the performance of our own product for our clients and customers. Developing such quality products has a beneficial ripple effect. If we give our clients and customers superior products, they will be happier because it will effectively solve their practical problems. Then, they will be more likely to hire us again to solve other problems, which will bring more money into our company. Next, this will also improve our company’s reputation in society, which can bring in a whole new group of first-time customers and clients. The increased money from old and new clientele will strengthen our company’s financial status, thereby securing our own personal jobs and allowing the company to better contribute its expertise to improve society. And so on.
Or, as another case in point, if we are engineers doing advanced research in a government facility, our knowledge of emerging technologies can improve our own research results and help us avoid the mistakes and dead ends of other researchers. Developing such quality research has a beneficial ripple effect. If we are able to conduct cutting-edge research that produces better findings, conserves resources, and saves money, then the government will be more confident in its research institutes and the research engineers who work there. This means more funding for the various research programs going on, thereby allowing us engineers to expand our research endeavors by purchasing more state-of-the-art equipment and taking on new projects. This, in turn, allows us to provide more and better solutions for various societal problems, making for a safer and healthier society that is able to be more economically productive.
And last, but not least, there is a caution we should take to heart, whether we are engineers in university, industry, or government. Although this is not the time for a discussion of engineering ethics, I want to briefly highlight one point—just because we can do something, doesn’t mean we should. Power has to be tempered by wisdom. What I mean is that there have always been, and always will be, many emerging technologies for which we cannot fully see the future consequences, whether good or bad. So, just because something is a cutting-edge technology, doesn’t necessarily mean we should wholeheartedly welcome it into our own engineering work. In some cases, we may not have much say in accepting or rejecting it, especially if we are only junior professors, junior engineers, or junior researchers. Our employers may be the decision-makers. But, let’s at least be the kind of engineers who are consciously willing to evaluate the beneficial and destructive potential of any technology and then do what we can to accept or reject it.
Which Resources Can Keep Engineers Up-to-Date?
There are a number of ways engineers can keep updated on new scientific discoveries and emerging technologies and even be inspired to think of original ideas. These resources can help engineers, as well as their universities, industries, and governments, to enhance their own engineering endeavors. Keep in mind, however, that each of these resources has their own pros and cons, so it’s probably a good idea to utilize several of these, rather than relying solely on one as your main source for information. Here are a few key suggestions, but maybe you can think of others.
Get to know a researcher. These scientists and engineers may work at a university, for a company, or in a government-run facility. They personally use analytical/mathematical modeling, computer analysis, experimental testing, on-site field observations, and/or back-of-the-envelope calculations to conduct their research. So, they are on the frontiers of discovery on a daily basis and would even be able to provide you with the most recent data that’s been calculated or measured earlier the same day. However, these new findings may be hard for you to obtain for several reasons. Some researchers sign a non-disclosure agreement (NDA) with their employer or other sponsor so that technological secrets are protected until products are patented, reach the marketplace, and sold; there is a lot of money at stake. Also, many researchers don’t want their methodologies or results to be made public prematurely, since their employment may depend on them being the first to publish new discoveries in peer-reviewed academic journals before their rivals do; there are careers, future funding, reputations, and awards at stake. And sometimes, in the case of governments and the military, the latest research and even the operating principles of older technologies are perpetually kept secret for national security reasons.
Go to research conferences. These face-to-face or online research meetings may be sponsored by scientific or professional engineering societies, universities, industries, and/or governments. They are primarily meant to give science and engineering researchers a chance to meet with one another to exchange ideas in private conversations, in public lectures, and using posters; specific meetings may or may not be open to non-members or non-presenters. Also, short research summaries called “abstracts” of individual projects are published online or collected into online or paper books called “transactions” or “proceedings”; specific items may or may not be accessible to the general public. This information, though, will eventually become outdated like any resource. Another thing to look out for at these conferences is industry exhibitors who wish to showcase their new or emerging products to conference attendees in the hopes of selling their goods to, and/or fostering potential partnerships with, researchers.
Go to fairs and competitions. Many universities and individual university departments sponsor science and technology fairs that encourage their researchers to give short presentations and create physical displays that highlight their latest findings. They do this to reach out to the general public, recruit new science and engineering students, garner the interest of potential private donors and industry sponsors, and allow researchers to interact with each other. Similarly, some companies and government agencies sponsor competitions open to any bright and enterprising individuals or teams from the public to come up with unique scientific and technological solutions that currently face the company or the society the government represents. The winners of these competitions often get some monetary rewards, potential job offers, and achievements they can proudly add to their resumé. The downsides of fairs and competitions are that they don’t necessarily occur frequently in your specialty or close to you geographically, and there may be some proprietary information that you won’t be allowed to obtain or use even if it is of interest.
Read research articles. These online or paper journals are the traditional and primary way that new results from science and engineering research are disseminated by experts for other experts. The articles that appear in these journals are almost always peer-reviewed by other experts in a single-blind or double-blind process, so you can be assured that the methodologies and findings have been scrutinized for quality prior to publication. The articles are scientifically and technically sophisticated and detailed, so they are excellent sources for your work. Journals in online and/or paper format can be purchased by individuals or institutions by subscription, which allows access to all content depending on the subscription level; alternatively, individual articles can be purchased online. Some journals, however, are deliberately offered by the publisher as “open access,” which means anyone can go online, view, or download articles freely without limit. The major drawback of journal articles is that they are already out-of-date by the time they are published. The reason is that there is often a time lag of several months to a year or so between the time that authors initially submit their article to the journal to the actual time it is finally published.
Read media releases. These are short online or paper announcements made to the public by individual researchers, universities, companies, or governments about their latest scientific or engineering research results or product availability. If you search the internet, you can easily find such information on the individual’s or organization’s website or other social media posts. You can also often sign-up to automatically receive emails from the individual or organization about new developments. This information is eventually also conveyed to the general public via television, radio, newspapers, and so forth. Some of this information may inspire you and even trigger creative thinking for your own engineering work. The main disadvantage of these announcements is that they are often superficial from a scientific and technical point of view since they are really meant for the general public rather than experts in the field. Also, by the time a new product is announced to the public, it is likely already patented or patent-pending; thus, its basic design and operating principle cannot easily be stolen or incorporated into another engineer’s work.
Read books and magazines. First, textbooks for universities that have recently been published contain mostly well-established core information that science and engineering students need to learn at university. In a sense, they are written by experts for emerging experts. But, textbooks may also have content about recent technologies, techniques, or processes provided in a sophisticated and detailed way that could directly benefit your engineering work. Second, books and magazines for the general public about science and technology can also contain well-established core information, but they can also have content about new developments that could, at the very least, introduce a new idea to you and inspire you to pursue a course of action. It’s not likely, however, that the general public books and magazines will have enough scientific and technical content for you in the long term. Unfortunately, these types of literature go out-of-date very quickly and, thus, publishers often publish revised editions every so often.
Read and watch science fiction. On June 19th, 1988, the legendary science and sci-fi writer Isaac Asimov (1920–1992) was interviewed for the Public Broadcasting Service (PBS) television program Open Mind. Asimov stated that “Good science fiction tries to invent a society which is different from our own [society]—distinctly different—but which holds lessons for our own [society] … And a friend of mine says that science fiction writers are scouts sent out by mankind to survey the future.” Now, we all know that many sci-fi books, short stories, television shows, internet shows, and movies have been produced over the years. But, did you know that many of these works were created by people actually trained as real scientists and engineers? Some sci-fi works are high-quality masterpieces that have inspired generations of storytellers, scientists, engineers, and society in general. Other sci-fi works are low-quality excursions meant only for superficial and temporary entertainment and are quickly forgotten. Some sci-fi stories envision a bright future where science and technology have solved many of the world’s problems, whereas others see a darker vision in which the misuse of science and technology has brought the world to the brink of self-destruction. Whatever the case, sci-fi tales commonly explore ideas that are far ahead of their time by proposing future technologies and societies that the ordinary engineer maybe would never even imagine on their own. Other sci-fi tales explore ideas more solidly rooted in established principles of biology, chemistry, and physics. But, all these tales can inspire engineers to think outside-the-box and then use their skill and knowledge to push the limits of their work, thereby advancing human civilization into the future.
Watch educational television and videos. Science-oriented and technology-focused biographies, documentaries, and programs can keep you updated on the latest and greatest developments, as well as about problems and disasters. Most of these aren’t developed by experts for other experts, but rather by storytellers and journalists who want to inform the general public. So, their scientific and technical content may not be sophisticated or detailed enough to be of any immediate use to you, but they may introduce you to some new concepts. Also, as with any resource, these can also go out-of-date very quickly.
A Few Real-Life Stories
The television series Prophets of Science Fiction profiles important science fiction writers who’ve predicted, or strongly encouraged, real developments in science and technology. One episode highlights Jules Verne’s classic 1865 novel From the Earth to the Moon. The novel tells the tale of Americans who use a giant cannon to shoot a 3-man capsule from southern Florida to reach the moon in 3 days. The passengers experience weightlessness on their journey to the moon, and then they splash down in the ocean upon their return to Earth. Amazingly, this describes in exact detail the actual mission to the moon and back over a century later in 1969 with the Apollo 11 spaceship, except that a rocket instead of a cannon was used. Similarly, another episode discusses Sir Arthur C. Clarke’s award-winning 1979 novel The Fountains of Paradise. The novel tells the story of an engineer who conceives of a tower that reaches 36,000 km straight up into space and acts like a space elevator for transporting people and goods to a spacecraft docked at the tower’s top. Although originally proposed by a real-life Russian physicist in 1895, the idea was periodically revived, but never caught on seriously because of technical challenges. Clarke’s novel went a long way in popularizing the idea again. Consequently, by 2011, there were at least 60 universities in the United States, as well as NASA, seriously trying to turn the idea into reality.
This next vignette demonstrates how keeping an eye out for educational television and videos about cutting-edge research—although mainly meant for the general public—can bring about powerful benefits to various stakeholders. An engineer I know once worked for a company that was doing research and development of a brand new product that could solve a basic, but very widespread, societal problem. If successful, the product could result in massive sales to the public. This engineer gave several television interviews to well-known media outlets with the complete support of their company because this engineer was the real expert on the topic. The interviews went very smoothly, and they were broadcast in due course. The engineer’s company benefitted immensely because the interviews greatly increased the number of visits to their website by a factor of 5. But, perhaps even more importantly, there were several other organizations who saw and were impressed by the television interviews and eventually partnered with the engineer’s company to fabricate the new product and bring it to the marketplace.
The following brief personal anecdote shows that published research articles are a good way to find out about the latest findings in a particular field. There are more impressive examples I could give, but I retell my own experience to highlight that most research like my own is a slow step-by-step process that typically moves science and technology forward in small ways. Now, my own research as a mechanical engineer has been focused on biomedical applications. You could say that I’m really a biomedical engineer. My work has involved measuring the mechanical properties of biological tissues, doing computational and experimental stress analysis of medical implants, and developing new biomaterials for those medical implants. I’ve had the good fortune to often publish my new findings as articles in peer-reviewed scholarly journals. Other engineers, scientists, and surgeons have kept track of some, but not all, of my newest work by the moderate number of private requests I’ve had from peers to provide them with copies of a few of my articles, the high volume of visits and downloads a few of my online articles have achieved, and the frequent number of times a few of my articles have been cited by other researchers in their published works.
So, What’s the “Take Home” Message of This Letter?
My core point has been that we engineers should keep a watchful eye on new scientific findings and emerging technologies. The reason is that it can inspire us with innovative ideas and help us make important improvements in our own work. So, if we work at the university, are we willing to discover and learn how to use emerging new tools for teaching our engineering students? Or, if we work in industry, are we willing to discover and learn how to use emerging new tools for designing, building, inspecting, repairing, or disposing of our products? Or, if we work in government, are we willing to discover and learn how to use emerging new tools for conducting our research? I would encourage us not to be too reluctant in giving up old tried-and-true ways to embrace the future unless there are good practical or ethical reasons for doing so. I hope this has been a useful and uplifting read.
Best regards,
R.Z.