Have you ever seen those commercials that string a series of disastrous events together which lead to how buying their product will save you from all the disasters? They’re funny because they exploit connections between seemingly random, unrelated events just to steer you toward a conclusion. As if not liking my haircut will lead to a typhoon. These commercials use non sequiturs (conclusions which do not logically follow) to make us laugh and remember a product. In that sense, they’re effective.
One of the most common logical fallacies is the confusion of correlation with causation. The fallacy is presuming that two things that are related somehow—perhaps by timing, or similarity of appearance or theme—must mean that one causes or leads to the other. Whether you’ve had a formal course in logic or not, you’ve encountered this one. You can literally find examples of it every day in newspapers, blogs, and of course commercials. I ran across one today: a television report dutifully told viewers about the “interesting fact” that as the shoe sizes of elementary kids increase, so do scores on standardized reading exams. Sure, both studies run at the same time and even on the same kids have a correlation, but did one really cause the other? Should I despair if my child has small feet? “Sally will never be able to read well unless her feet grow.” I hope you see the error in this thinking.
Confusing correlation and causation can be comical, but when it shows up in sermons, Sunday school lessons, and Bible study resources, it isn’t funny. Even doctrinal beliefs can derive from this logical fallacy. One example that I’ve seen repeatedly is the belief that there was a rebellion of one-third of the angels in heaven prior to the fall, which in turn explains the temptation in Eden. The Bible nowhere teaches such a cause-and-effect. A rebellion of one-third of the angels occurs in Revelation 12:1–9, where it is clearly connected to the first coming of Jesus and his resurrection (Rev. 12:5), not Eden. But since Revelation 12:9 mentions the serpent, there is some sort of correlation intended. But very obviously this rebellion did not precipitate Genesis 3 and the fall.
The point should be clear: we must pause and think carefully about any claim we run across, or pops into our minds, in order to avoid this fallacy.