Two Super Horses¹

Exploring the ramifications of being undefeated

The two greatest racehorses in the US, and among the very best in the world, are Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta, both females or mares as they are called.² In 2009, Rachel, at three, was beating the best 3-year-olds by 20 lengths. I saw one race, the Kentucky Oaks, the derby for fillies in May She was sired by Medagiia d'Oro, a very top runner who was a lot faster than any males running these days. He could run 82s on the scale of Equiform, see Figures 40.1 and 40.7. Much of his ability shows up in Rachel. So with female competition too easy, they ran Rachel against first 3-year-old males, then against older males. And she won all four of these races against males including the Preakness, the first female winner in 50 plus years. So it was a terrific year with all her races on the east coast and on dirt. Her past performances are in Figure 40.4.

Meanwhile, in California, a 5-year-old mare named Zenyatta was winning all her races against the best females. They then entered Zenyatta, who at 17 hands is bigger than any of the males, into the Breeders' Cup Classic, the worlds's most difficult and important race. Zenyatta moved from the back of the pack to win easily. Zenyatta has a style that stays behind, then, when the race finish comes closer, zooms like a rocket ship to beat the other horses. Her final of a mile is as fast or faster than Secretariat's was. She has amazing agility. Her pace numbers in Figure 40.1 show this behavior. The way you read these numbers is as follows: For her November 7 race, she ran 61 in the early part of the race, 54 (slower) in the mid section, the zoomed to an 801 at the finish. The w means that she won the race. For comparison, 80 has been good enough to wn most of the recent Kentucky Derbies.

Fig. 40.1 Zenyatta's pace numbers (dates to be added)

Fig. 40.2 Pace Numbers. Source: Equiform

Fig. 40.3 Daily Racing Form Data : Zenyatta

The highest I have ever seen is the four 84s that Ghostzapper ran. The that Zenyatta ran to win the 2009 Breeders' Cup Classic is not especially fast.

There are 17 races here and 17 wins. Actually, she has won two more races so is 19/19. If she remains undefeated, and likely she will have her final race in the November 6 Breeders' Cup Classic at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, she will be the third such US horse since 1900!³ Colin (15/15) in 1907 and Personal Ensign (13//13) in 1988 were the others. I consider Personal Ensign's final race, the 1988 Breaders'Cup distaff as good as any I have ever seen.⁴ The great Italian trainer and breeder Frederico Tesio (1869-1954) had three undefeated horses in the 1930s and later, including Ribot (16/16), Nearco (14/14), Cavaliere d'Arpino (6/6)and Donatello II who lost only one of nine races. And that's it! So this is a big deal. Tesio, relying on his wife's help, had inexpensive horses on his farm on Lake Maggiore in northern Italy, but he was a true anomaly person. Looking back many generations, he bred cheap to cheap and got champions! Others breed the best to the best and hope for the best.

I had expected that Rachel and Zenyatta would be joint Horse of the Year winners but they gave the award to Rachel. She did run at more racetracks, in more states, against males more times on dirt and Zenyatta won all but one of her races on California synthetic surfaces and ran only against females. So the stage was set for a 2010 showdown: who was the better horse? Oaklawn Park offered a $5 million bonus if both of them appeared. This got scuttled because Rachel actually lost two races by narrow margins finishing second both times. Since one race was against the Zenyatta barn's second string mare, Zardana, it was clear that the real Rachel was not running. But Rachel has won her next two races convincingly, so she is back. It remains to be determined if the two will meet before or during the Breeders' Cup. Figures 40.1 and 40.7 compare their pace speed numbers which are close. Their styles are different: Rachel starts the race on or near the lead and powers a head. Zenyatta is slow, way behind then is a rocket-ship to win the race.

Update: That's what I wrote in the first draft of this column dated August 9, 2010. But this did not happen. I was at Saratoga in late August/early September and Rachel was running for the first time in a mile race. She was in a beautiful speed dual with Life at Ten who had won her last six races with speed ratings similar to but not quite as good as Rachel's on August 29 in the Personal Ensign Grade I $300,000 race. With the two of them close together and separated from the rest of the field. But such duels often wear out the horses and, indeed, Persistently at 20-1 nipped Rachel at the finish, see the chart of the race in Figure 40.5 and the photos I took of the race in Figure 40.6. I give credit to the legendary trainer of mares running races, Shug McGaughey for the upset. Prior to the race, it was clear from the previous race and final speed numbers that Rachel as well as Life at Ten were 20+ lengths better than Persistently in the pace figures; see Figure 40.1. But once again we are reminded that they run the races on the racetrack not in the computer! The finish was Persistently over Rachel by a length over Life at Ten by 104 lengths in a slow time of 2:04:45. Experience and calculations in my racing books such as Ziemba and Hausch (1987) suggest that it is wise to make large place bets on such 2-5 favorites. I won that. So after a hard decision, Rachel was retired. To me, this was not a correct decision as the real Rachel seemed back and deserved a chance to try to get back to the top but owner Jess Jackson of Kendell-Jackson win fame decided to give her a rest before breeding her to champion Curlin which he also owns.

Figures 40.4, 40.7 and 40.5 have the past performances, Equiform pace figures and the chart of the race, respectively. Figure 40.6ab show Rachel taking the lead, then being run down by Persistently near the finish. These two were like one reminiscent of the Affirmed-Alydar triple crown races - again see Steve Roman's website chef-de-race.com to see these confrontations. But they wore each other out and Persistently, the 20-1 longshot, beat Rachel Alexandra and Life at Ten was third. It was another great training job by legendary trainer Shug McGaughey. If you look at the pace figures of Rachel Alexandra and Persistently, it seems impossible for Rachel Alexandra to lose. This is a reminder that races are run on the race track not in the handicapping sheets. The ratings were Rachel Alexandra 116, Life at Ten 112, Miss Singhsix 103 and Persistently at 93. See also the Equiform pace figures with Rachel Alexandra running 77's to 80 with Persistently's best being 73 on that scale (Figure 40.7). This was a classic Dr Z place bet which I made on Rachel Alexandra. But with a 95 Beyer speed figure and now three seconds and two wins in 2010, Rachel Alexandra was retired to rest and go at 4 to be bred to Curlin, who is also owned by Jess Jackson of Kendall-Jackson wine fame.

Fig. 40.4 Daily Racing Form Past Performance Data: Rachel Alexandra and four others in the Personal Ensign Race

Fig. 40.5 Rachel Alexandra Chart

Fig. 40.6 The Rachel Alexandra-Persistently face off

Fig. 40.7 Pace numbers of Rachel Alexandra, Life at Ten and Persistently

¹Edited from Wilmott, November 2010.

²We will see at the Breeders' Cup but the mare, Goldikova, a 10 time Grade I winner and Breeders' Cup mile grass winner in 2008 and 2009 is in the running too. Goldikova won in 2010 also to be the first three-peat but she lost in 2011.

³There are many undefeated or once beaten horses - a list is on Wikipedia. But if one restricts consideration to top quality races, at least ten races, and post 1900, there are just these three in the US.

⁴You can watch this racing masterpiece as well as Zenyatta's Breeders' Cup win and many other great races for free on my colleague Steve Roman's website chef-de-race.com. Just go to videos. There is a lot more on this excellent website which is updated regularly.