President Yuri Kalinin entered the Kremlin conference room, joining his advisors seated around the table. To the president’s right were Defense Minister Anton Nechayev and Foreign Minister Andrei Lavrov, while to his left sat Fleet Admiral Georgiy Ozerov and Nikolai Barsukov, director of Russia’s Federal Security Service, one of the two main successors to the KGB and responsible for in-country counterintelligence, counterterrorism, and both military and civilian surveillance.
It had been twenty-four hours since Kazan was ordered to report in, and after sifting through the data, Nechayev had requested the meeting—and Director Barsukov’s presence—to brief Kalinin on his conclusions.
Nechayev began the brief, opening the folder before him. “We have reviewed the American claim that one of their submarines was torpedoed by one of ours, and here’s what we know. First, Kazan left several days ago on its maiden deployment to the Mediterranean, and its track took it through the area where the Americans claim their submarine was sunk.”
Kalinin interrupted. “I assume Kazan was submerged during its transit, so how do we know its track?”
Nechayev turned to Fleet Admiral Ozerov, who explained. “On the surface, submarines are allowed to take whatever route they want to get from point A to point B. Once submerged, however, they follow a preplanned transit route, which prevents more than one of our submarines from traveling in the same waterspace.”
Kalinin nodded his understanding and Nechayev continued. “We have also evaluated the American claim that a Russian torpedo detonated in their submarine’s operating area. Our analysts agree. There was an explosion at the time and place the Americans claim, and its strength correlates to the explosive load of our heavyweight torpedoes.
“Also, we have directed Kazan to report in, but so far there has been no response.”
Kalinin considered the information, then asked, “How do we know it wasn’t Kazan that was torpedoed and the claim that one of their submarines has been sunk isn’t an elaborate ruse by the Americans?”
“That’s unlikely,” Nechayev replied. “The torpedo explosion was characteristic of a Russian torpedo, not of an American one. American heavyweight torpedo warheads are loaded with an explosive compound called PBXN-105, which is slightly more powerful and produces a different bubble transient. Our analysts are confident that the torpedo that exploded was one of ours.”
Still not convinced, Kalinin floated another explanation. “Perhaps there was a collision and Kazan was sunk or damaged, which explains why she hasn’t responded, and one of her torpedoes detonated during the collision.”
Nechayev shook his head. “The explosion was characteristic of an in-water detonation, not one inside a Torpedo Room. The torpedo was launched.”
“There must be a rational explanation for what happened,” Kalinin said. “Perhaps Kazan thought it was being attacked and fired in self-defense?”
Fleet Admiral Ozerov replied this time. “Then why hasn’t she reported in?”
Kalinin fell silent and Nechayev waited as the president slowly accepted the most likely scenario.
Kazan had gone rogue.
Finally, Kalinin asked, “What are your recommendations?”
Nechayev replied, “First, we continue ordering Kazan to report in. Second, we examine every detail of Kazan’s deployment preparations to identify any anomalies. Third, and this is why I requested Director Barsukov’s presence, we should investigate every member of Kazan’s crew, beginning with its commanding officer.”
Kalinin nodded his concurrence. “Move quickly. We must determine why Kazan’s crew would attack an American submarine, and anything else they may have planned.”