“Too many people hire financial advisers and other experts,” says Mr. Trump, “without realizing that those advisers can wreck their lives.” Although Mr. Trump regularly consults with and relies on world-class experts, such as golf course designer Tom Fazio and architects Helmut Jahn and I. M. Pei, he never abandons his responsibility to make the final decision after multiple rounds of questions and research.

On one project, for example, Mr. Trump replaced Helmut Jahn because of Jahn’s recurring conflicts with the New York City planning staff. (Unless you want trouble with your permitting, interact with the zoning and permit folks as cordially as possible.)

When it comes to market research, Mr. Trump decides. He doesn’t employ a big staff of number crunchers to tell him where to build or what features to include. He knows his intended customers first hand.

I asked Jill Cremer, the Trump Organization’s vice president of development and marketing, what techniques the company uses to find locations to build. She laughed and said, “We ask Mr. Trump, that’s our research.” She went on to say that he also chooses the carpeting, finishes, and many other building exterior and interior details.

In one instance, when Mr. Trump completely delegated a major property management task, he regretted his lack of attention when trouble hit. “Unfortunately,” he lamented, “I made a critical mistake. I should have become involved myself in the beginning.”

Naturally, someone who runs a company the size of the Trump Organization can’t do everything himself. But Mr. Trump is no hands-off manager. If something happens, Mr. Trump is there to take responsibility. “I want to get the opinions of others before I decide,” says Mr. Trump, “but I’ve gained more knowledge by asking questions than I ever have by commissioning a consulting report.”

Consult experts, but never abandon your critical thought processes. Ask penetrating questions of everyone and anyone. Frank McKinney, the iconic Florida builder of $50 million spec homes tells this anecdote about Mr. Trump. “When I first met Mr. Trump,” says McKinney, “he zipped right past the small talk. For the next 30 minutes, he fired questions at me to learn how I achieved so much in the luxury market. I’ve never met anyone so inquisitive.”

Most people fear success. They fear commitment. They fear decisions. That gives people like me who know how to make great decisions an unbeatable advantage.

DO YOU ENDLESSLY mull over “What should I do” types of questions ? Do you second-guess and rehash the decisions you’ve made? Do you regret past decisions? Have your past decisions sometimes failed to produce the results you wanted? Would you like to make better decisions in the future? If you answer yes to any of these questions (and who wouldn’t?), here’s how to open your life to a brighter future: Revise your decision-making process as it applies to your investing and your life.

Your life depends on the process you use to make investment decisions.

You can elevate your attitude, eliminate negative self-talk, plan your schedule, connect with other people, and learn everything about everything. But to become a top-gun property entrepreneur, you also have to figure out how to adjust your sights, where to aim, and when to pull the trigger.

Sometimes we go on for hours in the boardroom to get all of the information we need to make a knowledgeable decision.

In matters of real estate, as in matters of life, nothing substitutes for your ability to execute great decisions—decisions that move you quickly toward where you need to go. Yet, few (if any) of the courses that universities and colleges offer provide much help. They’re long on problem solving but short on how to translate those “solutions” into profit-making action.

Contrary to dogma, “knowledge alone does not yield power.” To power your life, put that knowledge to work. “I knew I should have . . .” doesn’t get the job done.

How do you increase the odds that your decisions will pay off the way you want them to? Easy. Do not focus on the decisions you need to make. Yes, you read that right—do not focus on the decisions you need to make.

First, engineer a fail-safe decision-making system. Hundreds of times, I’ve heard people complain, “Man, I screwed that up. I really made a bad decision when I . . .” Yet rarely does anyone say, “Gee, all too often my decisions turn out badly because I’ve got a lousy decision-making process.” However, more than likely, the fault does lie with your process.

So let’s talk system. Let’s work to improve the quality of your investment decision-making process. Here are five pointers that will help:

1. Rank priorities, explore possibilities.

2. Get your facts straight.

3. Use rules of thumb cautiously.

4. Question advice and recommendations (expert or otherwise).

5. Organize your thinking.

RANK PRIORITIES, EXPLORE POSSIBILITIES

“What was I thinking?” Surely—after you’ve made a mistake—you’ve asked yourself that question. It pops into your mind when you realize that your decision seems to have set you back from what you would like to achieve. To avoid this lapse, get in touch with your feelings, values, and priorities. Think through multiple ways to reach your investment objectives.

Set Priorities

Know yourself. Know what you want. Know which goals and activities you would like to pursue. Rank your priorities in importance. Without ranked priorities to guide your decisions, either you drift without aim or your life reflects the chaos of a Marx brothers comedy. You perpetually scurry in multiple directions—but never end up where you want to be.

Expand Your Possibilities

You may know where you want to go but not how to get there. Often people fail to make the decisions that best fit their goals and priorities because they narrowly limit their menu of choices. As I previously pointed out, I met many renters at my “Stop Renting Now!” events who truly valued home ownership but blocked themselves from this goal. They had not learned their real-life possibilities.

The reason I can move quickly is that I’ve done the background work first, which no one really notices.

Likewise, I often discover motivated sellers who want to dump their troubled properties. Yet, myself and other investors buy these “losers” and turn them into moneymakers. That’s why savvy entrepreneurs persistently build their stock of ideas and knowledge. When you command a diverse and extensive repertoire of possibilities, you spot opportunity where others have suffered defeat. In later chapters, you’ll see scores of issues from which you can draw ideas to estimate and create value or, just as important, spot risk (danger). Naturally, you won’t apply each possibility in every situation. But your multitalented repertoire will definitely boost your power of possibility thinking: What can go right? What can go wrong? Great decisions anticipate both types of outcomes.

GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT

Quality decisions require accurate facts and data. Fortunately, such facts don’t come easy. Why fortunately? Because when other investors fall for slipshod data and firehouse chatter, your thoughtful approach will give you a competitive advantage to deal with reality, not illusion. Before you accept a so-called fact, you think, analyze, and verify.

When I started out, I spent a lot of time researching every detail pertinent to the deal. I still do the same today.

Say that someone warns you, “Vacancy rates in the area have jumped up to 9 percent. This isn’t a good time for you to invest in rental properties.” How should you interpret this information?

Facts versus Opinion

To get your facts straight, distinguish fact from opinion. Opinions often masquerade as truth. Realize the difference. Even if—in some sense—the 9 percent vacancy figure is correct, the fear-mongering that follows represents a view that may or may not prove reasonable. So, beware! Much of the information you seek will be delivered to you as part fact, part opinion. Distinguish between the two.

Think of a fact as a data point that you can reasonably incorporate into your analysis and decisions. For example, you can generally obtain reliable facts about interest rates, apartment rent levels, real estate listings, property sales prices, time on market, population growth, and the number of properties for sale that remain unsold (inventories).

What about vacancy rates? These figures more frequently reflect “fact” or fancy. By “fact,” I mean a figure that displays some truth but that is of limited use in its raw form. When reported by market research and commercial/investment brokerage firms, vacancy rates usually fall into this iffy category—informative but in need of a closer look.

Before you rely on such a number, answer questions such as:

• What geographic boundaries specifically delineate the area studied?

• How did the researchers gather their data? What sampling errors could distort the data?

• How does this 9 percent market vacancy rate differ among properties according to building size, unit mix, price ranges, amenities, features, condition, location, and so on? (Maybe one large 400-unit low-income HUD Section 8 property accounts for 40 percent of the vacancies in the total area under study. Maybe studio apartments enjoy waiting lists; three-bedroom, one-baths remain tough to fill.) When you speak of vacancy rates (as just one example), market segments and market niches matter greatly.

• Where are vacancy rates headed? Snapshots rarely provide a full, dynamic view. You want trend lines from the past and reasoned forecasts that look to the future.

Sometimes “facts” are better characterized as fancy. For any number of reasons, the people you talk with (or read) may not know what they are talking about. Obviously, we all inadvertently make mistakes. On other occasions, property sales agents give answers without facts so as not to appear ignorant. In some instances, people purposely steer you off track. Will an apartment manager truthfully disclose to a market researcher that her building’s rent roll turns over twice a year and that her building’s vacancies have climbed above 25 percent? I don’t think so.

Think, Analyze, Verify

Savvy entrepreneurs search beyond conventional wisdom, “facts,” opinions, and fanciful dodges or assertions. They know that quality facts provide the ingredients for quality decisions. As you move forward in real estate (and life), use multiple data points, multiple sources of information, and multiple valuation metrics (see Chapters 13, 14, and 15). Before you decide: Interpret, think, analyze, and verify. Avoid a rush to judgment. The world overflows with garbage in, garbage out (GIGO) decisions. But with facts, you can outsmart and outperform the crowd that uncritically accepts “facts,” fancy, or ill-formed, distorted, or biased opinions.

Napoleon said, “A leader may rightly face defeat but should never suffer loss from surprise.”

USE RULES OF THUMB CAUTIOUSLY

Recently, I bought a property from an out-of-town owner. This owner didn’t want to sell, nor had he placed his property on the market. Nevertheless, I persuaded him to consider my “generous” offer of $90 psf (dollars per square foot represents a rule-of-thumb value metric).

Given that this owner had bought this property years ago, my offer provided him a large gain. He responded to my offer with casual interest. Still, because he lived out of town and lacked up-to-date information on local property prices, he told me that before going further with discussions, he wanted to test my offer against the advice of a sales agent.

“No,” the sales agent reported, “$90 psf is too low. The going price is around $100 psf.”

The seller called back and told me he would sell at $100 psf. I objected, “That price is too high. The property needs a lot of work. You’re taking advantage of me because you know I want the property.”

Alas, my objections fell on deaf ears. I gave in. “Okay,” I responded, “against my better judgment, I guess I can go to $100 psf. You just got my top dollar.”

Loan Appraisal for This Property

“Holy cow!” the mortgage loan appraiser said to me as I showed him around the property. “Considering the low price you paid, I thought this place would be wrecked. I’m going to report a market value figure at the low end of the value range for this property, but that’s still 20 percent more than your contract price. How did you find such a steal?”

Errors of the Agent and Seller

When the sales agent gave the seller her rule-of-thumb valuation of $100 psf, she recited a “fact,” not a fact. True, on average, properties in the area had sold for the price she quoted. But the owner should not have relied on that rule-of-thumb figure for two reasons:

1. Out of Date: At that time, properties in that market were appreciating quickly. The rule-of-thumb figure of $100 psf reflected past closed sales, not pending contracts. More recently, current buyers had bid prices up another 10 to 15 percent. The agent lacked first-hand, up-to-the-minute knowledge of that specific neighborhood.

2. Unique Features: As a second factor, this subject property differed favorably from the average. Units displayed open floor plans, garden views, and bright/light interiors (because of skylights and many large windows). The units were also smaller than average. (All other things equal, and within the same neighborhood, smaller units tend to sell for higher price-per-square-foot figures than larger units.)

Go Beyond Rules of Thumb

In real estate (as with the stock market, too), you will run across many rules of thumb (discussed in later chapters). You will find measures (valuation metrics) such as gross rent multiplier, capitalization rate, price psf construction costs, energy costs, remodeling costs, maintenance expense ratios, rental rates, vacancy rates, and so on. Never accept any of these rules of thumb as fact.

Investigate further. Each market, each property, shows unique features and conditions. Before you apply any facts or rules of thumb, verify their relevance to your property or problem. (Of course, when you negotiate to buy or sell, you can rely on various rules of thumb that favor your position to persuade the other party that your offer is reasonable and justified.)

Question advice and recommendations (expert and otherwise).

Real estate authors and speakers often advise you to establish a team of individuals to whom you can turn for advice and recommendations. In our complex world, no one person can know everything. Good advice.

I go over every detail with my experts. They’re on my team, but I’m the General.

Yet, heed this warning: Never delegate critical decisions to your advisers—regardless of whether they’re trusted friends and family or world-class experts. Recall the out-of-town owner from whom I bought a property. He carelessly relied on his “expert” real estate agent. In doing so, he gave up $130,000 of potential gain.

The people you turn to for advice can fail you for a variety of reasons, some benign, some not so. Either way, your decision (and bank account) suffers. When dealing with advisers, guard against these five pitfalls:

1. Advice or approval?

2. Knowledge or ignorance?

3. Your preferences or theirs?

4. Conflict of interest?

5. Public soothsayers or media molls?

Advice or Approval?

Ask yourself, “Do I really want critical counsel?” We all know people who ask for advice but really want approval. In response, we approve. Why start an argument? The advisee then uses the approval to further justify what he wanted to do all along. Preconceived often means predecided.

To gain most from advice, insist on “no holds barred” counsel. Then question, listen, weigh, interpret, and apply as you deem wise. If you do not really want additional perspective, insight, or critique, don’t burden your advisers with pretense. Don’t seek advice for the same reason that a drunk seeks a lamppost—that is, for support, not illumination.

When undiluted support for your preconceived ideas is what you want, your friends, family, or consultants will probably oblige. But if that’s the case, recognize their advice for what it is—“go along to get along,” not disinterested critique.

Knowledge or Ignorance?

Do those you ask for advice possess the information, experience, and expertise necessary to advise you intelligently? Unless your friends or relatives have recently been shopping for property in the same city and neighborhood where you’ve been looking, they can’t tell you whether you’re getting a good buy. If your lawyer sister hasn’t seen a real estate contract since her Real Property 101 course in law school, chances are she’s not the one who should review your purchase agreement.

You may work with one of the best and brightest real estate agents in town, but if your property search takes you into neighborhoods or communities where your agent can’t find her way without studying a map, it’s time to bring in an agent who’s more familiar with the area. Whether friend, relative, lawyer, or sales agent, just because someone offers an opinion does not mean he or she actually knows enough about your problem and goals to provide the counsel you need.

Your Preferences or Theirs?

Do your advisers truly understand your needs and goals? Or do they merely advise you to judge the world as they see it? When you ask for advice, fully explain your needs, goals, or the most important things you’re trying to achieve. Likewise, when you offer counsel, you probably tend to shade recommendations toward your own biases. Indeed, most find it difficult to focus and accept the other person’s perspective.

If you ask your brother to tell you what he thinks of that foreclosed, fixer-upper, three-bedroom ranch in Windsor Heights, he could answer, “No way! I wouldn’t even think about buying that property.” Has your brother actually answered according to your needs? Or does he express some bias against foreclosures, fixer-uppers, or the Windsor Heights location? What if a real estate agent tells you Windsor Heights is not a good area? Should you accept that advice without further inquiry? Of course not. Ask why the agent holds that view. Maybe this agent doesn’t like Windsor Heights because he doesn’t think much of its schools.

What Does Your Target Market Want?

Yet, if your targeted households of renters or buyers do not consist of families with children, perhaps schools won’t matter much to them. Alternatively, maybe the neighborhood includes a nearby, reasonably priced private school. Or maybe the poor-school issue has so beaten down property prices in that district that the neighborhood now fits your investment strategy: Find relatively low-priced areas that offer strong promise for turnaround. As an ambitious neighborhood entrepreneur, you could spearhead a campaign for community revitalization and school improvement.

Sometimes advisers parrot approval of your ideas as a “go along to get along” tactic. More often, they paint their advice with colors that match their own picture of the world. Before you ask for advice or recommendations, explain the goals that you want your decision to accomplish.

Personal Reflection

Here’s another personal reflection on this point: Dozens of times each year, I meet people who take a minute or so to describe a property to me. Then they ask, “What do you think? Does it sound like a good investment?”

I like to help aspiring investors. But with such sketchy data, I cannot provide useful input about the merits of the property.

A quick recitation of facts (or maybe “facts”) hardly builds a solid base on which to hang my recommendation. Second, no property represents a “good” investment apart from the risks, rewards, and goals that remain personal to the investor. Rather than respond something like, “Yeah, seems like a good deal. I’d encourage you to go for it” (which I suspect most want me to say)—remember most people seek approval even though they feign to seek advice—I answer, “What are your goals, talents, inclinations, and plans? Have you performed your due diligence on the property’s features, condition, rent levels, and expenses? Do your answers to these questions blend together well?”

Do not shift your decisions to experts—me or anyone else. Even if I am convinced that your deal looks great, it still might not work as the right deal for you.

That’s why I qualify the advice that tells investors to “deal only with motivated sellers.” Regardless of its potential to yield profits, this technique does not match the strategies and goals that many people prefer to adopt. Many investors who try it abandon the approach in disappointment—and regrettably give up on real estate without exploring the other sources of profit property that investing offers.

Conflict of Interest?

Do your advisers’ interests conflict with your interests? When you rely on the advice of other people, detail how their advice may steer you into poor decisions. Some unethical real estate agents may try to talk you into a property or mortgage finance plan that doesn’t meet your needs just so they can gain a commission or kickback. Your friends or parents may talk against an outlying neighborhood because they’d rather you live closer to where they live. Your friends could advise you not to invest in real estate because they’re jealous, or maybe they think that you will drift apart as friends as you pursue new activities and responsibilities.

People often hide their own reasons for the advice they offer. Maybe they want to help you make a better decision. Maybe they are pursuing their own agenda. When someone says, “This is what you ought to do,” “Here’s what I recommend,” or something similar, first reflect and critique. Think through the knowledge (ignorance), perspectives, biases, and motives that support such advice.

Read Intelligently and Critically

Have you ever wondered why the personal finance magazines heavily promote the idea, “Over the long run, stocks have outperformed all other investments”? Because it’s true? Hardly. Look at the magazine’s advertisers—mutual funds, stockbrokers, and life insurers, all of whom sell Wall Street-based retirement, investment, and insurance plans.

In like manner, few local newspapers run articles that criticize real estate brokers (or automobile dealers). These types of businesses often provide more than 30 percent of newspaper advertising revenues.

Public Soothsayers or Media Molls?

Many schooled professionals believe themselves experts even though they have never demonstrated practical competence in the areas for which they routinely offer advice to the public. Indeed, the media promote this misplaced conceit.

I never accept anything I read or hear from brokers, sellers, buyers, tenants, experts, or television, generally. I want to dig in and verify the data, interpretations, and conclusions.

Economic Forecasts Rarely Forecast Correctly

Newspapers, magazines, and cable news broadcasts, for example, refer to their quoted economic forecasters as experts. But for the most part, the expertise (if any) of these commentators lies in their intricate knowledge of theoretical economic models. Few consistently forecast accurately. For instance, recall that back in 1989, Harvard economist Gregory Mankiw (later to become chairman of President George W. Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers), predicted that between 1989 and 2005, home prices would steadily fall by 40 percent. Rather than fall, most properties during that period doubled or tripled in value.

When Alan Greenspan appeared before Congress to testify about his competency to become chairman of the Federal Reserve, a senator asked, “Mr. Greenspan, we have reviewed your forecasts about the U.S. economy during the past decade. It seems that your predictions have erred far more often than they have proved correct.”

Greenspan responded, “Yes sir, my forecasts often have missed the mark. However, I can say that fortunately, other aspects of my career have achieved a higher rate of success.”

After 18 years as head of the Federal Reserve, Greenspan’s monetary and regulatory policies are seen by some as leading causes for the recent credit crises and foreclosure morass.

Financial Planners: Technocratic Expertise or Investment Savvy?

Although few financial planners display out-of-the-ordinary investment savvy, the press promotes them as financial experts and routinely quotes their investment recommendations and asset allocations. Such expertise remains questionable. In the late 1990s, I never read one quoted financial planner who advised investors to sell stocks and buy property—even though such advice would have proved enormously profitable both in terms of achieving property gains and avoiding stock market losses.

Quite the opposite. Then and now, most quoted financial planners claim, “If you own your own home, you’ve got all of the exposure to real estate you need. Over the long run, count on stocks to outperform all other asset classes.”

As to actual expertise, financial planners should know the technical rules of tax-deferred retirement planning, the investment styles of various mutual funds, and the source of low-cost annuities. They certainly know the conventional wisdom of investing and asset allocation as propagated by the theoretical finance professors and Wall Street purveyors of financial products. But few practicing financial planners (as opposed to media molls) even claim to know how to earn extraordinary returns on investments.

Moreover, the coursework leading to the certified financial planner (CFP) certificate devotes only three hours to the topic of real estate investing—the world’s largest asset class. Contrary to their media-promoted image, most financial planners do not excel as investors any more than most economists excel as forecasters.

Uncharitable Critique

In stating this less-than-charitable critique of economists, financial planners, and other experts who serve as media molls, I do not intend wholesale indictment. The majority of professionals who do not regularly step onto the media stage tend to define themselves as technocrats, not soothsayers. They competently deal with the technical and theoretical issues of economics, investment selection, and portfolio diversification. I challenge as suspect primarily those investment commentators (often economists and financial planners, but they are not the only members of this species) who publicly advise investors about swings in interest rates, the direction of housing prices, which stocks to pick, currency exchange rate movements, and other topics on which these so-called experts have shown no superior forecasting skills.

Experience proves that media “experts” err with their investment forecasts and opinions more often than they get things right. Never uncritically base your investment decisions on such advice—even if it represents a so-called expert consensus.

Advice and Counsel Redux

Early in my career, I erred egregiously because I wrongly assumed that my lawyer possessed expertise in areas (negotiation and litigation) when he clearly did not. Such early experiences (now witnessed multiple times over) have warned me not to abdicate my investment decisions to experts or advisers.

Learn from my experience. Never assume that your lawyer, CPA, real estate agent, mortgage broker, financial planner, medical doctor, dentist, or other reputed expert knows enough to advise you in all the areas for which you seek advice. Be wary of media stage hounds who show little or no record of success in the areas where they offer advice. Question, probe, and explore issues. Only when you are satisfied with an expert’s verified counsel should you incorporate that advice into your decision making.

In business and life, take off your blindfold.

Develop Your Ability to Question

I hear you object: “But, I don’t know anything about . . . How can I ask my experts pointed, intelligent questions? How can I explore issues when I don’t even know the relevant issues?”

You can develop this skill to question and probe through practice and education. How many laypeople know anything about cancer, heart problems, or other illnesses? Nevertheless, they are learning. Throughout the United States, an increasing number of patients no longer accept without question the diagnoses and prescriptions of the medical establishment.

Medical specialists told the famous writer and editor, Norman Cousins, that he needed to get his personal and business affairs in order because he had six months to live. Modern medicine offered no hope. Cousins refused to accept this death sentence. He studied his illness. He explored alternatives that lay outside the diagnostic and prescriptive models of medical conventions. He developed his own treatment plan. He lived another 10 years. (Cousins tells his story in his book Anatomy of an Illness.)

Sometimes experts know the answers we’re seeking. Sometimes they don’t. Thus, savvy entrepreneurs and investors (as do savvy medical patients) probe, question, and challenge their experts before they make a decision on the basis of such advice or recommendations.

Memorialize Advice in Writing

When you do choose to rely on professional advice, memorialize it in writing. During conversations, take detailed notes. Then follow up: Write the adviser (lawyer, accountant, appraiser, consultant, real estate agent, loan rep, contractor, and so on) a thank-you letter or e-mail. In that correspondence, express appreciation for his or her advice. Accent the adviser’s expertise, restate your understanding of the issues, and discuss what decision you plan to make that flows from the information the adviser provided.

This follow-up letter achieves three purposes: (1) It helps build your relationship (everyone likes a letter of appreciation); (2) it gives the adviser a chance to correct errors on his or her part or misinterpretations from your end; and (3) if the advice subsequently proves faulty, your written note confirms the substance of the advice. Such evidence promotes peaceful remedy or, if necessary, supports a claim through lawsuit or regulatory complaint.

When you memorialize advice in writing, you not only reduce the chance of error but also increase the chance of a satisfactory informal settlement or legal recovery. With written evidence, you reduce or eliminate “I said, you said” quarrels that will not bring back the opportunities you’ve missed or the damages you have suffered due to the sub-par counsel.

ORGANIZE YOUR THINKING

To make decisions intelligently, you must sort through facts about property features, zoning laws, building regulations, target markets, vacancy rates, new construction, contracts, promotion, financing, economic conditions, and thousands of other details. This task raises two questions: How can you possibly make sense out of all this information? How can you even know what information you need to collect?

If you can’t organize your thoughts quickly and come to a decision, that good deal you were looking at will have been snapped up by someone else.

In the pages that follow, I provide you answers to these two questions. Just as aircraft pilots rely on preflight checklists to prepare for takeoff, you need a takeoff plan to guide your real estate entrepreneuring. Instead of a checklist, however, we’ll call this takeoff guide, the DUST framework. (We explain what the acronym stands for in the next chapter.) This entrepreneurial flight plan spells out the details to consider when you decide whether to buy and, if so, how much to pay for properties (or other opportunities, such as options, leases, air rights, or mortgages). Just as important, DUST shows you how to create the right market strategy and tactics that will create value for your tenants, your buyers, and yourself.

Thus far, in Chapters 3 and 4, you have learned a good set of questions and guidelines to refine and advance the process you employ to make investment decisions. Next, you will discover how to ask questions, collect facts, identify possibilities, and reason through your decision process to estimate, forecast, and create property values. To achieve your goals, you need: (1) a systematic and thorough thinking process, and (2) an entrepreneurial vision that can recognize opportunities to create value for others and yourself.

Winners solve problems as a great way to prove themselves.

RANK PRIORITIES, EXPLORE POSSIBILITIES

Set Priorities

Expand Your Possibilities

GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT

Facts versus Opinion

Think, Analyze, Verify

USE RULES OF THUMB CAUTIOUSLY

Loan Appraisal for This Property

Errors of the Agent and Seller

Go Beyond Rules of Thumb

Advice or Approval?

Knowledge or Ignorance?

Beware: General Rule or Exception

Up to Date?

Age of Discontinuities

Your Preferences or Theirs?

What Does Your Target Market Want?

Personal Reflection

Conflict of Interest?

Read Intelligently and Critically

Public Soothsayers or Media Molls?

Economic Forecasts Rarely Forecast Correctly

Financial Planners: Technocratic Expertise or Investment Savvy?

Uncharitable Critique

Advice and Counsel Redux

Develop Your Ability to Question

Memorialize Advice in Writing

ORGANIZE YOUR THINKING