CENTERS FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION

CDC 24/7: Saving Lives, Protecting People™

Expected New Cancer Cases and Deaths in 2030

Report #A15928

CONFIDENTIAL FINDINGS

NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE

 

Between 2018 and 2030, we expect the number of new cancer cases in the United States to go up about 24% in men, more than 1,000,000 cases per year, and by about 21% in women, to more than 900,000 cases per year.

 

The kinds of cancer we expect to increase the most are:

melanoma (predominantly in white men and women)
prostate, kidney, liver and bladder cancers in men.
lung, breast, uterine and thyroid cancers in women.

 

Despite the reduction in rates of cigarette-linked cancers, such as lung cancer, we have seen steady increases in other cancer rates due to an aging population, a worsening obesity issue, and other as-of-yet-undetermined factors.

 

About two thirds of adults and one third of children are now categorized as either overweight or obese. These weight-related conditions increase risks of female breast, colorectal, esophageal, uterine, pancreas, and kidney cancers. We expect rates of these weight-related cancers (with the exception of breast and colorectal cancers) to increase another 30% to 40% by 2030.

 

New cases of liver cancer are expected to increase by more than 50%, as a result of an increase in hepatitis infections. Oral cancers in white men are expected to increase by about 30%, due to a higher incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections.

 

Other potential factors for increased cancer rates include shifting racial demographics and other environmental considerations.

 

RECOMMENDATION

It is fair to say that we are on the cusp of a cancer epidemic in our nation. More research funding is needed to focus on treatment and prevention, otherwise the cost of medical care for cancer patients may eventually exceed all other medical expenses combined.

 

Paula E. Gruyerre, M.D.

Director of CDC

U.S. Department of Health & Human Services