Although the road ahead is full of challenges, the government and end users are helping to drive OSS adoption and enhancement in China to be a significant component of the software industry. More importantly, China recognizes the value of helping drive OSS to build a healthy and sustainable software industry. It is our belief that what is needed is to prove OSS can be used to create several successful businesses in China, and to do so soon.
The SWOT analysis of OSS in China presented in this chapter pointed to various scenarios, mostly happening in parallel. First, strong government support will be a key force for continued experiments and deployment of OSS in government-related usages. There will be many attempts to replicate the success of OSS in server environments and in client environments. The challenge of trying to replace clients served by strong incumbents with OSS alternatives will remain—innovations to deliver unique end-user values are critical here.
Software piracy will likely continue, but the effort to contain it will strengthen; we expect the results and impact to be felt over time. China's strong manufacturing base in computing, communication, and entertainment systems as the world becomes more digital further present unparalleled opportunities for China to leverage OSS as a strong base for innovations and to bring more value to end users. With all this happening, the Linux/OSS talent pool will continue to grow, and many more developers will make attempts to leverage OSS to create meaningful business models.
One thing is certain. We expect many changes in the Chinese OSS landscape in the years ahead. China's policy choices with respect to OSS will have a profound impact on how China educates its talent pools, how it grows its software industry, and how it competes in the global arena. A SWOT analysis at the turn of the next decade—i.e., 2010—will most certainly have a very different outcome.