CHAPTER 11: SHOWDOWN

1 Policy Planning Staff, report, “Review of Current Trends: U.S. Foreign Policy,” PPS/23, February 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, I: 522–23.

2 Marshall (approved by Lovett) to Smith, urgent telegram, undated 1948, Folder: “Russia [7 of 8],” Box 15, Subject File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library.

3 “Molotov’s reception of Romanian Ambassador [Iorgu] Iordan, October 3, 1947, 3:00 PM,” AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 9, P. 2, file 23, p. 14.

4 The Essays on the History of Russian Foreign Intelligence, V: 551–56).

5 Washington Post (August 11, 1961); New York Times (August 10, 1961); Middleton (March 16, 1947); Beevor (October 23, 2010).

6 Smith to Marshall, telegram, marked with a circled “3,” May 10, 1948, Folder: “Russia [7 of 8],” Box 15, Subject File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library. For the Soviet version of the conversations, see Record of conversation with the U.S. Ambassador W. B. Smith on the positions of the US Government on international problems and foreign policy of the USA, May 4, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 1, file 4, pp. 1–12, and Record of conversation with the U.S. Ambassador W. B. Smith on the state of Soviet-American relations, May 9, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 1, file 4, pp. 19–29. Kuhn (May 12, 1948).

7 Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:140).

8 TASS statement, “On Soviet-American Relations,” May 11, 1948, Red Star 110, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 387, pp. 44–45.

9 Reston (May 12, 1948).

10 State Department Weekly Review, Europe and the British Commonwealth: Smith-Molotov Exchange, undated, Folder: “Foreign Relations—Russia (1948),” Box 64, Subject File, Elsey Papers, Truman Library: 3.

11 Douglas to Marshall, transcript of U.K. House of Commons questioning on the Smith-Molotov meeting, May 14, 1948, Folder: “Telegrams: London [England]: Winant,” Box 166, Foreign Affairs File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

12 Gromyko to Molotov, memorandum of meeting with Wallace (with Stalin’s notations), April 21, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 387, p. 6;– Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:85).

13 Gromyko to Molotov, memorandum of meeting with Wallace (with Stalin’s notations), April 21, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 387, pp. 5–10; This memo was only made publicly accessible in Moscow in January 2016.

14 These candidates included Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Harold Stassen, Joseph Martin, and Wallace’s soon-to-be running mate, Glen Taylor.

15 Gromyko to Molotov, memorandum of meeting with Wallace (with Stalin’s notations), April 21, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 387, pp. 5–10.

16 Gromyko to Molotov, memorandum of meeting with Wallace (with Stalin’s notations), April 21, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 387, pp. 5–10; Moscow (May 12, 1948); Washington Post (May 12, 1948).

17 National Council of American-Soviet Friendship (1948); Stalin’s response to Wallace’s letter (with handwritten notations in red pencil), April 27, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 387, pp. 13–21.

18 Durbrow to Marshall, May 18, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, IV: 870–71.

19 Gaddis (2011:311–14); Kennan I (1967:346–47); Kennan to Marshall, May 12, 1948, Folder: “USSR 1946–1950,” Box 23, PPS Records, RG 59, National Archives; Kennan to Smith, June 18, 1948, Folder 2, Box 140, Miscellaneous Correspondence, Correspondence, Kennan Papers, Mudd Library, Princeton University; Kennan to Lovett, June 9, 1948, Folder: “USSR 1946–1950,” Box 23, PPS Records, RG 59, National Archives.

20 Sedgwick (May 2, 1948); Thompson (2009:89).

21 Harrington (2012:181–82); Garvy (1966:9–74); Thieme (1999:576–77); Schwartz (1954:469); Zwass (Fall/Winter 1978–1979: 12, 18–19); Zwass (1975:159).

22 Steil (2013:273–74); Rees (1973:177, 189); Petrov (1967:122–23); Blum III (1967:180–81) Dietrich (2002); Harrington (2012:68–69).

23 “On June 19, 1948, Lucky Strikes reached an all-time high, $2,300 a carton at the official exchange rate.” Barnet (1985:40).

24 Frank Wisner to Lovett, March 10, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 879–82.

25 Phone cable from the chief commander of SVAG Marshal V. D. Sokolovsky and political adviser of SVAG V. S. Semenov to the Foreign Ministry of the USSR on the meeting of the Control Council, Berlin, March 20, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 43, file 583, pp. 1–2 (sent to Stalin, Molotov, Beria, Zhdanov, and others); Narinsky (1996:57–75).

26 Narinsky (1996:66); Narinsky (2011:166), citing the resolution of the Council of Ministers of the USSR, “On conducting monetary reform in the Soviet occupation zone of Germany,” May 18, 1948, Arkhiv Prezidenta Rossiiskoi Federatsii, Fond 3, op. 64, file 789, pp. 33–35. Italics added.

27 Washington Post (June 13, 1948); Warren (June 14, 1948).

28 Smith (1990:486–89); Clay to Draper, June 15, 1948, FMPC-175, in Smith II (1974:678).

29 Warren (June 17, 1948).

30 Feigel (2016:305–6, 319).

31 Editorial Note, “The Establishment of the Berlin Blockade,” in FRUS, 1948, II: 909.

32 Murphy to Marshall, June 19, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 910; Harrington (2012:71–72); Clay to Bradley, CC-4843, June 23, 1948, Folder: “AG 319.1 Transportation Situation Reports, vol. II, 1948,” Box 427, OMGUS AGO General Correspondence, RG 260, National Archives; Murphy to Marshall, June 21, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 911–12; Narinsky (1996:66).

33 Narinsky (1996:66); “The German question,” AVP RF, Fond 048/3, op. 11zh, P.70, file. 17, p. 454.

34 Smith (1990:492); Clay to Royall, CC-4880, June 25, 1948, in Smith II (1974:675–78).

35 Feigel (2016:301, 312); Sutherland and Canwell (2007:37); Narinsky (1996:66–67); Jean Ganeval to Bidault, June 24, 1948, Fonds 457, Carton AP-18, Private Archives of M. Georges Bidault, Archives Nationales; Bidault to Henri Bonnet, June 27, 1948, Fonds 457, Carton AP-18, Private Archives of M. Georges Bidault, Archives Nationales; M. Senin, “Memorandum on the Berlin question, 1950,” AVP RF, Fond 082, op. 37, P. 216, file 112, p. 21; Caffery to Marshall, June 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 916–17; Hetzel (Winter 2002:27); Buchheim (1999:94); Clay (1950:364); Narinsky (1996:61, 66); Laufer (1999:80–84); Middleton (June 23, 1948); Morrow (June 24, 1948).

36 Feigel (2016:319–20); James Riddleberger to Acheson, March 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 693; Smith (1990:529).

37 Recovery in the French zone, where decontrols were delayed, was slower (Giersch, Paqué, and Schmieding [1993:4–5]). Behrman (2007:201–2, 205–6); Smith (1990:483, 523); Clay to Byrnes, September 18, 1948, in Smith II (1974:858–60). Perhaps the best analysis of the currency reform, coauthored by a great economist who was also a Marshall Plan official, is Kindleberger and Ostrander (1998), in Folder: “ ‘The 1948 Monetary Reform in Germany’. . . ,” Box 9, Subject File, Kindleberger Papers, Truman Library.

38 Feigel (2016:316); Beevor and Cooper (1994 [2004]:325); Harrington (2012:73–75); Howley (1950:198, 203); Raymond (June 25, 1948); Morrow (June 25, 1948).

39 Declaration of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Poland, Romania and Hungary, 1948.

40 Gaddis (2011:328); Kennan to Frank Altschul, July 20, 1948, Folder 2, Box 140, Miscellaneous Correspondence, Correspondence File, Kennan Papers, Mudd Library, Princeton University.

41 Ignatiev’s full first name is unknown. See D. Ignatiev, “Background for the ‘Marshall Plan’ and the revival of the military-industrial potential of West Germany,” December 31, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 046, op. 8a, P. 74a, file 2, pp. 143–54.

42 Declaration of the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the USSR, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Poland, Romania and Hungary, 1948; Mastny (1996:48).

43 Mastny (1996:48); Buffet (1991:190).

44 Harrington (2012:99–100, 268–69).

45 Clay (1950:367).

46 White (1953:145).

47 Gaddis (2011:322); Policy Planning Staff, paper, “The Attitude of This Government Toward Events in Yugoslavia,” PPS/35, June 30, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, IV: 1079–81.

48 Harrington (2012:62); Eben A. Ayers, diary, May 17, 1948, Folder: “Jan. 1, 1948–May 31, 1948,” Box 20, Ayers Papers, Truman Library.

49 Harrington (2012:85–86, 100–101, 106, 110).

50 Douglas to Marshall, June 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 924; Harrington (2012:80–81, 95, 103, 112); Paniushkin to Marshall, July 14, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 960–64; Ray T. Maddocks to Bradley, June 28, 1948, Folder: “1948—Hot File—P&O 092 TS thru 381 TS,” Box 9, General Administrative File, RG 519, National Archives; Harris (April 1949:13–16).

51 Murphy to Marshall, June 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 919; Harrington (2012:86–88).

52 Clay to Royall and Jacob D. Beam, June 25, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 918; Murphy to Marshall, June 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 920.

53 Harrington (2012:59–60); Berkowitz, Bock, and Fuccillo (1977:45); Teleconference transcript attached to Mayo to Wedemeyer, April 2, 1948, Case 88/26, Sec. 1, P&O 381 TS, Box 102, P&O TS Decimal File, RG 319, National Archives; Douglas to Marshall, April 28, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 899–900; Smith (1990:496–97) fails to mention Clay’s comment that war appeared “inevitable,” but highlights elsewhere that Clay was not averse to embellishing communications to achieve desired effects at given points in time.

54 Raymond (June 25, 1948).

55 Harrington (2012:82, 103); T. S. Timberman to Ray T. Maddocks, June 28, 1948, Case 88/59, and T. S. Timberman to Schuyler, June 30, 1948, Case 88/43, both in Section 2, P&O 381 TS, Box 103, P&O TS Decimal File, RG 319, National Archives.

56 Murphy to Marshall, June 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 920; Jacob D. Beam, “Memorandum for the Record,” June 28, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 928.

57 Murphy (1964:317).

58 Douglas to Lovett, July 17, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 968–69.

59 “Letter of the Soviet Ambassador in the USA A. S. Paniushkin to the US Secretary of State G. K. Marshall on the violation of the agreed decisions on Germany and Berlin by the western nations, July 14, 1948,” AVP RF, Fond 192, op. 15a, P. 150, file 1, pp. 113–20; Leffler (1992:219); Cabinet Meeting Minutes, July 23, 1948, Folder: “July 1948,” Box 1, Notes on Cabinet Meetings II, Connelly Papers, Truman Library.

60 Clay to Draper, “Berlin Blockade,” CC-5222, July 19, 1948, in Smith II (1974:743–46).

61 Harrington (2012:127–28, 138–39); Clay to Bradley, CC-5118, July 10, 1947, in Smith II (1974:733–35); Gobarev (September 1997:15–17); LeMay (1965:411–12).

62 Harrington (2012:97).

63 Maclean was appointed co-director of a British-American-Canadian atomic power policy office in February 1947, thus greatly increasing his exposure to secret documentation on such issues. The Essays on the History of Russian Foreign Intelligence, V: 83; Harrington (2012:81, 119–22).

64 Harrington (2012:150); Truman, “The President’s News Conference of July 22, 1948,” in Public Papers of the Presidents: Harry Truman, 1948: 412; Truman (1974:17).

65 “The Positions of the Official Circles of the USA, England and France in the German Question at the London Conference,” June 6–June 29, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 39, file 525, pp. 4–7. It is unclear the date on which the report went to Molotov, who annotated it in blue pencil, but it may not have been until early July.

66 “Record of Teletype Conference Between the State Department and the Embassy in the United Kingdom,” July 22, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 979–80.

67 Smith to Marshall, July 31, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 996–98; Record of the conversation of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the USSR V. M. Molotov with the U.S. Ambassador in the USA W. B. Smith on the transportation communication between Berlin and the Western zones, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 64, file 910, pp. 39–42.

68 Cecil (1989:86–87); Kerr (1990).

69 Smith to Marshall, August 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 999–1006; Smith (1950:245); Harrington (2012:151–53); Narinsky (1996:68); Record of the conversation of I. V. Stalin with the U.S. Ambassador in the USSR W. B. Smith, representative of the UK Foreign Office W. Roberts, and the French Ambassador in the USSR Y. Chataigneau, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 382, pp. 58–79.

70 Narinsky (1996:57–75).

71 Smith (1990:515–16).

72 Harrington (2012:153–54); Clay, Royall, Bohlen, and others, teleconference, TT-9890, August 3, 1948, in Smith II (1974:749–51); Clay to Bradley and Royall, August 4, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1011–13.

73 Clay, Draper, and Lawrence Wilkinson, teleconference, TT-1010, August 7, 1948, in Smith II (1974:755–63).

74 Harrington (2012:154); Marshall to Smith, August 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1008–9.

75 Smith to Marshall, August 5, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1016–17; Smith to Marshall, August 6, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1018–21; Marshall to Smith, August 10, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1030; Molotov to Stalin, submitting a “detailed record” of his conversation with Smith, Chataigneau, and Roberts, the “draft of a joint comminuqué” prepared by the ambassadors, and a draft prepared at the Soviet Foreign Ministry, August 7, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 37, file 496, pp. 1–3.

76 Harrington (2012:155).

77 Murphy to Marshall, August 11, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1031; Harrington (2012:155–56); Smith to Marshall, August 9, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1024–27; Marshall to Smith, August 10, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1028–32; Clay to Draper, August 10, 1948, in Smith II (1974:764).

78 Harrington (2012:74, 158–59); Murphy to Marshall, August 13, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1038–40; Murphy to Marshall, August 27, 1948, 740.00119 Control (Germany)/8-2748, RG 59, National Archives; Clay to Bradley and Draper, CC-5632, August 21, 1948, in Smith II (1974:776); CIA 8-48, August 19, 1948, Folder: “NSC Meeting 18,” Box 178, National Security Council—Meetings File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

79 Smith to Marshall, August 12, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1035–38; Smith to Marshall, August 17, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1042–47; Smith to Marshall, August 17, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1047–49; Record of Molotov’s conversations with Smith, Chataigneau, and Roberts, August 12 and 16, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 06, op. 10, P. 37, file 494, pp. 1–28 and 29–61.

80 Harrington (2012:159); R. H. Hillenkoetter to Truman, August 6, 1948, Folder: “Memoranda, 1945–1948,” Box 213, Central Intelligence File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Memorandum for the President, August 20, 1948, Folder: “Memoranda for the President: Meeting Discussions: 1948,” Box 188, National Security Council—Meetings File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

81 Marshall to Smith, August 17, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1054.

82 For example, Bohlen, memorandum of conversation with Henri Bonnet, August 21, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1060.

83 Smith to Marshall, August 4, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1011; Feigel (2016:331).

84 Smith to Marshall, August 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1065–68; Marshall to Smith, August 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1077; Record of the conversation of I. V. Stalin with the US ambassador W. B. Smith, the French ambassador in the USSR Y. Chataigneau, and the representative of the UK Foreign Office W. Roberts on the issues of the Berlin crisis, August 23, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 382, pp. 58–79.

85 Smith to Marshall, August 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1067–68; Jacob D. Beam, memorandum, August 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1071–72; Marshall to Smith, August 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1072–74.

86 Smith to Marshall, August 25, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1078–79.

87 Smith to Marshall, August 30, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1093–96.

88 Djilas (1962:153).

89 Murphy to Marshall, August 31, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1099; Harrington (2012:164); Clay to Panuch, August 31, 1948, attached to Panuch to Clay, June 29, 1948, Folder: “Personal Correspondence,” Box 13, Military Government of Germany File, Panuch Papers, Truman Library.

90 Molotov’s cipher cable to Berlin (with instructions for the forthcoming negotiations of the four commanders in Berlin), August 31, 1948, in The USSR and the German Question 1941–1949, IV: 239 (sourced to AVP RF, Fond 059, op. 20, P. 4, file 29, p. 56). Fond 059 holds the cipher cables collection, which is now off-limits.

91 Sokolovsky subsequently offered to remove Berlin communications restrictions imposed after March 30, rather than June 18, but still insisted that agreements in 1945 limited corridor traffic to garrison supply—nothing more.

92 Murphy to Marshall, September 1, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1100–3; Bohlen, memorandum, “Brief for the President,” September 2, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1108–9; Clay to the Department of the Army, September 4, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1109–12; Lovett to Paniushkin, September 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1187–93; Harrington (2012:165–66); Murphy to Marshall, September 4, 1948, 740.00119 Control (Germany)/9-448, RG 59, National Archives; Clay-Draper correspondence in Smith II (1974:798–826).

93 Harrington (2012:166–67); Clay to Draper, September 3, 1948, in Smith II (1974:814–15); Clay, teleconference with Royall, Draper, and others, TT-1131, September 2, 1948, in Smith II (1974:802).

94 Murphy to Marshall, September 7, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1134; Feigel (2016:320).

95 Friedensburg was deputy mayor of the City Council until August 14, 1948, when he took over from Mayor Louise Schroeder owing to her illness. Ferdinand Friedensburg, memorandum of conversation with Major Otschkin, September 21, 1948, Bundesarchiv Koblenz N1114/34.

96 Feigel (2016:320–21); Harrington (2012:167–68); Murphy to Marshall, September 10, 1948, 862.00/9-1048, RG 59, National Archives; Louis Glaser, “Political Report No. 14,” September 11, 1948, Folder: “Political Reports 11–17,” Box 903, Public Safety Branch Records, RG 260, National Archives; Louis Glaser, report, September 10, 1948, Folder: “Memos and Reports, Col Glaser,” Box 71, Records of the Civil Administration and Political Affairs Branch, RG 260, National Archives.

97 Marshall to Smith, September 10, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1145–46.

98 Harrington (2012:172); Folder: “September, 1948,” Box 75, Daily Sheets File, President’s Appointment File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Forrestal, diary entry, “Meeting—the President,” September 13, 1948, in Millis (1951:487).

99 Smith to Marshall, September 14, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1157–60; The Soviet Ministry for Foreign Affairs to the Embassies of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France, September 18, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1162–65; Harrington (2012:173).

100 Jessup to Lovett, October 20, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1228–30; James Riddleberger to Lovett, October 21, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1230–31; Lovett to Caffery, October 22, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1231–33; Douglas to Lovett, October 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1234–36.

101 Foy D. Kohler to Acheson, February 2, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 667–68.

102 Harrington (2012:170, 175); Memo for the President, September 9, 1948, Folder: “Memoranda for the President: Meeting Discussions: 1948,” Box 188, National Security Council—Meetings File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Smith to Marshall, September 16, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1160–62.

103 Harrington (2012:141–42, 148); Tunner (1964:159–60); Anderson to Symington, August 4, 1948, Sec. 2, Folder: “OPD 381 Berlin (15 Jan 48),” Box 808, TS Decimal File, RG 341, National Archives.

104 “I asked [French] General Ganeval to advocate strongly with his colleagues that everything be undertaken in the near future for an average output of 6000t to arrive daily. This amount is in my opinion necessary for the maintenance of the supply if the Blockade drags on for a longer time.” Ferdinand Friedensburg, memorandum, September 13, 1948, Bundesarchiv Koblenz, N1114/34; Harrington (2012:178–79); Royall, Clay, and Draper, teleconference, TT-1271, September 19, 1948, in Smith II (1974:867, 877); T. S. Timberman to Albert C. Wedemeyer, August 23, 1948, Folder: “P&O 092 TS thru 381 TS 1948 Hot File,” Box 9, General Administrative File, RG 319, National Archive; Memo for the President, July 23, 1948, Folder: “Memoranda for the President: Meeting Discussions: 1948,” Box 188, National Security Council—Meetings File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Clay to Bradley and LeMay, CC-5895, September 10, 1948, in Smith II (1974:852).

105 Truman II (1956:213).

106 William L. Batt, Jr., to Clifford, memorandum, “Public Opinion on Our Conduct of Foreign Policy,” May 8, 1948, Folder: “William L. Batt, Jr., Director of Research, DNC—Misc. Correspondence [1948-49],” Box 21, Political File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library.

107 Eisenhower’s name came up as early as July. William L. Batt, Jr., to Clifford, memorandum, July 22, 1948, Folder: “William L. Batt, Jr., Director of Research, DNC—Misc. Correspondence [1948–49],” Box 21, Political File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library.

108 Draft of Truman address on the Vinson mission, October 4, 1948, Folder: “Russia [8 of 8],” Box 16, Subject File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library.

109 Minutes of a meeting of Marshall, Bevin, and Schuman, September 21, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1178.

110 Statement of the President, October 9, 1948, Folder: “OF 198—Berlin Blockade,” Box 830, Official File, White House Central Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Harrington (2012:190–96); Trohan (1975:239–40); Eben A. Ayers, diary, October 5 and 9, 1948, Folder: “June, 1948–December 31, 1948,” Box 20, Diary File, Ayers Papers, Truman Library; Pogue IV (1987:407); Bohlen (1973:269); McCullough (1992:686).

111 Beevor and Cooper (1994 [2004]:327); Foy D. Kohler to Marshall, October 14, 1948, 851.00B/10-1448, RG 59, National Archives.

112 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:462); Pruessen (1982:383–88).

113 Ambassador Douglas himself was discomforted, not knowing whether Marshall’s aim was seeking a solution or sanction for the use of force. See Jessup, memorandum of conversation, September 27, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1193.

114 Harrington (2012:180).

115 Policy Planning Staff, “Position of the United States with Respect to Germany Following the Breakdown of Moscow Discussions,” PPS/42, November 2, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1240–47.

116 Policy Planning Staff, “Résumé of World Situation,” PPS/13, November 6, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, I: 773.

117 Minutes of the 286th Policy Planning Staff Meeting, September 28, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1196.

118 Vyshinsky, speech to the UN General Assembly, September 25, 1948, printed in Vyshinsky (1948); New York Times (September 26, 1948), “Russian Spurs U.N.”

119 Kuznetsov to Vyshinsky, July 15, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 07, op. 21d, P. 53, file 21, p. 26; New York Times (October 3, 1948); New York Times (September 26, 1948), “Oil Company Denies Soviet Map Charge.”

120 Instructions to Vyshinsky regarding representation of the USSR at the UN Security Council in the matter of the Berlin issue, October 2–3, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 17, op. 166, file 797.

121 Harrington (2012:189); No. 113 (361st meeting, October 4, 1948) and No. 114 (362nd meeting, October 5, 1948) in UN Security Council (1948); McCullough (1992:685–86).

122 Vyshinsky to Molotov, phone cable, October 6, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, p. 98; Vyshinsky to Molotov, ciper cable, October 11, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, pp. 110–11; Molotov to Stalin, cipher cable, October 12, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, p. 112; Molotov to Vyshinsky, October 14, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109; Vyshinsky to Molotov, cipher cable, October 14, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, pp. 121–23; Molotov to Stalin, October 15, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, p. 124; Stalin to Moscow, CC VCP (b), October 15, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, p. 125; Molotov to Stalin, October 15, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, p. 130; Stalin to Moscow, October 15, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, p. 130; Molotov to CC VCP (b), October 15, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 558, op. 11, file 109, pp. 132–33; From the diary of Vyshinsky, October 21 and 24, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 082, op. 35, P. 165, file 32, pp. 29–35; Lovett to Caffery, October 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1210–11; Molotov to Foy D. Kohler, October 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1204–5; Bohlen, memorandum of conversation, October 4, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1212; Bohlen to Marshall, October 8, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1215; From the diary of Yu. Dashkevich, November 9, 1948, AVP RF, Fond 082, op. 35, P. 165, file 32, p. 44.

123 Interview with Acheson, Wire II, July 9, 1953, Folder: “July 8–9, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 18.

124 From the diary of G. M. Ratiani, recording conversation with U.N. press department deputy Auden, AVP RF, Fond 082, op. 35, P. 165, file 32, p. 46.

125 Jessup to Lovett, October 16, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1227–28.

126 Jessup to Lovett, November 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1247.

127 Caffery to Lovett, October 27, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1238; Lovett to Murphy, October 30, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1239; Marshall to Clay, November 18, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1254–55; Lovett to Caffery, November 19, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1255–56; Dulles to Marshall, November 23, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1257–60; Murphy to Marshall, November 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1260–62; Murphy to Marshall, November 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1268–70; Murphy to Marshall, November 27, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1270–72; Marshall to Jessup and Bohlen, November 28, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1272–74.

CHAPTER 12: DIVISION

1 McCullough (1992:713–14, 717).

2 Haas (2016:250–51).

3 Acheson (1969:249).

4 “U.S. Zone Germans View the Airlift,” Report No. 144, October 26, 1948, and “How Berliners Expect and Want the Crisis Settled: With Their Recommendations,” Report No. 147, November 17, 1948, in Merritt and Merritt (1970:263–64, 267–68); Lovett to the Embassy in the United Kingdom, December 18, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1281; Harrington (2012:226–27, 244, 249).

5 Smith (1990:524); Howley (1950:230); Haas (2016:166).

6 Feigel (2016:322–24); Iber (August 24, 2015).

7 “Berlin Attitudes on the Air Lift: Further Trends,” Report No. 141, October 4, 1948, printed in Merritt and Merritt (1970:261); Raymond (May 29, 1949); Middleton (April 7, 1949).

8 Harrington (2012:202).

9 Decision of the Politburo of the CC VCP (b), Politburo Protocol 66/35, “The question of the SVAG,” November 12, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 17, op. 166, file 798, pp. 10–14.

10 Murphy to Marshall (with footnote from Bohlen), November 26, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1268–70; Marshall to Embassy in France, November 28, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1272–74; Harrington (2012:202–3); Memo for the President, November 26, 1948, Folder: “Memoranda for the President: Meeting Discussions: 1948,” Box 188, National Security Council—Meetings File, Subject File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

11 Payne (1949:3).

12 Gallup I (1972:770–71).

13 McCullough (1992:729–31). The full text of the speech is here: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=13282.

14 Whitman (October 9, 1974).

15 Hoffman, interview with Philip C. Brooks, October 25, 1964, Oral History Interviews, Truman Library: 9–11; Callender (November 3, 1949); Van der Beugel (1966:187); Hogan (1987:302); New York Times (February 22, 1950; Beisner (2006:163); Behrman (2007:227, 265–66, 279).

16 Judt (2005:171).

17 Marer (1974:135–63)—see in particular p. 147; Marer (1984:156); Mastny (1996:57–58). On the operation of Comecon broadly, see also Bideleux and Jeffries (1998:534–44).

18 Ford (July 19, 1948).

19 Murphy to Marshall, February 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 676; Lovett to the Embassy in the United Kingdom, January 12, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 652–55.

20 Lovett to the Embassy in France, December 7, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 1276–78; Lovett to the Embassy in the United Kingdom, January 12, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 652–55; Murphy to Julius C. Holmes, January 13, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 656–58; Clay to the Department of the Army, January 15, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 659–60.

21 Reuter draft letter to Clay, January 20, 1949, Bundesarchiv Koblenz Z14/22. (It is clear from a nearly identical English-language American aide-memoire that follows in the archive that the letter was sent.)

22 Douglas to Acheson, February 9, 1949, and Editorial Note, both in FRUS, 1949, III: 671.

23 Julius C. Holmes to Lovett, January 12, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 655; Douglas to Acheson, February 9, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 671; Douglas to Acheson, February 14, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 672; Harrington (2012:208).

24 Murphy to Acheson, February 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 676; Caffery to Acheson, February 19, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 678.

25 Douglas to Acheson, February 14, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 673.

26 This conversation, between Wrong and Bohlen, took place on January 13, 1949. Cited in Douglas to Acheson, February 22, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 683–85.

27 Beisner (2006:155).

28 Editorial Note in FRUS, 1949, III: 692; Harrington (2012:209); Jessup to Jacob D. Beam, March 14, 1949, 740.00119 Control (Germany)/3-1449, RG 59, National Archives. Department of State Bulletin, 1949, XX: 377–79.

29 Backer (1983:268).

30 Stivers (Fall 1997:590–91).

31 Ferdinand Friedensburg, memorandum, “Attlee Visit in Berlin,” March 5, 1949, Bundesarchiv Koblenz N1114/34.

32 West Berlin would not become part of the Federal Republic until reunification in 1990. Ferdinand Friedensburg, memorandum, “Attlee Visit in Berlin,” March 5, 1949, Bundesarchiv Koblenz N1114/34; Murphy to Acheson, January 26, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 188–90; Murphy to Acheson, February 4, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 191; Acheson to Murphy, February 7, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 192; James Riddleberger to Acheson, February 9, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 193–94; Editorial Note in FRUS, 1949, III: 194; Murphy to Charles E. Saltzman, February 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 200; James Riddleberger to Murphy, March 3, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 216; “Summary Record of a Meeting of United States Ambassadors at Paris,” October 22, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 288–89.

33 Harrington (2012:269).

34 The query came from American journalist Joseph Kingsbury-Smith.

35 Harrington (2012:264); Foy D. Kohler to Acheson, January 31, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, V: 562–63.

36 Italics added. Harrington (2012:265). German People’s Council statement is printed in Carlyle (1952:378–80).

37 Foy D. Kohler to Acheson, February 2, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 667–68.

38 Acheson to Douglas, February 25, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 688.

39 Acheson (1969:269).

40 Interview with Acheson, Wire II, July 9, 1953, Folder: “July 8–9, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 9; Jessup, memorandum of conversation, February 15, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 694–95.

41 Harrington (2012:269).

42 Central Intelligence Agency, “The Succession of Power in the USSR,” January 13, 1948, Folder: “O.R.E. [Office of Reports and Estimates]: 1948: 6–15,” Box 216, Central Intelligence Reports File, Intelligence File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library; Grob-Fitzgibbon (2016:96).

43 New York Times (March 20, 1982); Harrington (2012:270, 273).

44 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, March 15, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 695–98.

45 See, for example, Instructions for the Soviet financial expert regarding the negotiations in Paris on the Berlin question, Protocol 66/153, December 7, 1948, RGASPI, Fond 17, op. 166, file 798.

46 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, March 21, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 700–702.

47 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, March 21, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 700–704; “Summary of the Daily Meeting with the Secretary [of State],” March 22, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 706–7; Caffery to Acheson, May 12, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 752–54; “Record of Teletype Conference Between the Department of the Army and the Office of the United States Military Governor for Germany,” May 13, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 756–57; Acheson to James Riddleberger, May 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 775–76.

48 Acheson, memorandum of conversation, April 1, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 709–11; Douglas to Acheson, April 25, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 731.

49 Attlee to Truman, April 3, 1949, quoted in “Exchange of Letters Between the President and Prime Minister Attlee on the Anniversary of the Signing of the Foreign Assistance Act,” April 7, 1949, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Harry Truman, 1949; Behrman (2007:248); Time (April 11, 1949); Belair (April 15, 1949).

50 Huempfer (2016).

51 Behrman (2007:234); Harriman, statement before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, February 8, 1949, in Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (1949:108).

52 Behrman (2007:238–39); ECA (1949:68–71), Fifth Report to Congress.

53 Price (1955:245–46).

54 Charles W. Thayer to George V. Allen, Report, undated [1949], Folder: “European Trip, December 1948–January 1949, report to George V. Allen,” Box 11, Subject File, Thayer Papers, Truman Library.

55 Behrman (2007:240–42).

56 Gaddis (2011:317–19); Kennan to Lovett, June 30, 1948, in FRUS, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment: 1945–1950: 716; Frank Wisner, memorandum of meeting with Hillenkoetter and Kennan, August 6, 1948, in FRUS, Emergence of the Intelligence Establishment: 1945–1950: 720; Kennan to Lovett, Folder: “Chronological July–December,” Box 33, PPS Records, RG 59, National Archives.

57 Steel (August 13, 1992).

58 Truman statement to National Security Council and the Joint Chiefs, Spring 1949, Box 150, President’s Security File, Truman Papers.

59 Kinnard (1980:38); Ritchie (2011:188).

60 McCullough (1992:741–42).

61 Haas (2016:257–58); Vandenberg (1952:475–80).

62 “Memorandum of the Fourteenth Meeting of the Working Group Participating in the Washington Exploratory Talks on Security, September 7, 1948,” in FRUS, 1948, III: 234–35; Memorandum by the Participants in the Washington Security Talks (July 6 to September 9, 1948), “Washington Exploratory Conversations on Security,” September 9, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 237–45; Lovett to Harriman, December 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 304; Acheson, “Memorandum of Discussion with the President,” March 2, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, IV: 142.

63 Lovett to Harriman, December 3, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 303, 305.

64 Truman, “Inaugural Address,” January 20, 1949, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Harry Truman, 1949. Available here: http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=13282.

65 Article 5: “The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area. Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”

66 Haas (2016:260–64).

67 Frank McNaughton to Don Bermingham, memorandum, Folder: “April 1949,” Box 17, McNaughton Reports File, McNaughton Papers, Truman Library: 3; Haas (2016:259–69).

68 Robert T. Elson to Frank McNaughton, teletype with excerpts of Lovett testimony, Folder: “May 1–15, 1949,” Box 17, McNaughton Reports File, McNaughton Papers, Truman Library: 2.

69 “Summary of the Daily Meeting with the Secretary [of State],” March 22, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 706–7.

70 Frank McNaughton to Don Bermingham, memorandum, Folder: “April 1949,” Box 17, McNaughton Reports File, McNaughton Papers, Truman Library: 10.

71 Beisner (2006:129–30).

72 McCullough (1992:735).

73 Policy Planning Staff, “Considerations Affecting the Conclusion of a North Atlantic Security Pact,” PPS/43, November 23, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 283–85.

74 “The North Atlantic Pact: Collective Defense and the Preservation of Peace, Security and Freedom in the North Atlantic Community,” statement by the State Department, March 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, IV: 240.

75 David K. E. Bruce to Webb, September 22, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 452.

76 West Germany would not join NATO until 1955, but the Article 6 provision encompassing attacks against occupation forces covered its territory.

77 Halle (1967:185); Judt (2005:150).

78 Halle (1967:173–74).

79 Simms (2013:410); Leffler (1992:322); “Minutes of the PPS,” October 18, 1949, Box 32, PPS Records, RG 59, National Archives.

80 Clay to Voorhees, FMPC 680, March 29, 1949, in Smith II (1974:1063). See also Smith (1990:534–35).

81 “Memorandum of Conversation Prepared in the Office of the United States High Commissioner for Germany,” November 13, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 309.

82 The Dawes Plan of 1924 allowed Germany to make reparations payments by borrowing money from American banks. The Locarno Treaties of 1925 involved Germany officially recognizing its new western borders.

83 Reynolds (2006:46). On the founding of the European Coal and Steel Community by France, Germany, Italy, and the three Benelux countries, see Centre Virtuel de la Connaissance sur l’Europe (CVCE): http://www.cvce.eu/en/unit-content/-/unit/5cc6b004-33b7-4e44-b6db-f5f9e6c01023/678ed16c-b497-41e0-a1b6-d8cb0594f2ef.

84 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 5, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 712–15; Jessup, statement, April 5, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 716; Acheson, memorandum of conversation, April 1, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 709–12.

85 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 724–28; Douglas to Acheson, April 25, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 730–31.

86 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 11, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 717–20; Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 13, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 722–24.

87 Acheson, memorandum of conversation, April 1, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 710; Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 724–28.

88 Editorial Note in FRUS, 1949, III: 731.

89 George V. Allen to Charles Ross, April 27, 1949, Folder: “State Department, Correspondence, 1948-49 [6 of 6],” Box 40, Correspondence File, State Department File, Confidential File, White House Central Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

90 Harrington (2012:272–73); Carlyle (1952:153–54); Bohlen to George V. Allen, April 19, 1949, Folder: “Correspondence A–K,” Box 1, Bohlen Papers, RG 59, National Archives; Jessup to Acheson, April 12, 1949, Folder: “Jessup-Malik Conversations . . . ,” Box 304, RG 43, National Archives; State Department, “Statement on the Malik-Jessup Talks,” April 26, 1949, in Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (1959:57–59); Jessup (September 1972:392).

91 Specifically, those restrictions imposed since March 1, 1948.

92 Paris was designated the host city for the conference in accordance with France’s Council on Foreign Ministers rotation rights.

93 Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 27, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 732–35; Jessup, statement, April 27, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 735–37; Jessup, memorandum of conversation, April 29, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 737–44; Acheson to the Embassy in the United Kingdom, April 30, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 744–46; Acheson, memorandum of conversation, May 2, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 748–49; Bevin to Acheson, undated [1949], FRUS, 1949, III: 749–50; Editorial Note in FRUS, 1949, III: 750–51.

94 Sutherland and Canwell (2007:142).

95 Harrington (2012:256–59); Tunner (1964:219–22).

96 Acheson press and radio news conference notes and statements, May 11, 1949, Folder: “January–June 1949,” Box 72, Press Conferences File, Secretary of State File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library; Harrington (2012:274).

97 With the Western Allies determined to build up precautionary stocks in Berlin, the airlift continued on until September. Daily tonnage in May and June surpassed 8,000; a daily target of 8,944 was set for July 1949 to June 1950, evidence of plans to sustain the airlift indefinitely. Harrington (2012:255, 257–58, 274); James Riddleberger to Acheson, May 12, 1949, 740.00119 Control (Germany)/5-1249, RG 59, National Archives.

98 New York Times (May 12, 1949).

99 Acheson press and radio news conference notes and statements, May 11, 1949, Folder: “January–June 1949,” Box 72, Press Conferences File, Secretary of State File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library.

100 Gaddis (2011:326); Kennan, memorandum, “United States Objectives with Respect to Russia,” PPS/38, August 18, 1948, in PPS Papers, 1947–1949, II: 372–411; Department of State Bulletin, 1949, XX: 662.

101 Kennan to Webb, May 26, 1949, Box 163, Foreign Affairs File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers.

102 Clay to Tracy Voorhees, CC-8467, May 1, 1949, in Smith II (1974:1137–38); James Riddleberger to Acheson, May 16, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 772–73; Acheson to James Riddleberger, May 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 773–74; Acheson to James Riddleberger, May 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 775–76; George P. Hays to the Department of the Army, May 18, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 776–79; James Riddleberger to Acheson, May 19, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 779–87; McLaughlin (October 1, 1949).

103 Kennan to Marshall and Lovett, memorandum, “Policy Questions Concerning a Possible German Settlement,” August 12, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, II: 1287–97; Kennan, National War College lecture, “Contemporary Problems of Foreign Policy,” September 17, 1948, Folder 12, Box 299, Unpublished Works, Writings, Kennan Papers, Mudd Library, Princeton University.

104 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:290, 471); Kennan I (1967:257).

105 Smith (1990:527); Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:472).

106 James Riddleberger to Acheson, March 26, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 231.

107 Beisner (2006:138).

108 Murphy, memorandum of conversation, March 9, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 102–5.

109 Smith (1990:538).

110 Smith (1990:536).

111 Louis Johnson to Acheson, May 14, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 875–76; Bohlen (1973:285).

112 Reston (May 12, 1949); David K. E. Bruce to Acheson, May 14, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 878.

113 Bohlen (1973:285–86).

114 Acheson, off-the-record press conference, Folder: “January–June 1949,” Box 72, Press Conferences File, Secretary of State File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 2–7.

115 Bevin to Marshall, May 10, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 870–72; Kennan to Acheson, May 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 888–90.

116 Bohlen (1973:285–86); Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:472).

117 See, for example, Gaddis (2011:336).

118 Gaddis (2011:369–70).

119 Beisner (2006:117).

120 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:474); Kennan I (1967:427).

121 New York Times (December 11, 1949).

122 Article 23 provided for extension to the eastern provinces upon reunification; this would take on great political significance in 1990.

123 Bavaria did not ratify it but allowed it to come into force.

124 Adenauer, Parliamentary Council Closing Speech, May 20, 1949, Bundesarchiv Koblenz Z12/33.

125 Office of German and Austrian Affairs, paper, “U.S. Position at the Council of Foreign Ministers,” May 15, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 898–99; Division of Research for Europe, paper, “The Soviet Approach at the Meeting of the C.F.M.,” May 17, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 909–13.

126 Kennan to Douglas, May 11, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 872–73.

127 The United States Delegation at the Council of Foreign Ministers to Truman and Webb, May 24, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 917; Interview with Acheson, Wire III, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 7–8 (italics added); The United States Delegation at the Council of Foreign Ministers to Truman and Webb, May 26, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 923–24; Acheson, memorandum on CFM, undated [1949], Folder: “Notes for Meetings,” Box 78, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 6.

128 Acheson, off-the-record press conference, Folder: “January–June 1949,” Box 72, Press Conferences File, Secretary of State File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 2–5. See also interview with Acheson, Reel 2, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 31.

129 Interview with Acheson, Wire III, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 5–6; Acheson, memorandum on CFM, undated [1949], Folder: “Notes for Meetings,” Box 78, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library.

130 The United States Delegation at the Council of Foreign Ministers to Truman and Webb, May 28, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 928.

131 Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:144).

132 Nitze (1989:72).

133 Interview with Acheson, Wire III, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 8; The United States Delegation at the Council of Foreign Ministers to Webb, May 30, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 929–30; “United States Delegation Minutes of the 12th Meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers, Paris, June 4, 1949,” in FRUS, 1949, III: 954.

134 Interview with Acheson, Wire III, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 8.

135 Acheson, memorandum of conversation, May 30, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 935–36.

136 “United States Delegation Minutes of the First Part of the 20th Meeting of the Council of Foreign Ministers, Paris, June 14, 1949,” in FRUS, 1949, III: 997–99.

137 State Department: https://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/lw/107185.htm.

138 Status of the CFM, June 7, 1949, Folder: “1949: Paris Conference [May–June],” Box 142, Conferences File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

139 Bohlen, memorandum of conversation, June 6, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 960–62; Status of the CFM, June 7, 1949, Folder: “1949: Paris Conference [May–June],” Box 142, Conferences File, President’s Secretary’s Files, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

140 George P. Hays to Joseph O’Hare, May 31, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 803–4.

141 George P. Hays to Joseph O’Hare, June 8, 9194, in FRUS, 1949, III: 807.

142 Murphy, memorandum, “Comments on JCS Analysis,” June 1, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 825–26.

143 Acheson to Webb, June 5, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 826–27.

144 Webb, memorandum, “Meeting with the President, June 7, 1949,” in FRUS, 1949, III: 830.

145 “Communiqué of the Sixth Session of the Council of Foreign Ministers,” June 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 1062–65; Interview with Acheson, Wire IV, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 3–1; Acheson to Douglas, May 11, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 873.

146 Acheson, memorandum of conversation, June 11, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 980.

147 Acheson to Webb, June 14, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 995.

148 Harrington (2012:294).

149 See, for example, Kempe (2011).

150 Interview with Acheson, Wire V, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 1.

151 Interview with Acheson, Wire IV, July 16, 1953, Folder: “July 15–16, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 11–12. I corrected Acheson’s recollection of the verse he sang and guessed the corresponding one in Bevin’s tune; I changed “elevator” to “lift” in Bevin’s part of the dialogue.

152 Interview with Acheson, Wire V, July 9, 1953, Folder: “July 8–9, 1953,” Box 79, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 1–3; Bohlen (1973:286); CFM memorandum, undated, Folder: “Notes for Meetings,” Box 78, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library; The United States Delegation to the Council of Foreign Ministers to Webb, June 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 1038–39; Acheson, memorandum on CFM, undated [1949], Folder: “Notes for Meetings,” Box 78, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 14.

153 Acheson to Webb, June 14, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 995; Acheson, memorandum on CFM, undated [1949], Folder: “Notes for Meetings,” Box 78, Princeton Seminars File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library: 15. See Beisner (2006:110–11) on Acheson’s leadership style.

154 Ivan H. Peterman, Philadelphia Inquirer, May 5, 1949, quoted in Department of the Army to Office of Military Government for Germany, May 6, 1949, Folder: “Annexes,” Box 10, Military Government of Germany File, Panuch Papers, Truman Library; New York Times (May 5, 1949); Smith (1990:525, 686).

155 Behrman (2007:247, 252); Presidential Address to Be Given in Honor of George C. Marshall by Chiefs of Mission of the Marshall Plan Countries, at the Carlton Hotel, Washington, June 5, 1949, Folder: “1949, June 6, Dinner for George C. Marshall,” Box 39, Presidential Speech File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library; Vandenberg (1952:489); Truman, “Address at a Dinner in Honor of George C. Marshall,” June 5, 1949, in Public Papers of the Presidents: Harry Truman, 1949; New York Times (June 6, 1949).

156 The Nobel Prize presentation speech is here: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1953/press.html (Hambro, “Presentation Speech”). Marshall’s acceptance speech is here: http://www.nobelprize.org/nobel_prizes/peace/laureates/1953/marshall-lecture.html (“Nobel Lecture: Essentials to Peace”).

157 Bark and Gress (1989:244); Editorial Note in FRUS, 1949, III: 275.

158 Adenauer (1965:183–84); Schulze (1998:301). The American high commissioner was John J. McCloy; the British high commissioner was former military governor Sir Brian Robertson.

159 Bark and Gress (1989:223).

160 McCloy to Acheson, November 25, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 353.

161 “Memorandum of Conversation Prepared in the Office of the United States High Commissioner for Germany,” November 13, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 313.

162 Alan G. Kirk to Webb, October 1, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 276.

163 Reedy (August 27, 1950).

164 Editorial Note in FRUS, 1949, III: 531–32; Walworth Barbour to Acheson, October 13, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 534; Walworth Barbour to Acheson, October 15, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 535–36; Dennis (2000:47, 53).

165 Orwell (October 19, 1945).

CHAPTER 13: SUCCESS?

1 Pechnatov and Edmondson (2001:88).

2 Golombek (1977 [1997]:304); Soltis (1984 [2002]:95–96); Shenk (2006:49, 170).

3 Soltis (1984 [2002]:78, 159, 161, 172, 189).

4 Kennan, National War College lecture, “Soviet Diplomacy,” October 6, 1947, Folder 41, Box 298, Unpublished Works, Writings, Kennan Papers, Mudd Library, Princeton University.

5 During chess games with Lady Howe in London in 1774, Franklin negotiated to arrest the slide to war between Britain and the American colonies. Shenk (2006:89, 93–94); Franklin (December 1786).

6 Stimson and McCloy agreed with Kennan that the United States and the Soviet Union should have their respective “orbits,” but for the opposite reason: they believed it would facilitate genuine cooperation. Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:239, 264, 275); Harriman to Cordell Hull, September 20, 1944, in FRUS: Diplomatic Papers, 1944, IV: 993.

7 Isaacson and Thomas (1986 [2012]:246); Kennan to Bohlen, February 1945, Folder: “Kennan, George F., letters. 1945,” Box 27, Research Material, Witness to History, Books, Writings, Speeches and Writings File, Bohlen Papers, Library of Congress.

8 Burnham (1990:83); Washington to Foreign Office, telegram, June 3, 1947, T236/782, Treasury Papers, UKNA.

9 Eurostat (2011:1).

10 Mutual Security Agency (1952:24), Supplement; Brown and Opie (1953:249).

11 Recovery was particularly strong in countries that were not primary theaters in the war (such as the U.K. and much of Scandinavia).

12 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:16–19).

13 Transfers under the Mutual Security Agency—which extended military, economic, and technical assistance through August 1, 1953—boosted the Marshall aid total further. By the end of 1951, U.S. military support funds for western Europe amounted to nearly $5 billion annually—or $46 billion today. See Price (1955:162).

14 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992). The authors look at growth out to 1954 to account for lagged effects.

15 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:33–34, 65–69). Reymen (2004) challenges Eichengreen and Uzan’s numbers and inferences, but does find broad and significant Marshall effects operating other than through investment, the current account, or government spending.

16 “The decision was made to make our main effort in the ERP one of meeting dollar deficits.” ECA Industry Division official Sol Ozer, interview with Roy Foulke, May 12, 1953, Folder: “January–June 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library.

17 See, for example, Chenery and Bruno (March 1962), Bacha (April 1990), and McKinnon (June 1964) on mechanisms by which foreign aid can, in principle, increase growth by alleviating fiscal constraints.

18 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:22–26).

19 It can be argued, however, as I explain further on, that the British Labour government would have had a more difficult time financing its nationalization and welfare state agenda without Marshall aid.

20 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:31–32, 65).

21 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:26–31); DeLong and Eichengreen (November 1991).

22 Kindleberger (1984:10–11).

23 See, for example, Berger and Ritschl (1995).

24 The literature offers other explanations, which, in Eichengreen and Uzan’s words, may be “of a subtler nature” (April 1992:49–50). One is that Marshall aid moderated conflictual labor relations and paved the path for the famed European “social contract.” (See also Maier [Autumn 1977]; Hogan [1987]; and DeLong and Eichengreen [November 1991].) Since this corporatist model is clearly very different from the American, the connection may be more tenuous than subtle.

25 Kennan to Acheson, May 23, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 224.

26 “Statement of Secretary Acheson before Senate Foreign Relations Committee concerning ERP,” February 8, 1949, Folder: “July–December 1951,” Box 73, Press Conferences File, Secretary of State File, Acheson Papers, Truman Library.

27 Reichlin (1995) documents the different ways in which Marshall countries chose to address stabilization challenges. Germany, for example, tackled inflation much more quickly and aggressively than France. Milward (2004) and Esposito (1994) offer more critical takes on the degree to which the United States was able to use counterpart funds to promote financial stabilization. They argue that U.S. influence was highly constrained by the need to keep non-Communists in power in France and Italy.

28 Milward (2004:62); Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:37).

29 Policy Planning Staff, report, “Review of Current Trends: U.S. Foreign Policy,” PPS/23, February 24, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, I: 512.

30 Robert Oshins, interview by Harry B. Price, May 4, 1953, Folder: “January–June, 1953,” Box 1, Oral History Interview File, Price Papers, Truman Library.

31 Behrman (2007:232); Hoffman (April 21, 1949).

32 Behrman (2007:199, 209, 249).

33 Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:42).

34 Former State Department official Lincoln Gordon (1984:55) recalled Harvard economist Seymour Harris discussing this.

35 ECA (1948–1951), Reports to Congress, June 1948–June 1951; Mutual Security Agency (1951); Mitchell (2007), Europe; Crafts (1995:261–62); Burnham (1990:106–7).

36 Minford (1993:120). Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992:34) estimate additional growth of about 1 percentage point for the U.K. in the first year of the Plan. It was two to seven times this for Austria, Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands.

37 Hooker, memorandum, September 20, 1946, 711.61/9-2046, RG 59, National Archives.

38 State Department, policy statement, “Great Britain,” June 11, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 1092.

39 Casella and Eichengreen’s (1993) paper gives the Marshall Plan considerable credit for halting inflation in Italy, but it was published a year before the book-length study of Esposito (1994), which demonstrates convincingly that this priority was homegrown.

40 In early May, De Gasperi suggested to U.S. ambassador James Dunn that it was not wise to form a government without the Communists, but allegedly came away with the clear message that Washington wanted a “purged Cabinet.” De Gasperi is reported to have told Communist leader Togliatti: “You have to understand [that] it is a matter of bread,” meaning U.S. aid. Casella and Eichengreen (1993:330, 338–39); Montanelli and Cervi (1985:150); James C. Dunn to Marshall, memorandum, “Current Economic and Financial Policies of the Italian Government,” May 7, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 901; James C. Dunn to Marshall, May 6, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 893; Marshall to Embassy in Italy, May 15, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 904.

41 Esposito (1994); Kindleberger (1984:11).

42 New York Times (June 2, 1948); New York Times (July 13, 1948).

43 Carlisle (2015:223).

44 Beevor and Cooper (1994 [2004]:15, 321–24).

45 Beevor and Cooper (1994 [2004]:325); Esposito (1994:46, 50); David K. E. Bruce to Hoffman, September 14, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 649.

46 Statistical Office of the United Nations (various years); OEEC (1957); Mitchell (2007), Europe.

47 OEEC (1957); Mitchell (2007), Europe.

48 Esposito (1994:94–107).

49 Esposito (1994:109).

50 Correlates of War Project (June 2010); Singer, Bremer, and Stuckey (1972).

51 The National Advisory Council was one of two advisory boards set up by the Foreign Assistance Act of 1948 to aid the ECA administrator. It consisted of the secretary of the treasury, the secretary of state, the secretary of commerce, the Fed chairman, the chairman of the Export-Import Bank, and the ECA administrator (as long as the ECA existed). Its purpose was to “coordinate the policies and operations of the representatives of the United States on the [IMF and World Bank boards] and of all agencies of the Government which make or participate in making foreign loans or which engage in foreign financial, exchange or monetary transactions.” Source: Legislative History of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1948, P.L. 80-472.

52 National Advisory Council Staff Committee to National Advisory Council, “Use of French Franc Counterpart,” January 29, 1951, Box 5, Subject Files, Progr. Div.-Country Desk Section, ECA/OSR, RG 469, National Archives.

53 See, for example, David K. E. Bruce to Dean Acheson, September 1, 1950, in FRUS, 1950, III: 1384.

54 Esposito (1994:48–54); Marshall, memorandum of conversation with Queuille and others, November 18, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 677–82.

55 Esposito (1994:129); “Meeting for Discussion of the Italian Program, Viminale Palace, Rome,” September 11, 1948, Box 40, Country Files, Adm. Serv. Div.-Comm. Rec. Section, ECA/OSR, RG 469, National Archives.

56 Mitchell (2007), Europe.

57 ECA (1949).

58 Casella and Eichengreen (1993:339–40).

59 Esposito (1994:133–42); ECA (1949:35).

60 Esposito (1994:172–79).

61 Esposito (1994:190–96); Acheson to U.S. Embassy in Rome, December 2, 1950, in FRUS, 1950, III: 1501–2.

62 Esposito (1994:196); Harlan Cleveland to Leon Dayton, October 20, 1950, Box 10, Country Files, Progr. Dev.-Country Desk Section, ECA/OSR, RG 469, National Archives.

63 The Saar only reverted to (West) Germany in 1957.

64 Gareau (June 1961:530).

65 See, for example, Julius C. Holmes to Acheson, September 1, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 270.

66 Murphy to Marshall, November 5, 1948, Folder: “Misc. Correspondence, 1948 Campaign [2 of 2],” Box 22, Political File, Clifford Papers, Truman Library.

67 Smith (1990:294); Stuart Symington to Truman, “Interview with General Clay,” July 25–30, 1946, Truman Papers, Truman Library.

68 New York Times (March 7, 1947); Gimbel (1968:150, 153, 164).

69 Wolf (1993:32); Bidwell (1970:22–24).

70 Krengel (1958).

71 “In response to the crisis [of the winter of 1947, which put strain on the transport system when canals froze], the military authorities directed all efforts to the improvement of transport and by August 1947 the situation was improving. In January 1948, the rail network, rolling stock and waterways were in a satisfactory state—no longer a constraint on the growth of economic activity.” Source: Carlin (1989:44).

72 Berger and Ritschl (1995:218–20).

73 OEEC (1957); ECA (1949–1950), Reports to Congress, April 1949–December 1950; Mitchell (2007), Europe; USAID (undated): https://eads.usaid.gov/gbk/.

74 Statistical Office of the United Nations (1954:477).

75 Berger and Ritschl (1995:221–22); Ritschl (June 15, 2012); Ritschl (June 25, 2012). The London Agreement placed some of Germany’s World War I reparations bonds, from the 1920s, on hold—pending future German reunification. In the 1960s and 1970s, when German reunification seemed less likely, the German debt authority purchased the debt back at a significant discount—it traded at 8 percent of face value in the 1970s. This reduced the payments that Germany actually had to incur after reunification. Source: Guinnane (August 13, 2015). Reunification in 1990 revived these debts from the 1920s, and the country began to repay them in 1995. Germany’s final payment of $94 million was made on October 3, 2010. Source: Suddath (October 4, 2010).

76 Lovett to Marshall, December 9, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 759; Berger and Ritschl (1995:227); Ritschl (June 15, 2012); Ritschl (June 25, 2012).

77 Smith (1990:230).

78 Smith (1990:453–54). The German word was not quite as pejorative as the official translation, as Semler meant it to refer specifically to American corn—which many Germans disliked.

79 Henry J. Kellermann, memorandum, October 31, 1947, 862.00/10-3147, RG 59, National Archives.

80 Stauffer, memorandum, April 30, 1948, 862.5043/4-3048, RG 59, National Archives.

81 Murphy to State Department, September 16, 1947, 740.00119 Control (Germany)/19-1647, RG 59, National Archives.

82 Gimbel (1968:117).

83 Smith (1990:392–93).

84 Schröder (1986:315).

85 See, for example, Van Hook (2004:69–89).

86 Smith (1990:234).

87 Murphy to H. Freeman Matthews, April 27, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 910; Clay to Daniel Noce, April 29, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 914.

88 Clayton, memorandum of conversation with Marshall, June 20, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, II: 929.

89 Kennan, memorandum, July 18, 1947, in FRUS, 1947, III: 332.

90 Robertson, memorandum, July 5, 1947, FO371/645514, Foreign Office, UKNA.

91 See, for example, Giersch, Paqué, and Schmieding (1993:1–2).

92 Smith (1990:452).

93 Smith (1990:484–85); Backer (1983:227–28).

94 Clay to Draper, October 20, 1947, Box 72, OSA 004 Germany File, RG 335, National Archives.

95 Buchanan (2006 [2012]:57).

96 Berger and Ritschl (1995:221–22). Since German unification in 1990 the planned reparations conference has never been held, and it is widely accepted that the country’s war debts have been extinguished.

97 Folder: “January–June 1949,” Box 72, Press Conference File, Secretary of State Files, Acheson Papers, Truman Library.

98 Smith (1990:235).

99 Gimbel (1968:152); Clay to Marshall, May 2, 1947, in Smith I (1974:346–49).

100 Price (1955:123); Ungerer (1997:26).

101 Eichengreen and Braga de Macedo (March 2001).

102 Richard Clarke, memorandum, “The Future of Sterling,” February 25, 1948, T236/2398, Treasury Papers, UKNA.

103 Eichengreen (1996:106).

104 Erhard (1953); Milward (1991).

105 Schröder (1986:321).

106 Kennan I (1967:447–48).

107 Milward (April 1989:252).

108 Milward (2004:62–63).

109 This is an argument with which Eichengreen disagrees. See, for example, Eichengreen and Uzan (April 1992).

110 Burnham (1990:99); “American Assistance,” July 22, 1948, T232/101, Treasury Papers, UKNA.

111 Milward (2004:69–70).

112 Smith (1990:360).

113 Milward (April 1989:243–44); “Economic Consequences of Receiving No European Recovery Aid,” June 23, 1948, Cabinet Paper CP (48) 161, CAB 129/28, UKNA; Bossuat (Spring 1984).

114 French calorie consumption in 1947 was 14.2 percent below 1949 levels. Sources: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (1950:74) and (1952:19).

115 Milward (1984:105, footnote 20).

116 Milward (April 1989:246).

117 Milward (April 1989:246–47).

118 Note, too, that German raw material imports surged after the outbreak of the Korean War, pushing the country into a balance of payments deficit that its neighbors would never have financed on their own. The Marshall-funded EPU allowed Germany to finance the ramping-up of its export industry, which would come to fulfill the American ambition of supplying western Europe’s capital goods needs. See, for example, Giersch, Paqué, and Schmieding (1993:16–18) and Berger and Ritschl (1995:229–40).

119 Price (1955); Jones (1955).

120 See in particular Kolko and Kolko (1972).

121 Huempfer (2016).

122 The State Department chose to err on the side of deutschmark undervaluation, authorizing a greater devaluation than the West German authorities requested. McCloy to Acheson, September 20, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 449; Webb to McCloy, September 21, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 450; Bruce to Webb, September 22, 1949, in FRUS, 1949, III: 451–52.

123 See Steil (2013).

124 Kolko and Kolko (1972:360).

125 Central Intelligence Group, “Strategy of Soviet Delay in Treaty Ratification,” Weekly Summary Excerpt, July 25, 1947, in Kuhns (1997:124); Pechnatov and Edmondson (2001:132–33).

126 See, for example, Gimbel (1968:163–67).

127 National Security Council, report for the president, “Report by the National Security Council on U.S. Objectives with Respect to the USSR to Counter Soviet Threats to U.S. Security,” NSC 20/4, November 23, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, I: 662–69.

128 Mackinder (April 1904).

129 Grieder (2000:12); Djilas (1962:139); Pechatnov (2010:109).

130 Policy Planning Staff, “Considerations Affecting the Conclusion of a North Atlantic Security Pact,” PPS/43, November 23, 1948, in FRUS, 1948, III: 287.

131 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:389).

132 Lodge to Vandeberg then Marshall, October 20, 1947, 840.50 Recovery/10-2047, RG 59, National Archives.

133 Abelshauser (1991:367).

134 Hillary Clinton (June 2, 2011): www.marshallfoundation.org/SecretaryClintonremarksJune22011.htm. See also Yacoubian (January 11, 2012); Oweis (October 22, 2011); Bloomberg View (January 13, 2013); and Frattini (May 26, 2011).

135 Troianovski and Karnitsching (July 31, 2013) and Jordans (June 4, 2013). See also Maier (June 9, 2012); Soros (June 26, 2012); Crafts (June 2012); and Agnew (August 6, 2012).

136 Thompson (March 12, 2014).

137 Casey, Solomon, and Mitnick (July 25, 2014).

138 Eichengreen (July 20, 2011); Peel (February 22, 2012); Crafts (July 2, 2012).

139 Davis (June 22, 2011).

140 Maiello (December 7, 2009).

141 Wall Street Journal (November 12, 2014); Page (November 9, 2014).

142 Gore (2006:11).

143 Tcherneva (May 12, 2016).

144 Judt (2005:156).

145 See, for example, Deaton (September 2013 [October 12, 2015]).

146 Lutz and Desai (January 5, 2015).

147 Gaddis (1982 [2005]:380–85).

CHAPTER 14: ECHOES

1 Sarotte (2009:39–45); Hertle (1996:173–74); “Kontrollen eigelstellt—nicht mehr in der Lage.—Punkt,” published transcript of an interview with Jäger, in Hertle (1996:380–89); New York Times (November 10, 1989:A5); Sarotte (2014:139–53).

2 Sarotte (2009:63).

3 Zelikow and Rice (1995:103); Sarotte (2009:52–53); “Vor dem Schöneberger Rathaus in Berlin am 10. November 1989,” in Auswärtiges Amt (1995:618–22).

4 See, for example, Simms (2013).

5 Sarotte (2009:64, 73–77, 79, 82–83); Teltschik (1991:60–61).

6 Sarotte (2009:55); Press reports, Folder 11, Box 108, 8c Monthly Files, Series 8, Baker Papers, Mudd Library, Princeton University.

7 Sarotte (2009:80).

8 Sarotte (2009:79).

9 Sarotte (2009:80–81); “Information von Wjatschleslaw Kotschemassow, UdSSR-Botschafter in der DDR, an Hans Modrow, DDR-Ministerpräsident, über ein Treffen mit den Bonner Botschaftern der USA, Großbritanniens und Frankreichs am 11; Dezember 1989 in Westberlin (Auszüge),” reprinted as Document 10 in Nakath, Neugebauer, and Stephan (1998:93–97).

10 Putin (2000:69); Sarotte (2009:19, 85–86, 93–94, 195).

11 National Security Archive (November 18, 2009); Sarotte (2009:71); Teltschik (1991:40–42); “SU und ‘deutsche Frage,’ ” Document 112A, in Deutsche Einheit Sonderedition: 616–18.

12 Sarotte (2009:77, 107–15, 136–37); “President Gorbachev Interview to Soviet and German Journalists,” in Freedman (1990:507); “Schreiben des Außenministers Baker an Bundeskanzler Kohl, 10. Februar 1990,” Document 173, in Deutsche Einheit Sonderedition: 793–94; “Schreiben des Präsidenten Bush an Bundeskanzler Kohl, 9. Februar 1990,” reproduced in English as Document 170 in Deutsche Einheit Sonderedition: 784–85; Zelikow and Rice (1995:183–84).

13 Sarotte (2009:138–40); Harvey Sicherman to Dennis Ross and Robert Zoellick, memorandum, March 12, 1990, Folder 14, Box 176, Series 12, Baker Papers, Mudd Library, Princeton University.

14 Sarotte (2009:104); Ritter (2006:31); Schäuble (1991:293).

15 Sarotte (2009:142, 147, 159, 164–67); Szabo (1992:93); “Vorlage des Ministerialdirektors Teltschik an Bundeskanzler Kohl,” May 8, 1990, Document 270, in Deutsche Einheit Sonderedition: 1096–98; “Gespräch des Ministerialdirektors Teltschik mit Botschafter Karski und dem stellvertretenden Abteilungsleiter Sulek, Bonn, 19; März 1990,” Document 223, in Deutsche Einheit Sonderedition: 956n1; “Initiative Kohl-Mitterrand zur Europäischen Union: Botschaft des Staatspräsidenten der Französischen Republik, François Mitterrand, und des Bundeskanzlers der Bundesrepublik Deutscheland, Helmut Kohl, an den irischen Premierminister und amtierenden Präsidenten des Europäischen Rates, Charles Haughey, vom 18. April 1990,” in Auswärtiges Amt (1995:669–70); Time (June 4, 1990).

16 See Zelikow and Rice (1995:356–63) on the troop deal.

17 Albright (June 5, 1997): http://gos.sbc.edu/a/albright3.html.

18 Steel (1980:442); Bohlen (1969).

19 “The President’s News Conference with President Boris Yeltsin of Russia in Helsinki,” March 21, 1997, in Public Papers of the Presidents: William J. Clinton, 1997.

20 Halle (1967:132, 136).

21 Friedman (October 2008 [April 15, 2012]). Sestanovich (April 14, 2015) argues that NATO was not and is not a military threat to Russia. Unless Article 5 is worthless, however, it is impossible to accept this. Countries that join NATO have attacked Russian military forces outside Russia and have joined in military actions that Russia opposes, all under the protective umbrella of Article 5.

22 More precisely, the Soviet Union incorporated the eastern territories of Ukraine and Belorussia in 1922. The western parts would be incorporated in September 1939. The Republic of Belorussia would change its name to Belarus in 1991.

23 Friedman (January 25, 2016).

24 Asmus (2002:10).

25 Bush and Scowcroft (1998:514); New York Times (June 15, 1990); Plokhy (2014:25).

26 Asmus (2002:23–24).

27 The Council on Foreign and Defense Policy is a nongovernmental body established by veteran diplomats.

28 Gorskii (June 2001:29); Greene (June 2012).

29 Asmus (2002:115).

30 Gorbachev (2016:307–8).

31 Steel (May 26, 1997).

32 Asmus (2002:45, 122); Nunn (June 22, 1995): http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_24781.htm?selectedLocale=en.

33 Talbott (2002:132–33).

34 Asmus (2002:35, 43, 66, 70, 74); Clinton, “The President’s News Conference with President Boris Yeltsin of Russia in Helsinki,” March 21, 1997, in Public Papers of the Presidents: William J. Clinton, 1997; Asmus, Kugler, and Larrabee (September/October 1993:35).

35 NATO revised its military strategy in the summer of 1990 and stated that it no longer considered the Soviet Union a threat. (Asmus:2002:5, 26).

36 This is how Asmus (2002:25, 35, 54, 84) characterizes President Clinton’s aims in expanding NATO.

37 Haslam (January 1998:124).

38 Gingrich et al. (1994:112–13).

39 BBC (undated); Sanders (March 6, 2014).

40 See, for example, Friedman (December 28, 2015).

41 Gorbachev (2016:309).

42 Finkel (January 30, 2016); Galeotti (November 26, 2015); Government of the Russian Federation (February 15, 2016). Medvedev did not deny the airspace incursion, as earlier Russian commentators had, but said that the Russian plane “might have flown in for a few seconds and immediately left.”

43 Albright (February 18, 1997): http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_25715.htm?selectedLocale=en.

44 Madeleine Albright, statement before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, October 7, 1947, in Senate Committee on Foreign Relations (1998:24).

45 See, for example, Dobbs (July 8, 1997).

46 Holbrooke and Danner (Winter 1997/1998). See also Holbrooke (March/April 1995).

47 Cohen (September 18, 1997).

48 Albright (February 15, 1997).

49 Asmus, Kugler, and Larrabee (1997 [Autumn 1996:7]). For an opposing view at the time, see Perlmutter and Carpenter (January/February 1998). CNN (1997).

50 Danner (Fall 1997).

51 Holbrooke and Danner (Winter 1997/1998).

52 Government of the Russian Federation (2000:10); Asmus, Kugler, and Larrabee (September/October 1993:31).

53 Shlapak and Johnson (2016).

54 “[W]hile fostering a cooperative relationship with Russia is desirable, it is important for America to send a clear message about its global priorities. If a choice must be made between a larger Europe-Atlantic system and a better relationship with Russia, the former must rank higher.” Brzezinski (September/October 1997). Asmus (January/February 2008:101, 103) argued that NATO acted to “consolidate democratic change” in eastern Europe and “indirectly encourage[d] democratization in Russia.”

55 Sestanovich (April 14, 2015).

56 Tóth (July 27, 2014); Simon (July 28, 2014).

57 Asmus (January/February 2008:100).

58 Greene (June 2012:9, 12).

59 Malling (March 2015).

60 Lukyanov (May/June 2016:32); Izvestia (August 11, 2008).

61 Ullman (August 12, 1999).

62 Jones (June 1, 2015).

63 Zubok (2007:66); Zubok and Pleshakov (1996:50); Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:108–10).

64 Blome, Diekmann, and Biskup (January 11, 2016).

65 BBC (November 18, 2014).

66 Shchetko and Cullison (December 23, 2014).

67 Quoted in Rapoza (June 6, 2016). Italics added.

68 The conversation is recounted by Peres in Samuels (September 29, 2016).

69 Kennan (February 5, 1997).

70 Pechatnov and Edmondson (2001:95); Pechatnov (2006:257).

71 See, for example, Light (2006:67–68).

72 Government of the Russian Federation (2000:9–10).

73 Light (2006:51, 63–64); Greene (June 2012); Barysch (2005:118).

74 Kantchev (February 25, 2016).

75 Government of the Russian Federation (2000:10).

76 A Russian official with whom I spoke was highly critical of Polish influence over EU Ukraine policy. See Lowe (February 24, 2014); Foy (December 15, 2015); and Menkiszak (November 18, 2014). Johnson and Robinson (2005:13).

77 Government of the Russian Federation (February 13, 2016).

78 Pravda, “On the Forthcoming Conference in Paris,” June 25, 1947, RGASPI, Fond 495, op. 261, file 119.

79 Mangasarian (May 15, 2014). See also Miller (February 26, 2016): http://mashable.com/2016/02/26/russia-europe-brexit/#8ZYEdG7wkqq8.

80 Greene (June 2012:18).

81 Rettman (November 17, 2014).

82 Birnbaum (May 22, 2015).

83 Halle (1967:156).

84 For a Russian perspective, see Bordachev (2005:57). For a German perspective, see Voigt (March 1996), who draws “a conceptual linkage between the enlargement of the EU and of NATO.” On the American side, Asmus echoed Voigt on “a loose link between the EU and NATO.” Asmus and Larrabee (November/December 1996). Kupchan proposed a merger of the EU and NATO into an Atlantic Union (AU). Kupchan (May/June 1996). For a later American perspective, see Drozdiak (May/June 2010).

EU leaders have also long coveted an independent European defense capacity to supplement NATO. See, for example, Norman and Barnes (September 13, 2016). The initiative received a further boost from the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president in November 2016: see, for example, Barnes and Norman (November 15, 2016); and Emmott (November 30, 2016).

85 See, for example, Gaddis (February 26, 2009:7).

86 See, for example, Shlapak and Johnson (2016), which concludes that “as currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members” in the Baltics. As of February 2017, twenty-three of the twenty-eight NATO countries had voted to support Montenegro’s accession, which Russia strongly opposes.

87 Kennan, quoted in Friedman (May 2, 1998).

88 Contemporary Western public support for NATO is weak. See, for example, Stokes (March 18, 2016).