1. Stern traditionalists in the service of the United States still insist on this form. Cf. an interview with Mr. Thomas Mann, Undersecretary of State for Economic Affairs, New York Times, May 9, 1965.
2. Albert O. Hirschman. The Strategy of Economic Development. New York. Yale University Press. 1958. Pp. 11 et seq.
1. Cf. Jacob Viner, “The Economics of Development,” in The Economics of Underdevelopment. A. N. Agarwala and S. P. Singh. (Bombay. Oxford University Press.) P. 13. Also Bernard Okun and Richard W. Richardson, Status in Economic Development (New York. Holt, Rinehart and Winston) p. 236. “The size of per capita income is used by most writers as the criterion for differentiating between advanced and underdeveloped countries.”
2. Henry J. Bruton, “Growth Models and Underdeveloped Economies,” Journal of Political Economy, 1955. Reprinted in Agarwala and Singh. Op. cit. pp. 219-220.
3. Cambridge. (Cambridge University Press), 1960.
4. Ibid., p. 36 et seq.
5. Simon Kuznetz, “Notes on the Take-Off.” Paper presented before International Economic Association, September, 1960.
6. Professor Rostow states that India, along with China, launched its take-off during the 1950’s. (Op. cit., p. 9.) He later cautions (p. 38) that it is still too soon to judge whether the effort will be successful—a suggestion of an otherwise unexplored notion that the stages of growth may be somewhat reversible. (He then concludes that as in China “the commitment . . . to modernization appears too deep to permit more than temporary setbacks”) (p. 48). The near certainty is that only heroic efforts, including a continuation of extensive provision of food from abroad, will prevent a deterioration of per capita income in India in coming years.
7. I have drawn heavily, and gratefully, on seminar and class discussion of this classification. I first presented it at the Third Rehovot Conference in Israel in August, 1965. I have also benefited from that discussion.
8. Elliot J. Berg. “Socialism and Economic Development in Tropical Africa.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, November, 1964, pp. 560-561. (Mr. Berg argues with much effect that this shortage of qualified talent has not prevented—and has possibly encouraged—a number of these countries to commit scarce administrative resources to demanding experiments in socialism and planning at heavy cost to themselves.)
9. Ernest Lefever. Crisis in the Congo. The Brookings Institution, 1965. P. 9.
10. Frederick Harbison and Charles A. Myers, Education, Manpower and Economic Growth. New York. McGraw-Hill, 1964. P. 38. I am indebted to Richard S. Sharpe for a useful discussion of these figures in “The Manpower Gap in Middle Africa,” an unpublished seminar paper, Harvard University.
11. Cf. George H. Kimble. Tropical Africa, Volume II, “Society and Policy.” New York. Doubleday, 1962. Pp. 469 et seq.
1. “Basically, the problem [of Chilean agriculture] is lack of economic opportunities—resulting from the lack of employment alternatives, lack of knowledge and skills, and lack of collective power among workers.” An Open Letter to Chilean Landowners. By Peter Dorner. Mimeographed, May, 1965. Professor Dorner of the University of Wisconsin has recently spent a number of years studying Chilean agricultural and tenure problems.
2. In 1949, 20 per cent of the population in Canada and the United States was in agriculture as compared with 60 per cent in South America. Production per person was something over five times as great. In 1947/48 output per person was 143 per cent of prewar levels in North America (including Central America) and 83 per cent of pre-war in South America. United Nations Department of Economic Affairs. “Land Reform: Defects in Agrarian Structure and Obstacles to Economic Development.” New York, United Nations, 1951. Data are from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
3. In certain philosophical or political contexts, this may be held to be true of the armed forces of any country. They are said to serve the wrong foreign policy, be part of the wrong defense strategy, serve only the arms race, or whatnot. But the armed forces are seriously in the service of the disapproved philosophical or political goals. In Latin America no serious observer supposes that the armed services are seriously important for national defense, territorial integrity or any other military or foreign policy objective. Their role is exclusively related to domestic politics and income.
4. This is a matter of much practical importance, especially as regards the armed forces. Generally in the United States there has been recognition of the bearing of a regressive or feudal land system on economic development. That caudillo government, either by itself or in association with other non-functional groups, can be equally inimical has not been so readily seen. As a consequence, conservative, or more often simplistically traditionalist, officials regularly turn up defending army dictatorships in Latin America. And, in the past, military aid funds have regularly gone to support armies, which were a source of political power, at the same time that economic assistance was being given to development or even (hopefully) to land reform. It would be difficult to find a policy with a greater element of self-contradiction and this is not lessened by the tendency of those who espouse support to the Latin American military to assume that pragmatism, professionalism and even an element of righteousness are on their side.
5. Francis N. Schott. “Inflation and Stabilization Efforts in Chile, 1953-1958.” Inter-American Affairs, Winter, 1959. Reprinted in Leading Issues in Development Economics, by Gerald M. Meier. New York. Oxford University Press, 1964. P. 221.
6. Venezuela also has rich income from oil but may gradually be breaking the hold of a regressive social structure which for a long time led to the dissipation and waste of this revenue.
7. Although not in all categories of teachers or with a sufficient willingness to serve in rural villages.
8. The army is not without political power in Pakistan. However, it is not a recognized avenue to political power and economic advantage as in Latin America. And the armed coup which brought President Ayub Khan to power in 1959 (like his subsequent administration) bore little or no resemblance to the Latin American phenomenon.
1. They constitute more than one-third of all degree-holding secondary teachers in Ghana and teach over 20,000 secondary students in that country. In Malawi, they provide over one-third of all secondary teachers and have helped to double the secondary school enrollment. In Sierra Leone, they provide over one-half of all qualified teachers. In Liberia, the Peace Corps furnished 90 per cent of all degree-holding teachers. In Nigeria, 25 per cent of all graduate teachers in secondary schools are Peace Corps Volunteers who teach 40,000 students, representing 35 per cent of the total enrollment of secondary students. In Ethiopia and West Cameroon, 40 per cent of all qualified secondary teachers are Volunteers. Sharpe, op. cit. in my third lecture, p. 30.
2. In Laos, in the 1950’s, it was United States policy, when in doubt as to what should be done, to provide more money. The Eisenhower administration, with a warm respect for pecuniary values, naturally assumed that money must do good. In fact, in widening the economic difference between the city recipients and the countryside, and proving the feasibility of winning wealth without effort, it probably did a certain measure of damage.
3. The idea of a Teachers Corps in the United States, a proposal with which I have been identified, has similar provenance. The poor school districts need not money, which they often spend incompetently, but highly qualified and motivated talent which they cannot buy. It is hoped that the Teachers Corps will provide such talent.
4. Cf. Berg. Op. cit. in my third lecture, p. 30.
5. This conclusion is argued by Celso Furtado in an important forthcoming paper, “Development and Stagnation in Latin America: A Structuralist Approach,” Yale University, Economic Growth Center, which he has been good enough to let me read.
6. Professor A. O. Hirschman has drawn attention to other such policy rhythms, derived from a tendency to look with favor on any alternative to what is presently being done, in the field of exchange control, fiscal policy and development administration. Economic Development and Cultural Change. University of Chicago Press. 1957. I have been impressed by the same tendency and attribute much of it to optimistic newcomers, both indigenous and foreign, in the field of economic development. Along with extremely important enthusiasm they bring a strong tendency, on seeing something wrong, to assume that any change must be for the better. They cannot easily be persuaded either that present policy is the result of similar previous convictions or that the alternative policy had an earlier and equally unsatisfactory incarnation.
7. A case that has been argued in a different context by my colleague, Alexander Gerschenkron. “Economic Backwardness in Historical Perspective” in The Progress of Underdeveloped Areas. Edited by B. F. Hoselitz. Chicago. University of Chicago Press, 1952.
8. It will be the view of any close student of United States policy in Latin America, I believe, that more is to be feared from political innocence than political reaction. It has been extensively influenced in the past by a generation of professional diplomats who had no experience with the liberal leavening of domestic politics and the discovery that Negroes, the unemployed, farmers, trade union members were not automatically enamored of the status quo and what best suited respectable and well-to-do white Anglo-Saxon Protestants of good family and education. Nor were they especially informed on the academic currents of liberal economic and political thought. At the same time, they drew on undoubted and lengthy experience in Latin America. This experience was all but exclusively with the elite; it led to an almost automatic identification with this point of view and a deep, self-confident and at times self-righteous conviction that the masses in Latin America did not count. These attitudes are not identified with any serious economic interest of the United States although they are, of course, applauded by American conservatives. It is for this reason that one properly associates them with innocence rather than reaction. Although sophistication is unquestionably increasing, these attitudes have not disappeared, at least from among the older generation of officers. They had an unhappy initial influence on recent policy toward the Dominican Republic; only gradually were more liberal and sophisticated attitudes brought to bear.
9. Technical assistance in industrial, educational and agricultural fields is, at best, of marginal importance in the Model. However, it is my feeling that in countries such as India, it has, in fact, been overemphasized. It can be useful in specific areas where, despite the ample cultural base, specific technical or other intellectual resources are limited.
1. David Cameron, Nationalism, Self Determination, and the Quebec Question, Toronto: Macmillan of Canada, 1974.
2. Garth Stevenson, Unfulfilled Union. Toronto: Macmillan, 1979.
3. Statistics Canada.
4. Statistics Canada, figures on mother-tongue of Montreal population.
5. Personal communication with Public Information Officer at the Toronto Stock Exchange.
6. Statistics Canada.
7. Statistics Canada.
8. This and all subsequent history of Norway and Sweden come from the following books:
T. K. Derry. A History of Modern Norway 1814-1972. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1973.
John Midgaard. A Brief History of Norway. Oslo: Johan Grundt Tanum Forlag, 1969.
Karen Larsen. A History of Norway, Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1948.
9. Larry Grossman, Ontario’s current Minister of Industry and Tourism.
10. Government of Canada, Department of Industry, Trade and Commerce; Western Europe Division.
11. Ibid.
12. Statistics Canada, Imports and Exports between Norway and Canada for years 1976-1978.
13. Gunnar Jerman (ed.). Norway 79. Oslo: Export Council of Norway, 1979.
14. Statistics Canada, Imports and Exports between Norway and Canada for years 1976-1978.
15. Ola Veigaard (ed.). Facts About Norway, 15th edition. Oslo: Aftenposten, 1975.
16. Norway 79, op. cit.
17. Gunnar Jerman (ed.). New Norway. Oslo: Export Council of Norway, 1973.
18. J. J. Brown. Ideas In Exile. Toronto: McClelland and Stewart, 1967.
19. George Gibb and Evelyn Knowlton. History of Standard Oil, vol. 2. New York: Harper, 1956.
20. Personal communication with the Chairman of the Ontario Hostelry Directorship Institute.
21. Iona and Peter Opie (eds.). Oxford Dictionary of Nursery Rhymes. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1952.
22. F. H. Pritchard (ed.). The World’s Best Essays. New York: Albert and Charles Boni, 1932.
23. Personal communication.
24. Statistics Canada, Federal Government Employment.
25. René Lévesque. My Quebec. Toronto: Methuen, 1979.
26. Government of Quebec. “Quebec-Canada: A New Deal—The Quebec Government proposal for a new partnership between equals: sovereignty-association.” Tabled in the Quebec National Assembly, 1 November 1979.
27. Statistics Canada, Manufacturing and Primary Industries Division.
28. Personal communication.
29. Bank of Canada, Toronto.
30. Personal communication.
31. This and all others, except where noted, are from Lévesque, My Quebec, op. cit.
32. David Cameron, op. cit.
33. Stephen Jay Gould. “Dreamer,” a review of Freeman Dyson’s Disturbing The Universe. New York Review of Books. 11 October 1979.
34. A. O. Lovejoy. The Great Chain of Being. New York: Harper Torchbook, 1963.
35. Quebec, Le Ministre d’Etat au development culturel. “Towards a Scientific Research Policy for Quebec,” as summarized in Agenda, a quarterly bulletin of the Science Council of Canada, vol. 2 number 3, 1979.
36. Morrison Renfrew, project manager for Ontario’s Urban Transportation Development Corporation, quoted in the Toronto Globe and Mail, 25 July 1979.
37. Letter to the Editor from Shinji Nakamura, Head HSST System Engineering Group, Tokyo, in the Toronto Globe and Mail, 1 September 1979.
38. Virginia Woolf. Between The Acts. London: Hogarth Press, 1941.
I am deeply indebted to Diane Rotstein for research and editorial assistance, to Max Allen for directing and editing the broadcast lectures, to Geraldine Sherman for arranging for them, and to all three for their advice, taste and the enjoyment of working with them.
I thank Decker Butzner, Stephen Clarkson, Kari Dehli, Robert, James and Burgin Jacobs, Douglas Manzer, Doris Mehegan, Alan Powell and the staffs of the Norwegian Trade Commission, the Swedish Trade Commission and the Toronto Public Library for their various contributions of assistance.
My deepest gratitude is for a fact: that even when the subject is as contentious as the one I have chosen, Canada’s government-owned broadcasting corporation can serve free speech without hint or taint of censorship.
1. Such concerns also appear in Professor Kierans’ resignation from the Federal cabinet; see Appendix C.
1. The complete text is printed in Appendix A.
2. The complete text is printed in Appendix B.