Introduction: Threat of War, December 2018
1. “I wouldn’t say that”: John Bolton interview by Gerard Baker, Wall Street Journal CEO Conference, Dec. 4, 2018.
Chapter 1: Miscalculations, April—May 2019
1. That would only be necessary: Lingling Wei and Bob Davis, “China Hardens Trade Stance as Talks Enter New Phase,” Wall Street Journal, May 9, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-china-decided-to-play-hardball-in-trade-talks-11557358715.
2. $1.2 trillion in “additional purchases”: Steven Mnuchin interview by Maria Bartiromo, Mornings with Maria, Fox Business Network, Dec. 4, 2018.
3. “read them the riot act”: Larry Kudlow interview, Squawk on the Street, CNBC, Feb. 28, 2019.
4. stay put until further notice: Lingling Wei, Vivian Salama, Michael C. Bender, and Bob Davis, “Frustration, Miscalculation: Inside the U.S.-China Trade Impasse,” Wall Street Journal, May 13, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/frustration-miscalculation-inside-the-u-s-china-trade-impasse-11557692301.
5. “We are very clear”: Wendy Wu, “China’s Vice-Premier Liu He Says ‘Small Setbacks’ Will Not Derail Trade War Talks,” South China Morning Post, May 11, 2019, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3009824/chinas-vice-premier-liu-he-says-small-setbacks-will-not-derail.
6. State media labeled: “Let ‘Surrender Theory’ Become a Street Mouse,” Xinhua, Jun. 8, 2019.
7. “This picture of”: Nicholas R. Lardy, The State Strikes Back (Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, January 2019), 2.
Chapter 2: China’s Rise, 1980s and 1990s
1. Xi urged Zhejiang: Guangming Daily, http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/64093/64099/14474959.html.
2. Henry Kissinger: Andy Serwer, “Henry Kissinger: China Then and Now,” Fortune, Sept. 8, 2011, http://fortune.com/2011/09/08/henry-kissinger-china-then-and-now.
3. China increased per capita: “World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim’s Remarks at the Opening Ceremony of the First China International Import Expo,” World Bank, Nov. 5, 2018, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/speech/2018/11/05/world-bank-group-president-jim-yong-kims-remarks-at-the-opening-ceremony-of-the-first-china-international-import-expo.
4. Deng signed off: News of the Communist Party of China, http://cpc.people.com.cn/GB/85037/85038/7759329.html.
5. Those de facto private firms: Hong-Yi Chen, Township and Village Enterprises (Oxford Bibliography in Chinese Studies, 2016), https://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199920082/obo-9780199920082-0128.xml.
6. Chinese economist: Chong-en Bai, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng Song, “Special Deals with Chinese Characteristics,” National Bureau of Economic Research (May 29, 2019), https://www.nber.org/chapters/c14233.pdf.
7. “‘We need to foster’”: Henry M. Paulson Jr., Dealing with China (New York: Twelve, 2015), 179.
Chapter 3: Taking on China, 1993
1. “forfeited moral reproof”: Winston Lord, “Misguided Mission,” Washington Post, Dec. 19, 1989, https://www.washingtonpost.com/archive/opinions/1989/12/19/misguided-mission/961859a4-7ad0-41fa-94aa-cff3eb14625e/.
2. “sort of the last straw”: Winston Lord interview by Charles Stuart Kennedy and Nancy Bernkopf Tucker, Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training Foreign Affairs Oral History Project, Initial Interview, April 28, 1998, 564.
3. stayed afterward to complain: Robert S. Greenberger, “Restraint of Trade: Cacophony of Voices Drowns Out Message from U.S. to China,” Wall Street Journal, March 22, 1994.
4. went there to lose his: Greenberger, “Restraint of Trade.”
5. “the Clinton coup”: Michael Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon (New York: St. Martin’s Griffin, 2015), 91.
6. “why should China make concessions?”: Lord oral history, 574.
7. “proper balance should be struck”: Interview with Mack McLarty, April 2019.
8. “a 45-minute monologue”: Lord oral history, 576.
9. hardly signs that China was taking seriously: Robert L. Suettinger, Beyond Tiananmen: The Politics of U.S.-China Relations, 1989–2000 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 2003). Suettinger’s book is excellent in recounting Clinton’s efforts to pressure China to ease up on dissidents.
10. General Electric, AT&T, and “Gold Sacks”: Greenberger, “Restraint of Trade.”
11. “‘who they say lost China’”: Warren Christopher and Strobe Talbott Oral History, UVA/Miller Center Presidential Oral Histories, April 15–16, 2002, https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-oral-histories/warren-christopher-and-strobe-talbott-oral-history.
12. “compared to publicly”: Lord oral history; McLarty interview.
13. ran computer simulations: Lord oral history, 583.
14. open their meeting: Greenberger, “Restraint of Trade.”
15. “door to China is open wider”: Joseph Kahn, “Decision to Delink Trade, Human Rights Relieves U.S. Firms, Chinese Officials,” Wall Street Journal, May 31, 1994.
Chapter 4: Boss Zhu Arrives, April 1999
1. “it would be an inexplicable mistake”: Bill Clinton at the Mayflower Hotel, addressing the U.S. Institute for Peace, April 7, 1999, https://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/eap/990407_clinton_china.html.
2. “China can’t do”: Joint press conference of President Clinton and Premier Zhu Rongji, April 8, 1999, https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/New/html/19990408-1109.html.
3. “Opposition within China”: David Zweig, Internationalizing China (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2002).
4. “Good evening”: Interview with former Chinese diplomat Wang Wenyong.
5. “funny and fiercely proud”: Bill Clinton, My Life (New York: Knopf, 2004), 793–94.
6. A series of letters: Joseph Fewsmith, “China and the WTO: The Politics Behind the Agreement,” National Bureau of Asian Research, November 1999, https://www.iatp.org/sites/default/files/China_and_the_WTO_The_Politics_Behind_the_Agre.htm.
7. “President Jiang Zemin”: Joint press conference of President Clinton and Premier Zhu Rongji, April 8, 1999, https://clintonwhitehouse4.archives.gov/WH/New/html/19990408-1109.html.
8. Charlene Barshefsky, now promoted: Clinton administration debates over Zhu’s visit reflect the recollections of participants and their outside advisers. Coauthor Bob Davis and Helene Cooper, now at the New York Times, closely reported on the U.S.-China WTO negotiations at the time.
9. “The chance to get it done”: Interview with Robert Rubin, February 2019.
10. “ None of the groundwork”: Interview with John Podesta, February 2019.
11. “I’m having trouble”: Interview with Robert Cassidy, April 2019.
12. “bullet proof”: Interviews with a former Chinese trade negotiator and U.S. officials.
13. “I can’t imagine those words”: Interview with Charlene Barshefsky, March 2019, and follow-up discussions.
14. “absolutely furious”: Cassidy interview, April 2019.
15. Clinton had never intended: Helene Cooper and Bob Davis, “No Deal: Overruling Some Staff, Clinton Denies Zhu What He Came For,” Wall Street Journal, April 9, 1999, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB923607789295191805.
16. Zhu made his anger clear: Bob Drogin, “Zhu Criticizes Clinton Over Failed Trade Bid,” Los Angeles Times, April 10, 1999, https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-1999-apr-10-mn-25940-story.html.
17. “No we’re not”: David E. Sanger, “How Push by China and U.S. Business Won Over Clinton,” New York Times, April 15, 1999, https://www.nytimes.com/1999/04/15/world/how-push-by-china-and-us-business-won-over-clinton.html.
18. “I was beside myself”: Interview with Robert Kapp, January 2019.
19. Clinton “didn’t have enough courage”: Drogin, “Zhu Criticizes Clinton.”
20. “more like 99 percent”: Helene Cooper and Bob Davis, “U.S., China Agree to Resume WTO Talks,” Wall Street Journal, April 14, 1999.
21. “hard time believing it”: Clinton, My Life.
22. “This incident”: Pillsbury, The Hundred-Year Marathon, 95.
23. “rigged the maps”: Clinton, My Life, 855.
24. threatened to resign: Hui Feng, The Politics of China’s Accession to the World Trade Organization (New York: Routledge, 2012).
25. “nuclear option”: Paul Blustein, Schism (Waterloo, Ontario: Centre for International Governance Innovation, 2019), 53.
26. Only Li Peng dissented: David Zweig, “China’s Stalled ‘Fifth Wave’: Zhu Rongji’s Reform Package of 1998–2000,” Asian Survey, March/April 2001.
27. “Mr. Sperling said, ‘no,’ six times”: Speech Record of Zhu Rongji (Beijing: People’s Publishing House, 2011).
28. “we’d look weak”: Barshefsky interview, March 2019.
29. “they want to sign”: “Long Yongtu Recounts Details of WTO Negotiations,” 21st Century Business Herald, Nov. 22, 2011, https://news.qq.com/a/20111122/000860.htm.
30. “He wasn’t acting like the negotiator”: Interview with Gene Sperling, March 2019.
Chapter 5: Nailing Jell-O to the Wall, March 2000
1. “nail Jell-O to the wall”: Bill Clinton speech at Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, March 8, 2000, http://movies2.nytimes.com/library/world/asia/030900clinton-china-text.html.
2. “well along the road to democracy”: Henry Rowen, “Why China Will Become a Democracy,” Hoover Digest, Jan. 30, 1999, https://www.hoover.org/research/why-china-will-become-democracy.
3. “responsible stakeholder”: Robert Zoellick keynote address to the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, Sept. 21, 2005, https://2001-2009.state.gov/s/d/former/zoellick/rem/53682.htm.
4. “Hey Ron, Be Kind”: Helene Cooper, “Eclectic Grass-Roots Campaigns Emerge on China Trade,” Wall Street Journal, March 13, 2000.
5. Motorola copied: Peter H. Stone, “K Street Musters for the Middle Kingdom,” National Journal, March 25, 2000.
6. promised funding for a pipeline: Public Citizen’s Global Trade Watch, “Purchasing Power,” October 2000, https://www.citizen.org/wp-content/uploads/purchasingpower.pdf.
7. virtually no manufacturing job: Robert E. Lighthizer, “What Did Asian Donors Want?,” New York Times, Feb. 25, 1997, https://www.nytimes.com/1997/02/25/opinion/what-did-asian-donors-want.html.
8. “Uncertainty would have kept”: Interview with Robert Lighthizer, July 2018.
9. “sacrifice for my country”: Elizabeth C. Economy, The Third Revolution (New York: Oxford University Press, 2018), 88.
10. “You can’t coerce”: Rubin interview, February 2019.
11. “The beneficiaries of the agreement”: Robert Cassidy, “The Failed Expectations of U.S. Trade Policy,” Institute for Policy Studies, June 4, 2008, https://ips-dc.org/the_failed_expectations_of_us_trade_policy/.
Chapter 6: China to the Rescue, 2008
1. “Let us tide over”: Hu Jintao, “Tide Over Difficulties Through Concerted Efforts,” Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Nov. 15, 2008, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/t524323.shtml.
2. she stressed the need to work with China: “Clinton: Chinese Human Rights Can’t Interfere with Other Crises,” CNN, Feb. 21, 2009, http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/02/21/clinton.china.asia/.
3. “the consequences would be catastrophic”: Justin R. Pierce and Peter K. Schott, ” Online Appendix for the Surprisingly Swift Decline of U.S. Manufacturing Employment,” American Economic Review 106, no. 7 (July 2016): 5, https://www.aeaweb.org/content/file?id=1634.
4. depressing prices globally: Lingling Wei, Bob Davis, and Jon Hilsenrath, “Glut of Chinese Goods Pinches Global Economy,” Wall Street Journal, June 1, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/glut-of-chinese-goods-pinches-global-economy-1433212681.
5. “He should have done more”: Lingling Wei and Bob Davis, “For a Top Chinese Banker, Profits Hinder Political Rise,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 18, 2013,
https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424127887324196204578297961462046562.
6. an event called “Operation Sunday”: Lingling Wei and Bob Davis, “In China, Beijing Fights Losing Battle to Rein In Factory Production,” Wall Street Journal, July 16, 2014, https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-china-beijing-fights-losing-battle-to-rein-in-factory-production-1405477804.
7. “a major growth slowdown or a financial crisis”: Sally Chen and Joong Shik Kang, “Credit Booms—Is China Different?” IMF Working Papers, WP/18/2 (Jan. 5, 2018): 8, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2018/01/05/Credit-Booms-Is-China-Different-45537.
8. “There are a few foreigners”: Malcolm Moore, “China’s ‘Next Leader’ in Hardline Rant,” Telegraph, Feb. 16, 2009, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/4637039/Chinas-next-leader-in-hardline-rant.html.
Chapter 7: American Backlash, 2009
1. bullet-train makers transferred know-how: Norihiko Shirouzu, “Train Makers Rail Against China’s High-Speed Designs,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 18, 2010, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748704814204575507353221141616.
2. “I am not sure”: Guy Dinmore and Geoff Dyer, “Immelt Hits Out at China and Obama,” Financial Times, July 1, 2010, https://www.ft.com/content/ed654fac-8518-11df-adfa-00144feabdc0.
3. “determined to maintain a prominent role”: China Manufacturing 2025 (Beijing: European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, 2017), 1, https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/china-manufacturing-2025.
4. one-two punch: Made in China 2025: Global Ambitions Built on Local Protections (Washington, DC: U.S. Chamber of Commerce, 2017), https://www.uschamber.com/report/made-china-2025-global-ambitions-built-local-protections-0.
5. demonstrated that the impact: David H. Autor, David Dorn, and Gordon H. Hanson, “The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States,” National Bureau of Economic Research (May 2012), https://www.nber.org/papers/w18054.pdf.
6. United States imposed tariffs: Chad Bown, “The 2018 U.S.-China Trade Conflict After 40 Years of Special Protection,” Peterson Institute for International Economics, April 2019, 9, https://www.piie.com/publications/working-papers/2018-us-china-trade-conflict-after-40-years-special-protection.
7. “can’t pussyfoot around”: Barshefsky interview, March 2019.
8. “protect our financial interests”: Paulson, Dealing with China, 248.
9. “We aren’t sure”: Paulson, Dealing with China, 240.
10. “The Chinese refused”: Interview with Henry Paulson, May 2019.
11. “sets the gold standard”: “Clinton Says U.S. Backs China Ties,” Gold Coast Bulletin, Nov. 16, 2012.
12. “rape our country”: Donald Trump rally, YouTube, May 2, 2016, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy9iY6CvAHU.
13. would have been enough: David Autor, David Dorn, Gordon Hanson, and Kaveh Majlesi, The China Trade Shock, A Note on the Effect of Rising Trade Exposure on the 2016 Presidential Election, Jan. 6, 2017, http://chinashock.info/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/2016_election_appendix.pdf.
Chapter 8: The Leaders: Trump’s China; Xi’s America
1. “‘Listen you motherfuckers’”: Trump speech, YouTube, April 29, 2011, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wN7KHWdyrbl.
2. “interest rates”: Interview with Donald Trump, Nov. 26, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-of-president-trumps-interview-with-the-wall-street-journal-1543272091.
3. “enormous amount of coverage”: Jacob M. Schlesinger, “Trump Forged His Ideas on Trade in the 1980s—and Never Deviated,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 15, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-forged-his-ideas-on-trade-in-the-1980sand-never-deviated-1542304508. Schlesinger was kind enough to share his files and interviews with us for this book.
4. “the Japanese are on the move”: Theodore H. White, “The Danger from Japan,” New York Times, July 28, 1985, https://www.nytimes.com/1985/07/28/magazine/the-danger-from-japan.html.
5. “spent a lot of time indoctrinating”: Interview with Robert Lutz in Schlesinger, “Trump Forged His Ideas.”
6. “threat after threat”: Donald J. Trump with Dave Shiflett, The America We Deserve (Los Angeles: Renaissance Books, 2000), 146–49.
7. “one of the few people”: Schlesinger, “Trump Forged His Ideas.”
8. “It’s all the same thing”: Schlesinger, “Trump Forged His Ideas.”
9. “planet’s most efficient assassin”: Peter Navarro and Greg Autry, Death by China (Upper Saddle River, NJ: Prentice Hall, 2011).
10. probably phony: Loren Collins, “Debunking Donald Trump’s ‘20 Favorite Books on China,’” Medium, May 9, 2017, https://medium.com/@lorencollins/debunking-donald-trumps-20-favorite-books-on-china-372e9b1d4b4c.
11. “You don’t need to go to China”: Peter Navarro, emailed responses to questions, Dec. 5, 2019.
12. “one of the best performances of a president”: Navarro emailed responses.
13. “a tough place”: Interview with Wilbur Ross in Schlesinger, “Trump Forged His Ideas.”
14. “The greatest dream”: “Great Rejuvenation of the Chinese Nation,” Xinhua, Nov. 29, 2012, http://www.chinanews.com/gn/2012/11-29/4370441.shtml.
15. Xi Jinping was dispatched: Jeremy Page, “Early Hardship Shaped Xi’s Views,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 13, 2012, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052970204062704577218530280697276.
16. the market had failed: Lingling Wei, “China’s Xi Approaches a New Term with a Souring Taste for Markets,” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 16, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-xi-approaches-a-new-term-with-a-souring-taste-for-markets-1508173889.
17. “The Party’s power”: Richard McGregor, Xi Jinping: The Backlash (Penguin eBooks, 2019).
18. “I have the impression”: Charles Hutzler, “Interview with Chinese President Xi Jinping,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 22, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/full-transcript-interview-with-chinese-president-xi-jinping-1442894700.
19. His goal: Jeremy Page and Lingling Wei, “Xi’s Power Play Foreshadows Historic Transformation of How China Is Ruled,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 26, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/xis-power-play-foreshadows-radical-transformation-of-how-china-is-ruled-1482778917.
20. “The not-so-subtle message”: Robert Zoellick, “Can America and China Be Stakeholders?” Remarks at the U.S.-China Business Council’s Gala, Dec. 4, 2019.
21. “No matter how”: “Several Issues on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics,” Seeking Truth, March 31, 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2019-03/31/c_1124307481.htm.
Chapter 9: Flood the Zone, December 2016
1. “had some influence”: Damian Paletta, Carol E. Lee, and Jeremy Page, “Donald Trump’s Message Sparks Anger in China,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 5, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trumps-message-sparks-anger-in-china-1480989202.
2. “fully explain”: Interview with Stephen K. Bannon, June 2019. (We cite Bannon in the endnotes here because the quote pertained to a White House controversy in which he was a participant. We don’t cite him elsewhere in the notes when he acts as an observer.)
3. “Trump is an irrational type”: Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, “Chinese Finance Minister Lou Jiwei Takes Aim at Donald Trump’s Trade Policies,” Wall Street Journal, April 18, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-finance-ministerlou-jiwei-takes-aim-at-donald-trumps-trade-policies-1460892988?mod=article_inline.
4. “That’s how mad”: Bannon interview, June 2019.
5. “They wanted to learn more”: Interview with Ambassador Cui Tiankai, October 2018.
6. “very hostile”: Interview with Hank Greenberg, June 2019.
7. “punched in the face”: Matt Pottinger, “Mightier Than the Pen,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 15, 2005, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB113461636659623128.
8. “He strongly dislikes”: Koya Jibiki and Ken Moriyasu, “Abe Scores Big in ‘Fairway Diplomacy’ with Trump,” Nikkei Asian Review, Feb. 16, 2017, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Abe-scores-big-in-fairway-diplomacy-with-Trump.
9. With the Abe: Mark Landler, “China Learns How to Get Trump’s Ear: Through Jared Kushner,” New York Times, April 2, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/02/us/politics/trump-china-jared-kushner.html.
10. “not so easy”: Gerard Baker, Carol E. Lee, and Michael C. Bender, “Trump Says He Offered China Better Trade Terms in Exchange for Help on North Korea,” Wall Street Journal, April 12, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-he-offered-china-better-trade-terms-in-exchange-for-help-on-north-korea-1492027556.
11. “testified quite a bit”: Interview with Wilbur Ross, October 2019.
Chapter 10: Things Fall Apart, Summer-Fall 2017
1. didn’t forward the memo: Bob Woodward, Fear: Trump in the White House (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2018), Kindle, 142.
2. “urged their CEOs”: Peter Nicholas, Paul Vieira, and Jose de Cordoba, “Why Donald Trump Decided to Back Off NAFTA Threat,” Wall Street Journal, April 17, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-says-nafta-partners-persuaded-him-to-keep-u-s-in-trade-pact-1493320127.
3. “It’s your base”: Woodward, Fear, loc. 156.
4. “For the first year”: Trump interview, November 26, 2018.
5. “Wilbur was delighted”: Stephen A. Schwarzman, What It Takes: Lessons in the Pursuit of Excellence (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2019), Kindle.
6. China Investment Corporation: Lingling Wei, “Trump Trade Reboot Spurs U.S. Push by China’s Sovereign-Wealth Fund,” Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-trade-reboot-spurs-u-s-push-by-chinas-sovereign-wealth-fund-1495022339.
7. “The president changed his mind”: Ross interview, October 2019.
8. “stop being so passive”: Robert E. Lighthizer testimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, June 9, 2010, 28, https://www.uscc.gov/sites/default/files/6.9.10Lighthizer.pdf.
9. “painting of me”: Bob Davis, “Campaign ’96: Lighthizer, Dole’s Idea Man, Attempts to Derail Buchanan with Trade Issue,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 28, 1996.
10. “a powerful tool”: Lighthizer testimony, 23.
11. “take the word ‘China’ out”: We have independent reporting on this incident, thanks to the Atlantic’s Peter Nicholas, who was then with the Wall Street Journal. Bob Woodward in Fear also has an account.
12. “No, we’re not going to”: Lingling Wei, Jacob M. Schlesinger, Jeremy Page, and Michael C. Bender, “U.S. Rebuffs China’s Charm Offensive, Edging Closer to Trade War,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 19, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/beyond-trump-xi-bond-white-house-looks-to-toughen-china-policy-1511124832.
13. “The deal is politically”: Eva Dou, Yoko Kubota, and Trefor Moss, “Something Old, Something New: $250 Billion in U.S.-China Deals Don’t Add Up,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 9, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumped-up-the-250-billion-in-u-s-china-trade-deals-may-not-tally-1510227753.
14. “I told President Trump”: “Remarks by President Trump and President Xi in Joint Press Statement,” Nov. 9, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-president-xi-china-joint-press-statement-beijing-china/.
Chapter 11: Liu He Gets a Lecture, March 2018
1. He shunned big entourages: Interview with David Loevinger, the U.S. Treasury Department’s China coordinator during the first term of the Obama administration, 2018.
2. he was the “authoritative person”: Lingling Wei and Jeremy Page, “Discord Between China’s Top Two Leaders Spills into the Open,” Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/discord-between-chinas-top-two-leaders-spills-into-the-open-1469134110.
3. “He’s not an apologist”: Interview with Myron Brilliant, U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s executive vice president, January 2018.
4. Chinese mills also expanded overseas: Matthew Dalton and Lingling Wei, “How China Skirts America’s Antidumping Tariffs on Steel,” Wall Street Journal, June 4, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-skirts-americas-antidumping-tariffs-on-steel-1528124339.
5. wouldn’t help U.S. industry: Ross interview, October 2019.
6. “We gotta make”: Independent reporting on the Trump pressure on Hassett. Axios also had a version. Mike Allen, “1 Big Thing . . . Trump’s Two-Front War: China and D.C.,” Axios, March 22, 2018.
7. Section 301 report: Section 301 Findings of the Investigation into China’s Acts, Policies, and Practices Related to Technology Transfer, Intellectual Property, and Innovation (Washington, DC: Office of the United States Trade Representative, 2018), https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/Section%20301%20FINAL.PDF.
Chapter 12: American Disarray, May 2018
1. “The Treasury secretary’s job”: Interview with Steven Mnuchin, October 2019.
2. raised by a single mother: Leonard Bernstein, “Underdog Navarro Gets a Boost from Voter Discontent Politics,” Los Angeles Times, April 26, 1992.
3. “The economics of protectionism”: Peter Navarro, The Policy Game: How Special Interests and Ideologues Are Stealing America (New York: Wiley, 1984), 85.
4. “turning point”: Erica Pandey and Jonathan Swan, “Peter Navarro’s Journey from Globalist to Protectionist, in His Own Words,” Axios, June 24, 2018, https://www.axios.com/peter-navarro-globalist-protectionist-china-trade-war-policy-c9822426-aa7c-4706-b1a4-3c16cab63098.html.
5. a pioneer or visionary, rather than a chameleon: Navarro emailed responses.
6. Ron Vara: Tom Bartlett, “Trump’s ‘China Muse’ Has an Imaginary Friend,” Chronicle Review, Oct. 15, 2019, https://www.chronicle.com/interactives/20191015-navarro.
7. “a whimsical device”: Navarro emailed responses.
8. “I take great offense”: Mnuchin interview, October 2019.
9. “This cut-off company’s”: “ZTE Corporation Document Submitted for Ratification (Review) Form,” Aug. 25, 2011, posted by the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security, https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/1438-report-regarding-english/file.
Chapter 13: A Buying Mission, June 2018
1. “I tend not to give up”: Mnuchin interview, October 2019.
2. “All we get to do”: Ross interview, October 2019.
3. “The president’s view”: Mnuchin interview, October 2019.
4. “should bravely employ”: Shepard Goldfein and James Keite, “Chinese Antitrust Enforcement and the U.S.: An Uncertain Path,” New York Law Journal, Aug. 22, 2016.
5. When the trade stuff hit”: William Mauldin, “Trump’s Tariffs Find Friends in Minnesota’s North, Foes in South,” Wall Street Journal, July 18, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-tariffs-find-friends-in-minnesotas-north-foes-in-south-1531906201.
Chapter 14: The Complaint: Chinese Arm-twisting
1. antitrust investigators showed up: Lingling Wei and Bob Davis, “How China Systematically Pries Technology from U.S. Companies,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 26, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-china-systematically-pries-technology-from-u-s-companies-1537972066.
2. “Why do you only”: “Deng Xiaoping Approves Auto Joint Ventures,” Guang’an Daily, April 19, 2018, http://cpc.people.com.cn/n1/2018/0419/c69113-29936354.html.
3. “diffuses beyond the confines”: Kun Jiang, Wolfgang Keller, Larry D. Qiu, and William Ridley, “International Joint Ventures and Internal vs. External Technology Transfer: Evidence from China,” National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2019, https://www.nber.org/papers/w24455.pdf.
4. hardly the first country: Bob Davis and David Wessel, Prosperity (New York: Times Business, 1998), 259.
5. “the only way to achieve growth in China”: “GE China CEO Says China Will Remain Most Relevant Growth Market,” Xinhua, Nov. 8, 2017, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-11/08/content_34271935.htm.
6. “GE was a concern”: Interview with Senator John Cornyn, September 2019.
7. Commerce secretary Ross was convinced: Ross interview, October 2019.
Chapter 15: Old Friends No More, September 2018
1. “The mood has shifted”: Michael Martina, “U.S. Firms No Longer ‘Positive Anchor’ for Beijing Ties: AmCham in China,” Reuters, April 17, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-china/u-s-firms-no-longer-positive-anchor-for-beijing-ties-amcham-in-china-idUSKCN1RT0CA.
2. Beijing increasingly subsidized state-connected firms: Anne Harrison, Marshall Meyer, Peichun Wang, Linda Zhao, and Minyuan Zhao, “Can a Tiger Change Its Stripes? Reform of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises in the Penumbra of the State,” National Bureau of Economic Research, January 2019, http://papers.nber.org/tmp/60993-w25475.pdf.
3. hand-delivered a letter: Kate O’Keeffe, Aruna Viswanatha, and Cezary Podkul, “China’s Pursuit of Fugitive Businessman Guo Wengui Kicks Off Manhattan Caper Worthy of Spy Thriller,” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 22, 2017, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-hunt-for-guo-wengui-a-fugitive-businessman-kicks-off-manhattan-caper-worthy-of-spy-thriller-1508717977.
4. double agent: Aruna Viswanatha and Kate O’Keeffe, “Chinese Tycoon Holed Up in Manhattan Hotel Is Accused of Spying for Beijing,” Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinese-tycoon-holed-up-in-manhattan-hotel-is-accused-of-spying-for-beijing-11563810726.
5. “trying to assure”: Schwarzman, What It Takes.
6. “days of so-called easy money”: Cui interview, October 2018.
7. a “white list”: Trefor Moss, “Power Play: How China-Owned Volvo Avoids Beijing’s Battery Rules,” Wall Street Journal, May 17, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/power-play-how-china-owned-volvo-avoids-beijings-battery-rules-1526551937.
Chapter 16: Couples Therapy, Fall 2018
1. “I disagreed with him”: Trump interview, November 2018.
2. CEOs to commit to traveling to Beijing: Tom Mitchell, “Beijing Summons Wall Street Bankers for Tariff Talks,” Financial Times, Sept. 9, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/c0034cba-b2ca-11e8-99ca-68cf89602132.
3. Xi Jinping convened an emergency Politburo meeting: Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, “‘Bring Me Tariffs’—How Trump and Xi Drove Their Countries to the Brink of a Trade War,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 28, 2018, https://www.wsj.com/articles/bring-me-tariffshow-trump-and-xi-drove-their-countries-to-the-brink-of-a-trade-war-1543420440.
4. “target” or “expectation”: Mnuchin interview, Mornings with Maria, Dec. 4, 2018.
5. “I would certainly intervene”: Jeff Mason and Steve Holland, “Exclusive: Trump Says He Could Intervene in U.S. Case Against Huawei CFO,” Reuters, Dec. 11, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-huawei-tech-exclusive/exclusive-trump-says-he-could-intervene-in-u-s-case-against-huawei-cfo-idUSKBN1OA2PQ.
6. prices Americans paid: Mary Amiti, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein, “Who’s Paying for the U.S. Tariffs? A Longer Term Perspective,” National Bureau of Economic Research, Jan. 2020, http://papers.nber.org/tmp/57953-w26610.pdf.
7. “much bigger problem than China”: Trump interview, November 2018.
8. “one of its leading sources”: Steven J. Davis, “Trade Policy Is Upending markets—but Not Investment,” Chicago Booth Review, March 18, 2019, https://review.chicagobooth.edu/economics/2019/article/trade-policy-upending-markets-not-investment.
9. “benchmark of success”: Freakonomics radio interview with Gary Cohn, March 13, 2019, http://freakonomics.com/podcast/cohn/.
Chapter 17: Ping-Pong Diplomacy, January 2019
1. “without the Treasury secretary”: Interview with Larry Kudlow, October 2019.
2. “We’ve got to be realistic”: Lingling Wei, Jeremy Page, and Bob Davis, “U.S.-China Trade Talks Hit a Bump,” Wall Street Journal, March 8, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-trade-deal-isnt-imminent-ambassador-branstad-says-11552031163.
3. “the U.S. is desperate right now”: Cohn, Freakonomics interview, March 2019.
Chapter 18: Bring Your Companies Home, August 2019
1. Beijing published an 8,300-word white paper: Xinhua, “China Publishes White Paper on Trade Consultations, Revealing U.S. Backtracking,” June 2, 2019, http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2019-06/02/c_138110738.htm.
2. Their index of trade risks: Tarek A. Hassan, Stephan Hollander, Laurence van Lent, and Ahmed Tahoun, “Firm-Level Political Risk: Measurement and Effects,” National Bureau of Economic Research, June 2019, https://www.nber.org/papers/w24029.pdf.
3. reduced global GDP by 0.8 percent: Dario Caldara, Matteo Iacoviello, Patrick Molligo, Andrea Prestipino, and Andrea Raffo, “Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Global Economic Activity?,” FEDS Notes, Sept. 2019.
4. actively courting foreign firms: Yoko Kubota and Chao Deng, “China Faces Limited Options for Retaliating Against Latest U.S. Threat,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 2, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-faces-limited-options-for-retaliating-against-latest-u-s-threat-11564750795.
5. “We’re being uninvited to bid”: Richard Waters, “How the Trade War Is Damaging the US Tech Industry,” Financial Times, Aug. 16, 2019, https://www.ft.com/content/16fa93ba-bf69-11e9-b350-db00d509634e.
6. Beijing said it would create: Yoko Kubota, “China Studying Tech Companies’ Exposure to U.S. Suppliers,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 29, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-studying-tech-companies-exposure-to-u-s-suppliers-11567078489.
7. “the talks were going unsatisfactorily”: Kudlow interview, October 2019.
8. “beyond crazy”: Interview with Robert Lighthizer, September 2019.
9. “call for talks was approved”: Kudlow interview, October 2019.
Chapter 19: Negotiating a Truce, December 2019- January 2020 -
1. “the KGB build all our telecom”: Interview with Matt Pottinger, November 2019.
2. The setbacks fed quiet criticism of Xi: Chun Han Wong and Jeremy Page, “For China’s Xi, the Hong Kong Crisis Is Personal,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 27, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/for-chinas-xi-the-hong-kong-crisis-is-personal-11569613304.
3. “It’s more than half full”: Interview with Myron Brilliant, U.S. Chamber of Commerce executive vice president.
4. Chinese officials tried again to narrow the scope: Lingling Wei, Chao Deng, and Josh Zumbrun, “China Seeks to Narrow Trade Talks with U.S. in Bid to Break Deadlock,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 12, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-seeks-to-narrow-trade-talks-with-u-s-in-bid-to-break-deadlock-11568284169.
5. from European firms: Asa Fitch and Dan Strumpf, “Huawei Manages to Make Smartphones Without American Chips,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 1, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/huawei-manages-to-make-smartphones-without-american-chips-11575196201?mod=hp_lead_pos1.
6. $75 billion in state support: Chuin-Wei Yap, “State Support Helped Fuel Huawei’s Global Rise,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 25, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/state-support-helped-fuel-huaweis-global-rise-11577280736
7. “passionate defender”: Shawn Donnan and Jenny Donard, “How Trump’s Trade War Went from Method to Madness,” Bloomberg Businessweek, Nov. 14, 2019, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-11-14/how-trump-s-trade-war-went-from-method-to-madness.
8. “the president had been briefed”: Kudlow interview, October 2019.
9. They calculated that their offer: Bob Davis and Lingling Wei, “How the U.S. and China Settled on a Trade Deal Neither Wanted,” Jan. 13, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-the-u-s-and-china-settled-on-a-trade-deal-neither-wanted-11578931635.
10. “Think in terms of what will happen”: Davis and Wei, “How the U.S. and China.”
11. “Globalists!”: Alex Leary, “In the Battles Over Trump’s Trade Wars, Hawkish Adviser Navarro Endures,” Wall Street Journal, Dec. 21, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-the-battles-over-trumps-trade-wars-hawkish-adviser-navarro-endures-11576943074.
12. “It’s good”: Davis and Wei, “How the U.S. and China.”
13. China had already: World Bank, “Doing Business 2020,” Oct. 24, 2019, https://www.doingbusiness.org.
14. Xi Jinping came under: Lingling Wei and Chao Deng, “China’s Coronavirus Response Is Questioned: ‘Everyone Was Blindly Optimistic,’” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 24, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-contends-with-questions-over-response-to-viral-outbreak-11579825832.
15. Looking to muffle: Lingling Wei, “China Strains to Stamp Out Coronavirus Criticisms at Home,” Wall Street Journal, Jan. 28, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-strains-to-stamp-out-coronavirus-criticisms-at-home-11580207403.
16. On February 19: Wall Street Journal, “China Expels Three Wall Street Journal Reporters,” Feb. 19, 2020, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-expels-three-wall-street-journal-reporters-11582100355.
17. “not going to stop subsidizing state-run”: Kudlow interview, October 2019.
18. “Impeachment is irrelevant”: Mnuchin interview, October 2019.
19. “The press has a very hard time”: Pottinger interview, November 2019.
20. “an impact on the election”: Mnuchin interview, October 2019.
21. close to nil: Chao Deng and Lingling Wei, “China Emerges with Wins from U.S. Trade Truce,” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 12, 2019, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-emerges-with-wins-from-u-s-trade-truce-11570912439?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=10&mod=article_inline.
22. “You can start the process of reform”: Lighthizer interview, September 2019.
Chapter 20: Looking Ahead: Cold War II
1. fell by 25 percent: Alessandro Nicita, “Trade and Trade Diversion Effects of United States Tariffs on China,” United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Research Paper No. 37, November 2019, 5, https://unctad.org/en/PublicationsLibrary/ser-rp-2019d9_en.pdf.
2. fell more than 60 percent: Patrick Van den Bossche, Brooks Levering, and Yuri Castano, “U.S. Trade Policy and Reshoring: The Real Impact of America’s New Trade Policies,” A. T. Kearney, 2019, 8, https://www.atkearney.com/operations-performance-transformation/us-reshoring-index.
3. China as the top threat: Laura Silver, Kat Devlin, and Christine Huang, “U.S. Views of China Turn Sharply Negative Amid Trade Tensions,” Pew Research Center Global Attitudes & Trends, Aug. 13, 2019, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/2019/08/13/u-s-views-of-china-turn-sharply-negative-amid-trade-tensions/.
4. “President Trump has unmasked”: Kudlow interview, October 2019.
5. “Regime change”: Lighthizer interview, September 2019.
6. outweighed the gains: Pablo D. Fajgelbaum, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Patrick J. Kennedy, and Amit K. Khandelwal, “The Return to Protectionism,” National Bureau of Economic Research, October 2019, https://www.nber.org/papers/w25638.pdf.
7. raised the wholesale price: Mary Amiti, Stephen J. Redding, and David Weinstein, “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare,” National Bureau of Economic Research, March 2019, https://www.nber.org/papers/w25672.pdf.
8. data from 151 countries: Davide Furceri, Swarnali A. Hannan, Jonathan D. Ostry, and Andrew K. Rose, “Macroeconomic Consequences of Tariffs,” IMF Working Paper, January 2019, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/01/15/Macroeconomic-Consequences-of-Tariffs-46469.
9. cost average U.S. households: Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, “Trading Tariffs and Playing with Fire,” JP Morgan Equity Strategy and Quantitative Research, June 7, 2019.
10. U.S. tariffs hurt far more than they helped: Aaron Flaaen and Justin Pierce, “Disentangling the Effects of the 2018–2019 Tariffs on a Globally Connected U.S. Manufacturing Sector,” Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-086, Federal Reserve System, Dec. 23, 2019, 3, https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2019086pap.pdf.
11. 63 percent were replaced by imports from elsewhere: Nicita, “Trade Diversion,” 11.
12. “Lower scores lead to the opposite”: “The Digital Hand: How China’s Corporate Social Credit System Conditions Market Actors,” European Chamber of Commerce in China, Aug. 28, 2019, 1, https://www.europeanchamber.com.cn/en/publications-archive/709/The_Digital_Hand_How_China_s_Corporate_Social_Credit_System_Conditions_Market_Actors.
13. The corporate system is similar: Josh Chin and Gillian Wong, “China’s New Tool for Social Control: A Credit Rating for Everything,” Wall Street Journal, Nov. 28, 2016, https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-new-tool-for-social-control-a-credit-rating-for-everything-1480351590.
14. According to a study: Scott Kennedy and Daniel H. Rosen, “Market Metrics: A Fact-Based Approach to the Chinese Economic Challenge,” CSIS, Oct. 10, 2019, https://www.csis.org/analysis/market-metrics-fact-based-approach-chinese-economic-challenge.
15. Chinese chip makers receive far more government support: “Measuring Distortions in International Markets: The Semiconductor Value Chain,” OECD Trade Policy Papers, No. 234, December 2019, http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/8fe4491d-en.
16. “we don’t let them veto doing things”: Lighthizer interview, September 2019.
17. “Beijing’s outreach to third countries”: Matthew P. Goodman, William Alan Reinsch, and Scott Kennedy, “Beyond the Brink,” Center for Strategic & International Studies, September 2019, 62, https://www.csis.org/analysis/beyond-brink-escalation-and-conflict-us-china-economic-relations.
18. “moonshots”: Initially recommended at the end of the Obama administration in “Ensuring Long-Term U.S. Leadership in Semiconductors,” President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology, January 2017, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/PCAST/pcast_ensuring_long-term_us_leadership_in_semiconductors.pdf. More recently picked up in “Innovation and National Security: Keeping Our Edge,” Council on Foreign Relations, September 2019, https://www.cfr.org/report/keeping-our-edge/. Also in Charles W. Boustany Jr. and Aaron L. Friedberg, “Partial Disengagement: A New U.S. Strategy for Economic Competition with China,” National Bureau of Asian Research, November 2019, https://www.nbr.org/wp-content/uploads/pdfs/publications/sr82_china-task-force-report-final.pdf.