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SHOULD YOU GO TO COLLEGE?
Should you go now?
It depends.
College graduates have higher salaries and lower unemployment rates than non-graduates. Graduates also enjoy better mental and physical health, better exercise habits, higher rates of voting and volunteering, and longer lives [70-72]. Policymakers and parents, seeing these numbers, have encouraged more and more high school graduates to go to college.
But as we saw earlier, the more college degrees are awarded, the less valuable they are in the labor market. Pumping more college graduates into the economy doesn’t magically make more jobs spring up to meet them. A bachelor’s degree does not guarantee a high income. As educational attainment has increased in the United States, so has the proportion of poor people with degrees [19, 20]. Around ten percent of the people living in poverty today in the United States have bachelor’s degrees or higher, and around five percent of people with bachelor’s degrees or higher live in poverty [19].
Simply comparing the outcomes of graduates and non-graduates doesn’t reveal why college graduates have better job outcomes. Do universities simply select people who would make good employees and filter out those who wouldn’t? Or would a given individual do better in life with a college degree than without one? It’s impossible to run a truly randomized experiment in an ethical way. Two unethical ways you could answer this question would be to either (a) find a group of college-bound students and randomly bar half of them from higher education, or (b) take a group of non-degree-holders and randomly award half of them degrees from a reputable university.
It’s unlikely that either of those studies will be done, so researchers do their best to work around their limitations. They might compare students who are just above or below a cutoff point, or use detailed survey data to try to adjust for selection bias.
The studies that have been done suggest that on average the college degree pays for itself eventually, and on average some college is better than no college [32, 73, 74]. This is good news for a lot of people; fewer than sixty percent of full-time, first-time students complete their four-year degrees within six years [9].
Major matters
The areas of study that lead to the best-paid jobs are concentrated in engineering, computer science, business, and health care [75, 76]. By contrast, the earning power of a completed arts or humanities degree is equivalent to not finishing college. The average man who goes to an expensive college for an arts degree won’t see his additional earnings equal his college costs until age 54; the average woman with a fancy arts degree will never break even in her lifetime [32].
But averages hide a lot of variation, and don’t take into account people’s different motivations for attending college.
What do you want from college?
If you want a lucrative career, keep in mind that the best-paid occupations are those where you manage people, manage data, or manage money. Attending a brand-name school is great if you have the opportunity, but remember that for undergraduate degrees, your major is generally more important than your alma mater. A business major from a top university will earn more than a business major from a non-selective university; but the business major from a non-selective university will earn more than an education major from a top university [77]. If you think business is boring and you want to follow your passion for early childhood education or counseling psychology, make sure you can afford it.
If you have your heart set on a particular school, don’t be afraid to network. Spread the word that you are interested, and you might find that someone you know has a connection to your dream school. A good recommendation from a booster, faculty member or former student can make a difference.
Will you graduate?
To see the probability of someone with your characteristics graduating in 4, 5, and 6 years, see HERI’s Graduation Rate Calculator, based on over 200,000 first-time, full-time college students: heri.ucla.edu/GradRateCalculator.php.
Your probability of completing college is higher if these apply to you [78]:
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You were reading by the 3rd grade |
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You were absent less than 10% of the time in high school |
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You failed no more than one class in ninth grade |
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You took college classes in high school |
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You did a summer bridge program |
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You completed calculus in high school |
Even for those who complete college, the lifetime returns to a four-year college degree can vary. Higher education is not exactly a great equalizer: those from low-income backgrounds have a return to a college degree of up to $500,000 (which is not too bad), while the college premium for graduates from high-income backgrounds is close to $1.4 million. The best-paying jobs accrue to those who are already more advantaged:
Individuals who earn a graduate degree, are white or male, or come from a family with income above 400 percent of the poverty line, are much more likely to achieve very high earnings than similar individuals from a low-income family... whose earnings boost from college is particularly small. [79:27].
Is it ever not worth it to go to college? Personally, I believe that education has value in itself, and that the knowledge and critical thinking tools acquired in the course of a college education make life more meaningful and enjoyable. However, as far as financial return, college doesn’t “pay off” for everyone. About a quarter of college graduates earn no more than those with a high school diploma [80].
What if your chances don’t look good?
Let’s say you’ve estimated that your chances of graduating from college are low, but you still want to go. What can you do to maximize your chances of getting through without drowning in debt?
If you want to avoid getting lost in the crowd, choose a school where undergraduate education is the top priority.
How can you tell whether undergraduate education is a priority?
Typically, an undergraduate-focused school will say their mission is based on Liberal Arts or a Liberal Education. These schools don’t need to be expensive; check out the Council of Public Liberal Arts Colleges at coplac.org. The term “liberal arts” refers to the traditional disciplines in a university: arts and sciences, as opposed to vocational education. A liberal arts –focused university has come to mean one that is mostly residential, emphasizes experimentation and intellectual growth, and represents undergraduate education at its best [81].
Research-oriented universities tend to be high-profile and highly selective. As their name implies, they are focused on producing research, not on teaching undergraduates. Visit carnegieclassifications.iu.edu/lookup/lookup.php and look up the university you’re considering. If you see the classification Doctoral Universities: Highest Research Activity, you may want to eliminate that institution from your list for now. A research university is a great place to go for graduate school. But undergraduate education is not prioritized or rewarded at R1 institutions [82], and a struggling student is not likely to get a lot of support.
Once you’ve selected a few schools of interest, see whether you can talk to someone in Admissions. (If you can’t get anyone to talk to you or call you back, cross the school off your list.) Ask what percentage of classes are fewer than 20 students (the best size for student success and persistence) and more than 50 (the worst) [83].
Ask what kinds of support programs you can join. Many schools have programs for first-generation, low-income, or other groups. Some schools offer summer bridge programs for the transition from high school to college; these are highly recommended.
Stay away from for-profits
Do not attend a for-profit institution. For-profits exist to funnel student loan money into their investors’ pockets, and they are very good at that. Graduates of for-profits earn no more than high school graduates, and in some cases the relationship to earnings is negative [84]. Students who attend for-profits have more debt, higher rates of default, and worse job market outcomes compared to those who attend nonprofit schools [85].
To find not-for-profit institutions, you can use the College Scorecard at collegescorecard.ed.gov. Under “Advanced Search,” make sure Private For-Profit is unchecked. You can also look up individual institutions at carnegieclassifications.iu.edu.
