I have no problem allowing my e-coach athletes, who’ve run one or more races at a given distance, to choose a goal time that is faster than that predicted by the MM at the beginning of a six-month program. As you do the speed training, the long runs, and your MMs, you should improve…but how much? In my experience this leap of faith should not exceed 5 %. More commonly, the speed-up is in the 3 % range.
Run the MM time trial.
Use the formula presented previously to predict the pace you could run now, if you were in perfect shape for your race.
Choose the amount of improvement during the training program (3-5 %).
Subtract this improvement amount from #2—this is your goal time.
How much of a leap of faith? | ||
Pre-racing season prediction (over a 5- to 6-month training program) | 3 % improvement | 5 % improvement |
7:00 per mile pace | 6:47 | 6:39 |
8:00 per mile pace | 7:45 | 7:36 |
9:00 per mile pace | 8:43 | 8:33 |
10:00 per mile pace | 9:42 | 9:30 |
11:00 per mile pace | 10:40 | 10:27 |
Finish time improvement Pre-season marathon or half prediction | 3 % | 5 % |
3:00 | 2:54:36 | 2:51:00 |
3:30 | 2:23:42 | 3:20:00 |
4:00 | 3:52:48 | 3:48:00 |
The key to goal setting is keeping your ego in check—and the goal pressure and stress reduced. From my experience, I have found that a 3 % improvement is more realistic. This means that if your marathon or half marathon time is predicted to be 3:00, then it is realistic to assume you could lower it by five and a half minutes if you do the speed training and the long runs as noted on my training schedules in this book. The maximum improvement, which is less likely, is a more aggressive 5 % or 9 minutes off a three-hour marathon.
In both of these situations, however, everything must come together to produce the predicted result. Even a runner who shoots for a 3 % improvement, does all the training as described, achieves his or her goal slightly more than 50 % of the time during a racing season. The more aggressive performances usually result in success about 20 % of the time. There are many factors that influence your finish time in a race that are outside of your control—weather, terrain, infection, for example. Because of all the variables on race day, it often takes three to four races during a season to achieve success. Don’t give up!