On the road with the Red Sox at Safeco Field in Seattle.
Photo by Corey Sandler
C H A P T E R T W E N T Y - F O U R
Over more than a century of organized baseball, the basic strategy for constructing a lineup has not changed all that much, except for the addition of the designated hitter in the American League.
There are a number of elements that go into making up the lineup, including the ability to get on base, speed, and power. And many managers like to do things like alternating left-handed and right-handed batters if they have good ones available; that makes it tougher for the opposing manager to make pitching changes late in the game.
The most basic statistics to watch for a hitter are batting average, home runs, and runs batted in. But they rarely tell the whole story. In today’s game many general managers and some coaches are very much into all kinds of other stats, including on-base percentage. Among the latest stats is OPS, which is a combination of on-base percentage and slugging percentage.
Let’s define some of the more common statistics:
Batting average (AVG). This is the simplest to measure, calculated by dividing total hits by the number of at bats. A player is not charged with an at bat if he walks or makes a sacrifice hit. So the formula for batting average is AVG = H ÷ AB.
On-base percentage (OBP). OBP is a measure of how often a batter reaches base. It is calculated by totaling hits, walks (BB), and times hit by a pitch (HBP), then dividing by total plate appearances, including at bats, walks, sacrifice flies, and times hit by a pitch. The formula is OBP = (H + BB + HBP) ÷ (AB + BB + SF + HBP).
Slugging percentage (SLG). Slugging percentage is a measure of total offensive production, emphasizing the relative value of extra-base hits over singles. It begins with a calculation of total bases with this formula: TB = 1B + (2 x 2B) + (3 x 3B) + (4 x HR). In this formula 1B means singles; 2B, doubles; and 3B, triples. Then total bases are divided by at bats. Thus, the formula for slugging percentage is SLG = TB ÷ AB.
OPS. OPS is a relatively new way of looking at offensive production; this is a total of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. The formula is OPS = OBP + SLG.
OPS seems to hold up pretty well. The all-time career leader for OPS is a guy by the name of Babe Ruth, with a 1.1636 rating. The single-season record for OPS was set in 2002 by Barry Bonds with a 1.3807 rating, a few ten-thousandths of a percentage above Ruth’s one-season best. In 2003 Bonds slipped just a bit to an OPS for the season of 1.278.
Throughout its history baseball has been a game of statistics, but they are not the whole story. Managers also have to know the individual accomplishments of the players. A player who may deliver a few more home runs, RBIs, and a better on-base percentage may not be as good for the team as a guy with lesser numbers who has the heart of a lion. A manager may rather go to war with that guy than with the big slugger.
Anytime you talk about a great player, you’ve got to look past his numbers on paper and ask some questions. When do those numbers come? Are they coming at key times in a game? Are they coming in blowouts? Are they coming against lousy teams?
“Jerry was an igniter, which is what you want from a leadoff guy. He knew how to get things going. And he used every ounce in his body to help the team get a win. When he rolled, we rolled.”
FORMER RE SOX STAR OUTFIELDER JIM RICE
Who gets that big hit late in the game when the team is down by a couple of runs? Who is the guy who has great stats but has to take a day or two off each week?
What about the guy whose stats might not be as good but who is going to go out and give everything he has every time he’s in the game?
Some players are criticized for having a relatively low on-base percentage, but getting on base might not be their primary role.
The key is to see how to fit a good player into the right spot in the lineup.
The ideal leadoff hitter has good speed and a high on-base percentage. That usually means a player who can hit well, bunt, earn a walk, take lots of pitches, and run once he’s on base.
Teams love a leadoff hitter with a high on-base percentage because he is likely to come up to bat five times in the game; managers want their best hitters at the top of the lineup, so those hitters get up as many times in a game as they can.
If a manager has a leadoff hitter who regularly gets on base and can run, he wants a number two hitter who is a contact hitter, can bunt, and can work the hit-and-run. A good contact hitter can move the ball the other way, so if there’s a runner on second, he can move him over.
Ideal is a guy who is comfortable going to two strikes so that he can give the leadoff hitter a chance to steal.
Teams may bat their best overall hitter third; on the Red Sox in recent years that spot has belonged to David Ortiz. Like the first two batters, he should be expected to get on base in front of the power guys behind him. But he also should be able to drive in some runs.
Sometimes it comes down to how a player is hitting at the moment. If a strong hitter is struggling for a while as the cleanup hitter, the manager may move him up to bat third. When he gets hot again, he may move back to fourth in the lineup.
The fourth man in the batting order, the cleanup hitter, is supposed to clean the bases. This is usually the place for the most reliable run producer, someone who drives in a lot of runs.
An RBI leader usually—but not always—has a pretty good batting average and good power. At his peak Manny Ramírez is among the best. In 2007 Manny battled some injuries; he managed to turn himself around and start banging the ball just when it counted—at the end of the season and into and through the World Series.
The fifth man in the lineup is just a tad below the cleanup man as a hitter. He may not maintain as high a batting average, but he may hit with more power.
One of his most important roles is as protection for the number four hitter; having a strong hitter in the fifth slot may convince the other manager not to intentionally walk or pitch around the cleanup hitter. Mike Lowell filled this role with great skill in 2007, leading the team in RBIs.
In general, production slips a little bit as you go down the batting order. But the sixth hitter should still be a guy who can do damage with one swing of the bat.
I don’t want to degrade guys hitting seventh and eighth, but let’s face it: If they were better hitters, they would be hitting at the top of the lineup.
Now here comes a difference between the leagues: In the National League the eighth batter is probably not a great hitter, but he might lead the team in intentional walks, because the other team will often walk him to get to the pitcher if it makes sense in the game situation.
In the National League, the ninth position is usually held by the pitcher, and he is generally considered an automatic out. Take a look at the batting averages: Many pitchers are down around .100, meaning they make an out roughly nine out of every ten times they come up to the plate.
When he came to the National League after a long career as an AL manager, Tony La Russa experimented with having the pitcher bat eighth and a better hitter come up ninth. I think what he was trying to do is make his ninth batter like a leadoff hitter, so by the time he got to his power guys—like Mark McGwire at the time—the bases could have a lot of runners on them.
In the American League, with the designated hitter, some managers like to do the same sort of thing, putting someone with a bit of punch and speed in the ninth spot in hopes of setting the table.
From the player’s point of view, there’s a lot to be said for a lineup that remains the same through whole stretches of the season, except for the occasional injury or scheduled day off. That used to be the case with many managers, including Ralph Houk and Don Zimmer; players could walk in and not even have to look at the lineup card.
There is more changing of the lineup now from day to day because there is more data available to managers. They will adjust their lineup based on who is pitching and the success individual players have had against him.
Another reason is the increased use of platooning: sharing one position between two players, usually with one batting against right-handed pitchers and the other against lefties. I’ve seen situations in which you may have two players for right field, and if you combine their numbers, they are as good or better than an everyday player.
Platooning works when a pair of players has different but complementary strengths or weaknesses against certain types of pitchers. And ideally, they are equally capable on defense. If you have one player who is a complete stiff defensively and he costs you games because of his defense, it is not a platoon situation.
That said, nobody wants to be a platoon player. Pro ballplayers want to be in the game every day.
I like the designated hitter. I always have.
Baseball purists will tell you that there’s so much more strategy in the National League where pitchers hit. That’s true, but I just don’t find it exciting to watch a pitcher come to the plate; even when he gets a hit it doesn’t excite me.
The sacrifice play also does not thrill me. You may be down five runs in a game and here is the pitcher up to bat, and all the manager can ask for is a sacrifice.
Pitchers are so valuable, especially in today’s game where talent is a bit thin. If I was a manager, I would not want to take a chance with Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling, or Daisuke Matsuzaka being hit by a pitch and losing him for the season.
I think a pitcher is a pitcher. I am not saying that all of them lack the ability to hit, but I don’t want to take the risk of having him go to the plate, and I hate the fact that most of them are an automatic out. (And yes, I know Matsuzaka got a key hit in Game 3 of the 2007 World Series. I still would have preferred to have seen David Ortiz as DH and Kevin Youkilis at first base.)
One of the arguments against the DH rule is that because the pitcher doesn’t come up to bat there is no way to retaliate for a brushback or a beanball. That’s a legitimate point.
If a pitcher doesn’t have to go to the plate, he may feel free to drill somebody because he knows he won’t have to pay the price personally. But on the other hand, one of his teammates may face retribution from the other team’s pitcher or an infielder.
In the National League they police themselves a bit more because the pitchers do have to hit. Then again we don’t have brawls in baseball every week.
Despite the difference in the rule, there was not that much difference between the two leagues in 2007. For the season Daisuke Matsuzaka led the Boston pitching staff with thirteen hit-batsmen; no one has accused him of being a headhunter—he does pitch inside and nibbles at the plate. The AL leader for the season was Justin Verlander with nineteen plunks. Over in the National League, the top of the list was held by Byung-Hyun Kim of the Florida Marlins, hitting sixteen batters.
A related problem with the DH is the fact that the two leagues operate under different rules. I think that is dumb.
That’s one reason I particularly don’t like interleague play. Management builds the team to play in their league and division, and then they’ve got to play eighteen or twenty games against unfamiliar opponents. When an AL team is in an NL ballpark, they’ve got to take their designated hitter out of the lineup and slap the pitcher in there. If he’s been in the American League all his career, he has little or no experience in hitting or bunting at the major league level.
It becomes a joke. You see American League pitchers laugh when they are up to bat, laugh when they strike out, and laugh when they get a hit. I think the American League is at a tremendous disadvantage when that happens.
The other reason I don’t like interleague play is that I think it takes something away from the World Series and the All-Star Game. Years ago there was a pride in your league when you went to the All-Star Game. That doesn’t mean that the games were always played with 100 percent intensity, but it was the National League against the American League. When I was an All-Star in 1978, I recall the president of the league giving us a speech about how important this was to win for the American League.
It is a little tougher to do that now that everybody is kind of mixed together during the season. But the fans like it. They have responded to it pretty well. They like seeing teams come in that they don’t ordinarily see.
The ideal utility player is a guy who can play three or more different positions; for example, an infielder who can fill in at shortstop, second, and third. They’re not great players with extraordinary range and abilities, though. If they were stars they would be put in the lineup every day. What you are hoping for is a player who will not hurt you defensively; anything they can give you on offense is a plus.
The everyday player is going to remain in shape all season, but the utility player who doesn’t play consistently has to work a little bit harder during the pregame to keep his body in shape. It’s also hard for him because he doesn’t get to see much live pitching. Batting practice is not the same as facing live pitching.
Perhaps the most difficult thing someone on the bench has to deal with is the fact that he’s not an everyday player. Anybody worth his salt wants to be in the lineup. They’ve got to realize that for most of them, they are best off being utility players. It is going to keep them in the big leagues a lot longer than if they were trying to hold down a position every day.
A young kid who comes up from Triple A was probably a starter in the minors, and then in the majors only gets into a few innings per week. The young guy wants to make his mark, to get in the game, show them he can play, and make his money. Going from being an everyday player in the minors to sitting on the bench is hard.
It seems to me that the veteran near the end of his career becomes a better utility player once he accepts the fact that he can’t play every day anymore. Alex Cora showed a lot of class as a bench player for Boston in 2007, playing very well at second base or shortstop when needed and contributing some key hits as well. And he never groused about it.