WHAT KIND OF PROPHECY IS POSSIBLE?

“The one with the power to vanquish the Dark Lord approaches … Born to those who have thrice defied him, born as the seventh month dies … And the Dark Lord will mark him as his equal, but he will have power the Dark Lord knows not … And either must die at the hand of the other for neither can live while the other survives”—Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix

“If we have learned one thing from the history of invention and discovery, it is that, in the long run—and often in the short one—the most daring prophecies seem laughably conservative” —Arthur C. Clarke, The Exploration of Space (1954)

In the Harry Potter Universe, a prophecy was a prediction made by a Seer. The Seer, a gifted wizard or witch who was able to see into the future, would begin reciting the prophecy involuntarily, and would then go into a type of trance, while speaking strangely in a changed voice. The record of such a prophecy was then kept in a spun-glass orb and known, appropriately enough, as a prophecy record. The prophecy orbs, spherical objects that seemed to contain clouds of swirling mist, were kept in the Hall of Prophecies, housed within the Department of Mysteries. Only those members of wizard kind mentioned in the prophecy were allowed to remove that record from the Hall. Many prophecy records were destroyed in the Battle of the Department of Mysteries.

One of the most prominent Seers was Professor Sybill Trelawney. The Head of the Divination at Hogwarts School, Trelawney’s first recorded prophecy was witnessed by Albus Dumbledore. The prophecy foretold the birth of a wizard who would be able, though by no means guaranteed, of defeating Lord Voldemort. The prophecy went on to say that Voldemort would mark this young wizard as his equal, and that either the young wizard, or Voldemort, would eventually kill the other. This boy, of course, was shown to be Harry Potter. Harry knew nothing of the prophecy until Dumbledore told him the tale, after the Battle of the Department of Mysteries. The prophecy proved to be very prescient. But what of prophecy in the muggle world? Is it possible? And, if not, what’s the closest we can come to prophecy?

Muggle Prophecy

In the muggle world, prophecy belongs, if anywhere, to science. Science is different than other intellectual disciplines, such as the humanities, art, or religion. Science revolves around its practical application. Science is a discipline concerned with how things are done, and how outcomes can be predicted from practice.

Think of science as a recipe for doing things. Science shows you how to carry out certain tasks, should you need to do them, and what will happen when you do so. There’s great power in this simple philosophy. It is fundamentally a philosophy of matter in motion, an account of nature and society from below rather than above. It is a philosophy that realizes the power of change through getting to know nature’s ground rules.

Think also of the way in which science has evolved. History shows a distinct sequence of the emergence of its different disciplines. The order is usually: mathematics, astronomy, mechanics, physics, chemistry, and biology. The origin and development of this sequence lies in the concern with practical techniques to provide for human needs. This developmental time sequence of the sciences is fascinating. It appears to fit very well to the patterns of social advance. Notice how the sequence corresponds quite closely to the practical uses that were expected, if not demanded, of science by ruling classes at different times.

In ancient times, science derived from the techniques that arose from our concern with nature. For example, from the beginning of recorded history and the development of surplus, mathematics arose out of the need to make calculations relating to taxation and commerce, or to measure land. Observations of the sky were used to determine the seasons, an important factor in knowing when to plant crops, as well as in understanding the length of the year. These priestly functions gave rise to astronomy, of course.

Only much later did humans develop a fascination with the control of inanimate forces of physics. The demands of the new textile industry, the interest of the emerging manufacturers of the 18th century, gave rise to chemistry. The more complex sciences, such as medicine and biology, were developed through the study of the subject itself, with practically no input from the simpler sciences, like mechanics. Revolutionary discovery led the way in all these fields of science.

When we consider detailed examples of these sequences of discovery, other general trends tend to occur. In any specific discipline, a series of associated findings can be identified. The chain of events usually begins with an unexpected and revolutionary discovery, the coming together of fields previously thought unrelated, and ending up with an entirely new field of science. Hardly prophecy.

Consider the case of the Newtonian “System of the World”. This was Isaac Newton’s theory of everything, associated with the development of the theory of universal gravitation, in the late 17th century. The long chain of events leading to Newton’s work began at least a century before with Copernicus’ revolutionary proposal of the sun-centered planetary system. This led to the coming together of Galileo’s experiments in terrestrial dynamics with Kepler’s celestial mechanics, and ended up with Newton’s synthesis of the new mechanical worldview of the universe, a worldview that was to dominate physics until the early 20th century.

Newton’s worldview was that of a clockwork universe. Physics became regarded as the ultimate explanatory science: phenomena of any kind, it was believed, could be explained in terms of mechanics, and the cosmos was as a perfect machine, which was essentially open to prediction. The laws of mechanics, it was thought, could tell you exactly where Jupiter would be a week next Wednesday. And yet muggles soon discovered chaos is the law of nature, and order the dream of man.

Physics is fine if you wish to describe planets in orbit, spaceships sailing to Saturn, that kind of thing. But there are some aspects of nature that physics predicts badly. Turbulence is one such example. The air racing around a jet’s wing. Blood coursing through the heart. Or even climate change. The behavior of complex systems like weather and climate is hard to model. Even if you could understand it, you still couldn’t make precise predictions. Weather prediction is almost impossible. And that’s because the system’s behavior is acutely dependent on initial conditions, and tiny differences become hugely amplified.

Chaos is not just random and unpredictable. Because of the myriad tiny imperfections implicit to complex systems, tiny nuances soon start to make a difference. Soon enough the imperfections overpower your careful calculations, and even simple systems show unpredictable behavior. So, in fact, it turns out you can’t really predict more than a few seconds into the future.