David Bower was nervous. Over many months now he had been researching some of the wider aspects of the effects of climate change and what, if anything, could be done about it. His conclusions were radical and drastic. David, though graying, was a slim, fit man. Not tall at five foot nine, but giving the impression of intense energy. On this occasion, he had dressed in a neat pair of grey flannel trousers and a jacket. Chloe had persuaded him to dispense with the tie, knowing their children would be wearing jeans and tee shirts when they arrived for dinner. He kept himself fit with regular runs, the occasional session in the gym, and golf. He was well liked by business associates for his forthrightness and honesty and, above all, his calmness under even intense pressure.
David sat for half an hour on the deck of his large house enjoying the warmth. He stared unseeingly into the bushland opposite. A large gathering of lorikeets were squawking and squabbling over the birdseed David had spread over a small table in the garden. A pair of king parrots looked nervously on from the safety of a nearby melaleuca tree, waiting their turn.
Not long after their engagement, Chloe had excitedly driven him to this very place, then an empty piece of land. David had tried not to show his enthusiasm by commenting on the steepness of the site. However, he agreed to talk to one of the builders he dealt with regularly once Chloe told him she had already asked an architect to have a look at what could be built there.
David had been concerned. 'I'll have to work through our finances. I've only had a year with the business, albeit a successful one.' With partners, he had started his own business about the time he had met Chloe.
'I'll go on working,' Chloe had offered, 'but this place is perfect. It's close to the city. If we do it right, we'll never have to move again.'
David thought back to that conversation, more than thirty years later. We may indeed have to move if what I have concluded comes to pass. 'I'm sure I'm right, but I wish to hell I wasn't,' he said aloud. He shuddered when thinking of his son Mark and his beautiful wife, obviously intending to take themselves to the very top. They will dismiss the very idea of climate change.
He emerged from his reverie when Chloe called him from the kitchen, asking him to help set the table. His daughter Patricia and her husband Joe, now in their early thirties, had arrived. Their eight year old daughter Kim was already headstrong unlike their son Jason, who was gentle and thoughtful at five.
Patricia bustled in. She liked to have them fed and in bed early, giving David an opportunity, if there was time, to read to them and tuck them up. Patricia had steadfastly resisted any thought of returning to work. 'It's more important to bring the children up properly. And I do help with mum's charities,' she added, when challenged by some of her more ambitious friends.
Joe and Patricia were committed environmentalists. Joe had a well-paid position as an accountant with a large retail operation in Sydney. 'I'm not sure I can see myself bean-counting for this lot for the next thirty or so years,' he had confided in David on a previous occasion. 'I really need something more fulfilling. We do provide a service, but it's not exactly saving humanity.'
Jonathan, their youngest at eighteen, was still living at home. He bustled in announcing that he was due to go out later to listen to some obscure band in Kings Cross. While he tried to give the appearance of non-conformity, when asked what he was going to do with his life, his stock answer was, 'Maths and Physics at Sydney Uni, the Royal Military College at Duntroon, and a commission in the Australian Army.'
Gentle Evan, aged twenty-five, was pursuing a career in music. 'Aussie is a bit of a backwater as far as music goes. I have an offer in England which I'll take up as soon as I've got my shit together,' he had told his mother a few days earlier.
Just as Chloe was wondering whether her dinner would be spoiled, Mark and Tanya made their high-profile entrance in a fancy sports car David couldn't identify. He had never been fooled by Tanya. He knew she was clever, ambitious, and ruthless. She had always downplayed her role in the law firm, but David was aware she had now been elevated to the partnership, something she hadn't mentioned. She appeared to be casually dressed, but her long blonde hair, beautifully patterned shirt, and the shortest skirt she could get away with, showing off her long legs, made her the standout among those present.
There were lots of ribald greetings between the siblings, and the children were made a fuss of by all the adults before they were put to bed. Everyone automatically helped serve and clear-up the sumptuous dinner making Chloe's role very easy.
From Chloe's perspective, she had the perfect life. They lived in a large, five bedroom house, in Sydney's leafy North Shore, which she helped design and had built. It was quiet, overlooking bushland, and was close to the city. She played golf once or twice a week and usually indulged in one bridge afternoon. With her children now grown up, she spent a good deal of time on her charities. David ran a very successful operation and, although she had noticed him being rather secretive of late, she thought that probably had something to do with the business. He shared some of his business issues with her, but to her relief had never bored her with the details. She foresaw this situation continuing for some time to come. The word "retirement" had not passed David's lips, although she was confident they would have sufficient funds to retire on when the time came. Both of them were in good health.
Some of the family had noticed a screen with a computer and projector on a small table in the lounge. When David asked Joe to help him set it up on the now cleared dining room table, most thought he was going to show them a few slides from a recent trip to India. With coffee or port in hand, the family were relaxing, having indulged in too much good wine over dinner. David noticed that Tanya, although she laughed and talked as much as the others, had barely touched any alcohol. He wondered whether she was pregnant, but then decided that she, alone, had sensed something different in the atmosphere and was on full alert. He glanced at her, but she gave nothing away.
David said, 'I have ten slides here that try to explain something I've been researching over past months.'
'So, it's not you and Mum riding camels in India,' joked Evan.
'Not this time,' David smiled. 'There is a discussion going on suggesting human activity has caused the world to heat up.'
There were some uneasy glances around the room. David was not given to lecturing and he normally did not force his opinions on the family.
Mark glanced at Tanya who imperceptibly shook her head as if to say, 'Let's hear what he has to say first.'
'The first slide shows that average world temperatures have increased by just less than one degree centigrade since the early 1800s … '
The sigh of relief at this insignificant amount came too soon. David continued with the rest of his slides, briefly showing the results of his research on climate change and his conclusion that the world was facing a catastrophe not seen since the advent of Noah's flood.
Tanya listened intently, Holy fucking shit, she thought, we have drawn the same conclusions.
David was finishing, 'Under this scenario, virtually every port in the world would be inundated and many of the oil refineries. The consequences would be that food distribution, among other things, would come to an immediate halt and I don't see how it could be restored to anything like its present state for years.'
There was a stunned silence. Most of the family could not believe what their sensible, down-to-earth father had said.
'I can't believe this,' said Mark, deliberately aggressive, 'especially from a sane person like you. Are you now about to tell us that you're going to join the ranks of the great unwashed and lie about in Martin Place smoking dope and chanting ridiculous slogans? Anyway, what can we possibly do about any of that? You are just winding us up.' Although he had listened to Tanya saying almost the same things a few days earlier, he still needed convincing of the veracity of the science. He sometimes used this particular technique in his business dealings to try and tease out the issues.
'No, I'm not winding you up.' David glanced at Tanya, her half-smile appearing to signify approval. 'I thought that with all the brain power around this table we could at least discuss the evidence. What we do about it is another question.'
'Isn't the jury out on this? Are we certain your conclusions are correct?' asked Mark.
Tanya looked at him, frowned, and again shook her head.
'The evidence is overwhelming,' said Joe quietly. 'If anything, what David has presented is understated.'
'If food distribution is disrupted, people will starve,' said Evan uncertainly.
'Yes,' said David. 'Just think of the situation here in Australia. The ports will be unusable, for years probably. There will be no fuel for our trucks, so while there may be some food in the fields, it won't be going anywhere. People will certainly try to get out of the main cities. Can you imagine what it will be like? There will be absolute gridlock and people will quickly run out of fuel and food. I can see people dying on the M4. The supermarkets will be looted within days. The communications systems will be more or less destroyed. The police will be caught up in this thing like everyone else.'
'Okay,' Tanya had said nothing up to that point. 'Let us assume you are right and the Ross Ice Shelf will collapse into the sea. As Mark asked, what do you think we can or should do about it?'
'Well we could all go on living like kings for another ten or twenty years and when it happens, if we are still doing what we are doing now, the most sensible solution would be for us all to commit suicide. I expect many people would take this option,' answered an unsmiling David.
They all looked at him as if he was mad.
Tanya continued, looking at David directly, 'You most certainly have not brought us all to this wonderful dinner to tell us that though, have you?' She looked at him shrewdly. 'You really do have another solution.'
'Maybe,' said David, 'but if anyone has any other ideas I would be happy to hear them first.'
There was silence.
'I suppose there is no chance you are wrong, and all this is a lot of mumbo-jumbo. I have read that the world has cooled down and warmed up over thousands of years and this is happening again.' said Mark quietly, avoiding Tanya's glances.
'During the past seventy or so years the human population has grown from just more than two billion to just under seven billion people. It is forecast to be about nine billion within another fifty years. I believe that to be an underestimate, bearing in mind the trends over recent years … '
Joe interrupted, 'Without doubt, the increase in the world population has already had a major effect on global warming. The third world is determined to achieve first world living standards in as short a time as possible, so unless something drastic is done the trend to a warmer climate is likely to accelerate.'
David looked thankfully at Joe for his support. He then dropped his bombshell, as he said quietly, 'The collapse of the Ross Ice Shelf will wipe out anything from half to three quarters of whatever world population exists at the time. There is no doubt it will be an apocalypse like nothing the earth has seen in recent times and it certainly appears that human activity will have caused the catastrophe.'
There was a brief silence while the people around the table tried to gather their thoughts.
'What about governments around the world, surely they should be addressing this issue?' asked Patricia.
'The only government that is remotely capable of doing anything significant is the Chinese government. The democracies will not be able to generate the will to do enough. People have been brought up to expect continuing improvement in their living standards; they will not accept a situation that requires major sacrifices on their part, particularly when there is some dispute about the science behind climate change. If we rely on governments then we are headed for the suicide option,' David responded calmly.
'You've obviously thought about this,' said Tanya. 'Please tell us what you think the solution might be.'
'There is no solution as such,' said David. 'However, I have no intention of sitting on my hands and watching while the human race destroys itself. In thinking about it I have decided there is one basic objective. Would anyone like to tell me what they think that might be?'
There was silence again and then Tanya said, glancing quickly around the table, 'Under this unlikely scenario, there is only one possible objective and that is survival, firstly of self, and then family, and after that one can start thinking of the wider community.'
David looked at her admiringly, 'Precisely. My thoughts exactly. Does anyone have any ideas as to what we might do?'
Another stunned silence. David was aware that Chloe was looking daggers at him as if he was personally responsible for trying to destroy her "perfect" life.
David waited a few moments. Everyone was fully engaged, but they were waiting for him to speak. 'If we stay in Sydney, or any other major centre, we will be caught up in the disaster. We could go to one of the outback towns like Orange—' Chloe pulled a face. 'But those who escape Sydney will make for those towns, especially if they have not planned anything. I foresee considerable social disruption, even anarchy. Maybe all rural towns, like Orange, will have to limit the number of people they allow in. But food and fuel will be a problem for them as well.'
No one spoke.
'Okay,' said David, 'I really need help on this. One solution I think could work would be to develop a place somewhere, perhaps in the Blue Mountains that we could make totally self-sufficient. It would have to be defensible, almost inaccessible or could be made inaccessible once the Ross Ice Shelf collapses.' He had been speaking matter-of-factly, ticking the points off on his fingers. His calm demeanour belied his anxiety; he really needed to be able to convince this, his precious family, of the seriousness of the situation if they were collectively going to be able to do anything. He could see that he had everyone's full attention. Most were leaning forward waiting, now quite anxiously, for what he would say next. Tanya alone was leaning back, giving nothing away.
He ran through his mental list, 'We would have to produce all our own food, clothing, and electricity. We would have to be self-sufficient in water.'
'What about phones and Internet?' asked Evan. He thought it was all complete nonsense, but he wanted to be a part of the conversation.
'Phones and Internet would be as they are today, until of course the Ice Shelf collapses, after which, who knows, they would probably cease to function altogether.'
'All the major businesses, such as banks and supermarkets, would disappear … for a time anyway,' added Joe, warming to the theme.
David continued, 'Mining would cease, as would postal services and so on.' He hesitated, then continued, 'The rule of law would certainly collapse.' He looked at Jonathan, 'The military may survive and could therefore be the one cohesive force in the country.'
'Help me out now. I have probably forgotten a few things. It would be helpful if everyone put their minds to this,' David continued on determinedly.
'What I hear you saying is that we would find and develop a place deep in, say the Blue Mountains, which would have something like five hundred hectares of arable land, but would be protected by its location and would have limited access by road. The access would have to be able to be blocked once the Ice Shelf had collapsed, which would isolate the community established there, but it would also deny outsiders any access at all,' said Jonathan, carefully analysing the situation. He wasn't sure of the science yet, but was intrigued by the intellectual challenge.
'Something like that,' responded David.
'How many people do you envisage being part of this commune?' asked Evan. He wanted to dismiss the whole thing as rubbish, but he was very fond of both his parents so he was trying to humour his father.
'I suppose two or three hundred eventually, but it would have to start off very small, maybe a dozen people. Sooner or later we would need our own medical facilities, teachers, and so on as, for a period after the disaster first strikes, I think we would be completely isolated until the country had settled down.'
'You mean until large numbers of the population had died?' said Evan.
'I'm afraid that would be the case. As Tanya has so eloquently put it, the objective is survival firstly of self and family. When that has been achieved, we can help the wider community. If we don't survive we will not be able to help anyone.'
'It seems very selfish. Is there no way the whole community could be involved so that more people survive?' asked Patricia, always concerned with other people as much as herself.
'No, that's a government job and none of the democracies are managing to convince anyone to make sufficient sacrifices … '
Mark rudely interrupted, 'We've had many amusing discussions dealing with the ineptitude of governments and how they waste our money. I need to be convinced this isn't just a load of bull encouraging us to invest in some wild scheme in the bloody boonies while the rest of the world gets on with living their lives.' He glared at everyone, daring them to challenge him.
'I believe if we do nothing then we will all end up as victims,' said David, almost as if he didn't hear Mark. 'There may be others who are thinking like us and other so-called communes around the country that survive; they could be the basis of a continuing civilisation.'
'Will it be like Aboriginal tribes occupying parts of the country and clashing occasionally with each other over territory?' asked Mark, seeing his dream of leading the bank disappearing if this dire prediction came to pass.
'Hopefully not. We do all speak the same language. Once the disaster is well and truly over it ought to be possible for the survivors to cooperate and gradually rebuild, having learned some of the lessons of the past.'
The conversation continued into the night. Initially, everyone was anxious, but all settled down and applied themselves to the problem at hand.
Tanya tapped Patricia on the arm as dawn broke, 'Come, let's get breakfast, while they continue to argue.'
Watching Tanya while she drove home, Mark asked, 'Why didn't you want to discuss your own findings? Dad's are much the same as yours.'
'Just being cautious. It's too soon. I don't know what I think yet and what we should do about it. I'd assumed your dad would be on the side of the deniers; how wrong I was. Do we really want to be a part of his mad scheme? Thank God I kept my mouth shut. All our options are still open. Your challenge would have exposed any doubts he may have had, so I don't think he has any.'
'I didn't say it just to challenge his thinking, I'm having great difficulty in believing it all.' He glanced at Tanya, but she said nothing further.