American Science Fiction in 2009
For Science Fiction World (China)
There have been a number of major changes in American science fiction. There was a time when almost every New York mass market publisher had a science fiction line or imprint; today it’s limited to about half a dozen houses: Tor, Baen, Ace and Roc (both owned by the same company and edited by the same woman), DAW, Eos, and Ballantine/del Rey and Bantam/Spectra (which are owned by the same German conglomerate and seem to be in the process of merging.)
However, as the New York market have become less numerous, a number of viable “medium presses”—different from the traditional “small press” in that they pay a living wage—have appeared, including Pyr, Subterranean, Golden Gryphon, Night Shades, Tachyon, and a few others.
The world of the short story has changed even more radically. The three “major” digest magazines still exist: Asimov’s, Analog, and Fantasy & Science Fiction, and a recently deceased magazine, Realms of Fantasy has been resurrected. But that’s still only four printed magazines. The change has come on the internet, where there are 15 electronic magazines paying what SFWA (Science Fiction Writers of America) considers a professional word rate—and three of them, Jim Baen’s Universe, Subterranean Magazine, and Clarkesworld, pay more than any of the printed magazines and are attracting more major writers every day.
But as the world continues to change, so does the field of science fiction. Podcasting has become very popular. I know that I had a Hugo-winning short story, “Travels With My Cats,” in an issue of Asimov’s back in 2005, and that issue sold only about 18,000 copies. I then re-sold the story to Escape Pod, a podcast web page, where it was heard by 54,000 people in its first month—and it’s still available four years later, whereas the issue of Asimov’s was off the stands and could not be found after a month.
Books are now being sold to audio producers, both as CDs and as downloads, and that market is expanding enormously. Amazon.com just paid $300 million for Audible.com, a producer of audio books for download, so it seems safe to surmise that it’s a viable market for the foreseeable future.
A small start-up company called Fictionwise.com began in 2000 A.D., buying reprint rights to novels and short stories, buying nothing original—and recently sold its 100 billionth word.
The latest innovation is creating digital copies of books exclusively for mobile media—iphones and other cell phones.
So as I said, the market is growing by leaps and bounds, even in a poor economy.
Movies have helped, of course. I think of the 20 top-earning motion pictures in American history, 15 of them are science fiction or related (i.e., fantasy, horror, etc.) And that prepares each new generation of kids and young adults to go out and buy science fiction and fantasy books and magazines.
Of course, J. K. Rowling’s Harry Potter books have helped as well, selling an average of 25 million hardcovers each. And lately there is a popular trend of which I disapprove, but which does bring more readers to the field, and that is the vampire (or paranormal) romance.
There are approximately 200 science fiction conventions a year in America, some incredibly large (over 100,000 attendees), some incredibly small (under 100 attendees). The Worldcon still gives out the coveted Hugo Awards, and usually draws from 4,000 to 8,000 attendees.
Locus, the acknowledged newspaper of the science fiction field, keeps an annual tally of award winners. Here is where they stand in 2009:
Tallying all awards and polls for short fiction, Mike Resnick leads, adding to his awards tally 6 Science Fiction Chronicle poll wins, 5 Asimov’s SF readers’ poll wins, and 1 win each from Hayakawa and Locus magazine polls.
TOTAL WINS
32 Mike Resnick
30 Harlan Ellison
29 Connie Willis
24 Ursula K. Le Guin
23 Greg Egan
21 George R. R. Martin
20 Lucius Shepard
19 Ted Chiang
17 John Varley
15 Neil Gaiman
14 Nancy Kress
13 Robert J. Sawyer, Robert Silverberg, Michael Swanwick, James Tiptree, Jr.
12 Stephen Baxter
11 Poul Anderson, Joe Haldeman, no award, Kristine Kathryn Rusch, Dan Simmons
10 Terry Bisson, Kelly Link, Allen Steele
* * * *
Tallying all awards for short fiction, Mike Resnick leads. Like Robert J. Sawyer he was a favorite of HOMer voters (9 wins for short fiction); he’s also done well with Hugo Awards voters (5), and has also won two Ignotus awards, and once each the UPC and Nebula awards.
Total Wins
19 Mike Resnick
18 Connie Willis
15 Harlan Ellison
13 Ted Chiang
12 Ursula K. Le Guin
11 George R. R. Martin, no award, Robert J. Sawyer
10 Poul Anderson
9 Terry Dowling, Fritz Leiber, Robert Silverberg, Roger Zelazny
8 Greg Egan, Joe Haldeman, Nancy Kress, Lucius Shepard, James Tiptree, Jr., John Varley
7 Greg Bear, Neil Gaiman, Margo Lanagan, Kelly Link, Dan Simmons, Michael Swanwick
* * * *
This table shows cumulative tallies for fiction writing—nominations and wins for novels, short fiction, poetry, single-author collections, (though not screenplays), and for achievement awards for lifetime or new writing—for all awards and polls compiled in this Index.
Total Wins
53 Ursula K. Le Guin
46 Connie Willis
43 Harlan Ellison
36 Mike Resnick
34 Neil Gaiman, George R. R. Martin
33 Dan Simmons
32 Greg Egan
31 Robert J. Sawyer
29 Orson Scott Card, Joe Haldeman, Stephen King, Lucius Shepard
27 Robert Silverberg
26 John Varley
23 Poul Anderson, Gene Wolfe
22 Fritz Leiber, no award
21 Isaac Asimov, Ted Chiang, Larry Niven
20 Stephen Baxter
19 Lois McMaster Bujold, Ramsey Campbell, Arthur C. Clarke, Kim Stanley Robinson
18 Bruce Boston, David Brin, Robert A. Heinlein
17 Greg Bear, Terry Dowling, Frederik Pohl
16 Ray Bradbury, Peter Straub, Michael Swanwick, Vernor Vinge, Sean Williams, Roger Zelazny
15 Nancy Kress, James Tiptree, Jr.
14 China Miéville, Tim Powers
13 Anne McCaffrey, Michael Moorcock, J. K. Rowling, Kristine Kathryn Rusch, Jack Williamson
12 Brian W. Aldiss, Michael Bishop, Christopher Priest, Geoff Ryman
11 Catherine Asaro, Michael F. Flynn, Kelly Link, Garth Nix, Andre Norton, Allen Steele, Neal Stephenson, J. R. R. Tolkien, Kate Wilhelm, Robert Charles Wilson
10 Clive Barker, Terry Bisson, Samuel R. Delany, Elizabeth Hand, Joe Hill, James Patrick Kelly, Margo Lanagan, Richard Matheson, Ian McDonald, Terry Pratchett, Spider Robinson, Clifford D. Simak, Bruce Sterling, Jack Vance, Jane Yolen
* * * *
Total Nominations
In sum, the field is still viable, still producing important and enjoyable novels and short stories (and the art seems to get better every year). If books are selling a little less, part of it is doubtless due to the economy—but the other part is due to all the new platforms: audio, podcasting, digital distribution, and all the other things that science fiction has been predicting and preparing us for.