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Scotland at a Crossroads

FOR A DECADE, the SNP have successfully balanced competent governance alongside their priority and signature issue of Independence. In the eyes of some people, the referendum in 2014 may have been the high water mark of a remarkably successful period, in which they have dominated Scottish politics. For others, post-Brexit, this is only a temporary lull in the battle to ‘set Scotland free’. It would certainly be foolish to write off either the SNP or the idea of Independence at this stage. Politics is no longer the comfortable space of the past; shock developments are the norm, volatility is everywhere and Brexit and the right of the Conservative party remain a poisonous and unpredictable threat to the mood of Scotland and the stability of Britain.

The dynamic is now changing. A number of political certainties are being questioned, and for the SNP, domination of the Scottish Parliament is no longer guaranteed.

Questions are being asked about policies in the Holyrood Parliament, including health and education. Innovation and new ideas, have at least for now, dried up. What happens to the new powers the Parliament has gained will be a significant challenge, especially the tax powers.

Further Tory expenditure cuts will impact over the next few years. The party has done well with two significant and charismatic leaders but in recent times they have possibly become overdependent on the cult of personality in the form of a very successful First Minister. This is a critical time for viewing the political landscape of Scotland, the UK and Europe, and reassessing what the options are. The SNP are not by instinct, history, culture or ideology a party of the left, although there is an increasing emphasis to try and take them down this path. They are a populist party, with a significantly inclusive approach. Their excessive discipline, which was a strength for the SNP party over the last decade, could now be a constraint as initiatives are being stifled and there is a look of ‘New Labour’ in its later stages. Improved prospects for the Tory and Labour parties in Scotland will hopefully deepen and widen both the constitutional and policy debates.

Brexit has completely derailed the momentum of Independence and has certainly put back, by a number of years, the holding of a second referendum. The final impact of Brexit is still to come.

There is now the prospect of a debate on federalism made more real by the improved position of Labour in Scotland after the 2017 general election. The Labour party gained some traction and there is no doubt that there was a significant bounce from Labour’s campaign and manifesto. Labour in Scotland are in a much stronger position and are well placed to win back the centre left vote from the SNP, but they have to firm up on an alternative to Independence, firm up on their policy agenda and refrain from sounding like the Scottish Tories. They must promote a centre left agenda on the issues of the Union, on a second referendum in Scotland. There will be a second referendum in Scotland, but not necessarily about Independence. The constitutional question will not go away. Labour must accept the political importance of this and engage more fully in a campaign about federalism. This is the final option short of Independence and its possibilities should be seized by Scottish Labour. Despite the resurgence of the Tories in Scotland there is every possibility that this could be short lived. Scottish Tory MPs are now part of Theresa May’s governing party at Westminster and more and more they will be held accountable by Scots for their votes and actions at Westminster, including Brexit. In addition, many of the Scottish Tories by instinct and history are die hard unionists and may be unable to convert readily to a more ambitious federalism, which will require a shake-up of the UK and the radical transformation of Westminster including the provision of a written constitution.

Despite Brexit and the shambolic behaviour of Theresa May’s government, it is surprising that the Tories at Westminster have not been buried in an avalanche of questions, exposing both the Government’s lack of interest in radical or progressive thinking, as well as reinforcing in the minds of Scots that, whilst constitutional change is temporarily on the back burner, the Tories are still selling Scotland short.

The future of Scotland is politics, politics, politics! Scotland remains divided on its future direction. There is no settled will of the Scottish people, but the EU referendum and the Brexit chaos may be the portent of what a second referendum in Scotland could mean for solidarity, stability and consensus amongst Scots on a way forward.

Much will depend, of course, on Brexit. This is a game changer which could ignite another populist revival in Scotland against this mad idea and, unlike 2014, Scots will be faced with the question of not only leaving the UK but, if Brexit is successful, also leaving the EU. There is no doubt that leaving the Single Market and the customs union and turning our back on the institutions of the EU will also change the dynamic of the economic argument.

The debate on the constitution has been monopolised by the SNP and Independence over the last decade. This is Labour’s opportunity, should they wish to seize it. Scots are not yet convinced of Independence as the only way forward, but Independence has built up a great deal of support, momentum, interest and enthusiasm and still runs way ahead of other options. The final destination for Scotland will be influenced more by Westminster and a Conservative government than it will be by Edinburgh. After the recent general election in 2017, the prospect of a Labour victory has become a possibility. Labour will now have a better opportunity to build support in Scotland if they can pursue a progressive, centre left agenda and address the constitutional questions which must open up the federalist option. This is a tough ask. The idea of Independence has been around for a long time and it has made many converts. Is it too late for a federal alternative to gain support and credibility? Are Scots genuinely seeking an alternative to independence and devo unionism?

As we look forward, it is politics that will eventually decide what happens in Scotland, not the economy and not a romantic or sentimental attachment to a Britain that once was. One thing is clear, however, the debate has to extend further than the SNP and the idea of Independence. The next referendum should be about the future of Scotland, not the future of Independence. There is a significant body of public opinion in Scotland that seeks to be convinced of the merits of any of the options. Scotland is currently a 50/50 split on this way forward and this leaves the door wide open. The idea of independence has been around for a long time, and in recent years has gained significant traction, so federalism has an uphill struggle. The idea of interdependence in the EU may have a more attractive ring to it. What now for federalism?

This has to be seen against the wider debate within the UK Labour party. Scotland, with the approval from Westminster, could hold another ‘legal’ referendum on Independence, but Britain would have to agree to authorise a system of federalism being introduced. The politics of Westminster will be crucial if an alternative to Independence can be found. The stakes are high. Failure could, in the absence of federalism, lead to the break up of the UK. The conversion of Westminster to federalism is complex and cloaked in history. Does Labour have the vision, the energy and the ambition to deliver change?

Labour’s prospects look much better after the 2017 general election but there is still a mountain to climb, especially in relation to winning back those traditional Labour voters who feel left behind and who have figured so prominently in the Brexit analysis. If that is possible, the Conservative party’s grip on power at Westminster starts to loosen. Labour may then hold the key to unlocking the future of Scotland as well as reinvigorating Britain

This struggle between social democracy and socialism is a problem as old as the party itself, enduring ideas of: managing or taming capitalism or replacing it; social democracy or socialism; party or parliament and people; party membership or parliamentary party; protest or power; reform or revolution; and democracy or direct action, have all dominated Labour debates since its creation, but there is more to this than ideology or policy. Labour has drifted from having a sense of a historic mission or deeper purpose. There is no vision for ‘our’ better tomorrow, a widening gap between the generations, growing inequality and a profound sense of ‘them and us’. The excesses of globalisation, austerity economics, neoliberalism, and the relentless inroads of market principles into our social and public realms merely confirm capitalism has not been effectively managed. People are suffering and they are angry. People’s feelings of betrayal, broken promises and lack of trust are screaming at us from every possible direction. Right wing populism is filling the political space.

There is now a struggle for the heart and soul of the Labour party and there is no easy or obvious way to reconcile differences. The Parliamentary Labour Party has much to learn. Too often the PLP appears remote from the public and seems soulless, technocratic and managerial. They are law makers and need focus but not in a way that leaves party members and the public on the margins.

Corbyn has shaken us from our complacency, boosted membership and enthused young people, but a great swathe of electors and much of the PLP remain disconnected and unconvinced.

This political alliance of party members, Parliamentary Party and the people isn’t working! Jeremy Corbyn has halted Labour’s decline, but the question is: Can he deliver on its long term recovery? There is no place in or around the Labour party for the political baggage – the tactics, style, tone or intolerance – of the hard left. It is worth pointing out that MPs are political representatives, not party delegates, and Labour is a party, not a cult. Momentum is looking more and more like a party within a party.

Bernie Sanders, uncharacteristically for the US, ran on a socialist ticket, fired up the base of a conservative Democratic party and enthused and inspired young people to become involved. There are parallels with Corbyn. Promoting anti-austerity economics, tackling inequality, protecting employment rights, building a national education service, bringing the railways back into public ownership and keeping the NHS free from privatisation have as much to do with common sense as they have to do with socialism. These are popular with the voters. These are unifying policies.

Tony Wright, former MP and distinguished academic, identifies the essence of Labour’s current dilemma:

Corbyn’s successful leadership campaign was based on telling people what the Labour party stood for and what it would do. Members and supporters viewed this as being both refreshing and overdue. People were thinking aloud, the word socialism was heard at rallies and there was talk of humanity, ethics, equality and fairness. This had echoes of the Scottish referendum campaign where people felt empowered, enthused and were not content to be subdued by old electoral habits or what was on offer from the traditional political parties or to be intimidated by the establishment. Ideas and ideals matter. They represent the building blocks from which a new political narrative can capture the hearts and minds of an electorate that have little understanding of who Labour is, what the party stands for, what does it aim to do and how will these be achieved.

Labour cannot continue in its present form without a successful political alliance – the party membership, parliamentary party and the people – finding a way to coexist and win power. This is vital to the future of a party that is interested in both protest and power.

Labour needs:

For Labour, the press mood is harsh and unforgiving. The party will have to dig deep to find a new way forward and accept that party membership, while important, is only one element of the political alliance needed to translate passion and protest into power with a clear purpose. Labour needs to redefine the British political conversation, or the nationalists and populists in England and Scotland will continue to define it for us.