Introduction
1 For unconditionally hostile arguments about Putin, see K. Dawisha, Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?; E. Lucas, The New Cold War: How the Kremlin Menaces both Russia and the West and Deception: Spies, Lies and How Russia Dupes the West; A. Wilson, Virtual Politics Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World and Ukraine Crisis.
2 For anti-anti-Kremlin arguments, especially on foreign policy, see S. F. Cohen, Soviet Fates and Lost Alternatives: From Stalinism to the New Cold War and War with Russia? From Putin and Ukraine to Trump and Russiagate; R. Sakwa, Putin Redux: Power and Contradiction in Contemporary Russia, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands and Russia Versus the West: The Post-Cold War Crisis of World Order; T. Wood, Without Putin: Money, Power and the Myths of the New Cold War.
Chapter 1: Father to the Nation: The Putin Cult
1 Rossiya: metodologicheskie rekomendatsii po rabote s kartochkami dlya do-shkol’nikov i mladshikh shkol’nikov.
2 V. V. Putin, press conference (Hangzhou), 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/52834
3 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (12 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI.
4 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 7.
5 Meeting of V. V. Putin and G. Zyuganov, 29 December 2015: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/98/events/51030
6 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 11; V. V. Putin, interview with M. Kelly (NBC TV), 10 March 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57027; V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 91.
7 V. V. Putin (interview), Time, 12 December 2007: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24735
8 V. V. Putin, remarks at the All-Russia Popular Front, 25 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206
9 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 108.
10 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
11 V. V. Putin, visit to L. L. Matveev at home, 8 May 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54464
12 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
13 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 87.
14 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 15 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54790
15 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
16 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 15 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54790
17 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
18 ‘Putin zhiv. Kreml’ pokazal segodnyashnii photo prezidenta’, Korrespondent. net, 13 March 2015.
19 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
20 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 14 April 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51716
21 A. Shamanska, ‘Across Russia, a Scramble to Patch up Problems Aired in Putin Q&A’, RadioFreeEurope/Radio Liberty, 15 April 2016.
22 Izvestiya, 22 October 2014.
23 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
24 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
25 Ibid.
26 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
27 Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
28 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 21.
29 ‘Pokushavshiisya na Putina Osmaev rasskazal podrobnosti smerti svoei zheny’, 31 October 2017: https://lenta.ru/news/2017/1031/okueva
30 V. V. Putin, annual press conference, 14 December 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56378
31 K. Hille, ‘Putin’s Poll Rivals Gain a Platform But Cannot Win’, Financial Times, 13 February 2018.
32 Candidates’ debate, Rossiya-1 TV channel, 14 January 2018.
33 Luzhniki stadium pre-election rally, 3 March 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=caJso9aps14
34 V. V. Putin, presidential address to the Federal Assembly, 1 March 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957
Chapter 2: Imagining Russia: A Vision for the Russians
1 V. V. Putin, presidential address to Federal Assembly, 25 April 2005: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931
2 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 19 September 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19243
3 V. V. Putin, annual presidential address to Federal Assembly, 12 December 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825
4 Ibid.
5 Ibid.
6 V. V. Putin, presidential address to Federal Assembly, 25 April 2005: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931
7 V. Putin, ‘Rossiya, natsional’nyi vopros’, Nezavisimaya gazeta, 23 January 2012.
8 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 19 September 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19243
9 J. M. Barroso (interview with P. Spiegel), Financial Times, 4 November 2014.
10 V. Nikonov, Kod tsivilizatsii: chto zhdët Rossiyu v mire budushchego?, p. 618.
11 Ibid., pp. 282–3 and 301.
12 A. Dugin, Russkaya voina, pp. 53 and 260.
13 See A. Dugin, Chetvërtaya politicheskaya teoriya: Rossiya i politicheskie idei XXI veka, pp. 99–100, 112, 141 and 170.
14 Anna Nemtsova, ‘Russia’s Alt-Right Rasputin Says He’s Steve Bannon’s Ideological Soul Mate’, The Daily Beast, 24 April 2017: http://www.thedailybeast.com/russias-alt-right-rasputin-says-hes-steve-bannons-ideological-soul-mate
15 V. V. Putin, presidential address to Federal Assembly, 25 April 2005: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931
16 V. V. Putin, annual Moscow press conference, 23 December 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53573
17 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, p. 175.
18 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (12 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
19 See T. Snyder, The Road to Freedom: Russia, Europe, America, p. 52.
20 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
21 Ibid.
22 V. V. Putin, media interview, 19 January 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20080
23 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
24 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
25 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
Chapter 3: Tsars, Commissars and After: The New Official Past
1 Confidential information to the author.
2 5 June 2007: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/40365
3 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 19 September 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19243
4 V. V. Putin, annual presidential address to Federal Assembly, 12 December 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825; V. V. Putin, annual presidential address to the Federal Assembly, 4 December 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47173
5 On Ilin’s reinterment see S. Kishkovsky, ‘Echoes of Civil War in Reburial of Russian’, New York Times, 3 October 2005.
6 For a different interpretation, which postulates that Ilin has had an influence on Putin that predetermined his thinking and policies, see T. Snyder, The Road to Freedom: Russia, Europe, America, pp. 58–9.
7 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
8 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261. Doubts have been expressed that Alexander III really spoke these words about the armed forces.
9 V. V. Putin, speech in the Livadia Palace park, 18 November 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56125
10 V. Kara-Murza, ‘What Putin Isn’t Learning from His Role Model, Czar Alexander III’, World Affairs, 27 November 2017.
11 V. V. Putin, speech to State Duma, 5 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53027
12 V. V. Putin, annual presidential address to Federal Assembly, 12 December 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19825
13 V. V. Putin, annual presidential address to the Federal Assembly, 1 December 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/messages/53379
14 V. V. Putin, remarks at the All-Russia Popular Front, 25 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206
15 Personal information given to the author at an FCO seminar, 9 February 2017.
16 V. V. Putin, remarks at the All-Russia Popular Front, 25 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206
17 Ibid.
18 On the latest twist of fate of the White commanders, see J. D. Smele, The ‘Russian’ Civil Wars, 1916–1926: Ten Years That Shook the World, p. 239.
19 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
20 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
21 ‘Russia Unveils Controversial Yalta Monument Featuring Stalin’, RFE/RL, 5 February 2015.
22 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
23 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 15 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54790
24 V. V. Putin, annual Moscow press conference, 23 December 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53573
25 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 4 (June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMMakf1rvVM
26 V. Medinskii, Osobennosti natsionalʹnogo piara, Pravdivaya istoriya Rusi ot Ryurika do Petra.
27 S. Kremlëv, Yu. Nersesov, A. Burovskii, V. Dolgov and A. Raev, Anti-Medinskii: oproverzhenie: kak partiya vlasti ‘pravit’ istoriyu.
28 V. Medinskii, Voina, mify SSSR, 1939–1945, pp. 619–23.
29 V. V. Putin, remarks at the All-Russia Popular Front, 25 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51206
30 V. V. Putin (announcement), 15 February 2019: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59843
31 V. V. Putin, presidential address to Federal Assembly: 25 April 2005: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931. My thanks to Robin Milner-Gulland for emphasizing the specific context of Putin’s remark.
32 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 22 October 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548. See also The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (16 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
33 V. V. Putin, presidential address to Federal Assembly, 25 April 2005: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931
34 I owe this finding to my St Antony’s and Hoover colleague Timothy Garton Ash, who met Putin in 1993. See his article ‘Putin’s Deadly Doctrine’, New York Times, 18 July 2014.
35 See P. Goble, ‘When a Western Leader Spoke the Truth Directly to Putin – and Putin Couldn’t Take It’, Window on Eurasia – New Series, 10 July 2017: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2017/07/when-western-leader-spoke-truth.html. I owe this point to Neil Taylor.
36 V. V. Putin, presidential address to the Federal Assembly, 1 March 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56957
37 V. V. Putin (interview), Time, 12 December 2007: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24735. I have translated from the official Russian text because the magazine’s text removes the crabbed language of Putin’s words.
Chapter 4: Years of Hurt: Picturing National Humiliation
1 See A. Adamishin, V raznye gody: vneshnepoliticheskie ocherki, pp. 407–8.
2 Ibid.
3 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
4 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
5 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
6 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
7 V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 1, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 11 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51154; V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 2, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 12 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155
8 I am grateful to Roderic Lyne and Catherine Ashton for their emphatic information on this point. For the opposite viewpoint see T. Wood, Without Putin: Money, Power and the Myths of the New Cold War, p. 122.
9 Author’s conversation with Toomas Hendrik Ilves, 1 August 2018 (Stanford).
10 Confidential communication to this book’s author, 18 November 2017.
11 Author’s conversation with Toomas Hendrik Ilves, 1 August 2018 (Stanford).
12 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
13 S. Ivanov (interview): Putin, Russia and the West: Taking Control (producer N. Percy; BBC2, 19 January 2012).
14 V. V. Putin, presidential address, 4 September 2004: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22589. My thanks to Amir Weiner for discussing the wide-reaching importance of the Beslan outrage.
15 N. P. Patrushev (interview), Sputnik International, 1 November 2016: https://sputniknews.com/interviews/201611011046936463-patrushev-exclusive-interview/
16 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
17 A. A. Kovalev and S. I. Levine, Russia’s Dead End: An Insider’s Testimony from Gorbachev to Putin, p. 308.
18 Ibid., p. 302.
19 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, pp. 82, 116 and 142.
20 Ibid., pp. 5 and 150.
21 Ibid., pp. 134–7.
22 See below, pp. 127–8.
23 M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace: An American Ambassador in Putin’s Russia, pp. 106–7.
24 Ibid., p. 133.
25 See P. Conradi, Who Lost Russia? How the World Entered a New Cold War, p. 182.
26 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
27 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y; The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (12 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
28 R. Lyne, S. Talbott and K. Watanabe, Engaging with Russia: The Next Phase. A Report to the Trilateral Commission, p. 112.
Chapter 5: Long Live Russia! Achievements and Prospects
1 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 314.
2 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, pp. 143–51.
3 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 319; S. V. Lavrov, interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, 31 May 2016; S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, pp. 170–2.
4 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 320; A. Kolesnikov, ‘Glavnaya noch’ v Sochi’, Kommersant, 7 February 2014.
5 ‘Tekstovaya translyatsiya Novoi’ (online report), Novaya gazeta, 15 February 2014.
6 Kommersant, 16 February 2014.
7 See S. Medvedev, Park krymskogo perioda, pp. 187–9.
8 See A. Knight, Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder, pp. 262–3.
9 V. V. Putin, statement on the WADA report, 18 July 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52537
10 See B. Lo, A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World, p. 10.
11 Ibid.
12 E. M. Primakov, notes for meeting with V. V. Primakov, earlier than 3 September 2009: V. I. Matvienko and S. E. Naryshkin (eds), Neizvestnyi Primakov, vol. 1 (Dokumenty), p. 328.
13 Z. Brzezinski, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives; Z. Brzezinski, Strategic Vision: America and the Crisis of Global Power; H. Kissinger, World Order.
14 V. V. Putin, speech at the ‘Primakov Readings’ International Forum, 30 November 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53361
15 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
16 Ibid.
17 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
18 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
19 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 107.
20 Ibid., p. 112.
21 Ibid.
Chapter 6: Behind the Facade: Putin as Leader
1 See P. Reddaway, Russia’s Domestic Security Wars: Putin’s Use of Divide and Rule Against His Hardline Allies, p. 13.
2 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
3 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 121.
4 G. Pavlovsky, ‘Putin’s World Outlook: Interview with Tom Parfitt’, New Left Review, July/August 2014, p. 59.
5 Conversation between B. A. Berezovski and J. F. Collins (American embassy in Moscow), 5 February 1999: https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36594
6 See the interview with former KGB Chairman L. Shebarshin, ‘KGB idët vo vlast’’, Vek, no. 2 (2000).
7 Sluzhba bezopasnosti: Yu. M. Luzhkov, no. 3–4 (1998), p. 17 and V. A. Yakovlev, no. 5–6 (1998), p. 27. I am grateful to Amir Weiner for alerting me to the presence of this journal in the Hoover Institution Library.
8 V. I. Matvienko and S. E. Naryshkin (eds), Neizvestnyi Primakov, vol. 1 (Dokumenty), p. 362.
9 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, pp. 88–9.
10 Conversation between B. A. Berezovski and J. F. Collins (American embassy in Moscow), 5 February 1999: https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/36594
11 Conversation between W. J. Clinton and B. N. Yeltsin, 20 June 1999 (Cologne): https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/16206
12 Meeting between Bill Clinton and Boris Yeltsin (Washington), 19 November 1999; phone conversation between them, 31 December 1999: https://clinton.presidentiallibraries.us/items/show/57569
13 See J. B. Dunlop, The Moscow Bombings of September 1999: Examinations of Russian Terrorist Attacks at the Onset of Vladimir Putin’s Rule, pp. 35, 59–60, 62, 71 and 162. My thanks to John Dunlop for his advice on the onset of the war in Chechnya.
14 C. Rice, Democracy: Stories from the Long Road to Freedom, p. 124.
15 See chapters 9 and 10.
16 ‘Hacking at Defence’, International Herald Tribune, 26 February 2013.
17 E. M. Primakov, Rossiya: Nadezhdy i trevogi, pp. 20–7 and 29.
18 M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace, pp. 225–7.
19 E. M. Primakov, Rossiya: Nadezhdy i trevogi, p. 30.
20 V. V. Putin, speech on a working visit to the Votkinsk missile factory, 21 March 2011: http://archive.premier.gov.ru/ru/events/news/1454/print/
21 G. Pavlovskii, ‘Gosudarstvo Putina visit na voloske’, polit.ru, 20 August 2012; M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace, p. 242.
22 Alexander Goldfarb (interview) in P. Aven (ed.), Vremya Berezovskogo, p. 553.
23 ‘Postanovil pered vyborami’, Vedomosti, 13 July 2011; see the discussion by A. Arutunyan, The Putin Mystique: Inside Russia’s Power Cult, note 161.
24 V. V. Putin, Q&A at the State Duma, November 1998: Sluzhba bezopasnosti, no. 1 (1999), pp. 32–3.
25 V. V. Putin, ‘FSB protiv ekonomicheskikh prestuplenii’, Sluzhba bezopasnosti, no. 1 (1999), p. 30.
26 V. V. Putin, Q&A at the State Duma, November 1998: Sluzhba bezopasnosti, no. 1 (1999), pp. 32–3.
27 Ibid.
28 M. Kasyanov, Bez Putina: politicheskie dialogi s Yevgeniem Kiselëvym, pp. 206–7. The suspicion has been raised that Putin plagiarized large parts of the text of his dissertation from the work of two American academics: see I. Danchenko and C. Gaddy, ‘The Mystery of Vladimir Putin’s Dissertation’, The Brookings Institution, 30 March 2006: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2012/09/Putin-Dissertation-Event-remarks-with-slides.pdf. I am assuming that even if Putin’s authenticity as a writer is in doubt, he at least endorsed the argument of the dissertation. For a translation of the text see ‘Putin’s Thesis (Raw Text)’ (translated by Thomas Fennell), The Atlantic, 20 August 2008, pp. 1–17: https://www.theatlantic.com/daily-dish/archive/2008/08/putins-thesis-raw-text/212739/
29 A. Roxburgh, The Strongman: Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia, pp. 48–9.
30 A. Dubnov, ‘Osoboe mnenie’, Ekho Moskvy, 10 May 2017: http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1977880-echo
31 Ibid.
32 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 22 October 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548
33 Author’s conversation with Michael McFaul, 9 August 2017 (Stanford, CA).
34 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 139.
35 G. W. Bush, Decision Points, p. 295.
36 I have this information from Timothy Nelson of the US State Department: 17 November 2017 (Washington DC).
37 G. W. Bush, Decision Points, p. 431.
38 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
39 Author’s conversation with Catherine Ashton, 20 February 2018.
40 G. Packer, ‘The Quiet German’, New Yorker, 1 December 2014.
41 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 23.
42 K. Gaaze and M. Fishman, ‘Sluzhili dva tovarishcha’, Russkii Newsweek, 24 December 2008.
43 V. V. Putin, press conference (Hangzhou), 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/52834
44 See A. Ostrovsky, The Invention of Russia: The Journey from Gorbachev’s Freedom to Putin’s War, p. 247.
45 Meeting of V. V. Putin with 30 leading media figures, 18 January 2012: http://archive.premier.gov.ru/events/news/17798/print/
46 Author’s conversation with Sir Roderic Lyne, 8 November 2017.
47 G. Pavlovsky, ‘Putin’s World Outlook: Interview with Tom Parfitt’, New Left Review, July/August 2014, pp. 60–1. I heard similar accounts from diplomats about Putin’s temporary depressed mental condition.
48 Oral information from Sir Roderic Lyne, 9 February 2017.
49 See A. Knight, ‘Here’s My President’, Times Literary Supplement, 28 June 2017.
50 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI; O. Stoun [O. Stone], Interv’yu c Vladimirom Putinym: polnaya versiya, p. 211.
Chapter 7: Loyalty and Discipline: The Kremlin Team
1 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), p. 176.
2 See R. Service, The Penguin History of Modern Russia from Tsarism to the Twenty-First Century, pp. xxxv, 235 and 252.
3 V. V. Cherkesov, ‘Nevedomstvennye razmyshleniya o professii’, Komsomol’skaya Pravda, 29 December 2004. On the struggle among the intelligence agencies, see P. Reddaway, Russia’s Domestic Security Wars: Putin’s Use of Divide and Rule Against His Hardline Allies, pp. 32–3.
4 ‘Tablo’, Zavtra, 29 December 2006 reports a noisy meeting of veteran security officials where Putin was even accused of treason.
5 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 187.
6 Ibid., pp. 110 and 155.
7 Ibid., p. 177.
8 K. Gaaze and M. Fishman, ‘Sluzhili dva tovarishcha’, Russkii Newsweek, 24 December 2008.
9 Ibid.
10 Author’s conversation with Michael McFaul, 9 August 2017 (Stanford, CA).
11 See below, pp. 183–4.
12 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (12 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
13 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 18.
14 V. Milov, B. Nemtsov, V. Ryzhkov and O. Shorina (eds), Nezavisimyi ekspertnyi doklad: Putin: korruptsiya, vol. 2, p. 26.
15 M. Rostovskii, ‘Gryzlova zamenit “mister obayanie”’, Moskovskii Komsomolets, 18 December 2011.
16 A. Baturo and J. Elkink, ‘Dynamics of Regime Personalization and Patron-Client Networks in Russia, 1999–2014’, Post-Soviet Affairs, no. 1 (2016), pp. 88–9.
17 V. Yakunin recorded Kudrin’s outburst in The Treacherous Path, p. 207.
18 M. Kasyanov, Bez Putina: politicheskie dialogi s Yevgeniem Kiselëvym, p. 125.
19 Ibid., pp. 122 and 126–7.
20 Ibid., pp. 128–9.
21 Ibid., pp. 130–1 and 132–3.
22 Ibid., p. 135.
23 Ibid., pp. 244–5.
24 Ibid., pp. 245–9.
25 Ibid., pp. 250.
26 Interview with A. L. Kudrin, Novoe vremya, no. 34 (1997).
27 See A. Chelnokov, Putinskii zastoi: Novoe Politbyuro Kremlya, p. 184.
28 ‘Kudrin Explains Decision to Resign’, Moscow Times, 28 September 2011. For the background see R. Sakwa, Putin Redux: Power and Contradiction in Contemporary Russia, p. 114.
29 I am grateful to Carol Leonard and Ivan Lyubimov for information on the fate of Kudrin’s report.
30 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, p. 119.
31 A. Åslund, ‘Sergei Glazyev and the Revival of Soviet Economics’, Post-Soviet Affairs, no. 5 (2013), pp. 376–8.
32 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, pp. 5–6 and 27.
33 Ibid., pp. 33, 35, 53, 67, 275 and 297–9.
34 Ibid., pp. 226 and 257.
35 See B. Lo and L. Shevtsova, A 21st Century Myth: Authoritarian Modernization in Russia and China, pp. 34–5.
36 A. Åslund, ‘Sergei Glazyev and the Revival of Soviet Economics’, Post-Soviet Affairs, no. 5 (2013), p. 379.
37 S. V. Lavrov, interview with Komsomolskaya Pravda, 31 May 2016; S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, pp. 170–2 and 176.
38 V. V. Putin, interview with Bloomberg TV, 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52830
39 ‘Vtoraya kholodnaya’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 15 October 2014.
40 Ibid.
41 Ibid.
42 S. A. Karaganov, Strategiya dlya Rossii: povestka dnya dlya prezidenta – 2000, p. 7.
43 Report by E. Surnachëva, ‘V poiskakh mudrosti’, Kommersant Vlast’, 20 January 2014.
44 V. Yu. Surkov, speech to the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya, 17 May 2005, reproduced in I. Semenikhin, Vladislav Surkov: Pro et Contra: Dialogi o suverennoi demokratii i istoricheskom vybore novoi Rossii, pp. 47–8.
Chapter 8: Life at the Top: No Embarrassment of Riches
1 See R. Service, A History of Modern Russia from Nicholas II to Vladimir Putin, p. 513.
2 S. Farolfi, L. Harding and S. Orphanides. ‘Russian Oligarch Gets Cypriot Passport – and EU Citizenship’, Guardian, 3 March 2018.
3 https://www.rt.com/business/russia-officials-foreign-assets-998
4 S. Grey, A. Kuzmin and E. Piper, Reuters Investigates, 10 November 2015: http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/russia-capitalism-daughters
5 Declaration of Presidential income, 14 April 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/security-council/54289
6 B. Nemtsov and L. Martynyuk, Zhizn’ raba na galerakh: Dvortsy, yakhty, avtomobili, samolëty i aksessuary, p. 5.
7 Ibid, pp. 24 and 27.
8 Ibid, pp. 29–32.
9 S. V. Kolesnikov, open letter to D. A. Medvedev, 21 December 2010: http://skolesnikov.org/?page_id=92
10 S. Kolesnikov, ‘Bor’ba s korruptsiei: prizrak dvortsa’, Vedomosti, 25 April 2011.
11 S. Kolesnikov (interview by Tim Whewell), Newsnight, BBC1, 2 May 2012.
12 ‘Putin’s Spokesman Dismisses Report of Palace on Black Sea’, Sputnik International, 23 December 2010: https://sputniknews.com/russia/20101223161908045/
13 R. Oliphant, ‘Friendly Oligarch Buys “Putin” Palace’, Moscow Times, 3 March 2012.
14 A. Chelnokov, Putinskii zastoi: Novoe Politbyuro Kremlya, p. 7; V. Milov, B. Nemtsov, V. Ryzhkov and O. Shorina (eds), Nezavisimyi ekspertnyi doklad: Putin: korruptsiya, vol. 2, p. 20.
15 V. Milov, B. Nemtsov, V. Ryzhkov and O. Shorina (eds), Nezavisimyi ekspertnyi doklad: Putin: korruptsiya, vol. 2, pp. 19–25.
16 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
17 R. P. Spogli to the State Department and the White House, 26 January 2009: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/09ROME97_a.html
18 P. di Caro, ‘Berlusconi vola a festeggiare Putin: l’amicizia che resiste a governi e amori’, Corriere della Sera, 7 October 2018. Present of a duvet with their handshake photo.
19 F. Dragosei, Stelle del Cremlino: L’Occidente deve temere la nuova Russia?, pp. 231–2.
20 S. Grey, A. Kuzmin and E. Piper, Reuters Investigates, 10 November 2015: http://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/russia-capitalism-daughters
21 V. Milov, B. Nemtsov, V. Ryzhkov and O. Shorina (eds), Nezavisimyi ekspertnyi doklad: Putin: korruptsiya, vol. 2, p. 27.
22 Ibid.
23 A. Navalnyi website, 9 December 2014: https://navalny.com/p/3954/
24 Fond Bor’by s Korruptsiei website, posted 15 September 2016: https://fbk.info/investigations/post/249
25 Fond Bor’by s Korruptsiei website, posted 15 September 2016: https://dimon.navalny.com/#rublevka
26 A. Navalnyi website, 27 March 2017: https://navalny.com/p/5306
27 A. Navalnyi presentation, 6 March 2018, ‘Dvorets, na kotoryi zapreshcheno smotret’’: https://fbk.info/blog/post/408
28 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 89.
29 B. Nemtsov and L. Martynyuk, Nezavisimyi ekspertnyi doklad: Zimnyaya Olimpiada v subtropikakh, pp. 19–20.
30 N. Raibman, ‘RZhD: Doklad Nemtsova pro Olimpiadu navredil reputatsiyu kompanii’, Vedomosti, 10 October 2014.
31 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
32 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 15 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54790
33 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 15 June 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kkQRF8YC–A
34 V. V. Putin, annual Moscow press conference, 23 December 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53573
35 Ibid.
36 ‘Sechin vyigral sud u “Vedomosti”, i reshenie vstupilo v silu’, Vedomosti, 18 November 2016.
37 E. M. Primakov, Rossiya: nadezhdy i trevogi, p. 26.
38 V. V. Putin, joint press conference with A. Merkel, 16 November 2012: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/16852
39 M. Weiss, ‘Corruption and Cover-Up in the Kremlin: The Anatoly Serdyukov Case’, The Atlantic Monthly, 29 January 2013.
40 A. Sukhotin, ‘Operatsiya “Vertikal”’, Novaya gazeta, 18 August 2017.
41 O. Sapozhkov, ‘Uvol’nenie nevolei’, Kommersant, 30 December 2016.
42 See P. Reddaway, Russia’s Domestic Security Wars: Putin’s Use of Divide and Rule Against His Hardline Allies, p. 75.
43 O. Sapozhkov, ‘Uvol’nenie nevolei’, Kommersant, 30 December 2016.
44 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, p. 167.
45 A. V. Ulyukaev, V ozhidanii krizisa: khod i protivorechiya ekonomicheskikh reform v Rossii, pp. 163–4; V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, pp. 198–9.
46 A. Navalnyi, ‘Ob Ulyukaeve: on na 100% zhulik, no sazhayut ego ne za eto’, 15 November 2016: https://navalny.com/p/5131
47 K. Hille, ‘Rosneft Chief Igor Sechin Refuses to Appear at Corruption Trial’, Financial Times, 22 November 2017.
48 Twitter @aleksei_kudrin: 15 December 2017.
49 ‘Sechin nazval provokatsiei slukhi ob uchastii “Rosnefti” v obrushenii rublya’, Interfaks, 16 December 2014: http://www.interfax.ru/business/413407
50 V. V. Putin, annual press conference, 14 December 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56378
Chapter 9: Economic Fist of State: Holding the ‘Oligarchs’ to Account
1 Putin, Russia and the West: Taking Control (producer N. Percy; BBC2, 19 January 2012).
2 See above, p. 71.
3 Interview with A. L. Kudrin, Novoe vremya, no. 34 (1997).
4 See above, p. 69.
5 See A. Arutunyan, The Putin Mystique: Inside Russia’s Power Cult, p. 76.
6 United States Senate Judiciary Committee: interview of Glenn Simpson (Fusion GPS), 22 August 2017, pp. 46–7: https://www.feinstein.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/3/9/3974a291-ddbe-4525-9ed1-22bab43c05ae/934A3562824CACA7BB4D915E97709D2F.simpson-transcript-redacted.pdf
7 Ibid., p. 161.
8 See S. Khazov, ‘Spisok Magnitskogo’. Chego boitsya Putin, pp. 21–43; B. Browder, Red Notice: How I Became Putin’s No. 1 Enemy, pp. 338–40.
9 Ibid., pp. 242–64.
10 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
11 Yu. Felshtinskii (interview) in P. Aven (ed.), Vremya Berezovskogo, pp. 622–7.
12 I. Cobain, M. Taylor and (in Moscow) L. Harding, Guardian, 13 April 2007.
13 Ibid.
14 I was one of those witnesses, and can vividly recall the deliberate attempt that Berezovski, seated a few yards away and directly in front of the witness stand, made to stare down and intimidate witnesses.
15 B. Berezovski, open letter to Patriarch Kirill, 15 January 2012 (London): http://echo.msk.ru/blog/berezovski/849154-echo/
16 L. Harding, ‘Humiliation for Boris Berezovsky in Battle of the Oligarchs’, Guardian, 30 August 2012.
17 This evidence comes from P. Aven (pp. 22, 686), A. Goldfarb (p. 611), Ye. Gorbunova (pp. 644–5) and ‘Darya K.’, Berezovski’s fiancée (p. 687) in P. Aven (ed.), Vremya Berezovskogo.
18 See P. Chaisty, Legislative Politics and Economic Power in Russia, pp. 126 and 136.
19 Vashukevich-Rybka was arrested in Thailand for prostitution. On release in January 2019 she flew to Belarus with a stopover at Moscow’s Sheremetevo airport, where Russian police arrested her on a similar charge. She was released, reportedly on condition that she ceased to leak embarrassing information: ‘“Sex Trainer”, Escort “Nastya Rybka”, Released But Remains Suspect, Lawyer Says’, RFE/RL, 22 January 2019.
20 A. Navalnyi, ‘Yakhty, oligarkhi, devochki: okhotnitsa na muzhchin razo-blachaet vzyatochnika’, 8 February 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQZr2NgKPiU
21 Ibid.
22 ‘Vitse-prem’er Prikhod’ko zayavil o zhelanii otvetit’ Naval’nomu po-muzhski’, RBK Politika, 9 February 2018: https://www.rbc.ru/politics/09/02/2018/5a7d-c6479a7947a4be81bebb
Chapter 10: Start and Stop Reforms: Perks for the Few, Costs for the Many
1 M. Kasyanov, Bez Putina: politicheskie dialogi s Yevgeniem Kiselëvym, pp. 127–8.
2 Ibid., p. 166.
3 Ibid.
4 Ibid., pp. 166–7.
5 Ibid., pp. 197–8.
6 Ibid.
7 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, pp. 47–8.
8 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
9 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
10 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
11 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 177.
12 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, p. 204.
13 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
14 P. Chaisty, ‘The Legislative Effects of Presidential Partisan Powers in Post-Communist Russia’, Government and Opposition, no. 3 (2008), pp. 446 and 449.
15 A. B. Evans Jr, ‘Civil Society and Protest’, in S. K. Wegren (ed.), Return to Putin’s Russia: Past Imperfect, Future Uncertain, pp. 108–10; S. Wengle and M. Rasell, ‘The Monetization of L’goty: Changing Patterns of Welfare Politics and Provision in Russia’, Europe-Asia Studies, no. 5 (2008), p. 745; G. B. Robertson, The Politics of Protest in Hybrid Regimes: Managing Dissent in Post-Communist Russia, p. 187.
16 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
17 Ibid.
18 Kremlin Echo: Three Views on Presidential Power, Law and the Economy; Interview with Andrei Illarionov (30 December 2004), p. 17.
19 ‘Putin: ‘‘K schast’yu, v VTO nas ne pustili”’, 7 February 2009: https://www.pravda.ru/news/world/07-02-2009/301143-putin_barrozu-0
20 See S. Barsukova and C. Dufy, ‘Doktrina prodovol’stvennoi bezopasnosti RF (2010 g.)’, in S. Barsukova (ed.), Reformy v Rossii v 2000-e gody: ot zakonodatel’stva k praktikam, p. 37.
21 S. Wengle, ‘Plentiful Harvests in Eurasia, Why Some Farms in Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Armenia are Thriving Despite Institutional Challenges’, PONARS Policy Memo 490 (October 2017), pp. 6–7.
22 See S. Barsukova and C. Dufy, ‘Doktrina prodovol’stvennoi bezopasnosti RF (2010 g.)’, pp. 37–8.
23 Kremlin Echo: Three Views on Presidential Power, Law and the Economy; Interview with Andrei Illarionov (30 December 2004), pp. 16–17.
24 In Russian the names are ‘Rezervnyi fond’ and ‘Fond natsional’nogo blagosostoyaniya’.
25 Ye. M. Primakov to N. P. Patrushev, 2010 (memo): V. I. Matvienko and S. E. Naryshkin (eds), Neizvestnyi Primakov, vol. 1 (Dokumenty), pp. 416–17, 418 and 420.
26 E. Dąbrowska, ‘The End of the Reserve Fund, the End of an Era’, 4 April 2018.
27 A. K. Pushkov, Putinskie kacheli: P.S. desyatʹ let v okruzhenii, p. 95.
28 See E. Dąbrowska, ‘The End of the Reserve Fund, the End of an Era’, 4 April 2018.
29 E. M. Primakov, Rossiya: Nadezhdy i trevogi, p. 115.
30 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, p. 273.
31 E. M. Primakov, Rossiya: Nadezhdy i trevogi, pp. 71–2.
32 See below, pp. 133–5.
33 European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2009: Transition in Crisis, p. 27.
Chapter 11: Point of Decision: The Reaction to Revolution in Kyiv
1 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
2 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
3 E. M. Primakov, Gody v bol’shoi politike, p. 393. Please note, Primakov wrote this some years before the Crimean annexation
4 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
5 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
6 E. M. Primakov, Gody v bol’shoi politike, p. 393.
7 Russkii Blok programme, Russkii Blok Sevastopolya, no. 18, October 2010.
8 Legendarnyi Sevastopol’, no. 42, September 2010.
9 V. V. Putin, speech to Munich security conference, 10 February 2007: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034
10 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, p. 683.
11 Ibid., p. 671.
12 W. J. Burns to US State Department (cable), 1 February 2008: https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW265_a.html
13 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, pp. 671–2. I am grateful to Jean-Arthur Régibeau, Belgium’s Moscow ambassador, for his exposition of the 2008 situation, 18 January 2018.
14 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, pp. 674–5.
15 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, p. 110.
16 Ibid., p. 111.
17 V. V. Putin, speech to the NATO Bucharest summit (2–4 April 2008): https://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html
18 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, pp. 111–12. I have used the Ukrainian publication of Putin’s speech; see footnote 17 in this chapter.
19 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, p. 116.
20 J. M. Barroso (interview with P. Spiegel), Financial Times, 4 November 2014.
21 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, p. 25.
22 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, p. 532.
23 Ibid., pp. 685–6.
24 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
25 See R. D. Asmus, A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of the West, p. 5.
26 ‘Medvedev Gets Caught Telling the Truth’, RFE/RL, 22 November 2011, http://www.rferl.org/a/medvedev_gets_caught_telling_the_truth/24399004.html, accessed 19 April 2019.
27 See R. D. Asmus, A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of the West, p. 201.
28 V. Jauvert, ‘Histoire secrète d’un revirement, Sarko le Russe’, Nouvel Observateur, 13 November 2008.
29 See R. D. Asmus, A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia and the Future of the West, pp. 212–14.
30 V. V. Putin, speech to the NATO Bucharest summit (2–4 April 2008): https://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html
31 V. V. Putin, interview with ARD TV, 29 August 2008: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30By6n3r_SQ
32 I owe this point to Paul Gregory.
33 ‘Sil’nyi Sevastopol’ – Sil’naya Ukraina’, 2010 flyer: Ukrainian Subject Collection, box 9.
34 A. Popova, ‘Oligarkhi skupayut Krym’, Ponedel’nik, 11 August 2003.
35 Pervaya Krymskaya: informatsionnaya gazeta, 5–11 November 2004: K. Bondarenko Papers (HIA), box 27.
36 R. Allison, ‘Russian “Deniable” Intervention in Ukraine, How and Why Russia Broke the Rules’, International Affairs, no. 6 (2014), p. 1270.
37 See P. Conradi, Who Lost Russia?, p. 262.
38 A. Roxburgh, ‘Russia’s Revenge: Why the West Will Never Understand the Kremlin’, New Statesman, 27 March 2014.
39 Russkaya Pravda (Kyiv), no. 17, September 2010.
40 V. Kirilenko, Pravda pro NATO.
41 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, p. 144.
42 S. Lavrov, ‘Russia–EU: Prospects for Partnership in the Changing World’, Journal of Common Market Studies Annual Review, 14 August 2013: https://www.rusemb.org.uk/article/244
43 I. Shuvalov, ‘Europe’s Fear of Russia is a Rerun of Soviet Mistakes’, Financial Times, 27 January 2014.
44 I. I. Shuvalov, public statement, 9 September 2013: http://www.interfax.com/newsinf.asp?id=442973
45 ‘Sergey Lavrov: The Interview’, National Interest, 29 March 2017, p. 516.
46 J. M. Barroso (interview with P. Spiegel), Financial Times, 4 November 2014.
47 A. Tsygankov, ‘Vladimir Putin’s Last Stand: The Sources of Russia’s Ukraine Policy’, Post-Soviet Affairs, no. 4 (2015), p. 296.
48 ‘Sergey Lavrov: The Interview’, National Interest, 29 March 2017.
49 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
50 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 337.
51 See H. Balzer, ‘The Ukraine Invasion and Public Opinion’, Georgetown Journal of International Affairs, no. 16/1 (2015), pp. 83–90.
52 See D. Treisman, ‘Why Putin Took Crimea: The Gambler in the Kremlin’, Foreign Affairs, no. 3 (2016), pp. 47–54.
53 V. V. Putin (press conference), 19 December 2013, ‘Putin Denies That Troops Will Need to be Sent to Crimea’: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19859
54 Novaya gazeta, 24 February 2015.
55 J. R. Clapper (Director of National Intelligence), ‘Statement for the Record: Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Community’, United States Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 29 January 2014, p. 24.
56 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, p. 29.
57 Ibid., pp. 32–3.
58 Agreement on the Ukrainian Political Crisis, Guardian (online), 21 February 2014: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/21/agreement-on-the-settlement-of-crisis-in-ukraine-full-text
59 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
60 Ibid.
61 Ibid.
Chapter 12: The Inseparable Peninsula: The Annexation of Crimea
1 See http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20322
2 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 336.
3 Krym: put’ na rodinu (documentary film of Andrei Kondrashov), Rossiya-1 TV channel, 15 March 2015.
4 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 336.
5 M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace, pp. 74–5.
6 M. McFaul, Elliott Lecture (St Antony’s College, Oxford), 4 June 2018; M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace, p. 400; S. Rice: https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/meet-press-transcript-feb-23-2014-n36721
7 J. Heintz, ‘Putin: Russia Prepared Raising Nuclear Readiness Over Crimea’, Associated Press, 15 March 2015.
8 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, pp. 364–5; F. Burkhardt, ‘Presidential Power in Putin’s Third Term: Was Crimea a Critical Juncture in Domestic Politics?’, in A. Barbashin, O. Irisova, F. Burkhardt and E. Wyciszkiewicz (eds), A Successful Failure: Russia after Crime(a), p. 137.
9 See R. Allison, ‘Russian “Deniable” Intervention in Ukraine, How and Why Russia Broke the Rules’, International Affairs, no. 6 (2014), p. 1272.
10 Ibid., p. 1262.
11 S. V. Lavrov (press conference, Moscow), 26 January 2016 in S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 37.
12 See R. Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, p. 113.
13 See R. Allison, ‘Russia and the Post-2014 International Legal Order: Revisionism and Realpolitik’, International Affairs, no. 3 (2017), p. 531.
14 Ibid., p. 530.
15 O. Stoun [O. Stone], Interv’yu c Vladimirom Putinym: polnaya versiya, p. 94 (4 July 2015).
16 H. Kissinger, ‘To Settle the Ukraine Crisis, Start at the End’, Washington Post, 5 March 2014.
17 R. M. Gates, Duty: Memoirs of a Secretary at War, pp. 157–8.
18 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
19 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 17 April 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796
20 I owe this insight to Paul Gregory.
21 A. Dugin, Ukraina: moya voina. Geopoliticheskaya dnevnik, p. 59 (7 March 2014).
22 See R. Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, p. 196.
23 Ibid., p. 199.
24 YouTube. Cited by, Nicolai N. Petro, ‘Timeline for Donbass Since the Signing of the Minsk Accords’, unpublished paper. Nicolai N. Petro, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aHWHqj8g7Bk
25 http://vesti-ukr.com/strana/85885-poroshenko-ozvuchil-tri-beskompromissnyh-dlja-sebja-voprosa
26 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
27 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
28 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
29 V. V. Putin, Meeting with St Petersburg Mining University students, 26 January 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47519
30 V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 1, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 11 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51154
31 ‘Sergey Lavrov: The Interview’, National Interest, 29 March 2017. See also Lavrov’s interview with Komsomol’skaya Pravda, 31 May 2016: S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 153.
32 L. Bershidsky, ‘Russian Pensions Paid for Putin’s Crimea Grab’: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2014-06-26/russian-pensions-paid-for-putin-s-crimea-grab
33 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 377.
34 G. Pavlovskii (interview), ‘Putin staraetsya, no on ustal’, Biznes Online, 13 October 2017: https://www.business-gazeta.ru/article/360564
35 V. V. Putin, annual presidential address to the Federal Assembly, 4 December 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47173
36 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
37 ‘Vtoraya kholodnaya’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 15 October 2014.
38 N. P. Patrushev (interview), ‘Voiny i miry’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 18 May 2017: https://rg.ru/2017/05/18/nikolaj-patrushev-ob-ukraine-i-ssha-kiberatakah-sirii.html
39 See R. Legvold, Return to Cold War, p. 137.
Chapter 13: Transatlantic Obsession: Troubles with America
1 J. Vinokur, ‘Merkel is Dancing with a Bear’, New York Times, 21 July 2011.
2 M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace, pp. 222–3.
3 N. von Twickel, ‘Biden “Opposes” 3rd Putin Term’, Moscow Times, 11 March 2011.
4 M. McFaul, From Cold War to Hot Peace, p. 262.
5 H. R. Clinton, remarks at Tolerance Centre (Vilnius), 6 December 2011: https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/12/178313. htm
6 V. V. Putin, speech to Russian Popular Front’s Coordinating Council, 8 December 2011: http://archive.premier.gov.ru/ru/events/news/17330/print/
7 H. R. Clinton, Hard Choices: A Memoir, p. 209.
8 V. Nuland, conversation with Ambassador Geoffrey Pyatt: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0JVnYe7CzQ
9 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (12 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
10 V. V. Putin (interview), Le Figaro, 31 May 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54638
11 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
12 J. D. Goodman, ‘Microphone Catches a Candid Obama’, New York Times, 26 March 2012.
13 CNN interview with Wolf Blitzer, 26 March 2012: http://cnnpressroom.blogs.cnn.com/2012/03/26/romney-russia-is-our-number-one-geopolitical-foe/
14 J. McCain, ‘Obama Has Made America Look Weak’, New York Times, 15 March 2014.
15 ‘Wrestling with an Aging Arsenal’, New York Times, 28 November 2014.
16 US Department of Defense Cyber Guard 16 Sheet, accessed 2 May 2016: https://www.defense.gov/Portals/1/features/2015/0415_cyber-strategy/Cyber-Guard-16-FactSheet-FINAL.pdf
17 W. J. Lynn, ‘The End of the Military-Industrial Complex’, Foreign Affairs, November/December 2014, p. 106.
18 W. A. Galston, ‘Dissecting Obama’s Foreign Policy, America Self-Contained’, The American Interest, no. 5 (May/June 2014), p. 31.
19 NBC interview by Megyn Kelly, 2 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54688
20 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (12 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
21 Author’s conversation with Michael McFaul, 9 August 2017 (Stanford, CA).
22 The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 39.
23 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
24 Author’s conversation with Michael McFaul, 9 August 2017 (Stanford, CA).
25 See below, pp. 239–40.
26 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, p. 99.
27 S. V. Lavrov, interview with Komsomol’skaya Pravda, 31 May 2016: S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 160.
28 See, for example, S. V. Lavrov’s lecture at General Staff Academy, 23 March 2017: ibid., p. 464.
29 H. Kissinger, ‘To Settle the Ukraine Crisis, Start at the End’, Washington Post, 5 March 2014.
30 V. V. Putin, meeting with H. Kissinger, 29 October 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19509
31 I have this information from State Department officials.
32 Author’s conversation with Henry Kissinger in Washington DC, December 2017.
33 M. McFaul, ‘To Beat Ukraine, Support Ukraine’, New York Times, 8 August 2014.
34 S. V. Lavrov, Q&A in ‘Government Hour’ in State Duma, 25 January 2017: S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 430.
35 V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 2, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 12 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155
36 Ibid.
37 V. V. Putin, press conference, 18 December 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47250
38 Umberto Bacchi, ‘Russia Issues Nuclear Threat over Crimea and Baltic States’, International Business Times, 2 April 2015, in D. Satter, The Less You Know, the Better You Sleep, p. 163.
39 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
40 Ibid.
41 N. P. Patrushev (interview), Sputnik International, 1 November 2016: https://sputniknews.com/interviews/201611011046936463-patrushev-exclusive-interview/
42 N. P. Patrushev (interview), Moskovskii komsomolets, 16 January 2016.
43 C. Cillizza, Washington Post, 6 September 2016.
Chapter 14: Continental Disruptions: Russia’s Penetration of Europe
1 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 22 October 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548
2 O. Stoun [O. Stone], Interv’yu c Vladimirom Putinym: polnaya versiya, p. 58 (3 July 2015).
3 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, p. 530.
4 Ibid., p. 360.
5 V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 1, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 11 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51154
6 V. Yakunin, The Treacherous Path, p. 15.
7 M. Zygar’, Vsya kremlëvskaya rat’: kratkaya istoriya sovremennoi Rossii, p. 306.
8 F. A. Lukyanov, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
9 E. Servettas, ‘How to Avoid Sanctions Like Sergei Naryshkin’, The Interpreter, 16 April 2014: http://www.interpretermag.com/how-to-avoid-sanctions-like-sergei-naryshkin
10 S. Naryshkin, ‘Slabost’ Bol’shoi Evropy’, Izvestiya, 21 December 2015.
11 K. Willsher, ‘France Looking for Warship Buyers After Cancelling Mistral Deal with Russia’, Guardian, 5 August 2015.
12 O. Faye and B. Vitkine, ‘La justice russe saisie sur le prêt bancaire consenti au Front National’, Le Monde, 4 January 2017.
13 C. Bigg, ‘French Far-Right Party Took Loan from Russian Bank’, RFE/RL, 24 November 2014: https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-france-national-front-loan-le-pen/26707339.html
14 V. V. Putin and M. Le Pen (meeting), 24 March 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54102
15 Afternoon news item, Rossiya-1 TV channel, 24 March 2017: https://www.1tv.ru/news/2017-03-24/322179-marin_le_pen_pribyla_s_vizitom_v_rossiyu_vstretilas_s_vladimirym_putinym_i_deputatami_gosdumy
16 V. V. Putin and M. Le Pen (meeting), 24 March 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54102
17 Le Point, 25 March 2017.
18 Ibid.
19 V. V. Putin, speech at the Katyn memorial meeting, 7 April 2010: https://dassie2001.livejournal.com/52206.html. This speech was once in the online record of Putin’s statements as Prime Minister but has been taken down: a sign of subsequent official sensitivity about appearing concessive to neighbouring countries?
20 V. R. Medinskii, meeting of the ‘Victory’ organizational committee, 22 April 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/54347
21 Ye. Pismennaya and A. Andrianova, ‘Russia’s $70 Billion “Secret” Spending Lets Money Do the Talking’, Bloomberg Politics, 25 July 2017: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/russia-s-70-billion-secret-spending-lets-money-do-the-talking
22 K. Than, ‘Inside Hungary’s $10.8 Billion Nuclear Deal with Russia’, Reuters World News, 30 March 2015: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-europe-hungary-specialreport/special-report-inside-hungarys-10-8-billion-nuclear-deal-with-russia-idUSKBN0MQ0MP20150330
23 Financial Times, 2 February 2017.
24 V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 1, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 11 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51154
25 V. V. Putin, press conference (Hangzhou), 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/52834
26 M. Birnbaum, ‘We Still Don’t Know Who Will Lead Italy. But One Clear Winner is the Kremlin’, Washington Post, 23 March 2018.
27 See A. Shekhovtsev, Russia and the Western Far Right: Tango Noir, pp. 187–9.
Chapter 15: Political Order: Parties, Elections, Parliaments
1 R. Person, ‘Potholes, Pensions, and Public Opinion: The Politics of Blame in Putin’s Power Vertical’, Post-Soviet Affairs, no. 5 (2015), pp. 441.
2 See P. Chaisty, Legislative Politics and Economic Power in Russia, pp. 193–7.
3 See A. Wilson, Virtual Politics: Faking Democracy in the Post-Soviet World, pp. 260–5.
4 D. Orlov, ‘Politicheskaya doktrina suverennoi demokratii’, Izvestiya, 30 November 2006.
5 See V. Semënov, Surkov i ego propaganda: fenomen glavnogo ideologa Kremlya, pp. 89–90.
6 Ibid., p. 89.
7 ‘Prais-list loyal’nosti’, Novaya gazeta, 12 April 2007.
8 See above, p. 55.
9 G. Pavlovsky, ‘Putin’s World Outlook: Interview with Tom Parfitt’, New Left Review, July/August 2014, p. 57.
10 Ibid., p. 61.
11 Ibid.
12 C. Rice, No Higher Honor, p. 360.
13 See P. Chaisty, Legislative Politics and Economic Power in Russia, p. 127.
14 See B. Noble and E. Shulman, ‘Not Just a Rubber Stamp, Parliament and Lawmaking’ in D. Treisman (ed.), The New Autocracy: Information, Politics, and Policy in Putin’s Russia, pp. 58 and 62–3.
15 See V. Semënov, Surkov i ego propaganda: fenomen glavnogo ideologa Kremlya, p. 105.
16 B. Noble and E. Shulman, ‘Not Just a Rubber Stamp, Parliament and Lawmaking’ in D. Treisman (ed.), The New Autocracy: Information, Politics, and Policy in Putin’s Russia, pp. 54–6; M. Bennetts, I’m Going to Ruin Their Lives: Inside Putin’s War on Russia’s Opposition, p. 156.
17 D. A. Medvedev, report to the State Duma on governmental activity in the years 2012–2017 (11 April 2018): government.ru/news/32246
18 ‘Legislation to Limit Garlic Use’, Moscow Times, 2 April 2013.
19 G. Pavlovskii (interview), 3 May 2018: https://newtimes.ru/articles/detail/160874
20 See V. Semënov, Surkov i ego propaganda: fenomen glavnogo ideologa Kremlya, p. 213.
21 V. V. Putin, Activities’ Forum of the All-Russia Popular Front, 18 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47036
22 V. V. Putin, interview with TASS, 24 November 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47054
23 Ibid.
24 See D. Skillen, Freedom of Speech in Russia: Politics and Media from Gorbachev to Putin, pp. 317–18.
25 See L. Harding, Mafia State: How One Reporter Became an Enemy of the Brutal New Russia; K. Dawisha, Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?
26 P. Reddaway, Russia’s Domestic Security Wars: Putin’s Use of Divide and Rule Against His Hardline Allies, p. 14.
27 V. V. Putin, annual press conference, 14 December 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56378
Chapter 16: Media Pressures: TV, Press and the Internet
1 O. Stoun [O. Stone], Interv’yu c Vladimirom Putinym: polnaya versiya, p. 28 (3 July 2015).
2 See D. Skillen, Freedom of Speech in Russia: Politics and Media from Gorbachev to Putin, p. 295.
3 A. Dubnov, ‘Osoboe mnenie’, Ekho Moskvy, 10 May 2017: http://echo.msk.ru/programs/personalno/1977880-echo
4 See above, p. 25.
5 Meeting of V. V. Putin with 30 leading media figures, 18 January 2012: http://archive.premier.gov.ru/events/news/17798/print/
6 Ibid.
7 See D. Skillen, Freedom of Speech in Russia: Politics and Media from Gorbachev to Putin, p. 311.
8 Ibid., p. 307.
9 Ibid., p. 310.
10 Ibid., p. 70.
11 D. K. Kiselëv, ‘Vesti nedeli’, Rossiya-1 TV channel, 10 August 2013: www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KGVUhdqsMQ
12 See D. Skillen, Freedom of Speech in Russia: Politics and Media from Gorbachev to Putin, p. 70.
13 A. K. Pushkov, Putinskie kacheli: P.S. desyatʹ let v okruzhenii, p. 16.
14 https://in.reuters.com/video/2018/01/19/putin-strips-off-takes-dip-in-icy-waters?videoId=387166500
15 See http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53211
16 See D. Skillen, Freedom of Speech in Russia: Politics and Media from Gorbachev to Putin, p. 307.
17 Ibid., p. 332.
18 Ibid., p. 287.
19 ‘Doktrina informatsionnoi bezopasnosti Rossiiskoi Federatsii’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 6 December 2017: https://rg.ru/2016/12/06/doktrina-infobezopasnost-site-dok.html
20 See A. Soldatov and I. Borogan, The Red Web: The Kremlin’s War on the Internet, p. 264.
21 V. V. Putin, Mediaforum plenary session, 24 April 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20858
22 M. Elder, ‘Russia Threatens to Ban BuzzFfeed’, 5 December 2014: https://www.buzzfeed.com/miriamelder/russia-threatens-to-ban-buzzfeed?utm_term=.kj2kl4GdwV#.luzW3k1e0Y
23 See A. Soldatov and I. Borogan, The Red Web: The Kremlin’s War on the Internet, p. 272.
24 Ibid., p. 216.
25 Ibid., pp. 234–5.
26 Ibid., pp. 209–10.
27 Ibid., p. 211.
28 Ibid., p. 215.
29 ‘Russian Internet-Isolation Bill Advances, Despite Doubts in Duma’, RFE/RL, 12 February 2019: https://www.rferl.org/a/russian-bill-on-autonomous-operation-of-internet-advances-in-duma/29765882.html
30 See V. Semënov, Surkov i ego propaganda: fenomen glavnogo ideologa Kremlya, p. 109.
31 I. Nagornykh, I. Safronov and Ye. Chernenko, ‘S “tsvetnykh revolyutsii” khotyat snyat’ kamuflyazh’, Kommersant, 4 March 2015.
Chapter 17: Russian Soft Power: Global Charm Offensive
1 A. Roxburgh, The Strongman: Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia, pp. xi–xii.
2 V. V. Putin, ‘A Plea for Caution from Russia’, New York Times, 12 September 2013.
3 Ibid.
4 A. Roxburgh, The Strongman: Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia, pp. xii and 184–5.
5 Ibid., p. 185.
6 Ibid., p. 186.
7 Ibid., p. 190.
8 Ibid., pp. xii and 184–5.
9 I. Kottasova, ‘Putin Drops His American PR Company’, CNNMoney, 12 March 2015: https://money.cnn.com/2015/03/12/media/russia-putin-pr-ketchum/index.html
10 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
11 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
12 ‘“Valdai” prinyal zhelaemoe za deistvitel’nym’, Moskovskii komsomolets, 13 November 2011.
13 Ibid.
14 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
15 Ibid.
16 A. Roxburgh, The Strongman: Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia, p. 195.
17 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 24 October 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/46860
18 A. Roxburgh, The Strongman: Vladimir Putin and the Struggle for Russia, p. 195.
19 R. Gray, ‘Pro-Putin Think Tank Based in New York Shuts Down’, BuzzFeed News, 30 June 2015: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/rosiegray/pro-putin-think-tank-based-in-new-york-shuts-down
20 M. Simonyan (Russia Today), meeting of the ‘Victory’ organizational committee, 22 April 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/54347
21 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
22 J. Stubbs and G. Gibson, ‘Russia’s RT America Registers as “Foreign Agent” in U.S.’, Reuters, 13 November 2017: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-restrictions-rt/russias-rt-america-registers-as-foreign-agent-in-u-s-idUSKBN1DD25B
23 P. Nikolskaya and A. Osborn, ‘Russia to Amend Law to Classify U.S. Media “Foreign Agents”’, Reuters, 10 November 2017: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-media-restrictions/russia-to-amend-law-to-classify-us-media-foreign-agents-idUSKBN1DA1HH
24 See the discussion in https://trendjackers.com/russia-today-provocative-adverts-london-underground/. I am grateful to Liz Teague for drawing this to my attention
25 Personal observation, Sheremetevo airport, 19 January 2018.
26 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 4 (June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tMMakf1rvVM
27 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 1 (16 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
Chapter 18: Public Opinion: The Potential for Unrest
1 See G. Hosking, Russia and the Russians: From Earliest Times to the Present Day; A. Ledeneva, Can Russia Modernise? Sistema, Power Networks and Informal Governance; R. Service, Russia: Experiment with a People, pp. 84–5 and 92.
2 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
3 T. Frye, S. Gehlbach, K. L. Marquardt and O. J. Reuter, ‘Is Putin’s Popularity Real?’, Post-Soviet Affairs, no. 1 (2017), pp. 8–15.
4 Levada Centre survey, 8 May 2018: https://www.levada.ru/en/2018/05/08/societal-problems. The survey was conducted on 19–23 January 2018 with the question: ‘Which of the Following Societal Problems Worry You Most of All and Seem Most Severe to You?’
5 Levada Centre survey, 21 April 2017, https://www.levada.ru/en/2017/04/21/corruption. The survey was conducted between 2 and 7 March 2017
6 Levada Centre survey, 8 May 2018: https://www.levada.ru/en/2018/05/08/societal-problems. The survey was conducted on 19–23 January 2018 with the question: ‘Which of the Following Societal Problems Worry You Most of All and Seem Most Severe to You?’
7 www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/35260 through to 35270
8 Cabinet meeting, 12 September 2013: http://government.ru/news/4804. See also A. Monaghan, Power in Modern Russia: Strategy and Mobilisation, pp. 61–2.
9 Levada Centre, November 2018: https://www.levada.ru/indikatory/odobrenie-organov-vlasti
10 VTsIOM survey, 8 February 2018, no. 2036: https://wciom.com/index.php?id=61&uid=1498. This survey was conducted between 29 January and 4 February 2018.
11 Levada Centre survey, 2 December 2016: https://www.levada.ru/en/2016/12/02/sanctions-4/
12 G. Petelin, ‘Rossiyane stali sil’nee boyat’sya yadernoi voiny’, Gazeta.ru, 10 July 2015.
13 A. L. Kudrin, ‘Ustoichivyi ekonomicheskii rost: model’ dlya Rossii’, Gaidar Forum, 13 January 2017.
14 Federal State Statistical Service, Russia in Figures, p. 119.
15 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, p. 102.
16 Interview with M. A. Topilin, Izvestiya, 25 June 2018.
17 Levada Centre poll, 22–26 June 2018: https://www.levada.ru/2018/07/03/doverie-politikam
18 VTsIOM poll, 5 August 2018: https://wciom.ru/news/ratings/doverie_politikam
19 Levada Centre poll, 18–24 October 2018: https://www.levada.ru/2018/11/22/19281
20 VTsIOM poll, 5 August 2018: ‘Ratings of State Institutions’.
21 VTsIOM poll, 5 August 2018: ‘Electoral Rating of Political Parties’.
22 Levada Centre poll, 18–24 October 2018: https://www.levada.ru/2018/11/22/19281
23 E. Paneyakh, ‘V Rossii poyavilsya zapros na chestnuyu vlast’ i mirolyubie’, Vedomosti, 27 December 2018.
24 V. V. Putin, address to citizens of Russia, 29 August 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58405
25 See H. E. Hale, ‘The Myth of Mass Russian Support for Autocracy: The Public Opinion Foundations of a Hybrid Regime’, Europe-Asia Studies, no. 8 (2011), pp. 1370–5.
26 VTsIOM poll, 5 August 2018: https://wciom.ru/news/ratings/doverie_politikam
27 VTsIOM poll, July 2018: ‘Ratings of Social Institutions’.
Chapter 19: Knocking Down Skittles: The Flooring of the Political Opposition
1 ‘Tezisy po ekonomicheskomu krizisu v Rossii’, 28 February 2009: Rossiiskaya Ob”edinënnaya Demokraticheskaya Partiya ‘Yabloko’: Politicheskii otchët; Dokumenty, 2008–2011, p. 16 in Russian Subject Collection (HIA), box 65.
2 Ibid., pp. 15–16 and 32.
3 Ibid.
4 B. Nemtsov, Ispoved’ buntarya, p. 52.
5 B. Ye. Nemtsov to B. N. Yeltsin, n.d. but some time in 1995 after 14 June 1995: Vladimir Pribylovsky Papers (HIA), box 18, folder 9.
6 See A. Knight, Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder, p. 263.
7 See D. J. Smith, ‘Russian Cyber Operations’, Potomac Institute Cyber Center, July 2012, p. 4.
8 B. Ye. Nemtsov (selfie by unknown Ukrainian in Kyiv), April 2014: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YuMtk75UURc
9 V. Prokhorov, ‘Where are the Organizers, Mr Putin? Did You Fail This Case?’, Institute of Modern Russia, 14 December 2017: https://imrussia.org/en/opinions/2887-vadim-prokhorov-%E2%80%9Cwhere-are-the-organizers,-mr-putin-did-you-fail-this-case%E2%80%9D
10 Author’s interview with Vadim Prokhorov, 18 October 2018.
11 See A. Knight, Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder, p. 265.
12 A. Naval’nyi, ‘Ob ubiistve Borisa Nemtsova’, 3 March 2015: https://navalny.com/p/4156
13 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
14 G. Pavlovsky, ‘Russian Politics Under Putin: The System Will Outlast the Master’, Foreign Affairs, May–June 2016, pp. 10–17.
15 See A. Knight, Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder, p. 265.
16 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 21.
17 See S. Medvedev, Park krymskogo perioda, p. 299.
18 V. Kara-Murza, ‘After Years of Battling Nemtsov, the Kremlin Battles His Memory’, World Affairs, 28 September 2017.
19 RT report, 28 February 2015: https://russian.rt.com/article/76831
20 V. Prokhorov, ‘Where are the Organizers, Mr Putin? Did You Fail This Case?’, Institute of Modern Russia, 14 December 2017: https://imrussia.org/en/opinions/2887-vadim-prokhorov-%E2%80%9Cwhere-are-the-organizers,-mr-putin-did-you-fail-this-case%E2%80%9D; author’s interview with Vadim Prokhorov, 18 October 2018
21 I. Yashin, Ulichnyi Protest, pp. 9 and 11.
22 A. Navalnyi, ‘Yakhty, oligarkhi, devochki: okhotnitsa na muzhchin razo-blachaet vzyatochnika’, 8 February 2018, observed on 8 April 2018: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQZr2NgKPiU&feature=youtu.be
23 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 101.
24 Interview with A. Navalnyi, in K. Voronkov, Aleksei Naval’nyi: Groza zhulikov i vorov, pp. 22–3.
25 Ibid., p. 28.
26 A. Mukhin and A. Gafarova, Naval’nyi: itogi, p. 15.
27 Ibid., p. 24.
28 Ibid., p. 20.
29 Russian Subject Collection (HIA), box 68.
30 A. Mukhin and A. Gafarova, Naval’nyi: itogi, p. 42.
31 Ibid., p. 97; M. Bennetts, I’m Going to Ruin Their Lives: Inside Putin’s War on Russia’s Opposition, pp. 244–7.
32 A. Mukhin and A. Gafarova, Naval’nyi: itogi, p. 97.
33 See A. Knight, Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder, p. 301.
34 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 92.
35 A. Navalnyi, ‘How to Punish Putin’, New York Times, 20 March 2014.
36 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 86.
37 A. Navalnyi, ‘Sbityi focus’ (interview), Ekho Moskvy, 15 October 2014: https://echo.msk.ru/programs/focus/1417522-echo.html
38 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 92.
39 Ibid., p. 83.
40 Ibid., pp. 83–4.
41 Ibid., pp. 76–7.
42 Ibid., pp. 53–4.
43 Ibid., p. 78.
44 Ibid., p. 59.
45 Ibid., p. 58.
46 Ilya Azar, ‘Ushchemlënnyi russkii’ (interview of A. Navalnyi), 4 November 2011: https://lenta.ru/articles/2011/11/04/navalnyi
47 Ibid.
48 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 73.
49 Ibid., p. 56.
50 Ibid., p. 57.
51 Ibid., p. 67.
52 Ibid., p. 72.
53 Ibid., p. 78.
54 ‘Naval’nyi vozglavil “Narodnyi al’yans”’, 17 November 2013: http://www.interfax.ru/russia/341325
55 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 47.
56 Ibid., pp. 76–7.
57 Ibid., p. 41.
58 ‘Aktsii protesta 26 marta i Navalny: Levada-Tsentr, 6 April 2017.
59 VTsIOM poll, 2 September 2018: https://wciom.ru/news/ratings/doverie_politikam
60 A. Michnik and A. Navalnyi, Dialogi, p. 64.
61 Ibid., p. 233.
Chapter 20: Eternal Vigilance: The Unbroken Rise of the Security State
1 See Sluzhba bezopasnosti, no. 1/2 (1994), pp. 7–14 and 55–9; no. 1/2 (1998), p. 74; no. 3/4 (1998), pp. 20–1.
2 Ibid., no. 1 (1999).
3 See J. Fedor, Russia and the Cult of State Security: The Chekist Tradition, From Lenin to Putin, p. 139.
4 V. V. Putin, speech, 30 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55948
5 V. Kara-Murza, ‘Putin Unveils Memorial to Victims of Soviet Repression, While His Own Repression Continues’, World Affairs, 31 October 2017.
6 V. V. Putin, expanded session of the FSB board, 16 February 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53883
7 Putin’s meeting with permanent members of the Security Council, 8 November 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56021
8 M. Kasyanov, Bez Putina: politicheskie dialogi s Yevgeniem Kiselëvym, p. 165.
9 V. V. Putin, FSB Board meeting, 26 March 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49006
10 News item, 5 September 2017: https://www.nakanune.ru/news/2017/09/05/22481771
11 V. V. Putin (news conference), 19 December 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/19859
12 I. Nagornykh, I. Safronov and Ye. Chernenko, ‘S “tsvetnykh revolyutsii” khotyat snyat’ kamuflyazh’, Kommersant, 4 March 2015.
13 ‘Federal’nyi zakon Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 6 marta g. N 35-FZ’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 10 March 2006 (available at http://www.rg.ru/2006/03/10/borba-terrorizm.html)
14 ITAR-TASS report, 28 June 2006.
15 Report in vesti-ru, 28 June 2006.
16 Kommersant, 12 July 2006.
17 Moscow News, 29 December 2006.
18 ‘Federal’nyi zakon Rossiiskoi Federatsii ot 27 iyulya 2006 g. N 148-FZ’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 29 July 2006 (available at http://www.rg.ru/2006/07/29/ekstremizm-protivodejstvie-dok.html)
19 ‘FSB Will Soon Run Operations Abroad’, Moscow Times, 8 June 2006.
20 See L. Harding, A Very Expensive Poison, pp. 387–94; O. Bullough, Moneyland: Why Thieves and Crooks Now Rule the World and How to Take It Back, p. 207.
21 D. Allan, ‘Managed Confrontation: UK Policy Towards Russia After the Salisbury Attack’, pp. 2–5.
22 D. Trenin, Rossiya i mir v XXI veke, p. 174.
23 S. V. Lavrov (press conference, Moscow), 26 January 2016 in S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 66.
24 V. V. Putin, press conference after Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Qingdao, China, 10 June 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/57719
25 V. V. Putin, press conference, 3 October 2018: https://tass.ru/politika/5632623
26 V. V. Putin, FSB Board meeting, 26 March 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49006
27 Ibid.
28 N. P. Patrushev (interview), ‘Voiny i miry’, Rossiiskaya gazeta, 18 May 2017: https://rg.ru/2017/05/18/nikolaj-patrushev-ob-ukraine-i-ssha-kiberatakah-sirii.html
29 V. V. Putin, FSB Board meeting, 26 February 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51397
30 Ibid.
31 V. V. Putin, expanded session of the FSB board, 16 February 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53883
32 Ye. Milashina, ‘Khalifat? Primanka dlya durakov!’, Novaya gazeta, 29 July 2015.
33 M. Tsvetkova, ‘How Russia Allowed Homegrown Radicals to Go and Fight in Syria’, Reuters Investigates, 13 May 2016.
34 Putin, speech to Northern Fleet officers, 23 February 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53940
35 J. Schechtman, D. Volz and J. Stubbs, ‘Under Pressure, Western Firms Bow to Russian Demands to Share Cyber Secrets’, Reuters, 23 June 2017: http://www.reuters.com/article/uk-usa-russia-tech-insight-idUSKBN19E0XB
36 I. Murtazin, ‘Troyanovskii kod’, Novaya gazeta, 26 January 2017 and ‘Komu shest’ let “Shaltai”’, Novaya gazeta, 2 February 2017.
37 ‘Full Transcript: Acting FBI Director McCabe and Others Testify Before the Senate Intelligence Committee’, Washington Post, 11 May 2017.
38 ABC News, 24 May 2017: http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/classified-senate-briefing-expands-include-russian-cyber-firm/story?id=47619783
39 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 17 April 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/20796
40 See A. Soldatov and I. Borogan, The Red Web: The Kremlin’s War on the Internet, pp. 207–8 and 221–2.
41 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 2 (13 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j01kF7UQr0Y
42 Ibid.
43 Komsomolskaya Pravda, 20 December 2000.
44 A. Litvinenko, LPG – Lubyanskaya Prestupnaya Gruppirovka. Ofitser FSB daët pokazaniya, pp. 105–7.
45 Ibid., pp. 68 ff.
46 Ibid., p. 82.
47 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/law-and-order/11364900/Listen-Alexander-Litvinenkos-apparent-warning-before-his-death.html. See also A. Litvinenko’s (undated) letter to the Italian parliamentary commission on the Mitrokhin dossier
48 See K. Dawisha, Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?, p. 329.
49 Ibid., pp. 135–41.
50 Confidential information from Louis Skyner: SSEES Conference, 5 November 2017.
51 See P. Reddaway, Russia’s Domestic Security Wars: Putin’s Use of Divide and Rule Against His Hardline Allies, pp. 43–62.
Chapter 21: Military Renewal: A Great Power Prepares
1 See R. Allison, ‘Russian “Deniable” Intervention in Ukraine, How and Why Russia Broke the Rules’, International Affairs, no. 6 (2014), p. 1272.
2 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), p. 176.
3 Defense Intelligence Agency [USA], Russia Military Power: Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations: http://www.dia.mil/Military-Power-Publications, p. 20.
4 Ibid.
5 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), tables 2 and 4.
6 Ibid., table 2.
7 S. K. Shoigu, Defence Ministry Board meeting, 22 December 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53571
8 Russian Military Doctrine (amended), 26 December 2014: http://www.scrf.gov.ru/security/military/document129/
9 V. V. Putin, speech to expanded board of the Defence Ministry, 19 December 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47257
10 Russian Military Doctrine (amended), 26 December 2014: http://www.scrf.gov.ru/security/military/document129/
11 V. V. Putin, interview with Radio Europe 1 and the TF1 TV channel, 4 June 2014: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/45832
12 V. V. Putin, interview with Corriere della Sera, 6 June 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49629. See also The Putin Interviews (book transcripts), p. 119.
13 Defense Intelligence Agency [USA], Russia Military Power: Building a Military to Support Great Power Aspirations: http://www.dia.mil/Military-Power-Publications, p. 31.
14 Ibid.
15 Russian Military Doctrine (amended), 26 December 2014: http://www.scrf.gov.ru/security/military/document129/
16 Federal law (Russia), 3 October 2016: http://asozd2.duma.gov.ru/addwork/scans.nsf/ID/C4294ACB989FB546432580410044CB71/$File/1186208-6_03102016_1186208-6.PDF?OpenElement. I am grateful to Michael Bernstam for drawing this law to my attention and discussing its implications and importance
17 P. Felgenhauer, ‘Russia’s Relations with the West Deteriorate as Military Prepares for “Resource Wars”’, Eurasia Daily Monitor, vol. 13, no. 177 (3 November 2016).
18 I. Safronov, ‘Esli ne skhod, to razval’, Kommersant, 17 September 2016.
19 See P. Hanson, ‘Managing the Economy’, in H. E. Hale, R. Sakwa and S. White, Developments in Russian Politics, p. 145.
20 V. V. Putin, interview with Corriere della Sera, 6 June 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49629
21 S. K. Shoigu, Defence Ministry Board meeting, 22 December 2016: http//kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53571
22 T. Batchelor, ‘British Troops are Deployed in Estonia and Poland’, Independent on Sunday, 5 February 2017.
23 M. Boulègue, ‘Five Things to Know About the Zapad-2017 Military Exercise’.
24 R. Sikorski, interview with Zh. Nemtsova, Deutsche Welle, 10 October 2018.
25 M. Boulègue, ‘Five Things to Know About the Zapad-2017 Military Exercise’.
26 The Vostok-2018 military exercise is dealt with below, pp. 293–4.
27 M. Gordon, ‘Russia Deploys Missile, Violating Treaty and Challenging Trump’, New York Times, 14 February 2017.
Chapter 22: Tranquillity of the Graveyard: Chechnya Under Kadyrov
1 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 24.
2 Ibid., p. 23.
3 J. Longman, ‘Mo Salah, Now Starring in Chechnya’, New York Times, 11 June 2018.
4 V. V. Putin, presidential address to Federal Assembly, 25 April 2005: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/22931
5 P. Baumgartner, ‘Kadyrov’s Snow Job’, RFE/RL, 24 January 2018.
6 ‘Siluanov rasskazal, kak popolnyaetsya byudzhet Chechni’, Vedomosti, 26 July 2018.
7 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 23; The Family (Open Russia documentary film): https://www.khodorkovsky.com/the-family-a-film-about-ramzan-kadyrov
8 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 25.
9 ‘Kadyrov poprosil uvelichit’ federal’nye dotatsii Chechne iz-za rosta rozhdae-mosti’, Vedomosti, 27 September 2018.
10 Meeting of V. V. Putin and R. A. Kadyrov, 25 March 2016: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/146/events/51567
11 Meeting of V. V. Putin and R. A. Kadyrov, 19 April 2017: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/146/events/54342
12 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 25 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17976
13 R. A. Kadyrov (interview): ‘Putin – dar bozhii’, Kommersant Vlast’, 18 June 2007.
14 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 40.
15 Author’s interview with Vadim Prokhorov, Navalnyi’s former lawyer, 18 October 2018.
16 L. Fuller, ‘Chechnya’s Kadyrov, Rosneft Again at Odds’, RFE/RL, 23 August 2017.
17 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 12.
18 Ibid., p. 17.
19 See A. Knight, Orders to Kill: The Putin Regime and Political Murder, pp. 198 and 289.
20 Ibid., p. 289.
21 ‘Kadyrov Officially Sanctions Collective Responsibility for Families of Terrorists’, Open Caucasus Media, 20 April 2017: http://oc-media.org/kadyrov-officially-sanctions-collective-responsibility-for-families-of-terrorists
22 L. Fuller, ‘Analysis: Grozny Fatwa on “True Believers” Triggers Major Controversy’, RFE/RL, 14 September 2016.
23 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 17.
24 Ye. Milashina, ‘Ubiistvo chesti’, Novaya gazeta, 3 April 2017.
25 K. Hille, ‘Chechen Ruler Hits Out at Russia Over Myanmar Policy’, Financial Times, 4 September 2018.
26 Ye. Milashina, ‘Nevol’nik mesti’, Nezavisimaya gazeta, 6 August 2018.
27 K. Hille, ‘How Chechnya’s Ramzan Kadyrov Could Destabilize Russia’, Financial Times, 23 August 2018.
28 I. Yashin, A Threat to National Security, p. 17.
Chapter 23: Imperial Instinct: Moscow and the ‘Near Abroad’
1 A. L. Kudrin, ‘Ustoichivyi ekonomicheskii rost: model’ dlya Rossii’, Gaidar Forum, 13 January 2017.
2 See N. Robinson, Contemporary Russian Politics: An Introduction, pp. 143–4 and 147. See also C. Ross, ‘Federalisation and Defederalisation in Russia’, in G. Gill and J. Young (eds), Routledge Handbook of Russian Politics and Society, pp. 143–4.
3 See N. Taylor, Estonia: A Modern History, p. 197.
4 R. Sikorski, Polska może być lepsza, p. 242.
5 R. Allison, ‘Russia and the Post-2014 International Legal Order: Revisionism and Realpolitik’, International Affairs, no. 3 (2017), pp. 532–3 and 538–9.
6 See R. Allison, ‘Protective Integration and Security Policy Coordination: Comparing the SCO and CSTO’, Chinese Journal of International Relations, no. 3 (2018), pp. 325, 328 and 330.
7 See R. Dragneva and K. Wolczuk, ‘The Eurasian Economic Union: Deals, Rules and the Exercise of Power’, p. 6.
8 Ibid., p. 20.
9 Ibid.
10 Ibid., pp. 21–2.
11 I base this finding on a trawl of Putin’s speeches for the year 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news
12 ‘Nazarbaev zayavil o vozmozhnom vykhode Kazakhstana iz Evraziiskogo soyuza’, newsru.com, 31 August 2014: https://www.newsru.com/world/31aug2014/nazarbaev.html
13 See R. Dragneva and K. Wolczuk, ‘The Eurasian Economic Union: Deals, Rules and the Exercise of Power’, p. 9.
14 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, pp. 284–5.
15 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, pp. 146–7.
Chapter 24: Economic Shock: Western Sanctions and the Oil Price Tumble
1 TASS Russian News Agency report, 31 March 2015.
2 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, p. 152.
3 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), footnote 12.
4 See C. Miller, Putinomics: Power and Money in Resurgent Russia, pp. 154–5.
5 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 15 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54790
6 Ibid.
7 Washington Examiner, 30 November 2017.
8 V. V. Putin, interview with Bloomberg TV, 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52830
9 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
10 C. G. Gaddy and B. Ickes, ‘Ukraine: A Prize Neither Russia Nor the West Can Afford to Win’, Brookings Research Articles (Washington DC, 2014): https://www.brookings.edu/articles/ukraine-a-prize-neither-russia-nor-the-west-can-afford-to-win/
11 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), p. 186.
12 See R. Sakwa, Frontline Ukraine: Crisis in the Borderlands, p. 195.
13 See S. Medvedev, Park krymskogo perioda, p. 199.
14 ‘Direct Line’ multichannel TV interview with V. V. Putin, 16 April 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/49261
15 Ibid.
16 Ibid.
17 See R. Connolly, Russia’s Response to Sanctions: How Western Economic Statecraft is Reshaping Political Economy in Russia, pp. 69–73.
18 S. Wengle, ‘The Domestic Effects of the Russian Food Embargo’, Demokratizatsiya, no. 3 (2016), p. 283.
19 R. Connolly makes this case in Russia’s Response to Sanctions: How Western Economic Statecraft is Reshaping Political Economy in Russia, pp. 192–4.
20 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), p. 185.
21 https://www.currency-converter.org.uk/currency-rates/historical/table/USD-RUB.html
22 P. Hanson, ‘Managing the Economy’, in H. E. Hale, R. Sakwa and S. White, Developments in Russian Politics, p. 135.
23 Ibid.
24 C. Davis, ‘The Ukraine Conflict, Economic-Military Power Balances and Economic Sanctions’, Post-Communist Economies, no. 2 (2016), p. 175.
25 On the origins of these funds, see above, pp. 117–18.
26 https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-russia-rosneft-privatisation-idUKKBN1321V5
27 E. Stanovaya, ‘Leadership and Bureaucracy in “Post-Crimean” Russia’, in A. Barbashin, O. Irisova, F. Burkhardt and E. Wyciszkiewicz (eds), A Successful Failure: Russia after Crime(a), p. 100.
28 V. V. Putin, interview with Bloomberg TV, 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52830
29 S. Kardaś and I. Wiśniewska, ‘The Ulyukaev Case: Tension Inside the Russian Elite’, OSW Commentary, no. 255 (1 December 2017), p. 4.
30 V. V. Putin, Kremlin meeting with big business leaders, 21 December 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56461
31 A. Illarionov, 22 December 2017: https://aillarionov.livejournal.com/2017/12/22
32 E. Dąbrowska, ‘The End of the Reserve Fund, the End of an Era’, 4 April 2018.
33 V. V. Putin, Meeting of the Commission for Military Technology Cooperation with Foreign Countries, 3 April 2013: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/17793
34 Ye. Pismennaya and A. Andrianova, ‘Russia’s $70 Billion “Secret” Spending Lets Money Do the Talking’, Bloomberg Politics, 25 July 2017: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-07-25/russia-s-70-billion-secret-spending-lets-money-do-the-talking
35 Ibid.
36 Ibid.
37 Author’s conversation with Michael McFaul, 9 August 2017 (Stanford, California).
38 World Bank Data: http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.KLT.DINV.CD.WD?end=2016&locations=RU&start=1992&view=chart
39 ‘50 krupneishikh inostrannykh kompaniy v Rossii’, Forbes Magazine (accessed online, 8 August 2017): http://www.forbes.ru/rating/50-krupneishikh-inostrannykh-kompanii-v-rossii-2016/2016#top10
40 I. Khrennikov, ‘Big Western Companies are Pumping Cash into Russia’, Bloomberg, 22 November 2016: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/bouncing-back-putin-s-shrunken-economy-lures-foreign-investors
41 Report in lenta.ru, 13 April 2017: http://getrussia.com/news/forbes_names_biggest_foreign_businesses_in_russia. (This report is no longer available online.)
42 D. Szakonyi, ‘Governing Business: The State and Business in Russia’, Foreign Policy Research Institute, 22 January 2018: https://www.fpri.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Szakonyi-Final-Version.pdf, p. 2.
43 Auswärtiges Amt, general notification about Russian conditions, March 2017: http://www.auswaertiges-amt.de/EN/Aussenpolitik/Laender/Laenderinfos/01-Nodes/RussischeFoederation_node.html
44 TASS, 20 January 2016: http://tass.com/economy/850944
45 V. V. Putin (press conference), St Petersburg International Economic Forum, 1 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54650
46 R. Connolly, ‘Western Financial Sanctions Won’t Break Russia’, Moscow Times, 28 June 2015.
47 J. L. Tefft, ‘Why Russia–U.S. Trade Still Matters’, Moscow Times, 22 December 2016.
48 United States Census Bureau, ‘Trade in Goods with Russia’ (July 2017); ‘U.S.–Russian Trade Relationship? There Really Isn’t One’, Fortune, 18 March 2014; Observatory of Economic Complexity (MIT, Chicago), 8 August 2017: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/export/usa/rus/show/2015
49 E. B. Rumer, ‘Russia’s China Policy, This Bear Hug is Real’, in M. S. Chase, E. S. Medeiros, J. Stapleton Roy, E. B. Rumer, R. Sutter and R. Weitz, Russia–China Relations: Assessing Common Ground and Strategic Fault Lines (National Bureau of Asian Research, special report no. 66, July 2017), p. 22.
50 Observatory of Economic Complexity (MIT, Chicago), 6 August 2017: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus
51 Observatory of Economic Complexity (MIT, Chicago), 8 August 2017: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize/tree_map/hs92/import/rus/show/all/2015
52 ‘Russia Takes Lead on EMEA Smartphone Market’, International Data Corporation (press release), 3 April 2017: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prCEMA42443617. (This press release is no longer available online.)
53 See S. Saradzhan, ‘Is Russia Declining?’, Demokratizatsiya, no. 3 (2016), p. 416.
54 Observatory of Economic Complexity (MIT, Chicago), 6 August 2017: http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/rus
55 ‘Transcript, Interview with Sergei Ivanov’, Financial Times, 21 June 2015.
56 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 22 October 2015: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50548
57 Moscow Times, 10 October 2018.
58 C. Krauss, ‘Exxon Mobil Scraps a Russian Deal, Stymied by Sanctions’, New York Times, 28 February 2018.
59 OECD report, 1 May 2018: http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/economic-forecast-summary-russia-oecd-economic-outlook.pdf
60 V. V. Putin, annual press conference, 21 December 2018: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59455
Chapter 25: Trailing the Dragon: Russo-Chinese Relations
1 E. M. Primakov, notes for meeting with V. V. Putin, earlier than 3 September 2009, in V. I. Matvienko and S. E. Naryshkin (eds), Neizvestnyi Primakov, vol. 1 (Dokumenty), p. 328.
2 S. Glaz’ev, Bitva za liderstvo v XXI veke: Rossiya-SShA-Kitai. Sem’ variantov obozrimogo, pp. 5–6.
3 Fu Ying, ‘How China Sees Russia’, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2016, pp. 100–2.
4 E. S. Medeiros and M. S. Chase, ‘Chinese Perspectives on the Sino-Russian Relationship’, in M. S. Chase, E. S. Medeiros, J. Stapleton Roy, E. B. Rumer, R. Sutter and R. Weitz, Russia–China Relations: Assessing Common Ground and Strategic Fault Lines (National Bureau of Asian Research, special report no. 66, July 2017), p. 8.
5 V. V. Putin, press conference (Hangzhou), 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/52834
6 See B. Lo, A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World, pp. 19–20.
7 J. Schubert, New Eurasian Age: China’s Silk Road and the EAEU in SCO Space, p. 17.
8 J. Brooke, ‘With Russia on the Sidelines, China Moves Aggressively into Ukraine’, Atlantic Council, January 5, 2018.
9 E. S. Medeiros and M. S. Chase, ‘Chinese Perspectives on the Sino-Russian Relationship’, in M. S. Chase, E. S. Medeiros, J. Stapleton Roy, E. B. Rumer, R. Sutter and R. Weitz, Russia–China Relations: Assessing Common Ground and Strategic Fault Lines (National Bureau of Asian Research, special report no. 66, July 2017), p. 19.
10 J. Schubert, New Eurasian Age: China’s Silk Road and the EAEU in SCO Space, p. 12.
11 Ibid., p. 52.
12 Ibid., p. 54.
13 See B. Lo, A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World, p. 41.
14 J. Schubert, New Eurasian Age: China’s Silk Road and the EAEU in SCO Space, pp. 3–5; A. Gabuev, ‘Friends With Benefits? Russian–Chinese Relations After the Ukraine Crisis’, Carnegie Moscow Center, 29 June 2016: http://carnegie.ru/2016/06/29/friends-with-benefits-russian-chinese-relations-after-ukraine-crisis-pub-63953
15 E. S. Medeiros and M. S. Chase, ‘Chinese Perspectives on the Sino-Russian Relationship’, in M. S. Chase, E. S. Medeiros, J. Stapleton Roy, E. B. Rumer, R. Sutter and R. Weitz, Russia–China Relations: Assessing Common Ground and Strategic Fault Lines (National Bureau of Asian Research, special report no. 66, July 2017), p. 8.
16 Ibid., p. 18.
17 J. Norberg and F. Westerlund, ‘Russia and Ukraine: Military-Strategic Options, and Possible Risks, for Moscow’, RUFS Briefing No. 22 (April 2014), p. 2.
18 M. Bodner, ‘In Arms Trade, China is Taking Advantage of Russia’s Desperation’, Moscow Times, 1 November 2016.
19 A. Gabuev, ‘Who’s Afraid of Chinese Colonization?’, Carnegie Moscow Center, 26 June, 2015: http://carnegie.ru/commentary/60515
20 R. Weitz, ‘Sino-Russian Security Ties’, in M. S. Chase, E. S. Medeiros, J. Stapleton Roy, E. B. Rumer, R. Sutter and R. Weitz, Russia–China Relations: Assessing Common Ground and Strategic Fault Lines (National Bureau of Asian Research, special report no. 66, July 2017), p. 41.
21 E. Shevardnadze, Kogda rukhnul zheleznyi zanaves, vstrechi i vospominaniya, p. 115.
22 V. V. Putin, press conference (Hangzhou), 5 September 2016: http://kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/52834
23 Fu Ying, ‘How China Sees Russia’, Foreign Affairs, January/February 2016, pp. 100–2.
24 See B. Lo, A Wary Embrace: What the China–Russia Relationship Means for the World, p. 4.
25 Miles Yu, ‘Storm Over Russia Border Rages’, Washington Times, 12 November 2015.
26 This paragraph benefits from advice from Bobo Lo.
Chapter 26: Fighting Abroad: The Syrian Intervention
1 A. Anishchuk, ‘Russia Warns Against Military Intervention in Syria’, Reuters, 26 August 2013.
2 J. Kerry, Every Day is Extra, pp. 548–9.
3 D. A. Medvedev, news conference after the G8 summit, 27 May 2011: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/11374
4 V. V. Putin interviewed by V. R. Solovëv, Rossiya 1 TV, 11 October 2015: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NvwB6pmDoc
5 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
6 V. V. Putin, interview with Bild magazine, part 2, conducted on 5 January 2016 and printed on 12 January 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/51155
7 V. V. Putin, St Petersburg International Economic Forum plenary session, 2 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54667
8 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
9 Ibid.
10 The Times, 29 June 2017.
11 D. Trenin, Rossiya i mir v XXI veke, pp. 227–8.
12 S. K. Shoigu, Defence Ministry Board meeting, 22 December 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53571
Chapter 27: Jostling and Embracing: The American Factor
1 See L. Harding, Collusion: How Russia Helped Trump Win the White House, pp. 84 and 103.
2 Testimony of Clinton Watts, ex-FBI agent and senior fellow of the George Washington Center for Cyber and Homeland Security, to the United States Intelligence Committee, C-Span3, 27 May 2017.
3 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club, 27 October 2016: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53151
4 See L. Harding, Collusion: How Russia Helped Trump Win the White House, pp. 27–32. The original BuzzFeed publication appeared at: https://www.buzzfeed-news.com/article/kenbensinger/these-reports-allege-trump-has-deep-ties-to-russia
5 Joint press conference of V. V. Putin and President I. N. Dodon of Moldova, 17 January 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/53744
6 S. V. Lavrov, Q&A in ‘Government Hour’ in State Duma, 25 January 2017: S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 436.
7 VTsIOM survey no. 3352, 17 April 2017.
8 Presidential Memorandum on Rebuilding the U.S. Armed Forces, 27 January 2017: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/presidential-memorandum-rebuilding-u-s-armed-forces
9 Telephone conversation between V. V. Putin and D. J. Trump, 2 May 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54441; The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
10 V. V. Putin, annual press conference, 14 December 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/56378
11 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
12 See R. Allison, ‘Russia and the Post-2014 International Legal Order: Revisionism and Realpolitik’, International Affairs, no. 3 (2017), p. 525.
13 J.Comey (testimony), House Intelligence Committee hearing, 20 March 2017: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fwkw_b2-K80
14 The Putin Interviews: Oliver Stone with Vladimir Putin, part 3 (14 June 2017): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QvlKSbYkTXI
15 Ibid.
16 PONARS Eurasia, ‘Why Trump’s Bid to Improve U.S.–Russian Relations Back-fired in Congress’: http://www.ponarseurasia.org/ru/node/9595
17 W. Ischinger, ‘Why Europeans Oppose the Russian Economic Sanctions’, Wall Street Journal, 17 July 2017.
18 S. Erlanger and N. MacFarquhar, ‘E.U. is Uneasy, and Divided, About U.S. Sanctions on Russia’, New York Times, 25 July 2017.
19 V. V. Putin (interview), Le Figaro, 31 May 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54638
20 NBC interview by Megyn Kelly, 2 June 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/54688
21 D. Philipov, D. Paletta and A. Phillip, ‘Putin Denies Election Hacking After Trump Pressed Him, Tillerson Says’, Washington Post, 8 July 2017.
22 V. V. Putin, G20 press conference (Hamburg), 8 July 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55017
23 New York Times, 10 July 2017
24 Reuters World News, 10 July 2017: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-nato-idUSKBN19V12V
25 ‘New Envoy Volker Says U.S. Considering Sending Arms to Ukraine’, RFE/RL, 25 July 2017: https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-volker-sending-arms-russia-conflict/28637079.html
26 S. V. Lavrov, lecture at General Staff Academy, 23 March 2017: S. V. Lavrov, My – vezhlivye lyudi: razmyshleniya o vneshnei politike, p. 462.
27 J. Johnson and A. Troianovski, ‘Trump Congratulates Putin on His Reelection, Discusses U.S.–Russian “Arms Race”’, Washington Post, 20 March 2018.
28 I. Arkhipov and E. Pismennaya, ‘Putin Still Wants Deal with Trump, Even After Sanctions, Syria Attack’, Bloomberg, 18 April 2018: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-18/putin-said-to-seek-trump-deal-even-after-sanctions-syria-attack
29 Hard Talk (with S. Sackur), BBC News Channel, 16 April 2018.
30 D. Allan, ‘Managed Confrontation: UK Policy Towards Russia After the Salisbury Attack’, p. 11.
31 ‘Posol Rossii v SShA rasskazal o dogovorënnostyakh Putina i Trampa’, Izvestiya, 18 July 2018.
32 Guardian, 27 January 2019.
33 Washington Post, 28 January 2019.
34 G. Trush, ‘Trump’s State of the Union Address’, New York Times, 5 February 2019.
35 S. LaFraniere and K. Benner, ‘Mueller Delivers Report’, New York Times, 23 March 2019.
36 V. V. Putin, address to the Federal Assembly, 20 February 2019: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/59863
Chapter 28: Choices: Russia and the West
1 Conversation with Henry Kissinger, 11 December 2017. I am grateful to Dr Kissinger for sharing this impression on the basis of his discussions with Vladimir Putin.
2 Interfax-Ukraine, 29 April 2019: https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/584679.html. See also P. Gregory, ‘Putin’s Provocations Are Met With Ridicule in Ukraine’, The Hill, 1 May 2019: https://thehill.com/opinion/international/441435-ridicule-is-a-sound-remedy-for-putins-provocations
3 A. Guterres, UN Security Council, 13 April 2018: https://www.un.org/press/en/2018/sgsm18986.doc.htm
4 ‘Sergey Lavrov: The Interview’, National Interest, 29 March 2017, p. 516.
5 V. V. Putin, Valdai International Discussion Club: 19 October 2017: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/55882
Afterword
1 New York Times, 20 August 2019.
2 Annual press conference, 19 December 2019: kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/press_conferences/62366; speech to Russian Defence Ministry board, 24 December 2019: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62401.
3 Annual press conference, 19 December 2019: kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/press_conferences/62366.
4 TASS interview, 20 February 2020: kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/62835
5 Russian Energy Week Forum, 2 October 2019: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/61704.
6 See here and here of main text, above.
7 Vedomosti, 16 January 2020: https://www.vedomosti.ru/technology/news/2020/01/16/820749-mishustin. See also N. Petrov and B. Noble, ‘Russia’s Uncertain Regime Transformation’, Chatham House, 11 March 2020.
8 ‘Doverie politikam’, Levada Centre poll conducted 23–28 January 2020: https://www.levada.ru/2020/02/12/doverie-politikam-4.
9 ‘Odobrenie institutov vlasti’, Levada Centre poll conducted 20–26 February 2020.
10 Attitudes to politicians as measured by the Levada Centre, 10 March 2020: https://www.levada.ru/2020/03/10/pochti-40-rossiyan-schitayut-chto-lyu-di-u-vlasti-ozabocheny-tolko-svoimi-dohodami.
11 VTsIOM survey, January 2020: https://www.wciom.com.
12 ‘Doverie institutam vlasti’, Levada Centre poll conducted 12–18 December 2019: https://www.levada.ru/2019/12/19/odobrenie-institutov-vlasti-20.
13 Russia Economic Report (World Bank), 4 December 2019: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/russia/publication/rer.
14 J. Cordell, ‘Experts Raise Questions’, Moscow Times, 18 October 2019.
15 V. V. Putin, speech to State Duma, 10 March 2020: kremlin.ru/events/president/news/62964.
16 A. G. Siluanov (statement), 18 March 2020: https://www.interfax.ru/business/699716.