AT seven in the morning, the China Emergency Group was back in session. But now not all the seats were occupied. Google had pulled out, along with the other commercial interests. There were more uniforms, fewer civilian suits.
Blair flexed her lower spine in the rather too-well-padded chair, wishing she’d brought her pain pills. But she had to be sharp for this.
Haverford Tomlin winked from across the table. She returned the general a half smile. Ms. Clayton was in a dark blue pantsuit, nursing a mug of tea. A sideboard held coffee, cinnamon buns, doughnuts, a bowl of oranges.
“Quickly then.” The DIA staffer was finishing his daily update, reading from a briefing book. “The engagement last night. When allied naval forces advanced from their blocking position in the Miyako Strait to attempt an intercept of the invasion forces—”
Blair lifted a hand. “What ships were involved?”
“USS Mitscher, Savo Island, Curtis Wilbur, submarine Pittsburgh, plus Japanese and Korean naval units. I can give you their names—?”
“No, proceed,” Ms. Clayton said, with a glance at Blair that read I know what you’re wondering.
“Mitscher was hit by three missiles, and heavily damaged. Savo Island was hit as well, but not as badly.”
“Casualties?” Ms. Clayton said, with another glance at Blair.
“Fourteen wounded and seven dead aboard Mitscher. Two casualties reported from Savo Island. Minor burns fighting fires.” The staffer glanced at his notes. “One of the Japanese destroyers, Chokai, was hit too. No report is available yet from her. A Korean frigate was sunk, though most of her crew was rescued. Republic of China naval surface forces attempted to coordinate with the attack, and also scored sinkings, but were largely destroyed. On the exhaustion of its ordnance, TG 779.1 withdrew.
“Meanwhile, our submarines carried out independent attacks farther west and south. We’re not sure yet exactly who sank what, but altogether a heavy toll has been taken on the invasion force. Especially a group of transports carrying a Category One mechanized force ROC intelligence has tentatively identified as the 124th Amphibious Mechanized Infantry Division. Reports indicate two of the ships sunk carried most of the heavy armor intended for the invasion.”
The retired Army general said, “That’ll set back their timetable.”
The DIA guy shook his head. “Not where they’ve landed, sir. That’s rice cultivation. Very bad tank country.”
“Then why bring them? They’re not stupid, Jerry.”
Blair interrupted. “We can argue that later. But they are ashore? I understood from the news, driving in this morning—”
The briefer nodded. “Correct, Ms. Titus. They’ve established two beachheads. One near the city of Hsinchu. The other, farther south. An airborne division is landing at the Hsinchu airfield. And Taipei estimates two more elite divisions are on their way across now. A second wave, again, with heavy air cover. The operational headquarters are in Putian, under a Lieutenant General Pei.”
The general muttered, “I know him. A hard, ruthless Party man. Will the Taiwanese fight?”
“They seem to be doing so, sir,” said the staffer. He was wearing a uniform today too, Marine greens. “Judging by the reports out of Taipei.”
“Why, you’re in uniform, Jeff,” Ms. Clayton said, as if she’d only just noticed.
“I’ve been activated, ma’am. This will be my last day at SAIC. I’ll be turning over to Miss Reich here.” He nodded to an anxious-looking young woman in her twenties.
“Well, we’ll miss your insights. But, actually, we may have to wrap up here, too. Pass our planning to the Chiefs and PaCom. Depending on—” She nodded to Blair. “Blair, you’re in touch with Senator Talmadge. What’s the status on the use-of-force resolution? You were involved in that, correct?”
“Actually, I wrote it. Rewrote, anyway.” She put her hands to her lower spine, trying to adjust it herself.
“What does it cover?”
“Air and sea power, plus ground troops, with a one-year reauthorization on commitment.” Something popped in her back, and she suppressed a wince. “He’s bringing it to a vote this afternoon. I’d like to be there, if you can do without me.”
“The taxis aren’t running, and the Metro’s still closed. We’ll have you driven over. What’s your opinion? How will it go?”
She remembered the conversation at the Monocle. “It’ll be close. On one side, the hawks in our party, with the moderates in theirs. On the other side, our own peace wing, plus Tea Party types and libertarians. For different reasons, they’re saying forget the Pacific. Concentrate on rearmament. Deal with whoever comes out on top.”
The general stirred. “We abandon our allies, we’re—”
“I told the senator that, General. But he’s not sure the Taiwanese will fight. If they do, I think he’ll support them.”
Clayton murmured, “You’re also getting close to your election.”
Blair smiled unwillingly. “My main debate’s tonight.”
“Good heavens. Well, best of luck.”
The staffer, still on his feet, cleared his throat. “If I may resume? As I was saying, they have two beachheads. Taipei reports fierce fighting. Heavy casualties on both sides. But ROC force numbers are eroding, while the mainlanders are still pouring in men.”
Tomlin said, “China holds air and sea control in the strait now, correct?”
“That’s correct, sir. Their sortie-generation rates are higher than prewar estimates. We still control the sea passages north and south of the island. But our numbers in theater are eroding too.”
No one said anything. The general sketched silently on his notepad. Doodling, Blair noticed, something that looked like either a shark or a stylized rocket ship. Over and over.
“All right,” she said at last. “Our mission here was to formulate a long-term strategy. In response to various possible Chinese moves. Now they’ve made one. How do we respond?”
“That, indeed, is the question.” Clayton went to the sideboard, stirred sugar into a second mug of tea. “Bearing in mind that whatever we produce here goes to the Chiefs and the West Wing. Jeff? You were going to work us up a detailed plan.”
The DIA guy took a chair along the wall, parking his binder. The Marine staffer twisted in his seat, a motion that gave Blair’s pelvis a sympathetic twinge. The slide he brought up on the far wall read SECRET NOFORN: OPERATION COMEBACK.
“As General Tomlin remarked several days ago, a breakthrough has to be contained at the flanks. Even if the invaders secure Taipei, it will take time, probably weeks, possibly even months, to establish control over the rest of the island. Especially if the ROC ground forces retreat into the uplands. The eastern half of Taiwan is quite mountainous.
“Our strategy will depend on what allies stand with us, and which bases remain when the dust settles. And also, what side Russia comes down on; if they back Zhang, the blockade will have less effect.
“However, if we can build a coalition, hold the second island chain, and cut off and isolate the invasion force on Taiwan, we might have the reserve capability, in terms of naval and air forces, to engineer another Stalingrad. As you directed, that’s what this plan outlines. But it may be a longer, tougher struggle than anyone expected.”
Blair said, “What about the force-reconstitution timeline? Logistics?”
“You’re right, ma’am, major questions. Especially with the sabotage reported on the Canal locks, and since the Navy now suspects several nuclear submarines made it out into the Pacific. We can expect the enemy to place every obstacle to our buildup that he can, up to and including diversionary attacks and raids on Hawaii or the continental U.S. This would impact not just our counteroffensive, but our ability to either reinforce or extract our troops in Korea and Okinawa.”
The general said, “As an aside: the major here mentioned he was being activated. But I’ve arranged for him to be attached to the Joint Chiefs J-5, Strategic Plans. So the transition should be seamless from here to their planning cell.”
Blair tapped her foot, trying to ignore the ache in her hips. Noting the arrows of attack. Noting, also, that all the forces listed were from Guam, Hawaii, or the continental United States.
As Clayton had directed, the staffer had planned for no one now in theater to survive or return. They were abandoning them. Bataan again. Corregidor, all over again.
She rested her chin on her fists as the slides flickered.
* * *
THE car dropped her at C and First. She’d been to the Hart Senate Office Building many times, though Talmadge preferred the Russell. The hearing was closed, which meant she had to show her ID to the guards at the door.
The room itself was an immense, modern space with lofty ceilings, done in white and blue, with the senators elevated on a long dais. Most of their seats were filled, a signal that this would be an important session and end with a vote. They were leafing through briefing books. To her surprise, a lot of the blue-upholstered audience seats were vacant. She took one in the second row. Mindy shot her a smile. She was in Blair’s old seat, behind Talmadge. Hu Kuwalay sat beside her, head down, scribbling something.
The chairman tapped the gavel. This would be a closed hearing under Rule 26, Paragraph 5(b), since they’d be discussing national security information. They had a quorum and were not in conflict with the floor schedule, but opening remarks would be limited to five minutes.
He continued, to outline the history of U.S.-China relations and their breakdown. Mindy winked past him at Blair, as if to say I wrote that. Blair wasn’t impressed, except with a statement that U.S. policy toward that country had all too often been dictated by political and commercial considerations rather than any long-term strategy. All too fucking true … After some minutes, Talmadge got to the point. “Today’s hearing will consider the proposed Authorization for the Use of Military Force against the People’s Republic of China. Are there any other opening statements by the members?… No?… Our first witness will be the national security adviser, Dr. Edward Szerenci.”
Blair sat back, studying her old opponent. Szerenci wore a dark gray suit and a pale blue tie. A flag pin. The same heavy dark horn-rims. Since he was seated, you couldn’t really see how short he was. Glancing back, he caught her eye and inclined his head, a half-smile playing around thin lips. Her nod in return was just as scant.
As usual, he spoke without notes. “Senator Talmadge, ranking member, Senators, I believe—and I saw it during both parties’ chairmanships—that this committee makes the greatest contribution to our foreign policy when it addresses issues in a strong, bipartisan fashion. The chairman has made that point too, but I want to underline it. This is one of the moments in history when a united approach is absolutely critical.
“As you know, the president is committed to engaging with all of your colleagues in the House and Senate regarding an authorization for use of military force against recent aggressive moves of the People’s Republic against India, against Japan, against Vietnam, the Philippines, and now, against Taiwan.”
Blair made just an occasional note for the next few minutes, fully listening again only when she sensed he was winding up.
“I recognize all the work you’ve already done on this challenging issue. As I said, it’s essential that this committee leads the Congress and the country into concerted action. This confrontation will not be over quickly. As the president said during his televised speech. We very much desire approval of this AUMF as a vehicle for further chamber action. I do note Chairman Talmadge has suggested that a one-year reauthorization be included. We’re willing to support that, but with the reservation that we’ll likely have to ask for an extension. I make that point now so there are no misunderstandings later.
“To sum up, Mr. Chairman, members, I ask for your approval with the strongest vote possible. Both our allies and our enemies will read messages into that vote—in connection with our campaign, and that of our coalition partners, to defeat a powerful and expansionist enemy of the sort we haven’t encountered since the Cold War.
“Thank you. I’ll be happy to answer any questions.”
Talmadge shuffled papers as several of the members pitched softballs. When they were done, he asked Szerenci to stay, in case there was further discussion. Then he called a senior fellow from the Brookings Institution, who presented a backgrounder on Zhang Zurong.
A third witness, from State, outlined the administration’s alliance building against the coalition of what he rather colorlessly called the Opposed Powers: China, Northern Myanmar, North Korea, Iran, and Pakistan.
She was closing her notebook, thinking about bailing, when Talmadge leaned into the mike. “Our next witness will be the honorable Dr. Blair Titus, former staff chair of this committee, more recently an undersecretary of defense from the De Bari administration, and currently a senior fellow at SAIC. Dr. Titus?”
The only open seat up front was next to Szerenci. He offered his hand. She hesitated, then took it. But didn’t bother smiling.
Talmadge rumbled, “Dr. Titus, I understand you’ve been studying possible countermoves, and our strategic position vis-à-vis these Axis Powers.” Mindy leaned forward and touched his shoulder. “Sorry … ‘Opposed’ Powers. Or whatever we’re calling them. I’d like your estimate of our ability to hold our positions in the Pacific, and if we take losses, how we should regain the initiative.”
She glanced back at the cameras, making sure they were off. “Mr. Chairman, thank you for inviting me to speak. However, I was not expecting to be called. I have no prepared remarks.”
“That’s all right. I called you because you’ve usually got good sense about these things.”
She fiddled with her notes, playing for time. Even in closed session, there were things she just didn’t want to say. Outline plans for allied counterstrokes, when the issue on Taiwan was still in doubt? She finally murmured, “I can only say that we are being forced to make a definitive choice, for surrender or all-out conventional war. Zhang has breached the peace with the invasion of Taiwan. We’re not formally pledged to intervene, but this is a bigger question than the wording of treaties.
“This aggression threatens the core interests of the United States. If Taiwan falls, South Korea’s encircled and Japan’s essentially neutralized. We stand to lose everything we fought World War II for: a stable Pacific, trading relationships, democratic allies. Right now, our position does not augur well. But I understand PaCom and the Joint Chiefs are formulating plans for downstream operations. Of course, these depend on Senate passage of this resolution.”
A pat on her shoulder. “Well said,” Szerenci whispered. She shot him a jaundiced look.
“Well, Dr. Titus, here is my question.” The senior member from the other party, Senator McKane. “In my experience, it’s easier to embark on a conflict than to end one. Certain members are drawing a parallel here with our war with Japan. But that was a different time, a different enemy. This may call for a different response.”
“That’s true, Senator. Quite true,” Blair said. “Very wise remark.”
“Well, what’s your response? Can we win?”
She took a moment to choose the best words. “I have no crystal ball. And I hesitate to go on record as predicting the outcome of any conflict. But I believe the United States has the power to emerge victorious. At least if we define our objectives properly.
“The question will be whether we have the resolve to continue if faced, as we may well be, with painful reverses. I agree with both the chairman and Dr. Szerenci that this is not a partisan issue. It’s a test of our ability to stand with our allies in a time of death and sacrifice. A test of our will to maintain an international order based on law, not force.
“But, given that, are we ready to make sacrifices on the scale of World War II? There are those who claim this isn’t the same country it was then. That we’re too used to peace. All I can say is, for once, I agree with Dr. Szerenci. We need to stand firm against aggression, no matter the cost.”
No one asked her anything more. Several of the members seemed to be holding side discussions. At last Talmadge leaned to the mike again. “Our next witness will be General Ricardo Vincenzo, United States Air Force, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. General, have you prepared opening remarks?”
Vincenzo had. Halfway through them he hesitated, then drew a breath.
“This is highly classified. We can’t reveal how we obtained this information. But General Zhang has ordered the rapid deployment of a new class of ICBM. The DF-41 is a surprise. In terms of throw weight, accuracy, and number of independently maneuverable warheads, it is superior to the heaviest missiles we have available. We’d heard rumors about its development, but had no indication it was this far along.”
Talmadge said gravely, “This is indeed serious news, General. Do we have hard numbers?”
“We estimate at least fifty MIRVed ICBMs are being activated. All, presumably, targeted against major cities in the continental United States.”
Szerenci held up a hand. Talmadge nodded. “If you will, Mr. Chairman. This accords perfectly with the premier’s ultimatum of a few days ago. One: No American ally will be attacked unless it attacks China, or refuses to provide passage. Two: U.S. forces capable of delivering nuclear weapons will be dealt with ‘by any means necessary.’ Three: Any aggression against Chinese soil will be answered by a similar level of destruction visited on the American homeland.
“This underscores a point I’ve made in other venues: their breakout in nuclear delivery systems is quickly placing us in an inferior position. Until now, I thought this was some years out. Now it’s happening sooner. Therefore, our goal must not be simply to restore the status quo. It must be to cap and, if possible, eliminate the Red Chinese nuclear deterrent. If we must take risks, better now than later. When we may be fighting from a position of disadvantage.”
A stir on the dais; a murmuring. Talmadge tapped the gavel. They quieted. “Thank you, Doctor. General, any further remarks?”
Vincenzo said, “Our mobilization is proceeding. We’ll bring a request to the Hill shortly for activation of the selective service system. We may be handicapped, though, by the recent data corruption discovered in their files. This may be a lengthy war. It’s a long way out to the western Pacific, and we can no longer call on the shipping capacity we had in World War II.”
The hearing wore on. The deputy director of the CIA. A Taiwan expert from Georgetown University. At last Talmadge called for a vote. One by one, the senators, in portentous tones, voiced their decisions.
It came out 11 to 2, with one member abstaining, to forward the force-authorization resolution to the Senate the next morning.
Looking exhausted, Talmadge declared the session closed. He lifted his head, seeming to search the audience for Blair. But she was already slipping out.
She had a debate to get ready for.
* * *
“THIS election is going to revolve around national security, Blair.” Jessica looked anxious, frazzled, skinnier than when they’d first met. “He’s going to scare them. Tell them their sons, and probably their daughters, are going to die in the Pacific. So we reassure them. Tell ’em nothing bad will happen. We’ll win in a few weeks. It’s under control.”
Her campaign manager trotted alongside, talking on and on about what to say and what not to. Blair finally interrupted: “Did anyone from the party get in touch? About that funding Bankey promised?”
“I left four calls. No one’s returned them. By the way, you look fantastic. Love that suit. Powerful. Remember, everything’s going to be fine in the Pacific. Your dad said—”
“Not now,” Blair muttered as the backstage door swung open and her makeup guy waved from a portable desk.
When she walked out onto the stage, smoothing her hair over the damaged ear, the auditorium looked much smaller than the hearing room in the Hart. But the audience was larger. In fact, standing room only. To the side waited a panel of students. They’d discuss the debate as soon as it was over. The local radio stations were carrying it live. Her opponent had wanted four meetings, but she’d cut it down to this one, citing her commitments in Washington. Which might or might not work against her. “Too busy to care about local issues”—that would be how he’d spin it. If he was smart.
She focused on her earnest-looking, dark-haired, awkwardly spindly opponent as they met in the middle of the stage, shook hands, and retreated to opposite sides. Gregory Beiderbaum owned a car dealership in Cheltenham. His family had sold Fords for generations. He’d been a state representative, then a state senator.
She won the toss and spoke first. In her opening statement, she made sure to mention Beiderbaum’s coming out of the closet two years before, the first openly gay state senator in Maryland history. How courageous she found it. She smiled down at his husband, Fyodor, who was sitting in the front row. She kept it polite, outlining her experience at the Congressional Research Service, on the Senate staff, and in the Department of Defense, and pointing out that she’d just come from testifying about the war-powers resolution.
To her astonishment, Beiderbaum came out of the chute hungry for blood. His opening remarks painted her as a tool of the defense establishment. “Why does ‘the Honorable’ Blair Titus—a title given her by the De Bari administration—care so much about what happens on a faraway island in Asia? One reason. It happens in every war: our freedoms erode, government prying and control increase. The national debt’s skyrocketing. Those of you who depend on Medicare and Social Security, prepare to lose benefits. And those in our radio and TV audience, who’ve worked hard and accumulated investments: you see what’s happening to their value.”
He wheeled, and pointed at her. “This is nothing to the suffering Blair Titus will bring us. She talks about her family’s history. Back to the slaveholders of the Civil War. But she’s not even a Maryland resident anymore; she lives in Arlington.” Beiderbaum licked his lips, glanced at his notes, beamed an earnest smile into the cameras. “Now let’s talk about her husband. A ‘Navy hero,’ her office says. But, really, a left-wing agitator in his younger days, according to my good friend Congresswoman Sandy Treherne. More recently, he cravenly backed down from a confrontation with the Chinese in the Indian Ocean. And now he’s dragging us into war, just like in the Tonkin Gulf. He recklessly risks his men’s lives, the same cavalier way his wife—who distances herself by not taking his name—will endanger your children. She has, by the way, none of her own.”
His voice rose; he pounded the podium with a clenched fist. “Blair just told you, with her own lips, who she is. The consummate Washington insider. The Senate. The Department of Defense. Oh yes. Oh, yes. Her motto: Tax, spend, and herd other people’s children to the slaughter, against the hordes of Asia.
“I call on the voters of this district, from both parties, to reject war. If you don’t like me, write another name in on your ballot. But if you value the lives of your children, the value of your investments, and above all, your God-given freedoms, do not vote for Blair Titus.”
A storm of applause, with many leaping up to cheer. Offstage, Kirschorn was pumping a fist at her, then clawing like an enraged raccoon: rip his guts out. Blair forced herself to breathe slowly. Concentrate. Attack, in her turn? Attack what? The guy had no national-level experience. Which was, of course, why he was shifting ground on her. Politics. In what other profession would being completely ignorant be presented as an advantage?
She could go personal. He wanted to compare families? He’d left three school-age kids behind when he’d abandoned his wife. After screwing her out of 160 acres of a trailer park that had been in her family for decades.
But if she took that route, she’d be portrayed as attacking his lifestyle choice. And lose one of her own bases of support. Check.
Instead, facing the by-now-hostile faces below her, she spoke calmly, to the issues. She defended the administration, which felt deeply wrong, given her party. “I can’t disagree that this war is being forced on us. We can’t give the president a blank check. But neither can we walk away from our allies. That would be the beginning of our fall.
“We have to walk a middle path. It will be long. It may be harder than we like. The good news is that unemployment figures are down. Our manufacturing base is beginning to respond. Government spending, historically, is a stimulus to the economy.”
But even as she explained logically and reasonably what they had to do, she saw it in their expressions. The rage. The naked fear. America was taking on a war no one wanted. Someone had to pay.
It looked as if that someone was going to be her.