1985: We’re only two years past the Zenith of “Me” and we’re already reminiscing about the glory years of the Upswing (1963–1973). Bruce Springsteen haunted us with a song,
ME |
Glory days! Well, they’ll pass you by. |
1989: Seeing our need to re-create the glory days from our past, Mazda studies the quintessential British sports cars of yesterday, including two Lotus Elans, as part of their process in designing the hugely successful Mazda MX-5 Miata. The Japanese convertible re-created the road feel, the exhaust sound, and the geometry between seat, stick shift, and steering wheel.
We saw a photo of a young man in Norway cradling a racing helmet in his lap as he sat cross-legged on the trunk of his new Miata convertible. This was his online post:
ME |
I grew up in a period dominated by history’s greatest sports cars: Jaguar E-type, Austin Healey, MGB and Lotus Elan, to mention some. When I decided to buy a sports car, I knew what I wanted: a nimble, rear-wheel drive roadster with good handling, twin-cam engine, and good design. A Lotus Elan type of car but without the hassle. The MX5 / Miata was a natural choice!1 |
Think about it: he’s driving a car with an engine the size of a loaf of bread and dreaming about the powerful Jaguar V12s of yesterday. His little econo-box lacks the power to pull a fat kid off the toilet, but he’s certain he needs that helmet because he’s a racecar man.
Welcome to the Downswing of “Me.” Think of it as a hot-air balloon that begins to descend as its air begins to cool.
Generation X was never an age group; it was an attitude—the cooling of the hot-air balloon of “Me.”
Figure 15.1 Downswing from a Zenith of “ME.”
Figure 15.2 Values of “ME” Zenith when society takes a good thing too far.
| ZENITH CHARACTERISTICS | ME | |
| TAKING THINGS TOO FAR | ||
| GET ALL YOU CAN. CAN ALL YOU GET. SIT ON THE CAN. POISON THE REST. HE WHO DIES WITH THE MOST TOYS WINS. | ||
• Individuality disintegrates into a costume party • Big hair, disco, and glam rock • Branding campaigns are “costume parties” |
• Advertising—promises that businesses have no intention of keeping • Literature: fantasy, terror, and heroes • Winning is all that matters. • Recreating the glory days |
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We’ve arrived once again at year thirty in a forty-year window. It’s time to listen for the Alpha Voices of technology and literature that will open our eyes to a new reality that will become mainstream in just ten short years. This time, technology and literature arrive in the same package.
March 19, 1992
AOL went public on the NASDAQ, offering two million shares for $11.50 each.
October 8, 1992
Walt Mossberg wrote in an article about online services for the Wall Street Journal: “I see America Online as the sophisticated wave of the future.”
January, 1993
AOL launches a Windows version, with links to graphics.
July, 1993
AOL floods America with discs in the mail. You remember, don’t you? You couldn’t open a box of cereal or the seatback pocket in front of you without pulling out a free CD that would install America Online on your hard drive.
“You’ve got mail. You’ve got mail. You’ve got mail. You’ve got mail. You’ve got mail. You’ve got . . .”
America Online’s ease of installation and automatic start-up caused it to become wildly successful with both the public as well as investors.
This dot-com bubble would burst, of course, because this was merely the Alpha Voice ten years ahead of reality. The bandwidth limitations imposed by 54 kbps dial-up modems made it impossible for the Internet to deliver streaming video. Even simple Flash animations on home pages took several minutes to download. Not only were there no effective search engines; there was nothing to search for even if there had been. The web was essentially e-mail and chat rooms. Your inbox was clogged each day with multiple copies of the same jokes and stories forwarded from all your friends.
The most notable survivor of the dot-com bubble burst was Amazon.com. Created by Jeff Bezos in 1994, Amazon’s searchable content grew exponentially compared to other sites, and its pages weren’t burdened with gimmicks that took a long time to load.
It’s interesting to note that popular music at the halfway point of a Downswing will usually sound just like the music at the halfway point of the Upswing twenty years before. This is due to the fact that popular music reflects the desires of the masses, and the Pendulum is in precisely the same position when it is halfway down as when it is halfway up.
As we moved forward from the Halfway-Up position of 1973, music got slick, tight, polished, and choreographed as we approached the “Me” Zenith (1983) and entered the “disco” phase. But now that the Pendulum of 1993 has returned to the same position it occupied in 1973, popular music “sounds like 1973 all over again.” Listen for yourself and see if you don’t agree.
Figure 15.3 Popular music themes in a downswing from a “ME” Zenith.
1997
Strauss and Howe follow up their Generations with a sequel called The Fourth Turning. At one point in the book, they speak of the United States at the “We” Zenith of 1943 and compare it to 1997—the year when they’re writing—when America was just beginning to emerge from more than three decades of “Me.” They state,
ME |
Around World War II, we were proud as a people, but modest as individuals. Where we once thought ourselves collectively strong, we now regard ourselves as individually entitled. . . . Fewer than 2 people in 10 said yes when asked, ‘Are you a very important person?’ Today more than six in 10 say yes.2 |
And now it’s 1998.
Forty years have passed since that new style of music called rock and roll began to make its way into the mainstream. The time has come again for a new musical genre to begin nudging its way into mix. Following the Alpha Voices of 1958, we had top-forty Rock, Bubblegum Rock, Hard Rock, Soft Rock, Punk Rock, Grunge Rock, Album Rock, Country Rock, and Instrumental Rock.
Whatever this new music is, we know it won’t be just another variation of rock.
Ever heard of rap and hip hop?
Just as it was in 1958, the top three songs of 1998 are the “old” style of music that would soon begin to fade. But there it was again at number four . . . our first Alpha Voice in the Top 100. This has to be a coincidence, right? Again just as before, a solid thirty of the Top 100 are clearly rap or hip hop, and another dozen lean gently toward it while keeping the other foot planted safely in rock and roll.
Like rock and roll, rap was pioneered by African Americans, but taken mainstream by a white boy. Eminem, the white popularizer of rap, said in an early interview, Self-effacing transparency is utterly disarming, is it not?
CC Image courtesy of Glen Han on Flickr
WE |
My insecurities? I’m dumb, I’m stupid, I’m white, I’m ugly, I smell, and I’m white . . . I wanna kill myself . . . My nose is crooked . . . um, my penis is small. |
Rap and hip hop don’t top the list in 1998, but we weren’t yet at the tipping point, either.
Figure 15.4 Alpha voices in music leading into a “WE” cycle.
CC Image courtesy of Ed Vill on Flickr
CC Image courtesy of Usuario Gozamos on Flickr
CC Image courtesy of Mike Barry on Flickr
Sister photography
Matt Gibbons
During this year, Chris Locke, Doc Searls, David Weinberger, and Rick Levine posted online “The Cluetrain Manifesto.” Their ninety-five theses were as revolutionary as the ninety-five theses Martin Luther posted on the door of Wittenberg Castle Church in 1517. Their statements and conclusions may seem self-evident today, but they were considered crazy talk back in 1999. Here are four of the ninety-five:
3. Conversations among human beings sound human. They are conducted in a human voice.
4. Whether delivering information, opinions, perspectives, dissenting arguments or humorous asides, the human voice is typically open, natural, uncontrived.
15. In just a few more years, the current homogenized “voice” of business—the sound of mission statements and brochures—will seem as contrived and artificial as the language of the eighteenth-century French court.
22. Having a sense of humor does not mean putting some jokes on the corporate website; rather, it requires big values, a little humility, straight talk, and a genuine point of view.
Figure 15.5 Key points from the Cluetrain Manifesto that you can apply in online conversations.
| KEY POINTS FROM THE CLUETRAIN MANIFESTO | ME |
| HOW TO HAVE “HUMAN TO HUMAN” CONVERSATIONS ONLINE | |
1. Talk like a human. Conversations sound human. 2. Sound human by being open, natural, and uncontrived in all conversations. 3. Ditch the standard homogenized “voice” of business. Mission statements and brochures sound artificial. 4. Big values, a little humility, straight talk, and a genuine point of view sell. Corny jokes on the corporate website don’t cut it. |
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“Putting some jokes on the corporate website” sounds absurd, right? But this was a typical response of business owners in 1999 when the staff finished their brainstorming about “how to create a website that people might like to visit.” After all, jokes and stories are what clogged our inboxes, remember?
WE |
Self-effacing transparency is utterly disarming. |
Anyone in 1999 who was advising advertisers to embrace “humility, straight talk, and a genuine point of view” was speaking a language that was completely foreign to mainstream business. Society was still in a “Me,” and the tipping point was yet four years away.
Do you remember Mike Myers in the movie Austin Powers? Awakened from a twenty-five-year sleep, this ultrasuave, parody character of James Bond is told, “The Cold War is over.”
Austin replies, “Well, finally those capitalist pigs will pay for their crimes, eh? Eh, comrades? Eh?”
“Austin, we won.”
“Oh, groovy, smashing, yea, capitalism. . .”
At one point in the movie the villainous Dr. Evil announces, “I’m going to place him in an easily escapable situation involving an overly elaborate and exotic death . . . Alright guard, begin the unnecessarily slow-moving dipping mechanism.”
Austin Powers was blatant mockery of James Bond, the ultimate hero of the “Me” that was winding down. The Austin Powers movies (1997–2002) were wildly successful, bringing in over $676 million at the box office, plus additional revenues from DVDs.
All the Alpha Voices whispered the same message as society approached the tipping point of 2003: “We want the truth, even if it’s ugly. Shrink-wrapped, sugar-coated, phony posing is no longer acceptable.”
iStockphoto / Iridiumphotographics