Acknowledgements

This book could not exist if it were not for the generosity of many people. Thanks most of all to my agent, Carrie Plitt, for her enthusiastic belief in my proposal and her support and guidance ever since. Thanks also to the rest of the team at Felicity Bryan Associates, Zoë Pagnamenta in New York, and the team at Andrew Nurnberg Associates for helping to spread the word in the rest of the world.

I have been lucky to have been guided by my editors, Drummond Moir at Hodder & Stoughton and Matt Weiland at WW Norton. Their wise judgement and tactful edits have improved this book no end and I have learnt so much from their advice. Thanks also to Cameron Myers at Hodder for his suggestions and for all his help in ensuring the editorial process flowed as smoothly as possible.

I am incredibly grateful to the many experts who shared their insights and knowledge with me. These include: David Perkins, Robert Sternberg, James Flynn, Keith Stanovich, Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Dan Kahan, Hugo Mercier, Itiel Dror, Rohan Williamson, Igor Grossmann, Ethan Kross, Andrew Hafenbrack, Silvia Mamede, Pat Croskerry, Norbert Schwarz, Eryn Newman, Gordon Pennycook, Michael Shermer, Stephan Lewandowsky, John Cook, Susan Engel, Carol Dweck, Tenelle Porter, James Stigler, Robert and Elizabeth Bjork, Ellen Langer, Anita Williams Woolley, Angus Hildreth, Bradley Owens, Amy Yi Ou, Andre Spicer, Catherine Tinsley, Karlene Roberts – and the many other interviewees who have not been quoted, but whose expertise nevertheless contributed to my argument.

Thanks also to Brandon Mayfield for kindly sharing his experiences with me; Michael Story, who gave me a little glimpse of what it means to be a super-forecaster; and Jonny Davidson for his help with the diagrams. I am also grateful to the staff and students at the Intellectual Virtues Academy in Long Beach, who could not have been more welcoming during my visit.

Richard Fisher at BBC Future first commissioned me to write a piece on the ‘downsides of being intelligent’ in 2015. Thanks for setting the ball in motion, and for the continued encouragement and advice throughout my career. And thanks to my friends and colleagues, including Sally Adee, Eileen and Peter Davies, Kate Douglas, Stephen Dowling, Natasha and Sam Fenwick, Simon Frantz, Melissa Hogenboom, Olivia Howitt, Christian Jarrett, Emma and Sam Partington, Jo Perry, Alex Riley, Matthew Robson, Neil and Lauren Sullivan, Helen Thomson, Richard Webb and Clare Wilson, who have all offered invaluable support. I owe you all many drinks. A Marta, Luca, Damiano e Stefania, grazie infinite.

I owe more than I can describe to my parents, Margaret and Albert, and to Robert Davies, for your support in every step of this journey. I could not have written this book without you.