Chapter 12: From Prophecy to Forecast

The day after returning from Reylia village, I finished up my work in the courtyard while enduring the scornful gazes of my fellow students piercing my back.

During my business trip, I apparently earned the title of “pathetic commoner who has to resort to buttering up a retired old man.” It kind of drove me to want to go and make a profit.

I took my sample in hand and headed towards the director’s office. I properly had the “official” request I got from the director in my hand as well. Alfina’s maid stood by the door to the room, and shot an icy glare at me.

Her wariness level had increased. I didn’t do anything for her to complain about, and I never really met her in the first place, so this was probably the archduchess’s doing. It’s not nice to make others do something for you just because you can’t do it yourself, you know? At any rate, first it’s Claudia, and now this maid... why is it that the people whose interests are supposed to be aligned with mine are always so hostile towards me? This even happened back in the other world.

I entered the director’s office and found Alfina and Mia already inside. Incidentally, it seemed that nothing had happened while I was away. The carriage I saw on the way to Reylia was just becoming more and more suspicious.

On that note, Mia’s mood had been quite frigid ever since I informed her that I traveled from Berthold to Reylia in the same carriage as Alfina.

“So you’re finally here.” I was urged on by the owner of the room I was apparently buttering up and moved over to his personal lab.

Apparently, when he was transferred from his position as Court Wizard of the Royal Bureau of Wizardry, he managed to acquire this room and split off from them completely. Just how much does he hate the company of others?

The window was blocked by a thick curtain, and the walls were blackened. The black material was apparently used to block mana from escaping or entering the room. A bulky desk, the same color as the walls, sat in the middle of the room. There were racks on the table with strange vials on them. And a slate board, similar to the one in the director’s office, was set up against the wall.

This room clearly cost more money than his plain office. It made it clear as day where the owner’s heart lay between his hobby and his work.

“As you can see, everything is ready to go.” Fulsig was wearing a hefty apron and thick gloves, the magical device before him completely set up.

A small and a large sphere were both supported in the air by rods, hanging over a small rectangle no bigger than a little flower. It kind of felt like some sort of electrical experiment. Beside the device was what looked like a crystal ruby, wrapped in a rope the same color as the curtains.

The ruby emitted an ever so faint red light independent of the candles in the dimly illuminated room. So, this is magicite? It’s the first time I’ve seen it for myself. All I could see was a faint light, but apparently those with a disposition towards mana saw it as a sparkling one.

A long and narrow object wrapped in black cloth, the sample I’d just taken from the courtyard, and some black paper were also placed on the desk.

“Then let us begin,” Fulsig said, holding both his hands in the air like a surgeon before a procedure.

He was like an old teacher starting a science experiment with his students. Not that we were actively participating. Wizardry used mana to invoke certain phenomena, but unlike the image of magic we have in the other world, it had pretty big limitations.

The first restriction was the complete reliance on mana from magicite, meaning it isn’t produced by the caster. Another was that the result produced by the mana is fully determined by the magical device being used. Also, there was a need for mana to flow from the magicite to the device for it to be used, as well as a need to manipulate the flow. Finally, it required the so-called disposition towards mana.

My disposition was absolutely zero. When I enrolled in the Academy they had me grasp a small hoop to confirm this. Mia also had about the same disposition as any old commoner. Those with disposition towards mana were largely restricted to those of noble blood. One could say that they were literal blue bloods.

Not only that, there’s even the problem of compatibility with magical devices. Quell’s Crystal was a prime example; nobody was capable of using it except Alfina. The only devices which were somewhat general-use were the armaments used by the chivalric orders.

They were technically magical devices, but all they allowed was for mana to flow through a metal called brightsilver. How much mana is allowed to flow through it seems to be important, though.

Weapons and armor with mana flowing through them were far sturdier, and would become as light as cloth. That was why the only ones capable of opposing monsters were the knights of the chivalric orders.

“Let’s start with this ‘tree.’” Fulsig picked up the bored-out rod I got from the tree in the courtyard with the tips of his fingers.

This one was the negative control. It was used to confirm that normal trees do not naturally emit any sort of mana. By all rights, we should have been using a tree of the same species that hasn’t absorbed any mana, but that was difficult to acquire in practice.

He stood a piece of black paper vertically against the device, and placed the sample in contact with it. Next, he removed his right glove and pinched the magicite with his thumb and index finger. In the next instant, his withered fingers, which were trembling quite unreliably, became completely still.

Just as they did, the red light from the magicite grew stronger and he slowly passed the sample through the device. He then peeled the black paper from the device. A white shape, as if the sample had cast an inverted shadow, was now imprinted on the paper.

In short, this was the exposure of the paper to mana which passed through the wood. Seeing that the imprint was completely uniform, as if it was drawn with white ink, this meant that the wood itself didn’t contain any mana.

“Looks like it went right through unaffected. Well, that much is only natural,” Fulsig said.

He told us once before that mana only reacted to specific materials. I was the one who requested that a negative control be measured, since by the standards of the other world, it was important to know the basis upon which a measurement was being taken. I guess it was just the meddling of an amateur, though.

“Now for the sample we got from the east.” Fulsig put on airs as he unwrapped the black cloth and pulled out the bored-out rod from a red tree. It had apparently been collected in the eastern region, near one of the observatories.

This one was the positive control. In other words, the sample used based on a result that is already known. Nobody had ever measured the mana from annual tree rings before, though, so strictly speaking, this was also a brand new experiment. Actually, this would normally be the starting point. We just didn’t have much time, so we were running all the experiments at once.

Fulsig passed the sample from the east through the measurement device. I reflexively held my breath. If no result could be made apparent, then the entire idea of using annual tree rings to measure mana fluctuations would go out the window.

Fulsig slowly peeled off the black paper. Unable to see the other side of it, we couldn’t tell what the results were. And looking at the paper in his hands, the corners of Fulsig’s lips curved upwards.

“I see, so it ends up like this... How interesting.”

He finally turned the black paper towards us and revealed a wave like pattern atop it. I let out a huge sigh.

The brightness of the pattern was inversely proportional to the amount of miasma; in other words, the amount of mana emitted by the ley lines. I guess the principle theory would be somewhat similar to the Roentgen values of an X-ray. It still wasn’t determined that the red trees possessed an accurate record of mana fluctuations, but it was at least clear that the shade changed throughout the years.

However, the boundaries between patterns were vague in the portion representing the center of the tree, the oldest records.

“It looks like the older portions are impossible to read. We can get about ten years or so...” I commented.

“Wait, hang on a sec, don’t jump to conclusions. Let’s adjust the sensitivity a bit more.” Fulsig was filled with motivation, and began fiddling with the measurement device.

Apparently, the distance between the two spheres adjusted the sensitivity of measurements. And after repeating the experiment, a new image was taken with a slightly higher contrast than the previous reading.

“See? It’s even better now. But still, we might just have to concede that data from over thirty years ago can’t be used...”

He really could back up his claims. So this is one degree of precision higher than the observatories. It really would’ve been out of the question to measure this sample without him.

“Now to quantify it,” Fulsig said as he took out a square board with a tiled pattern on it. He slid the paper atop it, and used the tiles on the board as a standard for measuring the density of mana in each band, like one would do with pH paper. “Mia, please table the recordings.”

He then took a magnifying glass in hand and began quantifying the density of mana in each year and Mia recorded the numbers. She was in perfect sync with him as a helper... she is my secretary, after all.

And as a result, 29 years of data was now recorded on paper. He then took a scroll from his breast pocket. The red seal of an official document could be seen on its back as he unfolded it.

He was making sure we couldn’t see it. Meaning, this was something important enough that anyone other than him couldn’t see it.

Alfina and I waited with stiff expressions. And suddenly, Fulsig tossed the scroll onto the table.

“Um, there’s a seal on that scroll indicating it’s classified information...” Alfina said in a reserved tone.

The opened scroll displayed a row of numbers. It was likely the record of ley line fluctuations recorded directly by the observatories. This was of course a state secret, and a military one at that.

If, say, the Empire knew of this information, they could identify the timing with which the main body of the Kingdom’s army would march east at least one year in advance. The fact that he laid it open in front of students basically means...

“There’s no meaning to the confidentiality anymore. You’ve got the same thing in front of you already.”

I compared the numbers Mia recorded and the numbers on the scroll. The peak recorded by the observatory 29 years ago before a small-scale flood was 30, and the recording during the flood itself was 12. The respective values from the annual tree rings were 12 and 5. For the flood 20 years ago, the observatory recorded 32 and 13, while the rings showed 13 and 6. They completely supported each other. Disregarding the sensitivity, the numbers from the annual tree rings were just below half the observatory readings.

However, looking at the readings from three years ago, the observatory recorded 32 and 16, while the tree rings showed 17 and 9; a little more than half. That was likely due to decay over time. This is all within permissible limits. Mia began working out the math to normalize them for decay without saying anything.

“...In the last thirty years, there have been two mid-scale monster floods in the east and four small-scale ones. Just as you can see from the observatory readings, the measurements of the ley lines begin rising five years before the flood, peak three years before it, and then decay for the next two years. That’s when the monster flood occurs. As for these annual tree rings, we have the exact same data,” Fulsig stated.

The black paper had three gradations to it, and there were visible bands where it got darker and darker.

“It turned out just as you said, Ricardo.” Alfina’s pretty eyes opened wide as she looked up at me. Whenever this princess laid bare her emotions, her reactions really became quite innocent.

“A way of measuring ley line activity for several decades in the past... We really did it? Who exactly are you?” Fulsig looked like a child playing with a new toy up until now, but he pointed a sharp gaze towards me in the next instant.

“We were just lucky. Frankly, I didn’t think we would get such clean data. And above all else, this is actually your achievement for being able to identify a clear pattern to predict monster floods to begin with,” I replied with a cramp in my cheek. I couldn’t possibly say I had knowledge from another world. That would be far shadier than a prophecy, wouldn’t it?

That was also my genuine opinion on the matter. This measurement would likely be impossible if the data on the mana wasn’t so cleanly taken. It would probably have taken years of research at minimum to be able to produce such a result.

Also, no matter the theory, it’s just pie in the sky without precise data to back it up. Whether or not it would actually work took constant and steady polishing of techniques and technology to bring it into a tangible state; just like the twenty long years of hard work this man had put in already. And in contrast, the knowledge I have is just borrowed from others.

My consciousness drifted over to the room adjacent to his office. I thought back to the libraries of the other world, which contained several hundreds, thousands, and when you include the computers, millions upon billions times more knowledge than that room possibly could. What I have in my mind is just a tiny portion of that, and my understanding of said knowledge is shallow compared to any specialist.

Nevertheless, this experiment proved the fact that knowledge in itself is extremely powerful.

“Hmm... Now then, these are the numbers from the east for the last five years, according to the annual tree rings. There’s no major fluctuation. Just from today’s experiment, we can predict that a monster flood will not occur in the east. This, of course, just backs up the data from the observatories when it comes to the eastern region. However...”

Fulsig’s gaze pierced through the bundle in my hand. Yes, in my hands was information yet unknown. It wasn’t just a record of the pattern of mana fluctuations in the west; it had far more serious connotations behind it.

I nodded to Alfina, and she nodded back. I then handed the sample over to Fulsig.

And now it’s finally time for the brass ring. The air in the room felt like it had dropped several degrees. Mia’s expression hadn’t changed at all until now, but a small gulp could be heard from her too.

Fulsig began taking the measurement from the opposite side of the bark, the oldest portion. After finishing, he slowly peeled the manameter paper off the device.

A white pattern appeared on the paper. All of our eyes converged on the paper in a panic. However, even in the portions where we were supposed to start seeing a pattern, the paper was completely white.

And after some point, the pure white band turned completely black. I stared at the paper, but I couldn’t even see the slightest shadow within the band.

My mind went completely blank, as white as the measurement results, in complete contrast to how well things were going until now.

Were there no fluctuations in ley line activity then...? Or did this mean the disaster in the prophecy wasn’t a monster flood? We’d have to move on to the next hypothesis. Or actually, was the prophecy even...

My mind fell into a vortex of doubts.

“How strange. It’s unnatural for there to be no fluctuations at all. Did you really...” Fulsig said as he looked over the measurement device. “Crap! I didn’t reset the sensitivity.”

“Dammit, you old fa— ...Please continue, Director.”

Fulsig scratched his head and readjusted the position of the two spheres, then once more began measuring the annual tree rings we got from Reylia village. He set aside the sample, then peeled off the measurement results. And again, pure white... or wait, it had some faint shadows.

The long white band representing the last thirty years was pretty much uniform, but right at the tip, for a small region, it had something which looked like black stains.

“Looking good, let’s adjust it a bit more.”

Third time’s the charm. Fulsig exhaled and set aside the sample. And what was shown this time was the result we’d hoped for, and yet didn’t want. The measurements from the core of the trunk were completely white. Upon very close inspection, the middle section was just slightly shaded. And just a small distance from the bark... was a single black band. Fulsig lined up the results from the east and west with trembling hands.

In direct comparison, it was clear that the west was far more stable than the east. That is, until five years ago. Four years ago, it showed a slight peak. For the next two years, it decayed. And one year ago, it was completely white again. Of course, the data for this year was incomplete. But from what we could see, there was no shadow at all.

The four of us all gulped at once.

“We have to readjust the standard for this level of sensitivity... but there’s no need to even quantify this, is there? The omen is right there. It’s likely that this year...” Fulsig said in a heavy tone.

It felt like the candlelight swayed, despite there being no wind.

“...A great disaster will befall the west, the outbreak of a monster flood.” I voiced our conclusion.

Our exaltation over the success of the experiment lasted for only an instant. The two girls remained silent. One of them now knew of the disaster that threatened her home, and the other was shown proof that the terrifying scene she saw would become reality.

From the decades of records accumulated in that tree, to the plain grayscale pattern projected from that thin bored rod, and from that vague and mystical image to clear numbers. That was the moment the prophecy became a forecast.