Chapter 3: Prophecy of Disaster

“Whoa.” I shuffled over to the side in a fluster to make way for a man trying to pass me from behind on the road. “The foot traffic here is amazing, huh.”

“Well, this is a once-annual festival.”

With the arrival of spring break, Mia and I spent our days dealing with the large amount of work that had piled up for the company. And as for why we were currently spending our paltry spare time walking through the jam-packed streets of the capital? Well, there was a reason for that.

“So, the leading actress of the festival is our little princess?”

“It is the duty of the Oracle Princess to announce the prophecy for the coming year, after all.”

“A prophecy, huh...” I sighed cynically at the unrealistic term.

“Sir.”

“I know. We don’t have any idea who could be listening. At any rate, we still need more information.”

We headed towards the central street and the royal palace came into sight. The main gates, normally shut tight, were now open. They obviously hadn’t been opened so people could go sightseeing inside and visit the royal family or anything, though.

The palace grounds had a circular altar set up within its center, and stair-like seats were installed, forming a semicircle behind it. A group of luxuriously dressed men began lining up at the bottom of the seats. These were the honorary nobles, the representatives of each guild.

“Dreyfan...” I recognized a man with a plump physique standing in the center of the honorary nobles and grimaced. Unlike his son, this man was a clear enemy of mine.

“There you are. Mia! Over here... ugh, Weinder.” I heard a familiar voice drawing nearer to us. This girl, her orange hair tied to the side with a white oval barrette, made a sour face upon spotting me next to Mia.

I think her name is Lilka. Next to her was a freckled girl with green hair, the schoolgirl who was staring wide-eyed at my exchange with Dreyfan and Rowan in front of the library the other day.

Both of them were daughters of medium-sized companies here in the capital, or so-called silver companies. Our company was considered a copper company, incidentally. And Dreyfan was obviously a gold one.

By commoner standards, these two could be considered fairly rich girls who were still quite sociable. Well, at least to Mia. To Lilka, I was just a hopeless, overreaching idiot who was rebelling against the Dreyfans and putting Mia in danger as a result.

“Go on.” I urged Mia towards them. Being hated was a trivial problem if it meant having Mia as my ally.

She stared at me apprehensively, but was pulled away by the hand by her best friend. Incidentally, the customer base I was hoping to target with my copper honey was people like those two girls’ parents. If silver companies like theirs could incorporate our goods into creating new products, we’d be able to secure an unparalleled market.

“Although, that’s kind of in the way of getting things done.”

After the noisy girls left, I looked back at the palace. This country, the Kingdom of Crownheight, was an affluent agrarian nation. The climate was stable, and the terrain was even. The last foreign war took place around forty years ago. Even going over historical records, there were no instances of large-scale disasters like earthquakes or floods. Furthermore, the last ten years had seen abundant harvests.

The merchants around me all looked cheerful. This only stood to reason, seeing that both food and stability were guaranteed.

However, I saw things differently. It was a waste to have such perfect conditions with no signs being shown of economic growth. At least judging from what I could see in the farming village of Reylia, the productivity of agriculture had only gone up by just a smidgen. You could say this was a so-called golden age. There was no guarantee it would continue forever, and there was historical precedence for the end of such an age leading to stagnation.

And there was no better example than the visualization of this country’s rigid order right before my eyes. The nobles and royalty monopolized political and military authority, while the commoners mostly all pursued agriculture. That was the basic structure. One’s social status was practically fixed, and within each class there was an even more detailed hierarchy. For example, the differentiation between gold, silver, and copper companies. It was a structure that prioritizes stability above all else. Or perhaps it was better to say that the rule over the country was stable.

As a former Japanese citizen my senses were somewhat dulled, but maintaining order was definitely not always the correct course of action. Even with all that scientific technology, especially with the means of transmitting information about systems of government and their effects on society at their full disposal, there were plenty of examples of countries that were incapable of keeping a minimum level of order.

Here in this world, knowledge and technology were passed along by hearsay, and the spread of information was devastatingly slow. The emphasis on regional bloodlines was fairly inevitable to an extent. Even though the harvests had been abundant, one small failure could cause starvation in a region. And thinking of it from that perspective, the risk didn’t seem worth it.

In other words, it’d be problematic if neither politics nor production were stable. Though it’d be far worse if society were hinged on the idea of “might makes right.” Like the way the Shogun took over during the Edo period, and how it led to a decisive battle. Still, that’s precisely why they should be a little more flexible, at least when it comes to trade activities. It’s the duty of a merchant to take on risks, after all.

A stable chain of supply and demand ties together a manufacturer and their consumers. For example, the risk known as a stockpile serves as a buffer in the event of a sharp increase in demand. To take things a little further, information about supply and demand is channeled between the two, and new goods and marketplaces are pioneered to satisfy them. That in itself obviously has value, but the diversification of the flow of wealth also gives birth to stability.

And as stability increases, the whole of society changes, grows and gives birth to a margin of flexibility. This is economic growth. In short, it’s the role of a merchant to take risks in order to create stability. If they didn’t do so, there would be no reason for a merchant who doesn’t create anything on their own to chase the wealth of anything beyond a small-time feudal lord.

However, to be able to handle risk, merchants must have the freedom to move around at will, and the ability to quickly react to the flow of information. But there’s something standing in the way of those requirements for the sake of maintaining hierarchy.

I took another look at the representatives of each guild wearing their fancy and luxurious clothing. Culinary, Carriage, and Caravan. In the other world, these would be the foodstuff, vehicular, and transportation industries. The fancy CEOs with their popped collars practically looked like nobles.

It was an honorary rank that was only appointed once a generation. The king made such appointments, and doing so required the referral of a grand noble who held interest in the relevant guild. Once the company was passed down to the eldest son, the rank was largely appointed to them immediately, so it was almost entirely hereditary.

By all rights, an honorary rank was supposed to be a system to spur the merchant commoners to come to a mutual understanding with political forces. However, as the current status quo repeated over many years, it produced a nightmarish system where the top of each enterprise acted as their own agents in a completely hierarchical order.

The potbellied Dreyfan glared at me from the lower steps. I really wanted to tell him to take some risks, with all of his political pull and connections. If he could make a profit off of it, it’d definitely increase the size of the pie for everyone.

And if you aren’t capable of doing that, Dreyfan, then you can just sit there and do nothing. Just don’t get in my way. Don’t go using your stupid position to keep the little guys down.

In an exaggerated sense, you could say he was my mortal enemy. Not because I detested him; it was more serious than that. To him, people like me were unwanted in the status quo that he desired to maintain. There was no place for my ambition here.

Frankly speaking, he wasn’t wrong. It’s the fundamental desire of any living being to crave stability. And from his position, his actions were probably a matter of course. However, my goal wasn’t wrong either. I was simply doing what was a matter of course for me.

It might just sound like sour grapes now, but in the future, I planned to bend the commercial structure of this country to my will. In the terms of the other world, I was looking to establish something like a general trading company.

The bigwig merchants before my eyes were the so-called monopolistic trading firms of the business world. It was stable in the sense that they controlled the flow of people, goods, and money, but it obstructed exchange on a larger scale. Which means, all I needed to do was spur on the exchange of people, goods, and money in a way that could bridge this business world.

The general trading company was the catalyst for that to happen. If I could accomplish that, commercial activity would become the engine to drive economic growth. It was, of course, unreasonable to try and precisely recreate a general trading company from Earth.

At most, I just needed to create something which could satisfy similar “functions” in this current “society and environment.” And frankly, I hadn’t been able to form a clear picture of what I was aiming for yet.

When I explained the rough outline of my plan to Mia, she commented, “I see, so you plan on creating a country.” What an outrageous thing to say. Though, it was hard to ignore the fact that the financial scale of a general trading company in the other world could surpass the scale of some countries. I would prefer to keep my nose out of such troublesome politics as much as possible, though.

Back on topic, the seats around the altar began to fill from the bottom up. Eventually, the second row from the top filled in—with the grand nobles.

Sitting at the center was an old man, flanked by a woman on his left and another man somewhere in his fifties on the right. Those are the present heads of their respective families, right? It was unusual for a woman to serve as the head. And seeing that they were on the highest steps for nobles, they would be the highest-ranking nobles. Perhaps that woman would be the aunt the princess spoke of, Archduchess Berthold.

That would make the old man in the center the prime minister, Duke Grinicius. And the other man would be the feudal lord of the largest city in the eastern region, Archduke Kurtheight. Even I’d heard that the rulers of the eastern and western regions didn’t seem to get along very well.

Now that all the retainers were in place, it was time for the house which sat on the highest seats to show up. Sitting in the center was the king, with a golden crown atop his head and a ruby encrusted scepter in his hand. Around him were two young men in their adult years, presumably the princes. Hm? The seat to the left of the king was empty. I think the left seat is supposed to be the most important one, where his heir, the crown prince, would sit.

The seat to his right was occupied by a slender young man in robes. One space further to his left was a muscular young man in military attire. Aside from the crest of a blue rose embroidered into their clothing, the crest of the royal family, these two couldn’t be any more different.

“So, where’s our little princess, then?”

I looked around to try and find my classmate. A little further from the men of the royal family, I spotted the queen and three princesses all wearing extravagant dresses, but she wasn’t among them. And as I was looking around restlessly for her, the festival began.

The king, seated atop the highest step, took out a cylindrical roll of paper and handed it to the prime minister a step below him. The prime minister accepted it with both hands, rolled open the paper, and presented it before the crowd. Of course, nobody was close enough to be able to read from it.

“Citizens of the Kingdom,” so his speech began. The old man’s voice carried well, and seemed to be amplified by some sort of magical device. None of the content of his speech was interesting in the least. In short, all he really said was “God blessed us with an abundant harvest last year.” Specifically, the eastern region’s harvest had been bountiful, and the western region’s harvest was just kind of good.

The nobles and VIPs to the front, Dreyfan included, were all leaning forwards and listening obediently. The crowd outside the gate, on the other hand, wasn’t really reacting.

I stifled a yawn and looked to the sides. The little princess had yet to make an appearance. And then, they brought a chair out to the altar; a simple wooden chair.

The prime minister’s speech ended, and a girl wearing religious garb stepped up. They were purple vestments without a single ornament to them, a stark contrast to the gaudy clothes covered in jewels and embroidery of those in attendance. But on the contrary, this only supported her neat and tidy beauty.

Even from far away, her platinum hair appeared lustrous. Her facial features betrayed just a hint of her childishness, and her body drew slender lines, meager as they were in any sort of voluptuousness. She was like a life-sized figure of a saint, or perhaps even more beautiful than that. She was irrefutably cuter than the second or third or whatever princesses who were all dressed up.

Is the simplicity of her chair and clothes supposed to be a presentation of her status as a member of the clergy? The other members of the church standing by the altar were all wearing flashy vestments, but perhaps it was a public face they put forward precisely because she was royalty.

The one I came for was finally taking the stage, but as for what she was doing there...

“The Oracle Princess Alfina will now announce this year’s prophecy,” the prime minister declared, and Alfina stood to her feet.

“The land will once more bring us blessings this year. Particularly in the west—” Her transparent voice resounded throughout the grounds. The gazes of all the masses converged on the sixteen-year-old girl. They were far more honest than the VIPs sitting on that tiered gallery of theirs. She gathered way more attention than even the prime minister did.

Even if the same farce was playing out here, changing the cast to a beautiful girl was far more picturesque. But in truth, isn’t a prophecy just the very height of farce? I couldn’t deny it entirely because of the existence of a “physical law” known as mana that didn’t exist back on Earth, but what I was seeing right now was merely ceremonial.

From my investigation, the contents of the speech barely changed from year to year. They were largely made to match the current crop conditions across this agrarian nation. Moreover, with the kind of stable weather this country had, it never really changed.

The king’s words were “last year was a good year,” and the prophecy stated “next year will also be a good year.” That was all there was to it.

Actually, if the prophecies were truly real, there’s no way they would be announcing them publicly. Just what would happen if they went around saying the country was doomed to fall, or that a war would break out? Anybody could answer that.

In fact, unlike the masses who were charmed by Alfina’s beauty, the ones seated at the front had no sense of their earlier tension during the prime minister’s speech. Dreyfan looked to be just pretending to listen.

Both he and I were incapable of turning this prophecy nonsense into profit. What mattered was practical data. If the prophecies really were true, I’d prefer statistics on precipitation and actual crop yields.

“And in the east—” My classmate continued her prophecy-like vague statements, fulfilling her role as the Oracle Princess. In short, the east would have an average harvest, and the west would be somewhat abundant.

The masses were naturally swept up by the atmosphere. A beautiful girl was here telling them that the good days were to continue on this festive day. If not for my occupation I wouldn’t be thinking these insensitive thoughts either. I did think she was doing a good job in fulfilling her duty.

After bringing news that the coming year would be bright, Alfina stopped speaking. It seemed her job was now finished. The masses stood at the ready to cheer in joy. All that was left was to bring out the wine, close the palace gates, and let the festival begin in full force.

I needed to give some applause myself. Even if it was none of her business, she did praise our company’s honey. It was fine for me to at least praise her work. Not getting any sort of beneficial information here was well within my range of expectations.

And as I prepared to clap, the Oracle Princess looked straight ahead with sorrowful eyes. Her mystical saint-like air, or more bluntly, the fabricated front she created, had crumbled. She took a single step forward, tightly shut her eyes for a moment, and when she opened them once more...

“Please listen to me.” Unlike her transparent tone from before, a voice of desperation now resounded throughout the grounds. “The crystal informed me of one other future event... This year, a great disaster shall befall the Kingdom from the west.”

The masses looked around in bewilderment. Some of them had already begun clapping, and awkwardly came to a stop.

“Whoa... should she really be saying that?”

Even being incapable of reading the atmosphere as I was, I could hear the very air in the entire area freeze up. The VIPs atop the tiered gallery were all clearly perturbed. The nobles’ faces were contorting, and the robed prince, along with the third princess, were both glaring at Alfina hatefully.

The king didn’t have any substantial reaction, but the smile he’d worn up to this moment was gone, and he had the expression of a god of wrath. Perhaps because of the religious meaning behind her words, or definitely because of it, there was no way they didn’t verify the contents of her speech before the official announcement.

That meant that her statement was not part of the plan for this state-held event. My classmate standing on the stage had both her hands held up to her chest in prayer as she endured the gazes of all those around her.

She looked like she was silently concentrating, as if she believed without a shadow of doubt that her words rang true, but...

“A disaster?”

“To the west...?”

The murmuring of the masses grew louder. Just as expected, her words had the opposite desired effect. After all, she’d just passed down an ominous future with zero concrete details. One could say it was the worst way possible to announce this information.

This was tremendously bad for the superstitious masses, who didn’t believe it all to be a farce from the very beginning the way I did. At this rate, the uproar would just grow and grow.

The royal guards, dressed up in decorated armor, drew closer to Alfina. The prime minister got to his feet. The archduchess next to him headed towards Alfina as well. Alfina appeared to be resisting them at first, but the archduchess somehow got her to give up, and she drooped her shoulders.

“Even if a disaster is to befall us, the Kingdom shall overcome it, and protect our peace and prosperity. Just as we always have.” The prime minister addressed the masses, and the VIPs on the tiered gallery began clapping at once. The knights surrounding them all broke into a chant of “All hail the King!”

A step later, the masses outside the palace gates began clapping energetically. The palace attendants began carrying out the wine for celebration. Cheers of joy broke out, and the clapping grew even louder.

I thought back to encountering her in the library. She was elegant, gentle, and so reserved that one would never believe she was royalty. She didn’t seem like the type to take part in such showboating to me...

No, thinking of it carefully, that competition was also showboating. I didn’t understand at all why she did it, but what did I know about her inner thoughts? What people’s actions show on the surface is clearly more important.

“So she really is dangerous to deal with...” I turned my back on the masses swarming together to receive wine, and let out a sigh.

The words “to the west” worried me somewhat, as someone whose production area was located in the western region of the Kingdom, but there was no point in taking notice of a prophecy with no proof to go on.

“Anyway, we should keep our distance.”

She was already volatile enough to send someone like me flying away with ease. And now, she had become even more dangerous.

I turned back to look at her just once more. The palace gates were closing, as if to seal away a troublesome matter, and through the last crevice of the gates before they closed, I spotted the crestfallen girl descending from the altar, escorted by the archduchess.